It is more than thirty months away and an important midterm election stands in between. Yet it’s a safe bet that members of the Democratic and Republican parties are already sizing up the likely electorate for 2012.
Recent elections have shown us that barring landslide conditions the electoral map is more and more defined by a handful of competitive states in each election known to most of us as battleground or “swing” states. But while certain large battleground territories such as Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and Michigan seem to grab most of the headlines it’s a handful of other states that could be viewed as equally important.
Democratic Presidents have been fairly successful since the 1990s. In five elections dating back to 1992 Democrats have received popular vote victories in all but George W. Bush’s narrow reelection win in 2004 over John Kerry. Of course Bush was also the outright victor in 2000 when the Republican Governor controversially defeated then sitting Democratic Vice President Al Gore in the Electoral College despite coming up short in the national popular vote tally.
Cumulatively the Democrats have won the last five elections by 19.37 percentage-points. That breaks down on average to a modest 3.87% margin of victory per-election. Whether it’s fair to assess the current political landscape by analyzing the electorate of years past is debatable. To be fair the success of Democratic President’s Barack Obama and Bill Clinton in certain otherwise GOP strongholds indicates that both the popularity of a specific candidate and the circumstances around an election arguably has as much to do with the end result as that of overall electoral trends. Yet it’s obvious that the Clinton victories of the 90s and the Republican opposition that strengthened around certain parts of the country helped shape the current polarization were are now accustomed to seeing on the electoral map.
Prior to 1992 “blue” states and “red” states, that we have since coined as those leaning heavily in the favor of the Democratic and Republican parties respectively, had no specific association with a region. In 1988 for example Democrat Michael Dukakis came out on the losing end of the national popular vote by 7.71% while taking home just 111-electoral votes against incumbent Vice President George H.W. Bush. Dukakis succeeded in winning eight states that have since gone “blue” in each successive election up through 2008. He also won West Virginia, for good measure, a state that had a strong Democratic tradition through the early-90s but since 2000 has voted heavily in favor of the Republican candidate for President. On the flip side Dukakis also lost four states (California, Connecticut, Maine and Vermont) that have become Democratic strongholds since 1992.
The Clinton-years seem responsible for shifting our current outlook of the electoral map from a state by state analysis to a more regional focus. Including the District of Columbia there are 19-states that have gone for Democratic Presidential candidates in at least five consecutive elections dating back to 1992. In most instances those newly minted “blue” states have done so by comfortable margins. In terms of current electoral distribution those 19-states also add up to 248-votes, or just 22 shy of what is needed to secure the Presidency. No wonder then the campaign focus of modern Democratic candidates has been to secure their own territory while picking up a couple of key battleground or “swing-states” along the way.
Al Gore and John Kerry were unsuccessful in doing so in 2000 or 2004 as George W. Bush and the Republicans blockaded them with heavily supportive districts of their own while protecting territories where the polls were only closely in their favor. The GOP has 13-states that have all gone “red” in their favor since ’92 but that territory only provides them 96-electoral votes. There are 6-states however that have voted Republican for President in four of five elections, bringing that electoral total up to 163-votes. Capturing these 19-states helps the GOP to a clearer path toward electoral victory.
What is left then are 13-states that accumulate the decisive 127-electoral votes that have decided each recent Presidential election. Can we predict the likelihood of future election outcomes by tracking the tendencies of each remaining “swing" state? Just perhaps. Below is a list of each battleground state and its average swing towards one party or the other in the last five Presidential elections. Remember the national average over that period is 3.87 percentage-points in favor of the Democratic Party.
State: Arkansas
Electoral Votes (2000 census): 6
Democratic wins: 1992, ‘96
Republican wins: 2000, ’04, 08
Democratic Margin: - 0.39%
Republican Margin: + 0.39%
National Average: + 4.26% (GOP)
Electoral Designation: Leans Republican
Notes: Arkansas voted heavily against then Senator Obama in the last Presidential election and heading into 2012 it should probably be viewed as a safe “red” state for Republicans. Overall the state has just barely favored GOP candidates over the past five Presidential election but has exceeded the national trend favoring Democrats over the time period by better than four percentage-points.
State: Colorado
Electoral Votes (2000 census): 9
Democratic wins: 1992, ‘08
Republican wins: 1996, ’00, ‘04
Democratic Margin: - 0.24%
Republican Margin: + 0.24%
National Average: + 4.11% (GOP)
Electoral Designation: Leans Republican
Notes: Colorado hasn’t been decided by double-digits in favor of either party since Ronald Reagan’s landslide victory of 1984. In 2008 Barack Obama won the state’s nine-electoral votes by nearly nine percentage-points. Republicans remain very competitive here however. Overall they have a slight edge since 1992 as the GOP has won there three of five times. Against the national average they also have a Republican leaning tendency.
State: Florida
Electoral Votes (2000 census): 27
Democratic wins: 1996, ‘08
Republican wins: 1992, ’00, ‘04
Democratic Margin: + 1.60%
Republican Margin: - 1.60%
National Average: + 2.27% (GOP)
Electoral Designation: Barely Republican
Notes: One of the classic “swing” states is also the most sought after due to its electoral rich 27-votes. Florida was won by Barack Obama in 2008 and by Bill Clinton in 1996 with the Bush’s combining to take the other three. Three of the last five elections have been decided by fewer than three percentage-points in the “Sunshine” State including George W. Bush’s controversial victory there in 2000 that handed him the Presidency.
State: Iowa
Electoral Votes (2000 census): 7
Democratic wins: 1992, ’96, ’00, ‘08
Republican wins: 2004
Democratic Margin: + 5.10%
Republican Margin: - 5.10%
National Average: + 1.23% (DEM)
Electoral Designation: Barely Democrat
Notes: Iowa has actually gone “blue” for Democrats in four of the past five elections as well as for Michael Dukakis in 1988. It retains its designation as a battleground state because its margin of victory in some of these elections has been razor thin, although Obama did carry it by nearly ten-points in 2008. Iowa leans only slightly to the Democratic left after it’s compared to the party’s national average of late.
State: Kentucky
Electoral Votes (2000 census): 8
Democratic wins: 1992, ‘96
Republican wins: 2000, ’04, 08
Democratic Margin: - 9.41%
Republican Margin: + 9.41%
National Average: + 13.28% (GOP)
Electoral Designation: Solid Republican
Notes: Kentucky makes our list of battleground states by way of Bill Clinton’s narrow victories there in 1992 and ’96. Since that time the state has gone for Republican candidates by wide margins and heads into 2012 as a dependable state for the GOP. In the instance of a southern Democratic running for office, as Bill Clinton was in the early-90s or based off of Jimmy Carter’s success in 1976 and ’80, Kentucky could still be competitive.
State: Louisiana
Electoral Votes (2000 census): 9
Democratic wins: 1992, ‘96
Republican wins: 2000, ’04, 08
Democratic Margin: - 4.83%
Republican Margin: + 4.83%
National Average: + 8.70% (GOP)
Electoral Designation: Likely Republican
Notes: Similar to Kentucky the state of Louisiana has been drifting aimlessly away from the Democrats since 1996 after two successive victories by Bill Clinton. President Obama got beat up there in 2008 as did John Kerry four years earlier. Statistically Louisiana is still somewhat in play for the Democrats but it would probably take a popular moderate southerner to turn it from “red” to “blue” anytime in the near future.
State: Missouri
Electoral Votes (2000 census): 11
Democratic wins: 1992, ‘96
Republican wins: 2000, ’04, 08
Democratic Margin: + 1.16%
Republican Margin: - 1.16%
National Average: + 2.71% (GOP)
Electoral Designation: Leans Republican
Notes: Missouri lost its bellwether status after voting for losing Republican candidate John McCain by less than 4,000 votes in 2008. This was in spite of the fact that Barack Obama won the national popular vote by well over seven percentage-points. Such a loss has to give Democrats some pause heading in 2012. However their overall performance in the “Show Me” state over the past five elections still makes this highly competitive territory.
State: Nevada
Electoral Votes (2000 census): 6
Democratic wins: 1992, ’96, ‘08
Republican wins: 2000, ‘04
Democratic Margin: +2.00%
Republican Margin: - 2.00%
National Average: + 1.87% (GOP)
Electoral Designation: Barely Republican
Notes: In 2008 President Obama ended several years of close elections by dominating John McCain in Nevada. His 12.5% victory in the state has it trending toward the Democrats come 2012. Bill Clinton won closely here in the 90s and George W. Bush did so as well in the 2000s. Its close margin that slightly favors the Democrats in recent election is a wash when based against their national averages over that period giving the GOP the narrow edge.
State: New Hampshire
Electoral Votes (2000 census): 4
Democratic wins:
Republican wins: 2000
Democratic Margin: + 4.18%
Republican Margin: - 4.18%
National Average: + 0.31 (DEM)
Electoral Designation: Toss-Up
Notes: New Hampshire is included on our list of key “swing” states despite the fact that it has gone “blue” for Democratic candidates in four of five elections since 1992. No candidate since that time has won the state by more than ten percentage-points and New Hampshire continues to be the only true battleground state in New England. Obama won here easily in 2008 but all arrows point to another close race in 2012.
State: New Mexico
Electoral Votes (2000 census): 5
Democratic wins: 1992, ’96, ’00, ‘08
Republican wins: 2004
Democratic Margin: + 6.06
Republican Margin: - 6.06%
National Average: + 2.19% (DEM)
Electoral Designation: Barely Democratic
Notes: Barack Obama’s landslide victory over John McCain in New Mexico in 2008 of more than fifteen percentage-points belies a competitive modern history here. Bill Clinton won the state twice in 90s by modest margins but New Mexico was decided by just 366-votes in 2000 and fewer than 6,000 votes in 2004. Democrats have done well here overall in recent years but New Mexico is still very much up for grabs.
State: Ohio
Electoral Votes (2000 census): 20
Democratic wins: 1992, ’96, ‘08
Republican wins: 2000, ‘04
Democratic Margin: + 1.43%
Republican Margin: - 1.43%
National Average: + 2.44% (GOP)
Electoral Designation: Barely Republican
Notes: Since 1964 no candidate has won the office of President without carrying the state of Ohio. The “Buckeye” State has been decided by no more than 6.36 percentage-points since 1992 and was a key victory in George W. Bush’s election wins in 2000 and 2004. Still Democrats have done well in Ohio winning it in three of the past dive Presidential elections. They are slightly ahead of the Republicans in margin of victory over that period and slightly behind them when balanced against their national averages.
State: Tennessee
Electoral Votes (2000 census): 11
Democratic wins: 1992, ‘96
Republican wins: 2000, ’04, 08
Democratic Margin: - 5.23%
Republican Margin: + 5.23%
National Average: + 9.10% (GOP)
Electoral Designation: Likely Republican
Notes: Tennessee is one of a handful of southern states that continues to drift away from Democratic candidates in recent years. Barack Obama faired worse here in 2008 than John Kerry did in 2004 despite winning the national vote by a comfortable margin. Tennessee was Al Gore’s home state but that didn’t keep him from suffering a somewhat embarrassing defeat in 2000. As Vice President he faired somewhat better there in 1992 and ’96 along side of Bill Clinton.
State: West Virginia
Electoral Votes (2000 census): 5
Democratic wins: 1992, ‘96
Republican wins: 2000, ’04, 08
Democratic Margin: - 0.90%
Republican Margin: + 0.90%
National Average: + 4.77% (GOP)
Electoral Designation: Leans Republican
Notes: Between 1932 and 1996 West Virginia went for a Democratic candidate for President in all but three elections. On the backend of the era it went strongly for southerner Bill Clinton. Starting in 2000 though the state began trending heavily to the right and is now considered a likely Republican pickup for 2012. Barack Obama lost her by over thirteen-points in 2008 although recent history points to West Virginia still being obtainable for the Democrats moving forward.
By 2012 the National Popular Vote bill could guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
ReplyDeleteEvery vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections. Candidates would need to care about voters across the nation, not just undecided voters in a handful of swing states.
The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes--that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
The Constitution gives every state the power to allocate its electoral votes for president, as well as to change state law on how those votes are awarded.
The bill is currently endorsed by over 1,707 state legislators (in 48 states) who have sponsored and/or cast recorded votes in favor of the bill.
In Gallup polls since 1944, only about 20% of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a state's electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with about 70% opposed and about 10% undecided). The recent Washington Post, Kaiser Family Foundation, and Harvard University poll shows 72% support for direct nationwide election of the President. Support for a national popular vote is strong in virtually every state, partisan, and demographic group surveyed in recent polls in closely divided battleground states: Colorado-- 68%, Iowa --75%, Michigan-- 73%, Missouri-- 70%, New Hampshire-- 69%, Nevada-- 72%, New Mexico-- 76%, North Carolina-- 74%, Ohio-- 70%, Pennsylvania -- 78%, Virginia -- 74%, and Wisconsin -- 71%; in smaller states (3 to 5 electoral votes): Alaska – 70%, DC – 76%, Delaware --75%, Maine -- 77%, Nebraska -- 74%, New Hampshire --69%, Nevada -- 72%, New Mexico -- 76%, Rhode Island -- 74%, and Vermont -- 75%; in Southern and border states: Arkansas --80%, Kentucky -- 80%, Mississippi --77%, Missouri -- 70%, North Carolina -- 74%, and Virginia -- 74%; and in other states polled: California -- 70%, Connecticut -- 74% , Massachusetts -- 73%, Minnesota – 75%, New York -- 79%, Washington -- 77%, and West Virginia- 81%.
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 29 state legislative chambers, in 19 small, medium-small, medium, and large states, including one house in Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Oregon, and both houses in California, Colorado, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, and Washington. These five states possess 61 electoral votes -- 23% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com