READ FULL STORY HEREAfter bouncing back in October polling Arlen Specter continues to trail Republican challenger Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania’s 2010 Senate race. Toomey meanwhile has received something of an autumn bounce in his hypothetical match up against Philadelphia-area Congressman Joe Sestak.
Rasmussen Reports indicates that Pat Toomey leads Specter 46-42%, a virtually identical margin to his 45-40% lead recorded two months ago. Prior to that Toomey led by as much as twelve-points (48-36%) in August while Specter was embroiled in town hall meetings and protests.
The bigger news is the sudden the spike for Toomey against Joe Sestak. In October Rasmussen had the race at a virtual dead-heat with Sestak holding a statistically insignificant 38-37% advantage. Two-months later it is now Toomey that has jumped out in front by a 44-38% margin. Eighteen-percent of Pennsylvania voters continue to favor either another candidate for Senate or remain uncertain of their preference.
Congressman Sestak’s struggles have not been with Pat Toomey alone since October. He is also losing some ground to Specter in their imminent battle for the Democratic Party nomination. Specter has received cautious welcome by Pennsylvanian Democrats since his party switch in April. That defection was no doubt fueled as much by his 21-point hole to Toomey in polls for a Republican primary challenge as it was a result of his politically moderate policies. Still Specter has jumped out to a thirteen-point lead over Sestak for the party nomination after that lead had been reduced to 46-42% in October. Specter continues to score with women in Pennsylvania to the tune of a twenty-point lead over Sestak. The two candidates split the male vote while Specter leads amongst older voters and Sestak secures an advantage among younger Pennsylvanians.
Name recognition is a huge advantage for Arlen Specter as just six-percent of Pennsylvania voters claim to have no opinion of the five-term Senator. The problem for Specter is that many more view him unfavorably (35%) than favorably (16%). This in spite of his long tenure, moderate policies in a politically moderate state, courageous battle with Hodgkin’s lymphoma and being named as one of America’s ten best Senators by Time Magazine as recently as 2006.
Joe Sestak has seen his unfavorable numbers rise as his name recognition increases. The Seventh District Congressman is almost evenly split 11-12% among those voters holding a very favorable and very unfavorable opinion. Rasmussen also points out that Democratic Governor Ed Rendell does not offer much assistance to each of the party hopefuls in the upcoming Senate race. Just 39% of Pennsylvanians approve of Rendell’s job performance against 59% who currently disapprove. Pat Toomey has no such problem on the Republican side and fairs a bit better accordingly. He currently enjoys a 15-9% favorable to unfavorable split.
Shifting to a national perspective the number of Pennsylvanians who approve of the President’s job performance has fallen yet lies within the range of most nationwide polling. Obama is at a nearly even 50-48% split between his approval and disapproval ratings in the Keystone State. A plurality of Pennsylvanians (40-35%) oppose President Obama’s plan for Afghanistan according to Rasmussen. This in spite of their cross tabs that show a 51-33% margin in the number of those thinking the troop surge of 30,000 to be a good idea and the 46-41% in support of the President’s eighteen-month timetable for withdraw.
44% of Pennsylvanians currently favor the Democratic health care plan on the table in the Senate - 53% remain opposed. Voters are also narrowly divided on the issue of public option that has received much attention in recent days. 42% of the voting public supports the plan against 39% who are opposed. In the instance that a large number of employers will drop coverage and push their workers to adopt the government-run plan however support drops to less than a quarter (24%), with more than six in ten opposed (62%).
PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / HARAZ N. GHANBARI
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