Poll: Public opinion in the 2000s from start to finish

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With the curtain closing in the 2000s Gallup did some reflecting on the ten years that were using four separate trends to measure public opinion. Overall satisfaction with the direction of America, Presidential and Congressional job approval ratings and the most important issues of the decade were viewed in a chronological timeline.

The trend of U.S. satisfaction has been characterized overall by a steep decline in optimism as the decade of the 2000s wore on. America entered the decade widely content with itself and the direction it was headed. Nearly 70% of the public claimed to be satisfied with the direction of the country as of January 2000 according to Gallup. The first of three major declines in public optimism took place over the latter stages of 2000 and throughout most of 2001. The disputed election of President Bush and an economy suffering through a downward spiral of recession and bursting bubbles after the booming 90s saw satisfaction drop to 48% by August of 2001.

Then came the 9/11 tragedies and a blow that rattled the core of American life also helped trigger a call to unity – at least for a short while. The high point of 70% satisfaction with the direction of the United States was achieved in December of 2001. Public perception was sent downward again however as the positive effects of the 9/11 aftermath seemingly began to dissipate. By mid-2002 satisfaction was being recorded at virtually identical totals as it was a month before the tragedy a year earlier.

It has essentially been dropping ever since. Average approval fell to 46% in 2003, the year the Iraq War began splintering both the public and media. The heated election year of 2004 continued the decline now at 43%. By 2005 it had fallen to 38%. The year of 2006 was characterized by plummeting Bush approval ratings and slipping public confidence shooting the number of those satisfied down even further to 31%. By 2007 it had dipped further to 28% and by the beginning of 2008 public satisfaction, now below 20%, had reached its lowest level since 1992.

The financial crisis which began in October of 2008, a month before the election of President Obama, sent public optimism diving to the record low level of eight-percent. Obama’s inauguration and increased satisfaction with the Democratic Party surged the number upwards, peaking at 36% as of August of this year. However the eroding of public confidence reflected in the President’s fallen approval numbers and particular dissatisfaction with the issue of health care reform has settled the number back to down to 25% as we reach the end of the decade.

The most important problems facing the country as perceived by the American public have shifted over time. Lately it has been the economy that is far and away the top concern. Gallup claimed that twenty-nine different problems/issues were mentioned by at least one-percent of the public in their final poll on the topic in December of 2009. The top-four issues overall dealt with the aforementioned economy, healthcare, terrorism and wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Terrorism and war were not part of the public consciousness during the first relatively peaceful year of the decade. Not surprisingly concern over terrorism peaked in October of 2001 at 46% when it was briefly the top overall issue with Americans. By the beginning of 2003 the number of those reported it to be their top concern dropped to under 20%. There were some peaks and valleys in concern over terrorism generally triggered by periodic attacks on countries abroad reported by the news. That said by late-2006 concern over the issue had dropped back to the single-digits and as we exit the 2000s the level of anxiety had fallen to the near non-existent levels it began the decade with.

The issue of war like terrorism was not a high priority topic until the September 11th attacks. By the end of 2001 concern over the perception of imminent war in the Middle East grew to around 18%. That figure dipped somewhat over the next several months but upon the invasion of Iraq in March of 2003 concern over the issue of the war shot up to 35%. President Bush’s now rather infamous “Mission Accomplished” speech sent concern plummeting back down below ten-percent.

As American casualties mounted and the war became more costly concern then rebounded to the mid-20 percentiles where it stayed on average until peaking at 40% near the beginning of 2007. Gallup figures then suggest a steady decline in concern over war from that point through the latter stages of 2009 where it has recently received a bump (15%) upon the announcement of President Obama’s troop surge and withdraw proposals for Afghanistan.

Trends in the economy and healthcare can be linked as an issue and tend to follow the same patterns in both awareness and concern for Americans. As the most important single issue the economy has never fallen below 15% but its meteoric climb from being a distant secondary issue in mid-2007 to its current status now is rather stunning. Prior to 2008 economic concerns peaked around 9/11/01 (40%), again in early-2003 at over 50% and climbed back up over 40% a few months into 2006.

The financial meltdown on Wall Street in 2008 shot concerns through the roof. By February of this year the economic anxiety had reached a record high level of 86%. The number has actually dropped considerably since that time, down to as low as 50% two months ago before rebounding to the upper-50s as the decade comes to a close. Still it has far and away been the top concern for a majority of Americans since the early stages of 2008.

Mirroring the overall economy is the issue of healthcare that has experienced similar peaks and valleys over the decade albeit at a far lower percentile of concern. Until 2009 healthcare concern reached a peak of around 13% in the latter stages of 2004 as it became a campaign issue during that year’s Presidential election. Since the first few months of 2009 awareness and concern have skyrocketed. The peak was reached in late-August and early-September at 26% before dipping modestly to the lower-20 percentiles by decades end, comfortably situated as the second biggest concern amongst Americans.

Never before have we witnessed such climactic peaks and shallows depths in Presidential approving ratings then seen in this current decade of the 2000s. The 2000s will surely be remember mostly as the decade of President Bush who was controversially elected in late-2000 and served in office until January of 2009. Book ending the Bush Presidency however were final months and beginning stages of two Democrats; Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. Although widely acknowledged as a “lame duck” President Clinton enjoyed strong approval ratings through his final year in office. Clinton was over a 60% approval for the year of 2000 and finished with an impressive 66% rating as he left office in January of 2001 according to Gallup.

In spite of the issues surrounding the election of 2000 President George W. Bush spent much of his first year in office with approval ratings ranging in the mid-50s to low-60 percentiles. Bush cratered to 51% in early-September of 2001 but the outpouring of support following the September 11th tragedy sent his approval rating up to the stratosphere. In just two weeks Bush’s approval shot up some 39-points to a Presidential record of 90% as measured by Gallup.

There was little chance Bush was going to maintain such high ratings for longer than a short while. Still the President managed to shake off his sinking numbers over the next fifteen months reaching back up to 70% after the initially successful invasion of Iraq in March 2003. Since then a steady and at times dramatic decline in ratings hampered Bush and fellow Republicans in office. By the election of 2004 Bush was narrowly elected over Democratic Senator John Kerry by way of lifting his approval ratings back above 50% after he had dropped below that threshold for a time.

The reelection of 2004 was the last hurrah for the Bush Presidency. At the point of the Hurricane Katrina disaster in September of 2005 Bush’s approval had fallen below 40% for the first time. He rebounded slightly two other times; near the beginning of 2006 and again in the summer of that year after Gallup measurements briefly pegged his number at 32%. Bush and Republicans would struggle through the rest of 2006 and the following two years however. Although the President would leave office on a modest upswing (34%) his approval ratings would frequently drop into the twenty-percentiles during much of his final year in office.

Newly elected President Obama entered the White House with much support from the American public. Gallup measured the new President’s approval rating after his inauguration in January in the mid-60s and some polls had him even higher that that. Obama peaked at around 65% in March of this year before suffering a steady drop of approval in the ensuing months. Currently embattled by his policies regarding the economy, healthcare and the war in Afghanistan Obama has made periodic trips to the upper-40 percentiles currently resting around 50% according to Gallup for the month of December.

In much the same way Presidential approval ratings have shown historically high volatility in this decade the public’s opinion of Congress has also shifted dramatically. Gallup points out that the decade of the 2000s has seen both new highs and lows for Congressional approval ratings. Starting the decade under the full control of the Republican Party Congress ranged from a low of 40% to highs in the upper-50s. After 9/11 Congress followed President Bush’s popularity to record high levels situated at 84% two weeks after the terrorist attack. Also like Bush however the honeymoon would not last long.

Congress averaged an approval rating in the mid-50s for much of 2002 and kept that average around 50% for the bulk of 2003. The shrinking support from Americans became more evident by 2004 when the ratings for the House and Senate were essentially flat for the better part of a year, nestling in the low-40 percentiles. By the end of 2005 the ratings for Congress has plummeted to around 30% and their approval under control of the GOP would follow Bush’s descending support for all of 2006. On two separate occasions Congress approval was measured at just 20% and on the eve of the Democrats takeover in November of that year the figure was at 26%.

Some renewed optimism followed the Democrats as many new elected officials entered office in early-2007. Congress peaked in February at 37% but shot right back down in the months that followed. The all-time low rating was now achieved by a Democrat controlled Congress measuring a paltry 14% in August of 2008. Once again an election would help create a surge in approval with Congress momentarily reaching the cusp of 40% shortly after President Obama took office in early-2009. Again ratings have cratered although not down to the historically horrific numbers from the summer of 2008. Congress exits the decade with exactly one in four (25%) Americans currently approving of their job performance.

“The Decade from Hell” as Time Magazine called it. Certainly a decade of change, volatility and many twists and turns. It will be interesting to see how Americans reflect on the 2000s in the coming years. Count on Gallup and other pollsters being there to track the evidence along the way.

PHOT CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / ALEX BRANDON