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Americans rarely need a reason or context to get fired up on either side of the abortion debate. The ongoing saga of health care reform however has sparked controversy on the topic yet again and the passage or defeat of the current bill may hinge over the battle of abortion funding.
Gallup decided to take a look at current trends in public opinion on the abortion issue along political and ideological lines. What they have found, to the surprise of few, are increasingly polarized views on the topic between Democrats and Republicans. The study dates back to 1975 just two-years after the landmark Supreme Court decision in the Roe v. Wade case gave constitutional protection to women receiving the abortion procedure.
Support has fluctuated somewhat over the years but recent trends indicate a widening gap between Democrats and Republicans. Three general views being held by the American public can be categorized by those who believe that abortion ought to be legal under “any” circumstance, only in “certain” circumstances, or made illegal in “all” cases.
The "legal under any circumstance" category shows a modest decline in support from Democrats, Republicans and independents alike in recent years. In what may come as a surprise support for legislative protection in all instances was similar between the three political groups over the first two decades. Starting 35-years ago independents (24%) were the most favorable group followed by a virtually even number of Democrats (19%) and Republicans (18%). By 1988 those figures had narrowed to a quarter of independents (25%) and 23% of both of Democrats and Republicans. Two spikes in the early and mid-90s showed independents reaching as high as 37% in favor of abortion protection under any circumstance. Democrats (36%) had risen to nearly equal levels as well but Republican support, after peaking at 34% in 1990, began a steady decline that continues to this day.
As of 2007 Democrats had reached their highest level of support on record (38%), but independents had fallen to 26% and Republicans (13%) had dropped sharply over the previous decade and a half. For 2009 Gallup measures Democratic support for unrestricted abortion at 31%, independent support at 20% and Republicans at record lows of just 12%.
Most Americans continue to take a middle of the road stance on abortion although the description of what that middle of the road entails likely differs between parties. Clearly there is some is vague wording in response to the question of whether an individual supports the right to abortion under “certain” circumstances. For the more conservative, for instance, this might mean illegal in all cases except for rape, incest or the event that having a child puts the mother’s life at risk. For left-leaning Americans however it could allude to a broader acceptance. Perhaps allowing abortion for all adults but forcing minors to seek parental consent or cutting off the legality of the abortion procedure after the second trimester best describes their view.
Still even without a clear definition a closer look at Republican support and opposition to abortion at all three levels points to a dramatic shifts of recent decades. Those preferring abortion to be legal in certain instances is similar today (54%) as it was in 1975 (55%). There has been a bit of a decline tracked by Gallup in that grouping since it peaked at around 65% in 2004 however. As previously mentioned the number of Republicans in favor of allowing abortion under all circumstances is currently at an historic low. Just 12% fit into this category and that is a significant decline in acceptance since the party’s 1990 peak of 29%. Coinciding with this is a measurable increase in the number of GOP affiliates who want the procedure to be illegal in all instances. In 1975 that figure hovered at a modest 25% but by 1992 it had dropped to 13%. Today a record high one-third (33%) of Republicans want abortion outlawed.
Similar totals of Democrats have subscribed to the same view held by Republicans through the years that abortion ought to be legal at least in certain circumstances. Starting at 51% in 1975 that total reached its peak at nearly 60% in the mid to late-90s. Today it hovers at 53%, a slight up tick from its average over the last decade. Those Democrats believing abortion should be legal in all cases started off at nearly equal levels (19%) to those holding that view in the Republican Party (18%). A major increase in that figure occurred over the late-80s and early-90s climbing to around 37% by the middle of the decade. After a sudden drop in the late-90s Democratic support inched upward once again, peaking at 38% as of 2007 before a recent decline has placed it at 31% currently.
Twenty-six percent of Democrats believed abortion should be illegal in all circumstances back in 1975. That total was actually a single percentage-point higher than the number of Republicans claiming the same opinion. The total nevertheless declined steadily over the next two decades, bottoming out at just 9% in 1996. Since that time opposition to the procedure has rebounded somewhat and currently rests at 12%.
As for independents the number of those believing abortion should be illegal has remained fairly steady whereas the number of those favoring its legality in all circumstances has declined in recent decades. The figures have bounced around meanwhile when measuring the number of independents who would prefer the procedure to be legal in certain circumstances.
At 17% the same number of independents favored the outlawing of abortion three and a half decades ago as do now. The numbers in that category have remained steady through the years dropping to a low of 10% in 1990 and peaking at 20% in 2002. In the mid-70s around 55% of independents held the view that abortion ought to be legal in certain circumstances. On two separate occasions in the late-80s and again in the late-90s that figured peaked at around 60%. The lowest total was tracked at 46% in 1995 but the figures have held fairly steady in the 2000s and currently rest at 57%. The least consistent category includes the number of independents who want abortion legal in all instances. Nearly one-quarter (24%) started off with that view in 1975 and it ballooned to 37% in 1990 and again five years later. Peaks and valleys would ensue over the next decade and a half but a recent decline has placed the current total at a record low of 20%.
Overall views on abortion remain impressively stable through the years. Thirty-five years ago 53% of the American public held the dominant position that abortion should be legal under certain circumstances. Today that figure rests at a nearly identical 55%. In 1975 some 23% favored laws that would make abortion illegal in all instances whereas 21% wanted it allowed under any circumstance. As of 2009 those figures hover at 20% and 21% respectively. The only noticeable shakeup in public opinion seemed to have occured over the late-80s to mid-90s. Those favoring the legality of abortion in all instances jumped to around one-third the total population and by 1990 a record low of just 11% of the public wanted the procedure to be made illegal. The levels of full and tentative support and opposition have resettled in the years since however.
While the broader picture shows impressive consistency, measuring trends between political parties is less so. The view of most Democrats on the abortion subject has become more liberalized since the start of the 90s whereas Republicans have predictably become more conservative on the issue. More Republicans, according to Gallup, have held the belief that abortion should be illegal than broadly legal since the late-90s. Today there is a 21% gap between the two, a rather staggering shift from the fourteen-point gap favoring the full legality of abortion in 1990. Conversely Democrats have consistently been far more in favor of making abortion legal than illegal in all instances since the start of the 90s. As of 2009 the gap stands at 19%. This is a far cry from the 26-19% margin in favor of those Democrats wanting abortion illegal back in 1975.
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