Poll: Opinions on health care bill differ between two new surveys

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One topic, two polls, and two very different results.

With President Obama’s signature affixed on the health care reform bill two prominent polling organizations have become the first to track the opinions of Americans on the subject. It appears that even after Sunday night’s landmark passage the complexities being voiced by the public continue to mirror those of the bill itself.

Many on the political left were quick to celebrate the results of a new USA Today/Gallup survey that shows a plurality of Americans now believe passage of the health care bill to be a “good idea”. However when asked whether they favor the recent passage of the bill through congress a just released Bloomberg survey finds half the public in opposition. By a 49-40% margin the Gallup poll shows support for the new bill. In a near reversal of those figures meanwhile more oppose than favor health care reform by a 50-38% margin according to Bloomberg.

Interestingly there is a strong similarity between the surveys that contradicts the widely different results between the two. Both Gallup and Bloomberg polled just over a thousand adults nationwide, meaning each gathered information from a virtually identical sample size and used the same classification of citizens. One potentially important difference comes in the time span each survey was conducted. Gallup was able to poll over a thousand individuals all on Monday, March 22nd. That was the day after the House secured enough votes for passage Sunday night. The Bloomberg release on the other hand collected responses over four days from March 19-22nd. Hard to say which poll is a more accurate reflection of the public but the Bloomberg survey failed to account for the immediate reactions of the country in full whereas the Gallup poll, done the day after, may have been bogged down by instant responses to the momentous event.

The Gallup poll shows emotions running high on the health care debate. Slightly more adults are angry (19%) than enthusiastic (15%) upon passage of the new bill. Those closer to the middle of the argument meanwhile lean towards a favorable view of the bill. 35% say they are pleased against 23% who are disappointed meaning that in total half of Americans (50%) evoke good feelings toward health care overhaul against 42% who think ill of it.

President Obama leaves the proceedings with far more positive ratings than either his fellow Democrats or the Republicans in congress, yet his numbers are, at best, similarly lukewarm. 46% of the American public feels the President did a “good” or “excellent” job in addressing the problems with the health care system over the past year. More than half however (51%) feel he did either a “fair” or “poor” job on the topic. Congressional Democrats get good marks from just 32% of the public with 63% viewing their efforts negatively. Republicans fare even worse with little more than a quarter (26%) of Americans giving them high marks for their efforts against 68% pegging them with a mediocre or failing grade on the subject.

Bloomberg backed up their findings with a series of specific questions for American adults. Despite overall rejection from the majority of the public on the passage of this specific bill through congress some 64% either “somewhat” or “strongly” agree with the idea that the government has a role in making sure all citizens have access to affordable coverage. This helps to explain the general feeling of the electorate who are overwhelmingly pro-reform, in some fashion, but mostly against the specific bill that just passed through congress. Also helping to illustrate that point are the slim majority (51%) of Americans polled who believe in the general sentiment that it would be more costly to do nothing about health care than creating a plan to overhaul it. Nearly eight in ten (80%) meanwhile disagree with the concept that health care is currently fine the way it is.

Asking other questions the Bloomberg poll reveals that 60% of the public considers health care a largely private matter that should be taken care of by the specific individual. Grasping the complexities of the subject is also viewed as difficult for most. A whopping 75%, including 49% who strongly agree, think that health care is too complicated a subject and the current proposals were too difficult to understand for most. Modestly more adults (48%) think health care reform will help others more than themselves (43%). By a margin of 53-42% most believe current reform measures add up to a government takeover. Furthermore most Americans approve of immediate action on health care but they do so by a fairly modest 51-47% margin over those who’d prefer to focus on other issues first.

Analysis: What were the determining factors for Democrats voting for or against health care?

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History was made last night at 10:45pm when the House of Representatives passed President Obama’s long awaited health care reform bill. There were several deals cut and concessions made over the last few days of the proceedings but ultimately few surprises from the chamber when it came time to actually cast their votes.

Republicans remained universally opposed to the bill with 219 of 253 Democrats casting their vote in favor of its passage. The ramifications of health care reform will continue to be debated for years, perhaps decades. In the meantime this significant moment in history is highlighted by a greater, or perhaps dubious, display of current political conditions in Washington. An increasingly fractured electorate led by increasingly polarized parties. While there is little need for analysis in the party-line voting behavior that categorizes the GOP on most major issues, the level of support given by Democrats to the bill is an interesting case study.

Nate Silver’s recent blog on his website

www.fivethirtyeight.com does a terrific job in illustrating where the levels of support and opposition could be found within the Democratic ranks. As he points out it wasn’t too hard to find and could be determined by the association of “yea” and “nay” voters in a handful of categories.

Silver first analyzes the percentage of popular vote obtained by President Obama in each congressional district from 2008 that a current House member resides, excluding retirees. Also in the instance of those, such as Pennsylvania 7th District Congressman Joe Sestak, who are running for statewide offices he lists Obama’s percentage bracket from the state as a whole in 2008.

We he found was universal opposition from Democrats residing in districts where the President struggled in 2008. Where Obama got less than 40% of the vote in that election all twelve Democrats representing those districts opposed the health care bill. There was tentative support in the 40-49% range with 17 of 30 (56.7%) Representatives offer up a “yea” vote to the bill. Where Obama got better than 50% support from American voters he got nearly 100% support from Democratic politicians. 195 of 202 (96.5%) members of the House residing in districts where the President won a majority vote in 2008 offered their support for health care. This included 70 of 75 (93.3%) in the 50-59% bracket, 61 of 63 (96.8%) in the 60-69% range and all 64-Representatives from districts where the President pulled in better than 70% of the popular vote.

In addition to Presidential success there is also a fairly obvious correlation made between support of the health care bill and the competitiveness of the race each House member is in for 2010. Congressmen who are either retiring or can be classified as residing in “safe” districts according to polls supported the bill in 160 of 169 instances (94.7%). Likely Democratic districts found the support of 30 out of 39 Representatives (76.9%) and those leaning towards sitting Congressman got the support of 15 in 23 instances (65.2%). Toss-up districts or those that lean towards the Republican opposition meanwhile generated a slimmer majority of support. 14 of 22 Democrats (63.6%) under this classification voted for the bill.

Of course another important variable in deciding how votes were cast dealt with the political ideology of the Representative in question. Silver defines each Democrat as being either “Very Liberal”, “Liberal”, “Mainline”, “Mainline-Moderate”, or “Moderate-Conservative” based on their voting track record. Those who were either liberal or “very” liberal unsurprisingly offered up their whole hearted support for the bill, 51 of 51 in each category. Mainline Democrats were also strongly supportive to the tune of a 96% “yea” rate. The more moderate wing of the party closely reflected the support of Democrats overall. Just over 86% of this category supported the bill matching the better than 86% of Democrats who cast their vote in favor of health care in general. Lastly far and away the greatest number of those opposed could be found in the conservative wing of the party. Exactly half of the conservatives or "Blue Dogs" (25 of 50) supported and opposed the measure.

Silver goes on to highlight other variables such as the “Stupak” coalition, insurance rates by district or state and lobbying dollars. Support or opposition from Democrats however seems to rest in the three basic areas categorized above. The three most important questions each Representative had to ask oneself were 1) how much of an asset is President Obama to my political wellbeing, 2) how competitive is the race for my district this fall, and 3) what are my personal feelings toward the abortion language in the bill and where do I stand on a woman’s right to choose?

Opinions will range on which side showed the greater level of character or approached their vote more altruistically, just as the debate on the health care bill itself will continue to rage on. What will never be known for certain are the motives for each individual member of Congress. Were the Republicans, universally opposed to the bill, unified by logic and rejection on philosophical grounds, or simply by the mantra of party line voting behavior? On the other hand were the Democrats, with several dissenting voices in tow, supporting the bill on the grounds of knowing what the right choice was for the greatest number of Americans? Or were their voting decisions directed by the will of a President and cries of change from their constituency?

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Charles Dharapak

Analysis: With sagging approval ratings what will passage of health care bill mean for Obama?

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So long as the topic of health care continues to dominate the headlines President Obama will likely find his job approval rating in intensive care.

Sunday’s crucial House vote on the current sweeping legislation will come at a time when the President’s popularity is at a new low according to certain polls. After hovering around the 50% plateau for several months Obama has suddenly fallen below the threshold. Real Clear Politics which combines the averages of several recent surveys shows the President’s approval, for the first time, dropping in the negatives.

Rasmussen Reports which has provided the White House with particularly bearish ratings for many months now currently pegs Obama’s popularity at just 45% with 55% disapproving of his performance. Fox News also has the President in the negatives to the tune of a 46-48% margin. While he is still on the plus side in polls from Pew Research and NBC News/Wall Street Journal, both publications show his job approval at under 50%. Only an Associated Press survey conducted earlier this month provides the President with some measure of good news positing him with a 53-46% approval to disapproval rating.

Perhaps the most notable new release comes from Gallup. As of yesterday the highly regarded organization places Obama’s numbers in the negatives for the first time. 46% of American adults now approve of the President’s job performance against 48% who disapprove. Factoring in these results with the other aforementioned polls, a combination of adults, registered voters and likely voter samples, the average for Obama is a meager 47.3% approval rating against 47.8% who disapprove.

It seems clear that the health care issue is the main culprit in President Obama’s sagging popularity. The latest Rasmussen polling indicates a sizeable majority of American voters lining up against the Democratic reform measures. 53% are opposed to the new legislation with 43% in favor of its passage. Fox News echoes those findings but measures even stronger cries of opposition coming from the public. According to their most recent findings just 35% favor the current legislation against 55% who are opposed. While a marginal improvement from January President Obama’s handling of the health care issue receives largely negative marks adults surveyed by NBC News. 41% approve of his handling of the issue and 57% disapprove. Ditto those findings from the most recent Pew poll that show the President at a 39-52% approval to disapproval margin on the subject.

Gallup chose to breakdown the opinions of Americans based on separate categories. The most positive area for Obama comes with the 59-22% margin of the public who feel that those currently without health insurance coverage will be better served under the new bill against those who believe they will be worse off. Lower income families in general are also perceived to be in better shape as a result of health care reform by a margin of 56-29%. Beyond that all other categories get a decidedly negative response from the American public. This includes the country as a whole that will be worse off in the opinion of 44% and better off by just 39% of responders. Pharmaceutical companies (41-34%), middle-income families (44-34%), hospitals (42-33%), doctors (45-29%), you and your family (37-28%), health insurances companies (51-26%), and upper-income families (33-22%) follow suit.

President Obama has been quoted as suggesting the life of his Presidency hinges on the success or failure of the health care reform bill. In spite of a recent injection of adrenaline from a couple of high ranking Democratic congressman and the blessing of a group of catholic nuns, it seems most Americans have both made up their mind on health care and will continue to give Obama low marks as long as it remains the top issue he focuses on. The President probably faces one of three scenarios in the event he receives a legislative victory for passage of the bill through Congress;

1) Despite the unpopularity of the bill and Obama’s sagging approval with the American public passage will finally get the topic off the table, at least temporarily. The President will then be able to focus on other priorities and perhaps craft a more populist message on issues that will help him rebound in the polls as we draw ever close to the midterm elections. With the notoriously short attention span of the American public simply switching gears is often a perfect remedy for an ailing Presidency.

2) Yes a majority of Americans disagree with the President sweeping health care legislation but there are potential gains to be made if the bill is passed on two fronts. First it will energize Democrats, most of whom are already strongly supportive of reform. Secondly, for the millions of wavering moderates and independents passage will at least show some measure of strong leadership on the part of the President. While many will continue to disagree with Obama on the issue itself, a Commander in Chief who is viewed as strong and decisive even in the face of scrutiny is someone who generally gains grudging respect from an American public always supportive of strong leadership.

3) Passage will be the final nail in the coffin for Obama and Democrats, at least for the rest of 2010 and perhaps up through 2012 as well. Without the passage of health care reform Obama still has something of a “get out of jail free” card to play. Ramming through the current legislation however will convince conservatives that the President’s character and liberal agenda must be attacked mercilessly. The formation of an even stronger movement than that of the “Tea Party” will come about rallying around smaller government issues and fiscal responsibility. Republicans in Congress meanwhile, with the prospects of already larger numbers come 2011, will unify against Obama and the Democrats derailing most of the President’s legislation from now until the end of his first-term.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Martinez Monsivais

Analysis: Even odds on "Obamacare" getting through Congress?

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Intrade is giving even odds to the passage of the latest version of President Obama’s health care plan. Public opposition meanwhile remains steady and consistent through the partisan storm.

The latest market data from Intrade points to a significant shift in the right direction for “Obamacare” in recent days. After bottoming out at 33% in January following Scott Brown’s victory in the Massachusetts special-election for Senate confidence has rebounded up to 52%. But do these improving market odds, particularly when stacked up next to the consistent opposition of the American public, really point to an improved likelihood of passage for the embattled health care reform bill? Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com investigates.

Silver looks at a number of factors contributing to the supposed momentum of the bill since Brown’s stunning victory temporarily derailed hopes of passage in late-January. He then highlights some of the negative factors that could impede the progress of health care reform.

First off Silver points towards the obvious fact that it seems the White House has gone all-in. Hoping to serve merely as a catalyst or pulpit for passage of the bill has now given way to a hands on approach that has probably strapped Obama’s political life, and that of his party, to the success or failure of cutting a deal and getting a bill. Adding Republican proposals and holding a bipartisan summit have shown the President is not only willing but forced to get his hands dirty on the subject.

Barring a messy floor fight the Democrats already have 46 committed votes in the Senate and Silver does not see any reason to believe that 50 isn't easily obtainable. The reconciliation bill also features aspects that are largely agreed upon on both sides of the political isle. Decreasing the excise tax, eliminating kickbacks, reformatting formulas and subsidies while creating some sort of oversight outweigh the more controversial issues that are mostly out of the way at this point. The battle over the language of the bill and how it pertains to abortion persists but the White House can now take solace in the fact that it appears the House is ready to get aggressive and act first on health care reform.

Silver then suggests that rate increases from Anthem and other private insurers give the Democratic argument some backbone and allow them a stronger moral case on the subject as well as some helpful talking points while on the campaign trail. Adding political cover to such a sticky subject during an election year is probably encouraging to Democrats and the handful of moderate Republicans alike. Furthermore as a small bonus prize to the proceedings it appears that at least one “nay” vote is ready to exit his seat in the House. Embroiled in a sex scandal Eric Massa of New York may be planning to retire which would bring down the number of votes needed for passage in the House from 217 to 216.

On the flip-side Silver points out five additional factors that, if the bill dies in Congress once again, will be the chief culprits in the extinguishing of health care reform.

Bart Stupak hasn’t nudged in his opposition to the bill based on its abortion language. Several notable Democrats including Dennis Kucinich could join Stupak’s ranks and vote against the measure. Silver points the abortion subject as being a source of political cover for already wavering "Blue Dog" Democrats and those residing in competitive and/or moderate voting districts opposed to the reform bill. Secondly, just as Eric Massa’s retirement or resignation could improve the numbers for “Obamacare” supporters the loss of three Democrats; Jack Murtha, Neil Abercrombie and Robert Wexler make the math of adding up to 217-votes all the more difficult.

The Democratic brand name has also taken a hit over the past year and won’t help in the PR war to assist with the passage of this reform bill. Alarmed at the possibility of losing congressional control this November while sifting through the loss of certain colleagues by way of retirement, death or scandal would be an easy way to convince many embattled Dems to run to the political middle safeground and oppose the bill. As previously mentioned the American public has been consistently opposed to health care reform as indicated in most polls. Pollster.com who takes the figures from a number of organizations into consideration finds the current average rests at 42.5% in support of and 50.2% opposed. Measurements of likely voters, registered votes and adults in general all find more opposition than support for the current bill.

While President Obama’s bipartisan summit was probably necessary in damage control for the majority of the public who was strongly against the idea of the Democrats ramming through a bill without Republican support, it was, according to Silver, an underwhelming affair. The American public, as previously mentioned and indicated through polls, seems to have fairly locked in opinions on the subject. Lastly there is the ticking clock factor. The elections are eight months away, many states are already holding their primaries and the focus of both the public and in Washington will be dealing with the midterms more than it will the passage of health care reform.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / J. SCOTT APPLEWHITE

Health care reform: Polling the reasons for support, opposition and understanding of the issue

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Senate Democrats are finally on the verge of passing health care reform legislation. With every Democratic, including two left-leaning independents, in favor and all forty Republicans in opposition the bill is expected to be signed into law by President Obama prior to Christmas day.

It will be interesting to see what effect the passage of the bill has on the perceptions of the American public as we keep a watchful eye on new polls emerging in the coming days. Most polls at present show considerable majorities against the current version of the bill. Recently released surveys from Rasmussen Reports and CNN/Opinion Research indicate the level of support is mired in the lower 40-percentiles with opposition reaching up to the mid and high-50s.

The Kaiser Family Foundation recently chimed in on the state of health care with a survey of over 1,200 randomly selected samples. Their elaborate charts have been tracking support and opposition on any number of issues since mid-February.

Kaiser reports 54% want health care reform immediately. That is a modest drop from 58% in November. The highest total was reported in February when 62% were in favor of immediate action on the issue. The lowest total meanwhile was measured in August at 53%. Kaiser shows slipping optimism from the public as to whether the country will be better or worse off with health care reform. Although the number who think America will be better off outnumbers those who think the country will be worse off by a margin of 45-31% that number has tumbled dramatically from a 54-27% split just last month. When asked the same question regarding their own family responders were divided by a 35-27% margin.

The Kaiser survey then broke down the 35% who claimed their families would be better off with health care reform into five separate sub-groupings. 31% believe a new bill would help control costs as the main reason for their support. 26% think they will be better able to maintain coverage for their whole family even in the event of one or both parents losing their job. 13% think reform will help their families more by allowing them to see the doctor more often and an identical percentage estimate the positive benefits to their country as a whole as the main reason. Lastly 6% of poll responders like the idea of having better choices and greater benefits.

On the flip side Kaiser looked at the 27% of those who claimed a new health care system would harm their families. The largest of four sub-groupings (47%) claimed the cost too high to afford for themselves, future generations or country at large as the primary reason for their opposition. One-third (33%) of the public claimed the passage of a new bill would negatively affect current health care plans that an individual may already be happy with as well as create additional problems with access and coverage. Similarly one in nine adults (11%) have Medicare related concerns that range from not having the same benefits from before to the fear that coverage to seniors could be cut off. The last 11% believe the government to be a bad manager for administrating health care and have a more general concern of the role of big government control.

Broken down by party over two-thirds (67%) of Democrats believe the country to be better off as a whole if health care reform is passed by the President and Congress. That figure represents a six-point drop from last month and is down from a high of 76% in April and June however. Republicans are more opposed than ever to a new plan with just 21% currently of the opinion that America will be better off down from a high of 38% in February. The steepest decline is with independents however. Falling sharply from percentages in the low to mid-50s in recent months just 38% of independents now believe the country will be better off for new health care reform.

Seniors are vastly more negative toward the possible effects of health care reform than younger adults. 52% of the over-65 crowd believes things would be worse off for themselves with a new bill against just 21% who think they’ll be better. Those younger are more optimistic about the fate of their elders regarding the changes stemming from reform. By a margin of 45-26% those under-65 think seniors will be better off with around one in five total not thinking the changes will make that much difference either way.

The public is fairly evenly divided in grading the role of the media on the issue and most Americans are tuned in to the debate. More (38%) think the news media has done a very good or excellent job in describing the different health care proposals and what they mean them and their families than those who feel they’ve done poorly (28%). 32% however think the media has done only a fair job in their coverage according to the Kaiser Family survey. Over three-quarters (76%) of the public has been following the health care discussions with 34% suggesting they’ve been following very closely. The level of attention and activism is up from the previous major health care issue in America back in February of 1994.

Despite their level of attention to the subject much of the public remains confused as to where their local representatives stand. Only 48% know what the positions their local Senators have on health care reform and just 42% know what side of the fence their district Congressional representative is sitting. Lastly there remains the possibility of considerable confusion and a lack of understand on the issue by the American people. When asked the following question regarding public option and the proposed government-administered plan to compete with private insurers 47% believe this option to be open to anyone with an additional 23% unsure. The correct answer that claimed such an option would be available only to those without employer coverage was scored accurately by just 30% of poll responders.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / EVAN VUCCI

Poll: Support for health care plan plummets, Democrats push ahead

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The big discussion in Washington begins just as the American public is voicing its strongest opposition to date.

A day after the Senate begins debate on health care legislation a new survey from Rasmussen Reports shows the highest level of opposition yet recorded. In a staggering reversal from last week the poll suggests just 38% of American voters now favor the Democratic health care plan against 56% who are opposed. The previous poll taken on November 13-14 showed support had grown to its highest level since mid-September with 47% of voters in favor against 49% in opposition.

This past weekend Senate Democrats narrowly obtained the sixty vote supermajority needed to commence with talks free from the threat of Republican filibuster tactics. As reported on by Time Magazine’s Karen Tumulty in an article from this morning, the Republicans are stepping up their efforts to derail the Democratic plan.

The minority intends to launch a series of surgical strikes on key parts of the bill, and to raise questions about whether it all adds up to what the Democrats are claiming…What they [Republicans] are counting on now, and what they are hoping to inflame, is public doubt. – Karen Tumulty / Time

The latest Rasmussen poll that also showed support for the plan at 45% earlier this month may come as sobering news to the Democratic Party’s aspirations of passing legislation before the end of the year. Those “strongly” in favor of the plan are outnumbered by those strongly against by better than a two to one ratio (21-43%). Also according to Rasmussen just 16% of voters believe health care costs will go down with the passage of this current plan against 60% who think they will go up. Nearly three-quarters of Democrats (73%) favor the plan but 83% of Republicans are against it, as are seven in ten non-affiliated voters. Democrats consider health care reform the top priority for President Obama while Republicans and unafilliateds side with debt reduction as being his most important job.

Fox News is also on the beat and reporting on survey results that are even harsher than those put forth by Rasmussen. The Fox poll shows support for the plan stuck at 35%, its average from the past four months. As Americans become more educated on the reform proposals of Congress the opposition continues to increase, standing now at 51%. The high level of opposition being tracked in recent polls is not at the expense of the numbers of those seeking significant changes to our health care system. Quinnipiac in a recent survey shows that 61% of the American public is eager for reform even as it opposes the current Democratic plan on the table.

Gallup just released a poll focusing its attention on the full list of health problems being cited by the American public. Access to health care again leads the list with nearly a third of poll responders (32%) considering it to be their top concern. While that figure has remained fairly steady from last year the emergence of the H1N1 “swine flu” pandemic has entered the new list at 16%. Obesity and cancer have registered declines but its concern over the cost of health care, down seven-points to 18%, that marks the most notable drop from November of 2008.

President Obama who had until recently maintained the majority of approval from Americans has cratered below 50% in several polls. It is specifically his lack of popularity on the issue of health care that has inflicted the most damage to his credibility with the public. The previously mentioned new poll from Qunnipiac University pegs the President’s approval on health care at a 41-53% positive to negative margin. Just 19% think that Obama can ram home the health care plan while keeping his promise not to add to the federal deficit - 72% disagree.

In spite of concern and negativity surrounding the issue Senate Democrats are well aware that the greatest challenge is not with the Republicans or even the current mindset of the American public. Top priority for majority leader Harry Reid is to keep his own party in line. The big four Senators who tentatively voted with Reid on Saturday but could sink the plan are centrist’s; Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana and notable independent Joe Lieberman of Connecticut. Not only are three of the four Senators from heavily Republican-leaning states Lieberman is viewed at best as a wavering Democrat, troubled by economic concerns and a government run plan allowing for public option.

These four votes could be the key for Democrats in their plan for a victory on health care reform. Winning over the hearts and minds of the American public however represents another task altogether.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / ALEX BRANDON

Poll: Opposition to health care reform drops, Americans still divided

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The slowly beating heart of health care reform just received a shot of adrenaline from three new polls released this week. While it’s too soon to suggest that the Democratic proposals for reform have rebounded to the point of a full upward climb this recent bounce tracked by no less than three major pollsters is noteworthy.

This morning the new AP-GFK survey shows that an even number of Americans (40-40%) supporting and opposing the health care reform plans being discussed by Congress. This is a rather dramatic improvement from a month ago when that same survey indicated that just 34% supported the plan against 49% who were opposed. Rasmussen Reports mirrors those findings tracking the issue weekly. While still in the negative the 46% of those favoring and 50% of those opposed is up from a 41-56% low point measured just a week and a half ago.

Past Gallup surveys have tended to show less resistance from the American public toward President Obama and Congressional Democrats’ reform proposals. Still there is a modest bounce even from their last poll on the topic. Asking adults whether they’d recommend their local representative vote for a reform bill 40% are shown to be in favor against 36% who are now opposed and 25% without an opinion. This is up modestly from a 38-40-22% split measured three weeks earlier. When party “leaners” are taking into consideration opposition to health care reform is now firmly in the minority with just 41% saying they would tell their representatives to vote against and 51% favoring a “yay” vote.

Moving the attention back to the AP-GFK survey, 46% of Americans now claim health care to be an extremely important issue. For President Obama there has been an improvement as well. Obama gets the first positive marks he has received on his handling of the issue since mid-July with 48% approving against 47% who still disapprove. The elderly in particular have shown a marked increase in their support for a plan, up sixteen-points from the last AP poll.

Americans seem to have conflicting opinions when it comes to the necessity of bipartisan cooperation between the two major parties on the issue. Up six-points from a month ago 62% think a bill supported by both Democrats and Republicans in Congress is important. Also up six-points from a month ago however are the number of those (34%) who think President Obama and Democrats should move ahead in their desire to pass a bill even without Republican support.

The divide between parties is still as evident as it has been in recent surveys. Gallup indicates that 66% of Democrats would advise their member of congress to vote for a bill but just 16% of Republicans would do the same. According to Rasmussen 78% of Democrats favor a the new plan but that number is essentially flipped with eight in ten Republicans opposed to the reform bill. Both polls show considerably more political independents opposed to health care reform than in favor of it meaning President Obama and his allies in Congress still have a long way to go on the issue.

Poll: Approval of health care reform varies by state, concerns linger nationwide

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This morning Rasmussen Reports released in video form the results of yet another health care poll. Unlike others however this one takes a look at the approval, or lack thereof, for President Obama and Congressional Democrats reform proposals.

Ten states were weeded out and looked at specifically. There was a healthy range of some of more liberal spots in the country (Massachusetts, Connecticut), left-leaners (New Jersey, Minnesota) conservative bastions (Texas), right-leaners (Virginia, North Carolina) and a few battleground states in between (Colorado, New Hampshire, Nevada). The results continue to illustrate the struggles that favorable politicians and reform backers have in convincing the general public of the need of this current version of health care reform.

Rasmussen’s nationwide tracking of the health care issue indicates that over the past ten days of polling (9/8 – 9/18) a combined average of 45.6% Americans approve and 51.4% disapprove of the Democratic administration’s reform plan. These overall numbers are to an extent reflected by the tracking of responses from those citizens residing in the aforementioned states.

Strongest in favor of the new health care plan are not surprisingly the two most Democratic supporting states on our list of ten. Massachusetts sides with the reform proposal by a margin of 52-44% and Connecticut voters are supportive to the tune of 52-46%. President Obama in the 2008 election carried both New England states by margins of 26% and 23% respectively. Next on the list in terms of favorability is New Jersey splitting its voters by a 50-47% margin. The Garden State is one of the precious few where a majority or near majority of voters are in favor of the Democratic health care plan, it’s also one embroiled in a testy Governor’s race. Not surprisingly with the modest approval for reform expressed by New Jersey’s voters incumbent Governor and Democrat Jon Corzine has run ads and campaigned in favor of President Obama’s health care plan.

Two other states on the list, Colorado and Minnesota also show a plurality of voters who favor the current health care reform plan. President Obama and the Democrats face a tougher challenge in the swing-state of New Hampshire however where voters are against the plan 50-47%. Also against by solid percentages are three key states where the Democratic Party made major gains in the last election. Virginia is opposed by a 51-46% margin, Nevada disapproves to the tune of 52-45% and 53% of North Carolina voters are against current reform legislation against just 44% who would like to see it passed.

The reddest of states on Rasmussen’s featured list of ten, Texas, is overwhelmingly against the push for reform brought forth by the President and Democratically controlled Congress. By a margin of 58-40% Texans say “no”. This was of course a state that voted against Obama by nearly ten percentage-points in the last election but also one that echoes many of the fears being expressed by Americans nationwide.

Three subsets of questions asked to New Jersey, Connecticut and Texas voters go into greater detail regarding the negative perceptions of reform. 500 likely voters in New Jersey expressed concern with the overall quality of coverage. In this poll only 29% feel that health care will improve under the new plan against 45% who think it will get worse. Two in ten Garden State voters assume things will stay about the same as they are currently. In Texas the economic impact of new health care legislation is viewed harshly. Only 9% of a thousand polled in the Lone State State are confident the federal deficit will be reduced by reform against 68% who think it will increase the deficit and 15% who say it will have no impact.

Even in left-leaning Connecticut where a majority of voters approve of reform legislation many are still pessimistic of its cost benefits. 43% expect the price of health care coverage to go up against just 24% who expect to see a decrease. Another 26% figure it to stay about the same and 7% remain uncertain.

Poll: Support for health care reform retreats to pre-speech levels

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Bounces and bubbles are two of the more common terms used by pollsters in American politics. Lately they have been used to describe the post-speech increase in the number of voters who had begun siding with President Obama’s proposals to overhaul health care.

While there has been some good news for the administration since the President’s major address before Congress last week according to at least two new polls it would appear the bouncing ball of confidence is resettling and the bubble is bursting.

The latest dose of bad medicine for Obama and supporters of health care reform comes from surveys conducted by Rasmussen and USA Today/Gallup. Last Thursday Rasmussen reported that 44% of voters were in favor of the President’s health care plan. Seven days later those numbers are back to being identical to the aforementioned total. This after an early-week post-speech bounce that saw them climb to a 51-46% approval to disapproval.

CNN/Opinion Research closely mirrored the previous findings from Rasmussen and other polling outlets. Their figures also indicated a rise to 51% support for Obama’s plan after it had been at only 44% prior to the President’s speech. New CNN numbers are likely to arrive in the coming days. For now USA Today offers up its own batch of damaging numbers for the administration and its mission to win over the hearts and minds of the American public.

When asked whether they would advise their member of congress to vote for or against a health care this year 38% were in favor of a yay vote, 40% were against and 22% had no opinion. The 22% of those without a strong opinion from the 1,030 adults polled broke fairly even (50-47%) for and against their representative voting on a bill. Other figures indicate that while a small plurality of adults think health care coverage in America will improve with the passing of a bill only 34% think the costs will improve and just 30% believe the overall quality will get better against 41% who think it will get worse.

Even worse is the confidence those have in Obama’s pledge not to raise taxes on middle income families to help pay for his reform proposals. 60% of Americans do not believe such goals can be accomplished without raising taxes against just 38% who are confident.

Reflecting back on the Rasmussen survey the figures suggest a remarkably stable position coming from the American public. Even as the issue continues to dominate headlines and with education on the topic surely increases as well the number of those opposed to the President’s plan (53%) has been relatively stable since mid-July. Scott Rasmussen points out in the Wall Street journal that while many Americans see the logic in reform for the system as a whole 68% of them rate their own coverage as good or excellent. Why tinker with a system you are happy with, especially if you fear that you have more to lose than to gain?

One thing Americans do seem more confident about is the political muscle of President Obama and Democrats to pass reform before the end of the year. Half think passage is at least somewhat likely but a far smaller percentage of the public (27%) believes that the quality of care will actually improve in the event of a new bill. That total is fairly consistent with the quarter of Americans who strongly support the President's plan.

While any number of news stories report that Democrats and Republicans are far from uniting on a compromise, the new numbers also show support for reform from the American public retreating to pre-speech numbers. Furthermore with around three-quarters of the American public somewhat against, strongly opposed or remaining uncertain of health care reform the path to success in all aspects of the issue remains a treacherous one traveled for the President.

Health care debate: Public Opinion vs. Facts?

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President Obama and Congressional Democrats seem determined to push health care reform through by any means necessary. Now perhaps without the assistance of even their fellow counterparts from just across the political aisle.

Over the past few weeks the Obama Adminstration and Democrats have found that convincing the public that a comprehensive plan to adjust the nature and process of the health care system in America to be a massive struggle. Proponents have been shouted down at town-hall meetings, certain polls have shown Republicans scoring higher marks than Democrats in their handling of the issue and the President’s numbers on health care and overall job approval ratings have slipped considerably.

Nearly unchanged from three weeks ago the latest NBC News poll shows that just 41% of adults approve of the way President Obama is handling the issue of health care reform against 47% who do not approve. Even worse for Obama is the ever growing war of perception that he and his Democratic cohorts seem to be on the losing end of. By a 42-36% margin a plurality of adults interviewed in the same NBC poll think the President’s new “plans for health care” are a bad idea.

Looking to get back out in front of the issue the President discussed his proposals with Philadelphia’s own Michael Smerconish of 1210 AM, “The Big Talker” earlier yesterday. Obama is standing by his position of public option being a key aspect of any mass overhaul legislation regarding health care. “I see nothing wrong with having public option as one choice” the President said, adding that no one should be “obligated to go into a public plan.”

There are any number of questions and heated debates being directed at and discussed between politicians and regular citizens alike. Perhaps finding out whether those on the side that object to reform are really grasping the issue is just as important? In short, do the nay-sayers, millions of members strong, have it wrong? Calvin Woodward of the Associated Press recently brought to light some of the myths surrounding the health care reform issue.

The judgment is harsh in a new poll that finds Americans worried about the government taking over health insurance, cutting off treatment to the elderly and giving coverage to illegal immigrants. Harsh, but not based on facts. – Calvin Woodward (AP)

Woodward points out that according to a recent ABC poll some 45% of Americans believe overhaul will allow the government to decide when to stop caring for the elderly. In truth nothing being discussed in regards to reform proposals would give the government that kind of authority and much of the public misconception has been fueled by right-wing hysteria over “death panels”, and “government encouraged euthanasia” Woodward claims.

By a margin of 55-34% Americans also believe overhaul will give coverage to illegal immigrants even though none of the negotiated proposals provide for such. A majority of Americans also see the government completely taking over the health care system forcing those to join a government plan. The facts on the other hand suggest that President Obama’s government plan is just one option where citizens will not be forced but have the choice to join, and that it competes with private insurers. Lastly on the hot-button topic of abortion nearly half of poll responders expect their tax dollars to go towards funding the controversial medical procedure. Another misconception prevails here according to Woodward who claims “the procedure would be paid for with dollars from beneficiary premiums, not from federal funds.”

Questioning the level of understanding as it’s tied to public opinion a recent Gallup study finds that universal health care coverage generally gets high marks where it has been implemented abroad. Countries that are part of the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) are found to express more confidence overall in their national health care system when they have universal coverage than countries that do not. Including many industrialized countries in Europe and Asia when asked the question of whether their citizens are satisfied with availability of quality health care 79% with universal coverage answered “yes”, against 66% who answered the same from countries without a national plan. In terms of the overall confidence in their system foreign citizens of OECD countries offering universal coverage were more confident by a margin of 73-60% over those who do not have it.

Many pundits including Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com are well aware that success on a volitale topic such as health care reform depends on who effectively shaping their message and winning the PR battle. Democrats may be ready as Silver suggests to “toughen up on the issue” and go it alone without collaboration from Republicans in congress. Watering down Democratic proposals hasn’t worked in the sense of compromising or attracting moderate support on the issue, just as it has frustrated the core liberal wing of their party.

Heading out of recess with momentum is essential and the next several weeks could be the make or break period for reform advocates - this purely in the sense of the political numbers game. In the meantime success in turning the tide of public opinion will likely have to arrive by way of facts over rhetoric.

Poll: Public lacks confidence in Congressional understanding of health care reform

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The American public is divided on the issue of health care reform. Regardless as to what side of the ideological fence they sit most are not confident that Congress has a grasp on the issue.

The most recent Gallup poll on the topic finds that many American citizens while admittedly do not have a strong understand of the complexities of health care reform, they are even less confident that their leaders do. 48% of adults suggest they have a good understanding of the issue against 51% who feel they do not. By a whopping disparity only 27% think Congress has a good handle on health care as opposed to 66% who think they disagree.

Such a low percentage corresponds with just 17% of American voters who claim to have high confidence in Congress. Interestingly a deeper look into Gallup’s numbers indicate that by a 35% plurality most voters in this latest survey feel that neither they nor their politicians have a good understand of the health care reform topic.

Less than a week ago another Gallup survey indicated no clear consensus on the on the desire for health care reform. Although 71% favored some sort of new legislation, far less than half (41%) considered it high enough a priority that it needs to be passed before the end of 2009, and 29% are either unsure or don’t not want it passed at all. Using some particularly strong wording the Kaiser Family Foundation randomly sampled over 1,200 adults earlier this month. Their findings showed that while a majority of Americans (56%) want the government to “take on health care reform right now”, a growing number of people (39%) do not think our country can afford to tackle the issue.

Whereas confidence in Congress on a variety of issues - health care included - is at historic lows, the confidence Americans have in President Obama handling the issue has also slipped. According to a two-week old ABC/Washington Post poll less than 50% approve of the President’s handling of issue. His approval to disapproval split of just five percentage points (49-44%) is down from a fourteen point margin in mid-June.

Pessimism about the effectiveness of health care legislation is also conveyed in two recent polls from the previously mentioned Kaiser Family Foundation and Rasmussen Reports.

A majority of Americans (53%) think that the passing of a new health care plan either would make things worse off or keep about the same. This includes topic ranges from the quality of care, cost, choice of doctors and hospital waiting times. Only when asked the question of whether the country as a whole would be better off with health care reform do a majority (51%) of Americans think new legislation would make things better according to the Kaiser Family study.

Rasmussen who has shown particular negative numbers for Obama and the Democrats as of late actually indicates that 49% of voters are against the new reform proposals brought forth by the President and Dems in congress. This against just 47% who favor the measure. Just 23% of voters believe new legislation will lead to lower costs against 53% who say medical treatment will become less affordable.

While it seems a bipartisan effort is now underway hammering out the details of new legislation for health care reform, convincing the masses that a new program will be a better program presents a different challenge all together.