Poll: Health care is the top issue in Pennsylvania, voters voice their opinions on range of topics

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Health care is the most important issue, President Obama continues his decline in popularity and a new batch of numbers help shed some light on the key political races in Pennsylvania.

Conducted between Match 15-21st the new Franklin & Marshall poll uses samples of over 1,100 Pennsylvania residents, over 85% of whom are registered voters. Reflecting recent political trends in the Keystone State the responders by party include 50% Democrat, 31.5% Republican and 11.4% registered either as independent or refused to identify.

After dipping somewhat according to February polling Dan Onorato is back leading three other Democratic candidates vying for the party’s nomination for Governor. Onorato pulls in 11% of current support, ahead of Jack Wagner (7%), Joe Hoeffel (5%) and Anthony Williams (4%). Consistent with recent months however better than seven in ten Pennsylvania Democrats (71%) continue to lack a preference on any candidate in the race.

On the Republican side State Attorney General Tom Corbett has reached his highest level of support to date. At 28% he is well ahead of Sam Rohrer who pulls in a comparatively microscopic 4% of the Republican vote at this time. As it does with Democratic voters indecision continues to run high with the GOP as well, with nearly two-thirds (66%) of those registered not knowing who they’ll support just yet.

For the first time in the state’s highly touted Senate race Republican Pat Toomey is shown with a clear lead over prospective Democratic candidate and sitting Senator Arlen Specter. In an exact reversal from last month Toomey’s advantage is 33-29% over Specter with 32% of voters still undecided on their preference. In the event the Republican is matched up against 7th District Representative Joe Sestak his prospects of victory are even greater. Stretching a modest 25-22% lead recorded last month by Franklin & Marshall polling Toomey is now ahead of Sestak 27-19%. One bright note for the would-be Democrat rests in the nearly half of the state’s voting population (49%) who remain undecided on who to support between the two.

Sestak’s problems run deeper than his general election poll numbers against Toomey however. His primary match up against Arlen Specter is less than two months away and currently he is shown to be trailing the longtime Senator by a decisive 32-12% margin. That said a majority of Democrats (52%) still remain undecided.

Franklin & Marshall also asked Pennsylvanians about certain issues that will affect their daily lives. One important area dealt with new tax proposals as a source of revenue generating for the state. The most favorable proposal came in the form of levying a tax on the sale of smokeless tobacco and cigars. 64% of voters favored such a tax against just 33% who were opposed. Next in line was toll collection on interstate route 80 for the purpose of infrastructure improvement. Pluralities of Pennsylvanians (49%) favor the idea against 44% in opposition. In a percentage reversal 44% of voters favored and 49% were opposed to the implementation of a progressive tax that would pull in greater revenue from higher income residents. The two least popular proposals meanwhile were a possible tax increase on companies that extract and sell natural gas (35-49%) and decreasing the state’s sales tax from 6% to 4% while extending it to cover certain purchases, like clothing or food products, that are not currently taxed (33-54%).

Pessimism over the general direction of the state continues to linger. At its lowest level since last October just 32% of Pennsylvanians feel things are heading in the right direction. 58% are of the opinion that their home state is on the wrong track. Somewhat contradictory to those figures is a slight improvement in the number of those who consider themselves and their families to be better or worse off financially than they were a year ago. Same as in February 13% of Pennsylvanians say they are doing better, but at 36% the number who suggest they are worse off is tied for the lowest percentage in that category since February of 2008. Furthermore 51% claim their finances are about the same as in the spring of 2009. That’s a modest five-point bump from a month ago.

Looking ahead optimism and pessimism about voters’ personal finances remains fairly steady. 27% think they will better off, 17% worse off and half (50%) of those polled assume they’ll stay about the same. Pennsylvanians were only slightly more optimistic a year ago when 27% were thinking they’d be better off, 12% worse off and 55% the same financially projecting ahead to March of 2010.

Top politicians from the state of Pennsylvania as well as nationally get mixed grades from Keystone State residents. Ed Rendell’s popularity is holding steady from the start of the year. Overall 41% hold a favorable view of the Governor and 42% are left with an unfavorable impression. After rebounding modestly from low numbers toward the end of 2009 Arlen Specter is struggling again. Just 30% have a favorable opinion of the Senator against 45% who view him negatively. Bob Casey’s favorable to unfavorable margin of 33-21% is also a bit worse than what polls in recent months have shown. Senate challengers Joe Sestak and Pat Toomey are viewed favorably meanwhile although many Pennsylvanians do not hold an opinion of either. Sestak’s favorability margin runs at 11-7% and Toomey’s is currently at 18-10%.

It was another tough month for President Obama in the state of Pennsylvania. Being that this Franklin & Marshall survey was conducted prior to the passage of his embattled health care reform bill this week it will be interesting to see what effect, positive or negative, the legislative victory will have on the President’s numbers. For now Obama has reached a new low in the Keystone State. More voters view him unfavorably (46%) than favorably (42%) for the first time. That’s a decline of seven-points in both categories. Only a quarter of Pennsylvania residents (25%) hold a “strongly” favorable view of the Commander in Chief and tying a record high one-third (33%) of the electorate have a strongly unfavorable view.

Health care is now the top issue among Pennsylvania voters as we inch closer to the fall midterm elections. With the issue the main focus nationally a major increase from 21% in February to 31% now in March place it as the top voting concern. It will be interesting to see, now with passage of the bill, if health care fades back to moderate levels in the coming months. The top issue last month was the economy and employment. That has since dropped to second on the list of importance coming in at 24% from 30% in February. No other topic generates more than 3% as the top concern among voters in Pennsylvania and 17% are uncertain of what their biggest issue is.

Lastly the Franklin & Marshall poll delved in to some social and ideological questions. After spiking to 21% a month ago the number of self-described liberals in Pennsylvania has returned to 17%. That is fairly consistent both with state averages over the past few years and with national totals. Four in ten Pennsylvanians are conservative according to recent poll findings. The number of conservatives reached a record high of 43% in August of 2009 but had dipped to 37% as of last month before its current rebound. 35% of state residents have moderate political views. That is down from the span of 2006-08 when moderates numbered in the low-40 percentiles in Pennsylvania but fairly consistent with recent findings.

In spite of the considerable advantage enjoyed by Democrats according to registration totals there are similar totals to the number of those who actually affiliate as being Democratic or Republican. Democrats populate 44% of the state including 20% who claim to be strongly loyal to the party. Republicans are currently at 40% with 14% who say they are strongly allied with the GOP. Meanwhile only 12% of Pennsylvanians view themselves as pure independents.

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Pennsylvania retains its image as a moderately pro-choice state on the abortion issue. Nearly identical to figures from last month 19% of residents want the procedure legal in “all” instances and more than half (56%) think it ought to be legal in “most” circumstances. Furthermore when it comes to religion more than eight in ten Pennsylvanians put their trust in the Christian Bible. 29% prefer a literal interpretation of the book and 53% consider it to at least be the inspired word of God even if not every aspect should be taken literally. Just 15% of residents view the good book as little more than a collection of manmade fables and moral precepts, the lowest percentage recorded since 2004.