READ STORY HERE
There are many ways to analyze voting behavior. Information gathered giving insight to how certain subgroups tend to vote are essential tools for pinpointing support and shaping one’s message in politics. The difficulty for pollsters however is using the data taken from many variables and then creating a well articulated conclusion.
Take the recent 2008 Presidential election for example. What if we were to ask you to try and figure out whom someone you do not know voted for in the last election through a series of ten basic questions and observations regarding their physical, social and ideological makeup?
Meet Jon Gonzalez. Our new friend patiently answered a number of questions that helped us create a solid profile of who he is and what he believes. Here is a list of those ten questions, what Jon answered and the likelihood that he voted for either then Senator Barack Obama or John McCain.
1) Party Identification: Independent (Obama – 54%)
The most clear cut way to figure out how someone likely voted in the 2008 Presidential Election is to simply ask what their party identification is. Around nine of every ten Democrats were loyal to Barack Obama. Ditto that Republican support for John McCain. Unfortunately for the sake of our investigation Jon Gonzalez is a registered Independent. That means he is part of a grouping that favored Obama by a more modest 54-46% margin head-to-head against McCain.
2) Ideology: Moderate (Obama – 58%)
According to exit polls 44% of American voters claimed to be moderates in the last election. Barack Obama won this group by better than twenty percentage points over John McCain. Combined with what Jon told us about his party identification we can now predict with 58% certainty that he voted for Obama.
3) Gender: Male (Obama – 55%)
This places Jon almost perfectly in the middle of voter preference in the last election. Barack Obama won the male vote in 2008 by an extremely narrow 49-48% margin. Jon’s voter preference based now on three variables is for Obama by a 55-45% margin.
4) Race/Ethnicity: Latino (Obama – 59%)
Jon is Latino, a subgroup who voted for Obama nearly 67% of the time. He is also a Latino man a group who supported Obama by 64%. Factoring his race into the equation we are now forced to readjust our gender totals. The likelihood that our friend Jon voted for now President Obama is at a new high of 59% after profile question number four.
5) Residence: Missouri, suburban (Obama – 58%)
Living in one of the most competitive swing-states in the country and one with a very small Latino population it’s hard to tell what effect if any living in the Show Me State had on Jon’s vote. McCain won Missouri by just 4,000 votes and the state’s suburban vote by a narrow 51-48% margin.
6) Income: $62,000 (Obama – 61%)
John McCain by a narrow 49-48% margin took the $50-75K bracket nationwide, but again Latino voters supported Barack Obama with income levels ranging across the board. Although not broken down specifically by which race, some 75% of minority voters making more than $50,000 a year voted for the President.
7) Education: College Graduate (Obama – 62%)
Jon was the first college graduate in his family attending the University of Missouri some years ago. By identical percentages to the over-$50,000 income levels non-white college graduates voted for President Obama by a wide 75-22% margin. With just three questions and categories remaining we now can say Jon was a Barack Obama voter with over 62% confidence.
8) Religion: Evangelical Christian (Obama – 57%)
As is the case with the vast majority of Latinos Jon Gonzalez was born and raised Catholic, a religious block of voters who favored Obama by a 54-45% margin. He is however a particularly religious Catholic going to Church at least once a week, a block that showed preference for McCain 55-43%.
9) Military Status: Served (Obama – 56%)
Jon served in as a U.S. Marine two decades ago. Only 15% of Americans according to CNN exit polls in the last election served in the armed forces but John McCain won this block of voters by ten percentage points. After nine categories the likelihood that Jon voted for Barack Obama still hovers at better than 56%.
10) Most Important Issue: War in Iraq (Obama – 53%)
The last of our ten questions for Jon reveals that the most important issue to him as a former military man is the War in Iraq. 59% of the one in ten voters who listed this as their key issue voted for Barack Obama, but Jon also revealed that he at least somewhat supported the U.S. intervention in Iraq, a solid voting block for McCain by 80%.
In summary, by analyzing the typical American voter such as Jon Gonzalez we can see more clearly how President Obama managed to win the 2008 election. Through a series of questions we can conclude that someone with the voter profile of Jon’s favored Obama 53% of the time. Interestingly this is nearly identical to the 52.9% of the popular vote won by Obama nationwide in the last election.
We do however need to guard against the possibility that polling can never tell us everything we need to know about someone. Ten questions create a healthier assessment than four or five, but even more than twenty would not lead us to certainty. The questions a pollster fails to ask can at times be the most important. Jon Gonzalez while registered as an independent for instance has increasingly displayed Libertarian voting tendencies in recent years. In 2008 he sided with neither Barack Obama nor John McCain but was one of the 11,386 Missourians who voted for Libertarian candidate Bob Barr.
There are many ways to analyze voting behavior. Information gathered giving insight to how certain subgroups tend to vote are essential tools for pinpointing support and shaping one’s message in politics. The difficulty for pollsters however is using the data taken from many variables and then creating a well articulated conclusion.
Take the recent 2008 Presidential election for example. What if we were to ask you to try and figure out whom someone you do not know voted for in the last election through a series of ten basic questions and observations regarding their physical, social and ideological makeup?
Meet Jon Gonzalez. Our new friend patiently answered a number of questions that helped us create a solid profile of who he is and what he believes. Here is a list of those ten questions, what Jon answered and the likelihood that he voted for either then Senator Barack Obama or John McCain.
1) Party Identification: Independent (Obama – 54%)
The most clear cut way to figure out how someone likely voted in the 2008 Presidential Election is to simply ask what their party identification is. Around nine of every ten Democrats were loyal to Barack Obama. Ditto that Republican support for John McCain. Unfortunately for the sake of our investigation Jon Gonzalez is a registered Independent. That means he is part of a grouping that favored Obama by a more modest 54-46% margin head-to-head against McCain.
2) Ideology: Moderate (Obama – 58%)
According to exit polls 44% of American voters claimed to be moderates in the last election. Barack Obama won this group by better than twenty percentage points over John McCain. Combined with what Jon told us about his party identification we can now predict with 58% certainty that he voted for Obama.
3) Gender: Male (Obama – 55%)
This places Jon almost perfectly in the middle of voter preference in the last election. Barack Obama won the male vote in 2008 by an extremely narrow 49-48% margin. Jon’s voter preference based now on three variables is for Obama by a 55-45% margin.
4) Race/Ethnicity: Latino (Obama – 59%)
Jon is Latino, a subgroup who voted for Obama nearly 67% of the time. He is also a Latino man a group who supported Obama by 64%. Factoring his race into the equation we are now forced to readjust our gender totals. The likelihood that our friend Jon voted for now President Obama is at a new high of 59% after profile question number four.
5) Residence: Missouri, suburban (Obama – 58%)
Living in one of the most competitive swing-states in the country and one with a very small Latino population it’s hard to tell what effect if any living in the Show Me State had on Jon’s vote. McCain won Missouri by just 4,000 votes and the state’s suburban vote by a narrow 51-48% margin.
6) Income: $62,000 (Obama – 61%)
John McCain by a narrow 49-48% margin took the $50-75K bracket nationwide, but again Latino voters supported Barack Obama with income levels ranging across the board. Although not broken down specifically by which race, some 75% of minority voters making more than $50,000 a year voted for the President.
7) Education: College Graduate (Obama – 62%)
Jon was the first college graduate in his family attending the University of Missouri some years ago. By identical percentages to the over-$50,000 income levels non-white college graduates voted for President Obama by a wide 75-22% margin. With just three questions and categories remaining we now can say Jon was a Barack Obama voter with over 62% confidence.
8) Religion: Evangelical Christian (Obama – 57%)
As is the case with the vast majority of Latinos Jon Gonzalez was born and raised Catholic, a religious block of voters who favored Obama by a 54-45% margin. He is however a particularly religious Catholic going to Church at least once a week, a block that showed preference for McCain 55-43%.
9) Military Status: Served (Obama – 56%)
Jon served in as a U.S. Marine two decades ago. Only 15% of Americans according to CNN exit polls in the last election served in the armed forces but John McCain won this block of voters by ten percentage points. After nine categories the likelihood that Jon voted for Barack Obama still hovers at better than 56%.
10) Most Important Issue: War in Iraq (Obama – 53%)
The last of our ten questions for Jon reveals that the most important issue to him as a former military man is the War in Iraq. 59% of the one in ten voters who listed this as their key issue voted for Barack Obama, but Jon also revealed that he at least somewhat supported the U.S. intervention in Iraq, a solid voting block for McCain by 80%.
In summary, by analyzing the typical American voter such as Jon Gonzalez we can see more clearly how President Obama managed to win the 2008 election. Through a series of questions we can conclude that someone with the voter profile of Jon’s favored Obama 53% of the time. Interestingly this is nearly identical to the 52.9% of the popular vote won by Obama nationwide in the last election.
We do however need to guard against the possibility that polling can never tell us everything we need to know about someone. Ten questions create a healthier assessment than four or five, but even more than twenty would not lead us to certainty. The questions a pollster fails to ask can at times be the most important. Jon Gonzalez while registered as an independent for instance has increasingly displayed Libertarian voting tendencies in recent years. In 2008 he sided with neither Barack Obama nor John McCain but was one of the 11,386 Missourians who voted for Libertarian candidate Bob Barr.
No comments:
Post a Comment