Poll: Castle slightly ahead of Biden in possible Delaware Senate showdown

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As the buildup to the impending 2010 elections continues we take a trip this time to the Pennsylvania’s neighbor to the south, the First State of Delaware.

What Delaware lacks in size and brand name appeal nationally it could more than make up for in political drama. Two high profile candidates stand out in the early stages of the state's Senatorial race next fall. Attorney General Beau Biden, son of sitting Vice President Joe Biden pitted against Republican Mike Castle, a former two-term Governor and the longest serving representative in Delaware history. Both would-be candidates could challenge for the vacant seat left by VP Biden who served 36-years as a Senator from the First State.

For the moment it is Castle leading the younger Biden 47-42% in the hypothetical race according to a recent survey conducted by Rasmussen Reports. The big question at this point however is if in fact the seventy year old Mike Castle would choose to run for a Senate position next fall. Early polling suggests that Castle dominates with men (25-point lead) and struggles somewhat with women (13-point deficit) against Biden. If Castle elects not to run however the dynamic of the race changes considerably.

Christine O’Donnell, the one declared GOP candidate finds herself in a nine-point hole (49-40%) against Biden according to Rasmussen, whereas a number of Delaware voters (8%) remain uncertain about either candidate. O’Donnell will likely need to play better with her own gender to make a race of it as she currently trails Biden by 27-points amongst women.

Regardless of the opposition Biden will surely pull out all stops to secure the Senate seat, perhaps piggybacking off of the national success of his father who helped President Obama to a record landslide victory in Delaware last November. As pointed out in an Associated Press article Beau Biden never the less faces challenges stemming from agency missteps that led to the dropped charges against a man accused of killing a local college student. He also finds a PR hurdle to overcome in the drawn out and unsuccessful legal battle against NCAA and professional sports leagues over Delaware’s new betting lottery.

Last November Joe Biden crushed Christine O’Donnell securing 65% of the popular as he was campaigning for Vice President. Ted Kauffman a longtime Biden aide was appointed by then Governor Ruth Ann Minner for an interum stay of two-years as Senator. Kauffman has publicly stated that he will not seek the office after his term ends in January of 2011. This means a special election is to be held in November of next year to decide who will take over for the last four-years of Biden’s term.

Beau Biden who just finished a year-long deployment to Iraq for National Guard duty technically has not declared his candidacy for the Senate seat. Wide speculation and assumption surround the Attorney General however who currently holds a 26-12% favorable to unfavorable rating amongst Delaware voters. Castle’s positive margin is a slightly more modest 25-15% with O’Donnell, a marketing consultant and political commentator, lingering behind both at a 14-15% split.

Some other polling conducted by Rasmussen shows that Delaware residents are almost evenly split on the issue of health care reform. 48% are in favor of the Democratic plan with 49% opposed. Just 8% rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent with 44% considering it poor. Another 31% think the national economy is improving while 42% see it as getting worse. These negative feelings are not reflected in President Obama’s individual approving rating or Jack Markell’s job performance as Governor however. Obama holds a 54% approval rating with 45% disapproving of his performance as President. Markell meanwhile is viewed positively overall by those in the First State to the tune of a 59-37% approval to disapproval split.