Analysis: Obama's approval rating, who has it right?

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Fox News made some waves this morning when it released the results of a survey showing President Obama’s approval rating had dropped to a new low.

According to their polling Obama has cratered well below the 50% threshold, standing now at an even 46-46% approval to disapproval margin. That represents a drop from the 50-41% rating split the President received from the previous Fox poll released three weeks ago. Most polls are subject to some varying form of discrepancy and error. Efficient polling is not an easy task to undertake. Yet with a media and public perception so driven by the effects of numbers it is important to get an understanding of how those numbers are being gathered.

One big thing stands out about the Fox News poll when measuring the validity of these most recent figures is the sudden and dramatic drop of support from independents. While it’s typical for political independents to sway more rapidly in their level of support than the more locked in Democrat and Republican blocks Fox shows a highly volatile group of voters.

In August President Obama’s approval rating among independents stood at a 49-44% approval to disapproval margin. Two polls conducted in September showed his totals ranging from 51-42% to 46-41%. Then Obama cratered in early-October, down to a 42-47% split only to rebound considerably late in the month to 49-34%. Suddenly the President’s numbers have plummeted again, down a startling sixteen-points to his current 34-51% standing in just three weeks. What gives here?

Considering that the approval ratings given from Democrats and Republicans in the poll have remained almost identical from late-October could we expect another jump in independent support for Obama next month? If so it’s very likely the President will go back over the 50% threshold, but is this all a true reflection of what the electorate thinks of the President's job performance?

While having little impact on the results from this poll Fox is also somewhat notorious for gathering a higher percentage of Republican voters and a far lower percentage of self-describe independents than what are generally agreed upon to be their national totals. Although the poll was conducted from 900-registered voters the fairly high +/- 6% margin of error between political groupings brings that total down to 844-responders. 40.5% claimed to affiliate as Democrats, 38.4% Republicans and 21.1% independents. However Rasmussen Reports who studies partisan trends each month and works in affiliation with Fox concludes the current party balance is 37.8% Democrat, 31.9% Republican and 30.3% independent.

Fox’s low score for President Obama is balanced against the opposite extreme by a recent survey from ABC News/Washington Post. Showing remarkable consistency over the past three months the President’s approval rating in this poll stands at 56% with a disapproval of 42%. Sadly unlike Fox the ABC poll does not offer us any data on how each political group responded to their questions. That the ABC poll also uses random sampling and pulls their data from 1,001 “adults” instead of “registered” or “likely voters gives is some insight as to why there is such a large ten-point gap between the two aforementioned polls.

The tendency is for a higher percentage of Republicans to vote and be registered to do so. This means a sampling of all adults would favor President Obama and Democrats in general as those who are not voters or enlisted with any party tend to lean to the left. Furthermore the party balance recorded in this poll sends up something of a red flag; 35% Democrat, 21% Republican, 39% independent. Even after leaners are taken into consideration the totals are still 54% Democrat, 38% Republican and 47% independent. The sixteen-point gap between Democrats and Republicans and the nine-point lead independents hold over the GOP are both in all likelihood greatly exaggerated.

Interestingly if we chose to apply the data collected from the Fox News survey on the preference of each political party to this ABC poll the President’s approval rating would only come in at 46%, an identical total between polls. Still the skew in numbers towards those affiliated with the Democratic Party undoubtedly plays a major role in these positive totals for Obama.

So where does the truth lie? As in most cases probably somewhere in the middle. The average of eight major polls, including Fox and ABC, taken this month calculates President Obama’s approval rating at just over 51%. This total is exactly half-way between the 46% recorded by Fox News and the 56% gathered from ABC News/Washington Post.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Pablo Martinez Monsivais