Poll: Specter and Sestak race 'too close to call' as we head to Election Day

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It’s down to the wire in the Keystone State and polls show a virtual dead heat.

Tomorrow, May 18th, Democrats across Pennsylvania will cast their vote for which candidate will represent their party against Republican Pat Toomey in November. Long time Senator and recently minted Democrat Arlen Specter was seen as the front runner in the race against second term Congressman Joe Sestak. In recent weeks however as a flurry of campaign ads and issues raised from both sides have filled the airwaves the battle for Specter’s long held Senate seat has heated up.

Suggesting the race is still at a deadlock might actually be encouraging words to Arlen Specter supporters. After all some reputable new polling in recent days shows the Sestak insurgency has moved in front.


Last week a survey from Rasmussen Reports showed, that for the first time, Sestak had moved ahead of Specter by a margin of 47-42% in their primary showdown. A new survey conducted by Franklin & Marshall in affiliation with the Philadelphia Daily News meanwhile places Sestak as the narrow front runner. With a lead of 38-36% in that poll over a quarter of voters have yet to voice their preference for either candidate. Released this morning a new poll from Quinnipiac meanwhile shows a virtually even race. The poll has Sestak inching in front by a margin of 42-41%. Still a relatively high number of Democratic voters (16%) remain undecided of either candidate whereas a quarter of those supporting either suggest they could change their decision prior to heading into the voting booth on Tuesday.

"The Sestak-Specter race is a dead heat and could go either way. Sen. Arlen
Specter has the party organization behind him, which should help with turnout.
But Congressman Joe Sestak could benefit from the relatively large group of
undecided voters. Generally, incumbents don't do all that well with undecideds,
who are more likely to vote for the challenger or not vote." -- Peter A. Brown,
assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute

With a large number of Pennsylvanians from all parties believing Arlen Specter has worn out his welcome as a representative in the U.S. Senate and the general anti-incumbent tone of this election cycle it’s easy to see where the veteran senator’s difficulties lie. But Democrats in the Keystone State also seem to be keeping watchful out for which candidate matches up better with Pat Toomey, the presumptive Republican nominee, in the fall.

Released last Monday a Rasmussen poll finds Joe Sestak as considerably more likely to keep the senate seat from falling into Republican hands. In their still hypothetical match up Sestak trails Toomey by just two-points, 42-40%. Arlen Specter meanwhile is currently outdistanced by the Republican candidate to the tune of a twelve-point, 50-38% margin. The Franklin & Marshall survey found a more level playing field with Toomey ahead of Sestak 29-28% and leading Specter by a statistically insignificant 35-33% margin.

That said this election appears to be referendum on the current political environment nationally and on Senator Specter’s declining popularity at home. Just 32% of Pennsylvanians rated Specter’s job performance as “good” or “excellent” against 33% who labeled it only “fair” and an additional 29% who rate it “poor”. With such large blocks of voters undecided only a day out from going to the polls the Specter campaign still appears to have life. It is however hard to ignore the momentum that has been pointing in the direction of his challenger for several weeks now. Don’t count Arlen out but expect a Sestak victory and tight race between he and Toomey that will stretch across the next five and half months.