Sunday, July 26, 2009

ESPN SportsNation: polling for fun if not for facts

READ STORY HERE
The intrigue and influence associated with opinion polling is not lost on the folks at ESPN – the worldwide leader in sports.

ESPN has been virtually bombarding webpage visitors with splashy, albeit highly unscientific poll questions for years now. Using the “Sports Nation” moniker to classify the range of opinions from fans across the country the ESPN Empire has adapted a new show based on the results to their varying poll questions. The show is hosted by television personality Michelle Beadle and ESPN satellite radio host Colin Cowherd.

Looking to create a show that is primarily the product of the fans, those who tune in not only can vote on poll questions but also propose topics through phone calls, email or Twitter. Taking a look at the SportsNation homepage you’ll see topics ranging from Michael Vick’s suspension and Tim Tebow’s celibacy to fan blogs, videos, reporting and of course poll questions.

Many web publications have inserted poll questionnaires in the past, often referred to as straw polls. ESPN took things a step further however by associating a map layout of the United States to show not only how many of the votes were going to a particular response, but in which states topics and answers were getting the most play. Consider it ESPN’s virtual electoral map of sorts.

It’s fun, it’s flashy and it’s interactive. It’s also as previously stated, highly unscientific. First off according to ESPN.com’s very own press kit 94% of its registered users are male. While its probably unfair to assume that the percentage off all ESPN.com visitors are also male by at such a high clip, it’s equally far fetched to believe that female sports fans by the numbers are being equally represented by SportsNation.

ESPN online polls do not weigh their samples either meaning the series of important demographic and ideological factors obtained by responsible scientific polls are tossed out the window. Thirdly there are unbalanced sample sizes from state-to-state and a varying number of total responses from one poll to the next. More general questions from popular sports such as, “Which team do you think will win the Super Bowl?” will naturally generate more votes than a question on rule changes in professional lacrosse. At the state level more Pennsylvanians for instance are likely to chime in on a topic that includes an athlete or team, say Sydney Crosby or the Eagles, from its own backyard than ones that do not.

It could be said that this is no different of course than the number of those who vote in Presidential elections as opposed to the substantially lesser turnout for midterms.

One question on ESPN’s SportsNation home page asks fans what they think the current state of NASCAR is? Four possible responses (excellent, good, acceptable, troubled) follow an article written about the sport’s lackluster appeal of late. For those undecided or influenced voters the story could create a push-poll tendency that would take an otherwise “acceptable” response to “troubled”, or “excellent” response to merely “good”, and so forth.

The poll had 17,395 responses as of noon this Saturday. By a plurality 47% chose “troubled” as the best way to define the current state of NASCAR racing. 27% were inclined to vote it as being “acceptable”, 19% for “good” and just 7% for “excellent”. While 17,395 appear quite large for a sample, from one state to the next the totals vary considerably. 1,622 Californians voted for instance against just a total of fifteen from the least populated state of Wyoming.

Not surprisingly perceptions of NASCAR generally did best in the Deep South where the sport is most popular. 38% of the 192 voters in Alabama said the sport was in “good” shape – the only state issuing a plurality of positive responses. Northeastern and western states where NASCAR is not generally as popular received harsher treatment by and large with most states having a majority of voters considering it to be “troubled”.

Just as in any poll odd questions will also generate odd responses. Here’s one of nearly 17,000 votes asking SportsNation viewers if they think the Pittsburgh Pirates are “bad” for baseball. Terms like “bad” are incredibly ambiguous for starters and made even more roundabout by the two choices given to online voters. Question one says vote “yes” if you think they aren’t trying to win, whereas question two says vote “no” if you agree they have a plan to build. 54% of responders voted “yes”, but does this mean they really think the Pirates are bad for baseball or that they just agree with the answer selection that the team doesn’t seem to be trying their hardest to win games? Where are those voters who think the Pirates aren't bad for baseball but also aren't really trying to win accounted for?

Fortunately no one with more than a pedestrian understanding of opinion polling is going to place much stock in the straw polls of ESPN or the top-line results from SportsNation. In the meantime the ESPN polls are fun and noteworthy for the massive amount of responses they receive, the state-by-state breakdowns they show and the often-amusing questions they ask. So enjoy, just don’t look into it.

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