Poll: Support for Sotomayor holds steady as Senate hearing commence

READ STORY HERE

The Sotomayor hearings have commenced and it appears likely that they will result in the confirmation of the Hispanic Supreme Court Justice.

Seeking to become the 111th person to sit on the bench of our nation’s highest court Judge Sonia Sotomayor spent Monday in Senate room hearings. Beginning with praising remarks from Judiciary Chairman Patrick Leahy (D-VT), Sotomayor was the subject of a spirited and mostly civil ideological debate between Democrats and Republicans.

The confirmation of the Bronx, NY native as a woman and first Hispanic Judge would mark a groundbreaking moment. It would also be spun as an important victory for President Obama who needs a rebound on the domestic front. This coming after the mostly gloomy economic news and his slowly eroding approval ratings which dominated headlines in June and early-July.

Despite some growing opposition from Republicans and conservative groups and the overruling of her decision by the Supreme Court in the New Haven firefighters case, the views of most Americans remain positive and mostly unchanged from May. According to a just released Gallup survey 53% of voters would like to see the Senate vote in favor of her confirmation to the federal bench. That’s down just a single point since her name first became known in late-May and favorably balanced against just 33% of responders who prefer a “nay” vote.

Rasmussen Reports find that 84% of Americans expect Sotomayor to win confirmation. Overwhelming numbers such as this create an air of inevitability surrounding the process and may make it difficult for outnumbered Senate Republicans to effectively keep her from being confirmed. More numbers from Rasmussen suggest that while 45% of voters believe the most important Supreme Court consideration is the nominee’s legal background and competence, a solid minority (27%) think the court should represent the “diversity” of America. Furthermore 23% “think the nominee’s views on important issues should be the priority.”

Gallup meanwhile indicated that Sotomayor’s favorability ratings stand at 38%, with 26% unfavorable and 17% who remain unsure. This is down from 43% favorability in May, up from 21% unfavorable, and down from 21% who were unsure. Rather absurdly meanwhile the Gallup poll found that more adults (19%) have not heard of the Judge in July than in their previous survey in May (15%).

CBS numbers asking slightly different poll questions find that many Americans (39%) have not heard about Sotomayor or are undecided (23%) about their opinions of the Judge. Still by a 30-14% voters are in favor of her confirmation, with a large 52% still suggesting that they “can’t say” with confidence one way or the other.

Returning once more to the Gallup survey we find some interesting numbers that in conjunction with the Democratic Party’s 60-40 Senate seat advantage seem to point to the likelihood that she will be confirmed. Independent support of Sotomayor’s confirmation remains relatively steady between two polls taken in May and July. Support from Democrats has dropped slightly from a 76-6% favorable-unfavorable margin to a 72-15% split. Interestingly enough Gallup finds that in spite of general opposition from Republicans, her favorability has actually improved amongst the party’s voters. Opposition within the GOP holds steady at 57% but those now in favor of a “yay” vote have increased five points to 29% since the May poll.

Poll: Attacks on Sotomayor may result in only minimal damage for GOP with Hispanics

Read Story Here

A host of new polling data compliments of Quinnipiac University paints an interesting picture on the topic of the GOP's standing with the Hispanic community.

While high court partisan drama is a typically part of the political process, the Sonia Sotomayor nomination is being treated as something more than the standard party and presidential barometer. President Obama's desire to place the first Hispanic judge on the Supreme Court is notable in a history making sense just as it seems noticeable in subtle demographic positioning. Many pundits have suggested that attacks levied by the GOP could further erode the party's support with the key group of Hispanic voters.

Not a rosy outlook to be certain for a party in need of win. The question is now whether the facts back up the gossip. According to at least one polling outlet the answer is probably no.

Respected pollsters like Quinnipiac, Gallup, Associated Press and USA Today amongst others have Judge Sotomayor's approvals pegged in the mid to upper-50 percentiles. But it's a deeper look into the Quinnipiac numbers in particular that could spell some measure of relief for the Republican Party. According to a recent poll Sotomayor's overall approval of 55% is, surely to the surprise of many, just three percentage points lower than her support within the Hispanic community.

The poll finds that sub-groupings such as African-Americans (85%) and women overall (60%) rate the judge higher than her own ethnic community. Data such as this hints at the possibility that the GOP may not be risking as much with a full out attack on President Obama's nominee as previously believed.

Of course a swift confirmation process is a political victory for any President, but placing Sotomayor on the bench may not have the sort of positive residual effects many Democrats may have been searching for. One particularly interesting poll question by Quinnipiac to its nearly 3,100 responders asked whether it be important for the body of the Supreme Court to “better reflect” that of the country as a whole. This question was in terms of race, ethnicity, gender and religion as compared to a judge's legal qualifications. Only 8% found it to be a more important aspect to the makeup of the bench against 57% who found it less important than individual merit. Nearly a one to seven ratio.

Such findings go hand in hand with the concept that racial biases for and against candidates of high positions in government are, quite possibly, beginning to fade in terms of relevance. Its worth mentioning that Sotomayor enjoys nearly identical support at this point in her confirmation process as that of the average combined ratings of the last four confirmed Supreme Court nominees; Clarence Thomas, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, John Roberts and Samuel Alito.

Perhaps as the Huffington Post points out, Sotomayor's clout and vulnerabilities as a candidate rest much more so in her political ideology than her ethnicity. Hispanics as a whole lean towards the Democratic Party but it's questionable to what extent they are liberal socially.

When asked whether Sotomayor "is more liberal than you would like" for a Supreme
Court justice, a quarter of Hispanic respondents responded, "yes." Only 11% said
that Sotomayor is "not liberal enough," while 46% said that her position on the
political spectrum is "about right." - Sam Stein / Huffington Post

Still it remains unsurprising that the Hispanic/Latino block of voters is so targeted. Major net gains by either party with this ever-growing group in the future could go a long way in deciding elections. That a popular Hispanic judge makes history by getting named to the Supreme Court however brings into question whether the political needle shifts anymore to the left.

Latino's at present make up roughly 9% of the voting pool. It's obvious that Republicans still reeling from crushing defeats in November and the 2006 congressional elections have lost considerable support with that group. Barack Obama won 67% of the Latino vote in 2008 up fourteen points from John Kerry's showing as the Democratic Presidential nominee four years earlier.

President Obama netted somewhere between 1.5 - 2 percentage points nationally from that increase in Latino support alone. Had Kerry done as well with Latino’s as Obama he may have been elected President. Such a swing is perhaps critical to the Democrats chances of winning not only close future elections on a national level but also within key swing-states.

Here in Pennsylvania President Obama by a margin of 72-28% took Latino vote in the last election. The Keystone State still garners battleground status in elections. With its relatively small number of Latinos however there may not be much more ground the Democrats can pick up. Ditto similarly important swing-states such as Ohio and Virginia where the figures for Latino voters do not top 5%.

All eyes then focus on Florida and the Sunbelt region where the GOP lost considerable ground in 2008. The more modest 57-42% margin of victory for Obama in Florida amongst a large number (14%) of Latino voters could keep the Sunshine State in the blue column for years to come. This in the event of an increase of Democratic support within the Hispanics community. The President's overall margin of victory here was by less than three-points, but the latest poll numbers involving Judge Sotomayor do not point towards a bump for the Dems in Florida or much of anywhere else.

Sonia Sotomayor has an opportunity to make history. But whether she will change the future in a positive way for Hispanics in the Democratic Party is highly questionable.

Affirmative Action debate heats up - where does public opinion rest?

Read Story Here

The debate surrounding affirmative action is back in the spotlight.

Brought on in part on by a narrow 5-4 decision yesterday the Supreme Court found that white firefighters were unfairly denied promotion by the city of New Haven Connecticut. Voting down ideological lines the decision overturned the scrapping of successful test scores from seventeen white and two Hispanic firefighters likely to have been promoted based on their results.

With Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor’s recent comments about her being a “perfect affirmative action baby” a whole new round of discussion on the issue begins. Sotomayor represents a perfect case study on the topic of affirmative action – a high profile lightning rod of attention.

On one hand the Judge’s bluntness regarding her “highly questionable” acceptance to an Ivy League school, suggesting that her test scores were “not comparable to that of my colleagues at Princeton and Yale.” On the other hand her meteoric rise from humble beginnings in the Latino community to the brink of a Senate confirmation as the first Hispanic Supreme Court Justice could help strengthen the argument for such minority advancement programs.

Further stirring the debate pot is Sotomayor’s support for the dismissal of aforementioned tests where not a single African-American firefighter excelled to the level of promotional consideration. This as 2nd Circuit Court Judge in the Ricci vs. DeStefano case regarding employment discrimination that has been argued by a wide range of voices and is the subject of some controversy.

Fresh in the minds of voters again the debate roars on. By the numbers however it’s difficult to tell exactly where Americans stand on the issue. Polling often renders ambiguous results but the striking divide between the data obtained from certain reputable pollsters brings the following into question; How much are voters opinion shaped by the structure of a poll question, and how likely are results bound to differ depending on who is asking?

According to a CBS / New York Times poll released earlier this month, by a margin of 50-41% responders said they favor programs that make a “special effort” to help minorities get ahead. While around 60% of Republicans oppose such programs, it has the support of two-thirds of Democrats and a nearly even split of independents.

Elaborating on the question however swings, or as some might suggest pushes, the topic to an even higher favorable. NBC / Wall Street Journal asked which statement comes closer to “your” point of view as the poll asked responders the following; “Affirmative action programs are still needed to counteract the effects of discrimination against minorities, and are a good idea as long as there are no rigid quotas.” Or statement (B); “Affirmative action programs have gone too far in favoring minorities, and should be ended because they unfairly discriminate against whites.”

The general tone of a question often has a great deal of impact on the result gathered. A noticeably higher, 63% of responders chose to align with the first statement as opposed to just 28% who considered the second as being closer to their point of view. Digging deeper however the gap between those who feel strongly about their position on the issue shows affirmative action favorability winning over a more modest 37-20% gap. A whopping 43% said the issue was not of major interest or concern to them suggesting a vast middle ground where their opinions could be swayed.

Last month an AP-GFK poll found a seven-point gap between the results of a question asking the support of or opposition to affirmative action programs. For racial and ethnic minorities there was a 56-36% favorability gap, but in regards to women the numbers widened to 63-29%. These numbers for women are virtually identical to the overall numbers shown by NBC / Wall Street Journal who did not ask a similar question in their poll.

Throwing a wrench into the works are the latest results from a Quinnipiac University poll released earlier this month. Widely disagreeing with Judge Sotomayor’s ruling in the New Haven firefighters case Quinnipiac also finds that by a 55-36% margin American voters actually favor the abolishing of affirmative action.

How in the world do we get such divergent numbers here?

Certainly the good people at Quinnipiac have shown themselves to be dependable pollsters in the past and with a large sample of nearly 3,100 registered voters it would seem difficult to pass off the results as incredulous or an outlier. The party identification balance is similar to that of other well regarded publications like Rasmussen. Furthermore the question itself does not emit the stench of classic “push poll” tendencies. Take a look at the wording, it doesn’t seem at odds with the NBC / Journal poll that never the less scores far higher favorability ratings; "Do you think affirmative action programs that give preferences to blacks and other minorities in hiring, promotions and college admissions should be continued, or do you think these affirmative action programs should be abolished?"

Even assistance director Peter Brown does not seem in any way miffed by the results that stand in such contrast with the data captured by other polls.

Whether it's a belief that the statute of limitations on past wrongs has run out
or economic pressures on workers, programs that supporters call affirmative
action and opponents label racial preferences are unpopular with most American
voters. -- Peter Brown / Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Digging deeper however we find some contradictory results within the data of the poll. Question fourteen asks the following; Which comes closer to your point of view regarding affirmative action programs in the work place - A) We should have affirmative action programs to overcome past discrimination, B) We should have affirmative action programs to increase diversity or C) We should not have affirmative action programs?”

In this instance Quinnipiac’s results are far more balanced. 20% sided with answer “A” to the question above, whereas an additional 27% agreed with choice “B” and only 47% agreed that we should not have affirmative action programs at all. This means that overall there was a perfectly even 47-47% balance of those favoring some sort of affirmative action function in the work place to those opposed to either or any implementation. Now we move a bit closer to the top-line results of other polls that show high favorability ratings for affirmative action programs.

Americans have shown sensitivity to issues of minority advancement but where they stand in their beliefs is highly influenced by the wording and tone of the question they are asked. It’s difficult to tell exactly what voters’ think about affirmative action based on the data of certain polls that stand in such stark contrast with one another. Never the less polling will continue to play a factor in shaping the discussion on the issue, and with it back in the headlines as a major topic the debate rolls on.