READ FULL STORY HEREWe wait to see what political implications will stem from President Obama’s major speech last night to the American public on Afghanistan. In the meantime let’s shift our attention from broad analysis of the United States to the Garden State.
A week ago Quinnipiac University completed a couple of surveys tracking the opinion of voters in New Jersey – their first releases since the Governor’s election earlier this month. Here is a list of ten of the more interesting findings from those polls.
1) Gov. Corzine’s approval falls to new low, state legislature highly unpopular as well
Three weeks past Jon Corzine’s loss to Republican Chris Christie in his bid for reelection the Governor's job approval level has fallen to a new low. Just 31% of New Jersey voters approve of the Governor’s performance against 59% who disapprove. Corzine has struggled mostly in thirty-percentiles all year and those low figures ultimately crushed his chances of winning a second term. His rating amongst Republicans is a nearly untraceable six-percent. Also at near record low approval is the NJ state legislature. Down seven-points from June just 21% give the Democratically controlled legislature high marks. This figure includes just 17% of independents and one in ten Republicans.
2) Approval for Senators Lautenberg and Menendez inches downward
Approval for New Jersey’s Senators continues to slide downward as well. Even virtual political institutions like Frank Lautenberg are beginning to feel the heat from a disgruntled electorate. Lautenberg has been a member of the U.S. Senate since first being elected in 1982 and is the second oldest member behind only fellow Democrat Robert Byrd of West Virginia. Lautenberg’s current approval rating of 40% represents a drop of seven-points since April and his disapproval (41%) is slightly higher for one of the first times in his political career. Bob Menendez approval has also fallen by five-points since April of this year and he currently sits with a 36-37% approval to disapproval margin.
3) President Obama’s approval ratings drop, stays consistent with national numbers
As has been tracked by any number of polls recently the drop in President Obama’s popularity over the past two months is also reflected by Quinnipiac’s recent survey of New Jersey. Currently Obama has a 51% approval rating with 42% disapproving of his job performance. Interestingly those figures are essentially identical to Gallup’s measurement of voters nationwide from just this morning. The President’s approval has dropped five-points from an August survey and is down from a high of 68% recorded in mid-June. Just as is the case in most states New Jersey voters give Obama low marks on his handling of health care and the situation in Afghanistan.
4) Governor Elect Christie’s favorables hold steady, unfavorables rising
Chris Christie’s narrow victory over Governor Corzine in the Gubernatorial Election earlier this month has not translated into an increase of popular support. Christie won’t take office until January of next year but as more voters in New Jersey become familiar with the Governor Elect his popularity seems to be holding steady while his unfavorable ratings begin to rise. In June the Quinnipiac survey measured Christie at a 36% favorable rating against 16% who held a negative opinion of the Republican candidate and a large 46% who had not as of yet formed an opinion. Currently Christie is holding steady at 36% favorability but the nine-point drop in those who have not heard enough about him has been added to equal the 25% who now view him negatively.
5) Most voters see New Jersey budget in a state of crisis
A record high number of voters in the Garden State are indicated as saying the current state budget problems are somewhat or very serious. Up a whopping sixteen-points from an August poll 83% now consider the state’s budget woes to be “very” serious. Another 14% claim it be at least “somewhat” of a problem meaning that concern over New Jersey’s state budget is by and large universal. It ought to be noted that New Jersey voters have consistently shown concern over their state’s budget in recent years. The most optimistic total gathered from Quinnipiac came in December of 2002 when 35% suggested the budget problems were very serious and another 51% claimed them to be at least somewhat serious.
6) Voters consistently oppose raising of taxes, but agree on where they should be raised
When asked how best to balance the state budget a large majority of voters (68%) would prefer to see government programs and services cut before their taxes are raised. Just 23% currently feel that the raising of taxes is the best way to deal with the current budget woes. This is lower but fairly consistent with polls from recent years. Three years ago just 29% wanted to see an increase in taxes. In the event that taxes must be raised however the political parties are mostly in agreement where the increases should be implemented. Support for the raising of tolls is most popular with 32% of independents and 31% of both Democrats and Republicans in New Jersey.
7) Majority of New Jersey voters are against providing school vouchers
New Jersey voters as a whole have somewhat switched their opinion on school vouchers. When asked if they would support providing parents with tax money for school vouchers to help pay for their children to attend private or religious schools 54% are opposed to the idea against 43% who favor it. This is an increase in opposition towards the voucher program from mid-2001 when Quinnipiac showed 50% of Garden State voters in favor of such a plan against just 43% who were opposed. A narrow majority of Republicans (52%) approve of vouchers, but just 36% of Democrats and 41% of independents agree. Debates on both the side of public education and taxes play a role in shaping of public opinion on the issue.
8) A narrow majority voters are in favor of expanding early childhood education
In a close “race” 51% of New Jersey voters feel there should be an expansion of state funded early childhood education – 45% are opposed to such a measure. This is a more partisan topic than school vouchers with 71% of Democrats in favor of expanding programs and 63% of Republicans opposed to the idea. Independents (48-48%) and men (47-47%) are evenly split on the issue. There is also a racial divide with an overwhelming majority (86%) of black voters favoring more dollars for early education against just 41% of white voters who feel the same. In the area of the state closely bordering Philadelphia a very narrow 50-47% divide favor and oppose more funding.
9) Most voters believe Supreme Court Justices should be chosen by their qualifications
Once in office Governor Chris Christie will select four state Supreme Court justices. A fairly narrow majority (54%) of New Jersey voters would prefer Christie to choose his justices based on their qualifications. Four in ten meanwhile would rather he place more emphasis on the views held by each judge on controversial social issues. Although surely the 49% of Republicans and 42% of Democrats who feel the new Governor should consider the issues differ on what issues are of most importance, this poll question is relatively non-partisan. 51% of Democrats and 47% of Republicans think qualifications are the more important factor when selecting a justice - 62% of independents agree.
10) Narrow plurality of New Jersey voters oppose same-sex marriage
A hot button issue nationally is a polarizing topic in the Garden State as well. Currently 46% of voters polled by Quinnipiac support same-sex marriage against 49% who are opposed. While independents at 49-45% support to opposition are split almost evenly on the topic voters from the two major parties are very much divided. Democrats favor same-sex marriage by a margin of 60-34% whereas Republicans (25-69%) are largely opposed. Liberals favor same-sex marriage by 71% with conservatives opposed to the tune of 74%. Younger voters age 18-34 (63%), those who make over $100,000 per-year (58%) and holding college degrees (55%) are most in favor. Conversely, older voters 55+ (37%), those making less than $50,000 (39%), and not having a college degree (41%) are least in favor.
PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / CHRISTOPHER BARTH
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