READ FULL STORY HERENo major shakeups in the race for Arlen Specter’s Senate seat in Pennsylvania. The latest round of surveys from Rasmussen Reports indicate Republican Pat Toomey holding a solid lead over Specter and a modest advantage over Joe Sestak all the while Specter continues to lead his challenger for the upcoming Democratic Primary.
Toomey’s 49-40% lead over Arlen Specter is identical to last month’s Rasmussen poll that also showed a nine-point advantage. Since then both candidates have picked up a couple of points in support from previously undecided voters but with Toomey’s steady lead, a shrinking number of uncommitted voters to attract and an election calendar growing shorter by the day the news has to be welcoming to the Republican challenger.
Upstart congressman Joe Sestak runs better against Toomey for a second-straight month but continues to trail Specter in their upcoming May 18th primary for the Democratic nomination. Toomey is in front of Sestak 42-37% and a considerable number of Pennsylvania voters (15%) remain undecided on either candidate. Unfortunately for Sestak he hasn’t been able to take a sizeable chunk out of the longtime Senator Specter’s lead within the party although his deficit of eleven-percentage points is slightly smaller than the 13% hole he was in last month.
Most view the race for Senate in Pennsylvania as a referendum on Arlen Specter’s personal popularity, or lack thereof, following a party switch last year and his continued support for President Obama’s controversial health care plan. Specter is viewed very unfavorably by far more voters (34%) than the number who view him very favorably (14%). Meanwhile support for the President’s health care plan is modestly lower in the Keystone State than it is nationally. 41% in Pennsylvania favor the plan but 58% are opposed. The latest Rasmussen tracking on the topic nationally shows Americans divided by a margin of 43-53%.
Joe Sestak earns the strong support of one in ten Pennsylvania voters (10%) and is strongly rejected by 11%. Pat Toomey not surprisingly is the most popular of all candidates with a 17% very favorable and an 11% very unfavorable rating.
While viewed as battleground state for many elections both locally and nationally Pennsylvania appears to have moved to the political left in recent years. A Republican presidential candidate has not carried the state since 1988 and recent congressional and gubernatorial elections have favored Democratic candidates considerably. Barack Obama won Pennsylvania by 10.5% over John McCain in 2008 and an Ed Rendell captured reelection for Governor by nearly twenty-points over Republican Lynn Swann in 2006. That said the President’s job approval, mirroring national totals, is 48% among voters in the Keystone State with 51% disapproving. Governor Rendell meanwhile is also modestly unpopular to the tune of a 47-52% approval to disapproval rating.
PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / CAROLYN KASTER
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