Analysis: Even odds on "Obamacare" getting through Congress?

READ FULL STORY HERE

Intrade is giving even odds to the passage of the latest version of President Obama’s health care plan. Public opposition meanwhile remains steady and consistent through the partisan storm.

The latest market data from Intrade points to a significant shift in the right direction for “Obamacare” in recent days. After bottoming out at 33% in January following Scott Brown’s victory in the Massachusetts special-election for Senate confidence has rebounded up to 52%. But do these improving market odds, particularly when stacked up next to the consistent opposition of the American public, really point to an improved likelihood of passage for the embattled health care reform bill? Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com investigates.

Silver looks at a number of factors contributing to the supposed momentum of the bill since Brown’s stunning victory temporarily derailed hopes of passage in late-January. He then highlights some of the negative factors that could impede the progress of health care reform.

First off Silver points towards the obvious fact that it seems the White House has gone all-in. Hoping to serve merely as a catalyst or pulpit for passage of the bill has now given way to a hands on approach that has probably strapped Obama’s political life, and that of his party, to the success or failure of cutting a deal and getting a bill. Adding Republican proposals and holding a bipartisan summit have shown the President is not only willing but forced to get his hands dirty on the subject.

Barring a messy floor fight the Democrats already have 46 committed votes in the Senate and Silver does not see any reason to believe that 50 isn't easily obtainable. The reconciliation bill also features aspects that are largely agreed upon on both sides of the political isle. Decreasing the excise tax, eliminating kickbacks, reformatting formulas and subsidies while creating some sort of oversight outweigh the more controversial issues that are mostly out of the way at this point. The battle over the language of the bill and how it pertains to abortion persists but the White House can now take solace in the fact that it appears the House is ready to get aggressive and act first on health care reform.

Silver then suggests that rate increases from Anthem and other private insurers give the Democratic argument some backbone and allow them a stronger moral case on the subject as well as some helpful talking points while on the campaign trail. Adding political cover to such a sticky subject during an election year is probably encouraging to Democrats and the handful of moderate Republicans alike. Furthermore as a small bonus prize to the proceedings it appears that at least one “nay” vote is ready to exit his seat in the House. Embroiled in a sex scandal Eric Massa of New York may be planning to retire which would bring down the number of votes needed for passage in the House from 217 to 216.

On the flip-side Silver points out five additional factors that, if the bill dies in Congress once again, will be the chief culprits in the extinguishing of health care reform.

Bart Stupak hasn’t nudged in his opposition to the bill based on its abortion language. Several notable Democrats including Dennis Kucinich could join Stupak’s ranks and vote against the measure. Silver points the abortion subject as being a source of political cover for already wavering "Blue Dog" Democrats and those residing in competitive and/or moderate voting districts opposed to the reform bill. Secondly, just as Eric Massa’s retirement or resignation could improve the numbers for “Obamacare” supporters the loss of three Democrats; Jack Murtha, Neil Abercrombie and Robert Wexler make the math of adding up to 217-votes all the more difficult.

The Democratic brand name has also taken a hit over the past year and won’t help in the PR war to assist with the passage of this reform bill. Alarmed at the possibility of losing congressional control this November while sifting through the loss of certain colleagues by way of retirement, death or scandal would be an easy way to convince many embattled Dems to run to the political middle safeground and oppose the bill. As previously mentioned the American public has been consistently opposed to health care reform as indicated in most polls. Pollster.com who takes the figures from a number of organizations into consideration finds the current average rests at 42.5% in support of and 50.2% opposed. Measurements of likely voters, registered votes and adults in general all find more opposition than support for the current bill.

While President Obama’s bipartisan summit was probably necessary in damage control for the majority of the public who was strongly against the idea of the Democrats ramming through a bill without Republican support, it was, according to Silver, an underwhelming affair. The American public, as previously mentioned and indicated through polls, seems to have fairly locked in opinions on the subject. Lastly there is the ticking clock factor. The elections are eight months away, many states are already holding their primaries and the focus of both the public and in Washington will be dealing with the midterms more than it will the passage of health care reform.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / J. SCOTT APPLEWHITE