Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Poll: Republican candidates lead Democratic rivals in two key races in Pennsylvania

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As a number of states prepare to vote in what could be crucial primaries today two news surveys from Rasmussen Reports show Republicans fairing quite well in Pennsylvania.

In the race for Senate Republican Pat Toomey is now shown as leading recently nominated Democrat Joe Sestak 45-38%. This is a turnaround from polling two-weeks ago that showed Sestak carrying a modest four-point lead bolstered by his primary defeat of longtime Senator Arlen Specter. The post-victory bounce has appeared to dissipate rather quickly for the sitting congressman however and Toomey, who led both would-be Democrats for most of the year, is back out in front.

The good news for Sestak comes in the 19% of undecided Democratic voters. Only 7% of Republicans can’t choose between Toomey, Sestak or a third-party candidate at this juncture. Overall 12% of Pennsylvanians are uncertain of any candidate perhaps affording Sestak the opportunity to both tie up some loose ends within his own party and court those crucial undecideds.

Health care remains a divisive issue in Pennsylvania as it does nationally. 56% of Keystone State voters support the repeal of health care reform legislation against 38% who oppose such a measure. Eight out of ten (80%) of those electing to keep the status quo not surprisingly favor Sestak and a virtually identical percentage (81%) of those pushing for its retraction side with Toomey. Overall Sestak splits the opinion of voters with strong feelings about him. 16% of Pennsylvania voters hold a very favorable view of the congressman against 16% who view him very unfavorably. Pat Toomey scores a bit better to the tune of a 21-13% very favorable to very unfavorable margin.

In the race for Governor Republican State Attorney General Tom Corbett leads Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato by sixteen-points. The 49-33% lead for Corbett also includes 13% of Pennsylvania voters who aren’t sure of a candidate preference and 5% who prefer someone else besides the two front runners. The dynamics of this race remain relatively unchanged from last month when Rasmussen polling showed Corbett with a thirteen-point lead and drawing 49% support overall.

Corbett’s reputation as a popular politician in the Keystone State is also confirmed by the number of those holding strong opinions of him. 27% of voters view him very favorably against just 11% who see him very unfavorably. Onorato meanwhile is divided by a far more modest margin of 14-10%.

Both men look to succeed sitting two-term Governor and former Philadelphia Mayor Ed Rendell who has been struggling with subpar approval ratings for over a year. Currently Rendell is approved of by 44% of Pennsylvanians. President Obama meanwhile scores a 48% approval rating in the state, a percentage more or less in line with his current standing nationally.


PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Keith Srakocic

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