READ FULL STORY HEREIn conjunction with recent survey results from Quinnipiac we again take a look at some of latest data coming in from Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
As reported last week Pennsylvanians show continued displeasure with both Governor Rendell and the state legislature over the recently resolved budget impasse. In New Jersey some of the more notable findings indicated a narrowing race for Governor between incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine and GOP upstart Chris Christie. For this most recent round of survey data we take a look at Pennsylvania’s 2010 Senate race, President Obama’s popularity in the Keystone State and the impact of swine flu hysteria in New Jersey. Below is a list of ten highlights from the two recent Quinnipiac polls.
1) Specter and Toomey in virtual dead-heat for second straight poll
Just as it was in late-July the race for Pennsylvania Senate a little over a year from remains essentially even. In July presumptive Democratic nominee Arlen Specter was leading Republican Pat Toomey 45-44%. Now in early-October those numbers have flip flopped to 43-42% in favor of Toomey with an increasing number (13%) of those undecided. Both candidates are pulling in only modest numbers from the opposition party’s voters as Specter earns just 12% of Republicans and Toomey pulling in 14% of Democratic support. Few Republican voters have decided to stick with Specter in spite of his former standing as a long time GOP Senator. Many Democrats meanwhile remain leery of their new member as well.
2) Possible race between Toomey and Sestak also remains a tight affair
Pat Toomey is bound to have a heated race on his hands regardless of his Democratic opposition next fall. If Congressman Joe Sestak can somehow upset Arlen Specter in the primary battle early-Quinnipiac polling suggests he will be thrust into a tight race with Toomey. The Republican nominee currently holds a narrow 38-35% lead over Sestak, down a single point from polling in late-July. Sestak meanwhile is making up ground on Specter amongst Democrats. Last month the longtime Senator Specter still had a large 55-23% lead on second-term Congressman Sestak. This month however Sestak has caught up some now trailing by a 44-25% margin with a large number of registered Pennsylvania Democrats (28%) still undecided.
3) Specter battling increasingly unfavorable opinion; Sestak and Toomey still unknown
Senator Arlen Specter’s favorability ratings in Pennsylvania continue to drop since his party switch. Currently his 42-46% favorable to unfavorable split drops the Senator into the negatives for the first time in recent memory. In November of last year Specter was pulling in a 56% favorable and as of late-July he struggled just above the divide with a 45-44% margin. 62% of the Philadelphia area still likes Senator Specter but central-Pennsylvania, a former stronghold for the former Republican, is down to just a 33% favorable. Pat Toomey meanwhile still goes unrecognized by a majority of Pa. voters. He holds a positive 34-12% favorable but 53% still haven’t heard enough about the candidate. Ditto that Joe Sestak who is viewed positively by those that know him, but seven in ten have not heard enough to have an opinion either way.
4) Senator Bob Casey continues to earn positive marks from Pennsylvanians
Elected during the Democrats’ blowout win in the 2006 midterms Bob Casey continues to hold on to a mostly favorable electorate of his job performance. Since late-March his approval has stayed between 52-56% currently settling in at 53%. One negative however is the Senator’s disapproval that is at a new high of 29%, up four-points from late-July and eight-points from May. Still Casey has a positive to negative approval split of 24-points and has to feel comfortable in what have been tough times recently for incumbent Democrats. Casey’s term will not end until 2013 meaning he has over three years before his next race will coincide with the 2012 Presidential election.
5) President Obama’s approval rating falls to a new low in Pennsylvania
Most national polls have been tracking President Obama’s approval rating at a fairly steady low-50s percentile over the past two or three months. In Pennsylvania however, one of America’s key battleground states and where he won by better than ten-percentage points last fall, Obama now drops below 50% for the first time. Currently a plurality of voters (49-42%) approve of the way the President is handling his job, a seven-point drop from late-July and down 14% from Quinnipiac’s first tracking poll in mid-February. The President pulls in an approval of 81% with Democrats and 50% of independents, but just 17% of Republicans approve. He is viewed positively by 68% of those residing in the Philadelphia area but struggles in the central and western portions of the state.
6) More Pennsylvanians disapprove than approve of Obama’s handling of the economy
In addition to his overall drop in approval numbers one of the major decreases since early this year comes in the form of the national economy. Currently just 46% of Pennsylvanians approve of how the President is handling the economy against 47% who disapprove. That is the first time we have seen more voters in the Keystone State disapprove than approve of the President on the issue. Obama’s high point came in February when 59% of Pennsylvania voters approved of his handling of the economy but that dropped to 50% in late-July and now just 46% in October. Just 18% of Republicans and 45% of independents approve of his economic leadership.
7) President Obama struggles on the issue of health care
With the President falling below 50% in his overall approval rating in the state of Pennsylvania an unsurprising number of those critical are showing up in the areas of economy and health care. Obama and Democrats in Congress continue to struggle on the issue of health care both nationally and in Pennsylvania. Currently just 39% of Pennsylvanians approve against 53% who disapprove of the President’s overall handling of health care. In terms of his reform plan there is a 41-47% support to opposition split in the Keystone State which is fairly consistent with national figures. Support for the plan ranges widely by region. 69% in the Philly-area are on board with the President’s reform plans against just 28% of those living in the northwest region of the state.
8) Few in New Jersey “very” worried about swine flu. More elders than young concerned.
Just ten-percent of those residing in the Garden State claim to be “very worried” about the chances that they or someone in their family will get swine flu. Overall 41% are at least somewhat worried however against 58% of voters who either are not very worried or not too worried at all. Democrats and Republicans are equally fearful of the flu (42%) with men more uncomfortable than women (46-36%) at the potential of getting sick. Those between the ages of 35-54 and elders over 55 are nearly identical in their fears of the swine flu (44-45%), whereas younger adults aged 18-34 show only passing concern (30%) overall. 17% of lower income families meanwhile are understandably quite worried about the possibility of contracting the swine flu.
9) Less than half will get swine flu vaccination, but most will do so for their children
According to the Quinnipiac poll slightly more folks in New Jersey do not plan to get a swine flu vaccination than those who have or will. 46% suggest they will get a shot compared to 48% who will not bother to do so. Adults are more concerned about their children than themselves regarding this issue. 55% plan on getting their kids the vaccination against 33% who do not plan to do so. Interestingly independents are considerably less likely (41%) than Democrats (48%) or Republicans (47%) to get the flu shot. When it comes to their children those numbers are a bit more consistent with 52% of independents, and 56% of both Democrats and Republicans on board with getting their kids vaccinated.
10) Most think swine flu hysteria overblown but agree government reaction is justified
Many in New Jersey are skeptical that the news media is giving a fair assessment on their reporting on the swine flu. 36% believe the overall media reaction to be justified but 59% think it to be overblown. More young voters believe swine flu coverage to be more hype than fact (65%) than do the elderly (55%), with more Democrats (41%) than Republicans (31%) thinking the coverage to be justified. On the flip side most agree with the government’s reaction to swine flu. 58% suggest that concern by the government at its current level to be justified with only 36% considering it overblown. This includes 41% of Republicans who feel it to be overblown, 37% of independents and 30% of Democrats agreeing with that assessment.
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