Monday, December 7, 2009

Poll: Public mixed on global warming, sees divided scientific community on issue

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The issue of global warming is a hot-topic in the news this week with the climate change summit in Copenhagen underway.

The environment is in the spotlight and attitudes in the United States and abroad continue to shift on the issue. New scientific data arrives constantly supporting the theories of a warming planet and in many cases by the consequence of human activity. According to research from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies 2009 is shaping up to be the fifth warmest of 130-years on record.

Still the drumbeat of opposition grows louder fueled recently by a hacked email from the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit director Phil Jones. Many will suggests that Jones was deliberately “cooking” his data to make greater hay out of support of man made global warming. Others will only go so far as to say he was simply acting unethically to the extent of dressing up his presentation of otherwise solid factual evidence. Either way it has many Americans thinking, while the polls are tracking those thoughts.

A massive study of over 206,000 citizens from 128-different countries has just been released by Gallup. More than half of the world’s greenhouse emissions come from five nations; Japan, China, Russia, India and the United States. The level of understanding and acceptance from each country varies however. In Japan (99%) and the U.S. (97%) nearly every resident is aware of climate change. From Russia to China to India however that figure drops considerably to percentages of 85, 62, and 35 respectively. Furthermore the percentage of those in each nation that are both aware and consider greenhouse omissions a serious threat also ranges. Eight of ten in Japan acknowledge the danger, 63% in the United States, 39% in Russia, 29% in India and just 21% in China. Overall more than a third of Americans (35%) do not consider climate change to be a serious threat according to the Gallup survey.

Rasmussen Reports has also been following the debate closely in recent weeks. According to their research Americans are somewhat hesitant to accept the evidence behind global warming just as they see divisions within the scientific community. 52% of those polled believed that disagreements amongst scientists persist against just 25% who think they do not. 59% of the American public also feels it is at least somewhat likely that a number of scientists have falsified research data to prove their own theories and beliefs. In total 46% of the public agrees that global warming is not only real but poses a major threat to human society. 36% however do not believe the threat exits with a considerably large percentage (18%) that remain undecided on the issue.

In the midst of a struggling economy understandably most Americans have focused their attention away from the global warming debate. By a margin of 71-15% many more think the government should spend most of its time focusing on the economy rather than stopping global warming to help save the environment. These percentages are underscored by the 44% of the public that senses a conflict between economic growth and environmental protection and nearly half (50%) who believe that long term planetary trends are the more likely cause of global warming than human activity. In late-August Rasmussen also found that twice as many Americans think the climate change bill in Congress would hurt the national economy rather than help it.

The United Nations has been a top advocate of anti-global warming initiatives, but the American public does not always look kindly upon that organization. 29% in the U.S. see the U.N. as an ally but 15% do not with nearly half (47%) of the opinion that they fall somewhere in the middle. As for Al Gore, Rasmussen finds that just 31% of public considers him an expert on the global warming issue. The number includes less than half of Democrats (48%), just 12% of Republicans and little more than a quarter of those unaffiliated (27%) despite the high recognition he has received.

Other polls show a greater acceptance toward the issue of climate change from the American public. Although down eight-points from a similar survey in 2008 an ABC News/Washington Post poll shows 72% of the public believing that world temperatures “probably” have been going up over the past hundred years. Although the number of those showing great concern has dropped recently 56% of those polled by NBC News/Wall Street Journal believe at least some action should be taken to combat the affect of global warming. An additional 29% feel that more research on the subject is required with just 13% thinking either unwarranted.

65% of adults from a two-month old Pew Research survey believe global warming to be a serious issue but a declining number feel that human activity is the chief culprit behind the problem. Down nine-points from April of last year 36% think human activity is the reason, 16% see natural patterns as why and another 16% don’t know or are uncertain of the cause.

The proposed “cap and trade” system where the government would issue permits limiting the amount of greenhouse gases a company can release sees mixed levels of support and opposition between polls. ABC indicates steady support throughout 2009 with 53% currently favoring the program against 42% who are opposed. In a related question from a late-October survey conducted by NBC Americans approved of the idea of such a program by a margin of just 48-43%. Half in a Pew Research poll also favor setting limits on companies against 39% who are opposed. When a CNN/Opinion Research poll asked about “cap and trade” however some 60% of responders favored its implementation against just 37% who were opposed.

As the debate rages on it will be interesting to see what if any progress the Copenhagen summit has on the view of Americans and the world on the global warming issue. So long as economic turmoil grips the nation and is the main source of headlines and concern however climate change may continue to take a back seat.

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