READ FULL STORY HEREPresident Obama’s popularity with the electorate continues to teeter between slightly positive or marginally negative approval ratings. Cumulatively his landmark health care reform bill has attracted a more positive public response since it was passed a week and a half ago, yet it is still viewed negatively by pluralities – sometimes majorities – of Americans.
Turning our attention away from the ongoing health care debate for a moment however some interesting March polling sizes up the President’s chances of reelection. While any polling on a topic that doesn’t come about for another year and half has to be labeled as preliminary, at best, a few surveys have tackled the subject head on.
Obama’s challenging first fourteen months in office is reflected in a recent CNN / Opinion Research poll. 935-registered voters nationwide were asked who they would vote for if the upcoming 2012 election were being held today. President Obama attracted 47% of the vote with a generic Republican candidate in the slight lead at 48%. Four-percent of Americans claimed to be supporting a candidate from neither major party and in something of surprise almost no one (1%) placed themselves in the undecided column.
A larger poll of 1,907 registered voters conducted by Quinnipiac just prior to the passage of health care legislation found a similar result. 40% favored Obama and 41% a Republican challenger. Allowing for greater nuance the Quinnipiac poll found that 9% of voters would base their decision on the specific Republican candidate and another 9% remain uncertain. One decidedly negative area for the President was the survey response as to whether Obama deserves to be reelected. Just 40% say he deserves to remain in office past 2012 against 48% who disagree. Another 11% are unsure.
Of course should Obama receive the expected Democratic nomination for President in 2012 he won’t be running against a party but rather a specific candidate. Although none as yet have announced their intentions to run for President there is any number of assumed would-be Republicans setting their sights on the White House. For that research we turn to three polls taken between March 10-20th; Public Policy Polling, Harris Interactive and the Clarus Research Group.
The Clarus Research Group survey of 1,050 registered voters shows the President leading all five prospective GOP candidates and four of the five by comfortable, for now, margins. The exception is against former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney where Obama’s lead is a modest 45-41%. Romney is widely viewed as the current frontrunner in a stable of several legitimate Republican possibilities for 2012. His success in other polling, both against Obama and other GOP candidates, points to this fact. Elsewhere in the Clarus survey however the current President does fairly well. Obama leads former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee 47-39%, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush 49-37% and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich 48-36%. Former Alaskan Governor and 2008 Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin trails Obama by a wide 52-34% margin.
As is usually the case President Obama does best when polling samples are expanded to include all adults. This is the case with the Harris Interactive survey of over 2,300 adults nationwide. Obama leads Mitt Romney by a 46-39% margin in this instance although his lead against Sarah Palin, while still large, is a slightly less commanding 52-35%.
Returning our focus to registered voter sampling the latest from Public Policy Polling has the most negative figures for the President to date. PPP shows Obama tied at 44% with Romney, with a slight lead of 46-44% on Huckabee and a far more modest 49-41% advantage over Palin. Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, who may be viewed as something of a dark horse candidate at this stage, is also included and shown to be trailing the President by a margin of 45-34%. Last month PPP also showed lesser known South Dakota junior Senator John Thune well behind the President to the tune of 46-28%.
Whether or not polling such as this ought to be taken seriously seven months before a crucial midterm and some 31-months prior to the next Presidential election is debatable. With the passage of sweeping health care legislation and immediate public reaction dominating the headlines currently it may also not be the best time to test the waters of a near boiling electorate. Still there are reasons for both comfort and concern for President Obama as the inevitable battle to replace him in 2012 gets underway.
Turning our attention away from the ongoing health care debate for a moment however some interesting March polling sizes up the President’s chances of reelection. While any polling on a topic that doesn’t come about for another year and half has to be labeled as preliminary, at best, a few surveys have tackled the subject head on.
Obama’s challenging first fourteen months in office is reflected in a recent CNN / Opinion Research poll. 935-registered voters nationwide were asked who they would vote for if the upcoming 2012 election were being held today. President Obama attracted 47% of the vote with a generic Republican candidate in the slight lead at 48%. Four-percent of Americans claimed to be supporting a candidate from neither major party and in something of surprise almost no one (1%) placed themselves in the undecided column.
A larger poll of 1,907 registered voters conducted by Quinnipiac just prior to the passage of health care legislation found a similar result. 40% favored Obama and 41% a Republican challenger. Allowing for greater nuance the Quinnipiac poll found that 9% of voters would base their decision on the specific Republican candidate and another 9% remain uncertain. One decidedly negative area for the President was the survey response as to whether Obama deserves to be reelected. Just 40% say he deserves to remain in office past 2012 against 48% who disagree. Another 11% are unsure.
Of course should Obama receive the expected Democratic nomination for President in 2012 he won’t be running against a party but rather a specific candidate. Although none as yet have announced their intentions to run for President there is any number of assumed would-be Republicans setting their sights on the White House. For that research we turn to three polls taken between March 10-20th; Public Policy Polling, Harris Interactive and the Clarus Research Group.
The Clarus Research Group survey of 1,050 registered voters shows the President leading all five prospective GOP candidates and four of the five by comfortable, for now, margins. The exception is against former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney where Obama’s lead is a modest 45-41%. Romney is widely viewed as the current frontrunner in a stable of several legitimate Republican possibilities for 2012. His success in other polling, both against Obama and other GOP candidates, points to this fact. Elsewhere in the Clarus survey however the current President does fairly well. Obama leads former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee 47-39%, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush 49-37% and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich 48-36%. Former Alaskan Governor and 2008 Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin trails Obama by a wide 52-34% margin.
As is usually the case President Obama does best when polling samples are expanded to include all adults. This is the case with the Harris Interactive survey of over 2,300 adults nationwide. Obama leads Mitt Romney by a 46-39% margin in this instance although his lead against Sarah Palin, while still large, is a slightly less commanding 52-35%.
Returning our focus to registered voter sampling the latest from Public Policy Polling has the most negative figures for the President to date. PPP shows Obama tied at 44% with Romney, with a slight lead of 46-44% on Huckabee and a far more modest 49-41% advantage over Palin. Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, who may be viewed as something of a dark horse candidate at this stage, is also included and shown to be trailing the President by a margin of 45-34%. Last month PPP also showed lesser known South Dakota junior Senator John Thune well behind the President to the tune of 46-28%.
Whether or not polling such as this ought to be taken seriously seven months before a crucial midterm and some 31-months prior to the next Presidential election is debatable. With the passage of sweeping health care legislation and immediate public reaction dominating the headlines currently it may also not be the best time to test the waters of a near boiling electorate. Still there are reasons for both comfort and concern for President Obama as the inevitable battle to replace him in 2012 gets underway.
PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / ALEX BRANDON
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