Poll: Corbett leads in Pennsylvania but race for Governor remains wide open

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Following some recent polling on the state of affairs in the Pennsylvania Senate Rasmussen Reports has just released their latest findings on the 2010 race for Governor.

For the moment it is Republican Attorney General Tom Corbett leading a hypothetical field of Democrats but as Rasmussen is quick to point out the race appears wide open at this point. Corbett leads Auditor General Jack Wagner 43-30%, Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato 44-28%, congressman Joe Hoeffel by a 48-26% margin and Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty by some 23-points (46-23%). While Corbett has a sizeable advantage on all four possible Democratic candidates over eight-percent of Pennsylvanians support some other candidate and one in five are currently undecided.

Governor Ed Rendell was reelected in 2006 by nearly twenty-percentage points over Republican Lynn Swann. Currently however the Governor has dropped to an approval rating of just 39% with 59% disapproving of his job performance. Just 20% of Pennsylvanians would cast their vote for a third Rendell term is state law permitted it against 45% who would not.

Corbett meanwhile has a decided advantage over his potential Democratic challengers in the area of name recognition, just as he receives a boost in his favorability by those who do have a strong opinion of him. Rasmussen is well know for a placing a polling emphasis on the number of those who have a “strong” opinion of a candidate, person or issue over those with general favorable or unfavorable opinions. Just 23% of Pennsylvanians remain unsure about Corbett with the Attorney General receiving the support of 22% of voters who hold a very favorable opinion of him against just 4% offering a very unfavorable description.

Only Jack Wagner even approaches those numbers on the Democratic side. Wagner does not generate a soft or strong opinion from 34% of Pennsylvanian voters and a 10-8% margin between those holding very favorable and unfavorable opinions of him respectively. The other three Democratic notables are essentially unknown by 40% of the state and all struggle with more viewing them very unfavorably than the other way around at this point in time.

Historically speaking the state of Pennsylvania has a strong Republican tradition that has given way to a competitive battle for the Governor’s mansion in recent decades. From 1861 to 1955 a total of twenty different Republicans served as Governor of the Keystone State against just three Democrats. George M. Leader who began his term in 1955 led something of a Democratic revival in Pennsylvania that has included five of the past ten state Governors, three of whom (Milton Shapp, Bob Casey, Ed Rendell) who have served two-terms.

Much of the political focus on Pennsylvania recently has been geared toward the impending Senate battle for 2010. In that race there are three well established candidates and at least two with strong name recognition. While the entire nation will take part in individual House elections, two-thirds will hold gubernatorial races and about a third of the Senate will be up for election the races in Pennsylvania will be a focal point for American politics in 2010. It’s politically moderate status in recent decades and important high-profile races in the Senate, House, and for Governor will heighten the Keystone State’s visibility as we head into the next decade.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / MATT ROURKE