Analysis: What were the determining factors for Democrats voting for or against health care?

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History was made last night at 10:45pm when the House of Representatives passed President Obama’s long awaited health care reform bill. There were several deals cut and concessions made over the last few days of the proceedings but ultimately few surprises from the chamber when it came time to actually cast their votes.

Republicans remained universally opposed to the bill with 219 of 253 Democrats casting their vote in favor of its passage. The ramifications of health care reform will continue to be debated for years, perhaps decades. In the meantime this significant moment in history is highlighted by a greater, or perhaps dubious, display of current political conditions in Washington. An increasingly fractured electorate led by increasingly polarized parties. While there is little need for analysis in the party-line voting behavior that categorizes the GOP on most major issues, the level of support given by Democrats to the bill is an interesting case study.

Nate Silver’s recent blog on his website

www.fivethirtyeight.com does a terrific job in illustrating where the levels of support and opposition could be found within the Democratic ranks. As he points out it wasn’t too hard to find and could be determined by the association of “yea” and “nay” voters in a handful of categories.

Silver first analyzes the percentage of popular vote obtained by President Obama in each congressional district from 2008 that a current House member resides, excluding retirees. Also in the instance of those, such as Pennsylvania 7th District Congressman Joe Sestak, who are running for statewide offices he lists Obama’s percentage bracket from the state as a whole in 2008.

We he found was universal opposition from Democrats residing in districts where the President struggled in 2008. Where Obama got less than 40% of the vote in that election all twelve Democrats representing those districts opposed the health care bill. There was tentative support in the 40-49% range with 17 of 30 (56.7%) Representatives offer up a “yea” vote to the bill. Where Obama got better than 50% support from American voters he got nearly 100% support from Democratic politicians. 195 of 202 (96.5%) members of the House residing in districts where the President won a majority vote in 2008 offered their support for health care. This included 70 of 75 (93.3%) in the 50-59% bracket, 61 of 63 (96.8%) in the 60-69% range and all 64-Representatives from districts where the President pulled in better than 70% of the popular vote.

In addition to Presidential success there is also a fairly obvious correlation made between support of the health care bill and the competitiveness of the race each House member is in for 2010. Congressmen who are either retiring or can be classified as residing in “safe” districts according to polls supported the bill in 160 of 169 instances (94.7%). Likely Democratic districts found the support of 30 out of 39 Representatives (76.9%) and those leaning towards sitting Congressman got the support of 15 in 23 instances (65.2%). Toss-up districts or those that lean towards the Republican opposition meanwhile generated a slimmer majority of support. 14 of 22 Democrats (63.6%) under this classification voted for the bill.

Of course another important variable in deciding how votes were cast dealt with the political ideology of the Representative in question. Silver defines each Democrat as being either “Very Liberal”, “Liberal”, “Mainline”, “Mainline-Moderate”, or “Moderate-Conservative” based on their voting track record. Those who were either liberal or “very” liberal unsurprisingly offered up their whole hearted support for the bill, 51 of 51 in each category. Mainline Democrats were also strongly supportive to the tune of a 96% “yea” rate. The more moderate wing of the party closely reflected the support of Democrats overall. Just over 86% of this category supported the bill matching the better than 86% of Democrats who cast their vote in favor of health care in general. Lastly far and away the greatest number of those opposed could be found in the conservative wing of the party. Exactly half of the conservatives or "Blue Dogs" (25 of 50) supported and opposed the measure.

Silver goes on to highlight other variables such as the “Stupak” coalition, insurance rates by district or state and lobbying dollars. Support or opposition from Democrats however seems to rest in the three basic areas categorized above. The three most important questions each Representative had to ask oneself were 1) how much of an asset is President Obama to my political wellbeing, 2) how competitive is the race for my district this fall, and 3) what are my personal feelings toward the abortion language in the bill and where do I stand on a woman’s right to choose?

Opinions will range on which side showed the greater level of character or approached their vote more altruistically, just as the debate on the health care bill itself will continue to rage on. What will never be known for certain are the motives for each individual member of Congress. Were the Republicans, universally opposed to the bill, unified by logic and rejection on philosophical grounds, or simply by the mantra of party line voting behavior? On the other hand were the Democrats, with several dissenting voices in tow, supporting the bill on the grounds of knowing what the right choice was for the greatest number of Americans? Or were their voting decisions directed by the will of a President and cries of change from their constituency?

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Charles Dharapak