Analysis: Where will the 2010 midterms rank among greatest political comebacks?

With so much political talk of late revolving about the upcoming midterm elections it might be as good a time as any to take a look back. The Republican Party seems primed for a comeback in 2010 but whether than can retake both chambers of Congress or simply cut into the Democrats relatively large lead remains to be seen.

The GOP will need a net gain of forty seats to take back the House of Representatives and, as reported on previously, projection estimates range from anywhere to the upper-teens in seats added to as many as fifty. Ten victories in the Senate meanwhile will be necessary for control and most publications peg the Republican’s odds as fairly slim but hardly impossible in achieving that goal.

Below is a list of the ten biggest midterm election years for either party since the start of the 20th century. There have been 55-congressional elections over that period and 27 that have not coincided with a Presidential campaign.

Rank: 10-tied, Year: 2006, Party: Democratic, House: +31, Senate: +6

Notes: The current political landscape of America was dramatically shaped by the events of 2006. With historically low approval ratings President George W. Bush suffered major loses in the midterms that year during his sixth year in office. By historical standards the Democrats’ 31-House victories and six Senate pickups are fairly modest. It was important however in giving them control of both chambers of Congress for the first time since 1992. Harry Reid was ushered in as Senate Majority Leader and Nancy Pelosi became the first female Speaker of the House as a result of the Democrats congressional victories and a popular vote take of nearly 54%.

Rank: 10-tied, Year: 1966, Party: Republican, House: +47, Senate: +3

Notes: Many point to 1966 as the beginning of what would later be known as the “Republican Revolution” that culminated in Ronald Reagan’s realigning Presidential election of 1980. Due in a large part to President Lyndon Johnson’s crumbling popularity, the Vietnam War, race riots and conservative rejection to big government spending the GOP picked up 47-House seats and added an additional three in the Senate. Due to their large gains in Congress through the late 50s and early-60s the Democrats maintained a substantial majority in both chambers but the Republican comeback helped pave the way to Richard Nixon’s improbable election victory for President just two years later.

Rank: 9, Year: 1974, Party: Democratic, House: +49, Senate: +4

Notes: If 1966 was a year where the Republican Party engineered an impressive comeback that lead to two Richard Nixon election victories 1974 was the year that Nixon administration came crumbling down. It was miserable year for Republicans who were stunned by the President’s resignation after the Watergate scandal and were additionally criticized by the public after Gerald Ford’s subsequent pardoning of the now former President Nixon. Some close victories in the Senate increased the Democrats advantage to 61-38 over the Republicans and they picked up nearly 50 additional seats in the House after winning over 57% of the popular vote.

Rank: 8, Year: 1922, Party: Democratic, House: +76, Senate: +5

Notes: Undermined by a split in party leadership the Republicans suffered major midterm defeats, particularly in the House, in 1922. Warren G. Harding was riding a strong economy and successful Presidency two-years into his first time in the White House but at congressional levels the GOP had become divided by conservative and progressive factions within their party. Their massive 302-131 advantage in the House after Harding’s landslide victory in 1920 would erode to a 225-207 advantage over their Democratic rivals by way of 77 pickups for the minority party. The Republicans also lost six-seats in the Senate; five to the Democrats and one more to Henrik Shipstead of the Farm Labor Party. The GOP retained a 57-41-1 majority in the Senate.

Rank: 7, Year: 1942, Party: Republican, House: +47, Senate: +9

Notes: The outbreak of World War II and weariness over the long tenure of the Franklin Roosevelt administration resulted in significant Democratic loses in 1942. Breaking with tradition Roosevelt ran and won a third-term for President in 1940. The move was viewed with controversy, particularly by the political right. Additional weariness over FDR’s policies regarding the war and economy just loosening itself from the grips of the prolonged Great Depression eroded significant Democratic majorities in Congress. With 47-victories the Republicans climbed back to a modest 222-209 deficit in the House. Their impressive nine Senate wins meanwhile helped shrink what was a massive Democratic majority.

Rank: 6, Year: 1994, Party: Republican, House: +54, Senate: +8

Notes: it’s difficult to talk about 2010 without being reminded of 1994. That was the year the Republican Party, through a massive grassroots effort, took back both chambers of Congress with impressive margins of victory. Although their roughly six-point victory in the popular vote nationally appears fairly modest the cumulative result was an historic thumping. Winning 54-seats in the House and another eight in the Senate the GOP went from being a considerably minority party to the clear majority in the middle of President Bill Clinton’s mercurial first term in office. Becoming the first House Speaker to lose his seat since the Civil War Democrat Tom Foley gave way to Republican Newt Gingrich who would become the symbolic leader of the Republican Party for the rest of the decade.

Rank: 5, Year: 1930, Party: Democratic, House: +52, Senate: +8

Notes: The failing economy that presaged the Great Depression of the 1930s resulted in predictable and resounding loses for the Republican Party in the 1930 midterm elections. Similar by numbers to what took place in the opposite direction in 1994 the impact of what took place decades earlier gets our edge as slightly more significant due its paving of the way for Franklin Roosevelt’s landslide victory in 1932 and sustained Democratic majorities for many years to come. Eight Senate victories left the Democrats just one seat shy of a majority although the Farmer-Labor with one seat acted as a strong ally to Democrats and essentially balanced the chamber. The GOP retained a narrow edge in the House as well but special election victories for the Democrats after the election helped them to a 218-216 lead.

Rank: 4, Year: 1938, Party: Republican, House: +81, Senate: +6

Notes: Although majorities in the House and Senate were still many years away for the Republican Party the GOP did mount an impressive comeback in 1938. It was the middle of President Franklin Roosevelt’s second term. FDR swept to a landslide victory in 1936 and helped usher in an era of political dominance for his Democratic Party, but many rejected his policies and political decisions. Confidence in the “New Deal” was perhaps weakened by an economic recession that hit in 1937. The President’s infamous “court packing” plan was also met with heavy resistance from the GOP and public alike. Then there was the simply fact that with such large majorities and a number of freshman congressman on board after 1936 it would simply be difficult to defend such large political territory. The Republicans won 81-House seats and six in the Senate but the Democrats retained their large majorities in both chambers.

Rank: 3, Year: 1910, Party: Democratic, House: +58, Senate: +10

Notes: Before the ratification of the 17th Amendment U.S. Senators were chosen by a state legislature. 1910 was the last midterm election where a state by state popular vote was not used, but even by then many parts of the country were adopting the new format. Struggling for years as the minority party the Democrats launched an impressive comeback in 1910 that would set the stage for Woodrow Wilson’s Presidential victories in 1912 and 1916. The Dems picked up ten House seats although they still trailed their Republican opposition by eight. Their gains in the House were more impressive. Major factions within the Republican Party between conservative followers of President William Howard Taft and progressives loyal to former party leader Teddy Roosevelt helped the Democrats win a total of 58-seats and retake control of the House. Roosevelt would go on the challenge sitting President Taft for the GOP nomination just two years later and launch an impressive albeit unsuccessful campaign as a third-party candidate for President.

Rank: 2, Year: 1946, Party: Republican, House: +55, Senate: +13

Notes: Hailed as the “greatest Republican victory since Appomattox ” by the Chicago Tribune the 1946 midterm elections swept the GOP into power in both the House and Senate for the first time since 1930. The successful Presidency of Franklin Roosevelt ended abruptly in 1945. Upon his death Vice President Harry Truman assumed the reigns but found political waters difficult to navigate. Strapped with tough choices, controversial decisions and a sagging approval rating the Republicans launched a massive attack in Congress during the 1946 midterms. Trailing 242-191 in the House the Republicans came out of 1946 with an impressive 246-188 lead. In the Senate their staggering thirteen-seat pickup swung a 57-38 deficit to a 51-45 seat majority. The Democrats failed to pickup a single Senate seat and were forced to play defense. The Republican landslide made President Truman’s stunning victory in the 1948 election all the more impressive. 1946 was also notable for the addition of two freshman congressman to the House; John F. Kennedy of Massachusetts and Richard M. Nixon of California .

Rank: 1, Year: 1958, Party: Democratic, House: +49, Senate: +16

Notes: It was a close call but our winner for most impressive midterm election year goes to the Democratic Party from 1958. Many moderate Republicans had come into political power following huge victories for the GOP in the 1946 election and on the coattails of popular President Dwight Eisenhower. America had enjoyed a post-war economic boom through the late-40s and 50s as well but an economic recession in 1958 reversed things temporarily. Cold-War hysteria had gripped the country but a liberal backlash to the practices of Joe McCarthy’s communist witch-hunt as well as strong labor union opposition to President Eisenhower’s right-to-work programs set the stage for a Democratic revival. Although they held a solid majority in the House and a narrow lead in the Senate the Democrats 49-House pickups and whopping sixteen-Senate victories ushered in a second wave of political dominance for the Democrats that had started under FDR in the 30s. Successes in 1958 helped set the stage for John F. Kennedy’s narrow victory in the 1960 Presidential election and gained both he and successor Lyndon Johnson favorable support towards their major social and economic programs of the 1960s.

Analysis: Republicans will make midterm gains, but taking back Congress is doubtful for 2010

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After making impressive gains since 2006 that included a sweeping mandate in the Oval Office Democrats appear stuck in a rut. Republicans are energized meanwhile and have crafted a message of fiscal responsibility while taking advantage of the low approval of the Democratically controlled Congress and shrinking popularity of President Obama. It all sounds familiar.

Cries of 1994, the year the GOP gained 52-seats to take back control of the House of the Representatives, can be heard. Health care was a big issue then just as it is now. The Democrats had a President occupying the White House but struggling with a shaky approval rating in his second year, just as they do now. Many political observers have talked about the possibility of a Republican renaissance in 2010 even while polls show them still licking their wounds from a difficult recent stretch.

One of these observers, Isaac Wood, is a contributor to Larry J. Sabato’s much hailed “Crystal Ball” website. Sabato is the director for the Center of Politics and a professor at the University of Virginia. The “Crystal Ball” was perhaps the most accurate predictor from a pool of dozens of analysts on Election Night 2006. That year Sabato and company accurately forecasted the Democrats 29-seat pickup in the House as well as their takeover of the Senate.

The Republican Party would need a net gain of 40-seats to take back the House this year and, after Scott Brown’s stunning special election victory in Massachusetts last month, a total of ten victories for Senate control. While Republican heavyweights such as Karl Rove are pointing towards factors that could pave the way for an autumn political season resembling that of 1994, Wood sees a rather modest comeback for the GOP underway.

1994 was the only time in the last 35-years that either political party picked up over 40-seats in an election. Isaac Wood does not predict the Republican wave in 2010 as strong enough to put the party back in power either. The “Crystal Ball” projects a Republican pickup of 24-30 House seats, averaging out to 27 as of February. In the Senate they see seven additional seats as likely to be filled by the GOP starting next year, three short of what is needed to recapture that body.

“Crystal Ball” labels 102-districts as being competitive in 2010. The Democrats may have hit a ceiling after impressive gains in the past two Congressional elections but there is still hope for the party that they can minimize loses this November. Barring the unforeseen the economy will of course take center stage. While job loses should continue to hinder the Democrats throughout the year, if other aspects continue to rebound and if President Obama can keep his approval ratings at or above the 50% threshold losses could be slight for the party in power.

Since World War II the average pick-up in a midterm year is 22-house seats. Currently the “Crystal Ball” shows thirteen of those seats very likely or guaranteed to fall to the Republican Party and another eighteen toss-ups or leaners could be heading in that direction over the next few months. Unlike the Democrats in 2006 however the GOP is vulnerable in a few races where they currently hold seats. The Democrats are favored to win in Delaware and Louisiana and have a good shot at picking up control of a district in Illinois as well.

As is usually the case come midterms when one party substantially outnumbers the other in Congress they also have more territory to defend. This makes the chore of keeping wide margins in tact all the more difficult. By sheer numbers as well as the political tide that favors Republicans this season fending off advances will be a difficult task for the Democrats. Beyond the competitive races there are 28-districts that the “Crystal Ball” rates as likely holds for the Dems and another nineteen leaning their direction. The GOP meanwhile has seven races leaning their direction and another fourteen likely to be retained. This gap of twenty-six seats in addition to other favorable dynamics in competitive races for Republicans helps depict their potential upside heading towards November.

Wood, Sabato and their team at “Crystal Ball” have labeled 102 of the 435-races for 2010 as being competitive. Below is the breakdown between parties;

Competitive Seats: 102-total
Democratic: 78 (28-likely, 19-leans, 18-toss, 13-leans GOP)
Republican: 24 (14-likely, 7-leans, 1-toss, 2-leans DEM)

The ceiling for the Republican Party then would be 78. That would mean Republican victories in the total number of competitive races in seats the Democrats hold without any loses suffered in the 24 the GOP currently occupies. Since only a miracle or monumental disaster for the Democrats could make that number obtainable the next relevant number is 50. This would again include the Republicans defending all 24-competitive seats they currently hold while picking up victories in every race where A) a Democrat is favored to lose, B) in a toss-up battle, or C) those that currently lean in the direction of the GOP. Again this seems like wishful thinking especially when considering Republican vulnerabilities in at least two House races and the practical impossibility of winning every race come November that they trail modestly in as of February.

The magic number of course is 40 and piecing together a scenario where Republicans can simply take back the House with a narrow majority is far more manageable.

If for instance the GOP retained all 24 of its vulnerable seats, picked up the thirteen Democratic possessions that polls show leaning Republican and the eighteen toss-up races their total would balloon to 31. To get the extra nine victories needed for a majority the GOP would then need to win slightly less than half of the nineteen races where Democrats are favored to win. They could also win a majority of those Democratic leaners or pull off a few upsets in races where they are heavy underdogs, ala Scott Brown, to help offset the strong possibility of losing control of a couple of their own seats.

While many could look at the “Crystal Ball” prediction of only 27-victories for the Republican Party as low-balling some basic statistical analysis could show a strong possibility of even less than that total. Looking back at those 102-competitive races perhaps we can attribute odds to the likelihood that each one will be retained by one party or taken away by the other. In all instances where either a Democrat and Republican candidate is “likely” to win lets assume their chances of actual victory are 90%. In races where one or the other “leans” as the favorite we’ll place their odds at 70%. “Toss-up” races then would be a 50-50 proposition.

Using these figures the Democrats would suffer several defeats but still retain an average of 51.4 of their 78 “vulnerable” seats this November, nearly 66%. The Republicans then would pickup the other 26.6 seats lost by Democratic candidates, similar to the 27 projected by the “Crystal Ball”. However we need to apply this same math to the 24-seats currently under the control of the GOP. That means Republicans on average are likely to retain 18.6 while losing 5.4 of their currently held seats, or 78% retained.

Subtracting their net losses in currently held seats from their net gains in those under Democrat control we can calculate the Republican Party will, on average, net 21.2 seats this November. That’s similar to the historical midterm average of 22 and while it shows progress for a party that has struggled in recent years it still keeps the GOP well shy of their goal to retake control of the House of the Representatives.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / STEVEN SENNE