Poll: Football fans down on the BCS, rank Eagles 7th most popular NFL team

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College football fans are down on the BCS and the Eagles are the seventh most popular team in the NFL.

According to a new poll from Quinnipiac University 63% of adults who identify as being a fan of NCAA football would like the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) replaced with a playoff format in vein of the popular “March Madness” college basketball or other systems used to determine a champion in pro sports. However nearly as many hold a favorable view of the current BCS format (43%) as those who see it unfavorably (45%).

Americans are also split on the role of government intervention into the college league. 45% think it to be a good idea for Congress to force the NCAA to declare a national champion on the field by way of a playoff format but 48% disagree. Overall 18% of adults according to the Quinnipiac poll of 1,849 surveyed say they are “very” interested in college football. An additional 28% suggest they are at least somewhat interested with more than half (54%) not interested at all.

Broken down by political party there are close similarities between those NCAA football fans when offering their opinion on the current state of the BCS and whether it ought to be replaced. The number of Republicans who are in favor of a new format to decide national champions (63%) is identical to the overall number. Democrats and independents are in favor of a systematic change by 65%. Similarly the 43% of adults overall who hold a favorable view of the BCS are broken down by 43% of Democrats and 39% of independents and Republicans. (That the poll is able to generate a total of 43% from three components equaling just 43, 39 and 39% is likely a reflection of the +/- 3.2% margin of error.)

There is a difference in the number of adults considering themselves to be college football fans by political affiliation however. 55% of Republicans are at least “somewhat” interested in the sport against 49% of Democrats and just 47% of independents who claim to be fans. Older adults 55-years and up tend to be slightly more interested than young adults under-35. Men on average (55%) are also more interested in NCAA football than women (38%).

The more partisan issue is not surprisingly reflected by the number of those for or against government intervention. Considerably more Democrats (54%) than Republicans (38%) would like to see Congress essentially force the NCAA to adopt a playoff format for football. Interestingly independents are less likely (35%) than either party to believe Congress playing a role in the issue to be a good idea. President Obama is on the record as stating he favors a playoff system. Most observers believe it possible for at least a four team tournament take place. Pro football uses a twelve team format to decide its Super Bowl winner each season with six teams from each conference reaching the postseason.

Switching to the topic of pro football for a moment a Harris Interactive poll from October rated the Dallas Cowboys as the most popular team in the NFL and the Philadelphia Eagles seventh. Those two teams will meet Sunday in Dallas to decide the winner of NFC East and perhaps who will be awarded a first round bye week in the playoffs. Slightly more than half (51%) of adults say they regularly follow professional football making it the nation’s most popular sporting league. Baby boomers aged 45-63 are most likely to follow the NFL (55%) and men do so more than women by a margin of 64-39%. African American adults (63%) top both white’s (50%) and Hispanics (51%) in the number of pro football fans with Republicans (59%) seemingly a bit more interested than Democrats (50%) or independents (51%).

Results from the Harris poll surveying the popularity of teams dates back to 1998. Over that period the Eagles were most popular in 2004 and 2005 in the midst of their most recent Super Bowl run ranking them fifth. Their lowest ranking of 21st was in 1999, the first season of Coach Andy Reid and quarterback Donovan McNabb as the Eagles were regrouping from a franchise worst thirteen loses the previous season. The Cowboys meanwhile rank as the league’s most popular team for a third-straight year and since 1998 they have never dropped below fourth in the survey.

Rounding out the top-ten are the Pittsburgh Steelers, Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers, Eagles at seven, New York Giants, Tennessee Titans and Minnesota Vikings. The Jacksonville Jaguars who have struggled with their attendance this season despite being in the playoff hunt are ranked as least popular team for the fourth time in five years. The biggest jump in positioning was a whopping fourteen spots by the Atlanta Falcons from 27th to 13th. The biggest fall was sustained by the Brett Favre-less New York Jets dropping eleven positions from a ninth place tie to number twenty. The Eagles meanwhile are up one spot from the last two years and currently at number seven rank as the most popular NFL team to have never won a Super Bowl.

Lastly Harris asked the question in October who fans thought was the team most likely to win this season’s Super Bowl. At the time 19% thought the Steelers were poised for a repeat, 17% considered the Patriots most likely with the Indianapolis Colts at seven-percent and a distant third place. The Dallas Cowboys were next at six-percent and rounding out the top-five were the Eagles, Giants and Bears all at five-percent. The NFL landscape has changed considerably since then however. The Steelers at 8-7 are battling for their playoff lives and the Patriots have had an inconsistent 10-5 season that none the less has won them a division title. The Colts at 14-1 meanwhile have the best record in football, the Cowboys and Eagles as previously mentioned will battle for their division crown this weekend and the Giants and Bears are both officially eliminated from the playoff picture.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / MICHAEL PEREZ

Poll: Winners and losers for 2009

With only four days until the New Year Americans are taking a look back at the year that was in 2009. Gallup released the results of a survey this morning asking responders to pick their winners and losers of the past twelve months.

Although it was a difficult first year, by most accounts, for the President a majority of Americans consider 2009 a win for both Obama and any number of high profile individuals associated with him. 58% consider the President to be a political “winner” this year. His wife, First Lady Michelle scores even higher with 73% of that opinion. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is considered a winner by seven of ten Americans and newly confirmed Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor tops out at 57% with just 24% believing her to be a “loser” in 2009.

The First Lady has received positive approval over the entire year and Hillary Clinton seems to have bounced back from a hard fought losing campaign for President in 2008 to successfully fill the role of Obama’s Secretary of the State in 2009. Sonia Sotomayor has far and away the highest number of Americans (19%) unsure of her standing as a winner or loser for the year. Her nomination and confirmation as Supreme Court Justice while surely viewed as a high honor by most is possibly undercut by the negative reaction of many to her controversial rulings in the New Haven firefighters case.

As for President Obama the 58% who feel he pulled out an overall victory for 2009 closely mirrors his average approval rating for the year. Obama pushed through his economic stimulus package earlier in the year and currently on the verge of passing health care reform as the decade comes to a close. In the meantime his approval ratings hampered by controversial legislation have declined considerably in recently months and Gallup currently measures the President’s job approval at 51%.
With only four days until the New Year Americans are taking a look back at the year that was in 2009. Gallup released the results of a survey this morning asking responders to pick their winners and losers of the past twelve months.

Although it was a difficult first year, by most accounts, for the President a majority of Americans consider 2009 a win for both Obama and any number of high profile individuals associated with him. 58% consider the President to be a political “winner” this year. His wife, First Lady Michelle scores even higher with 73% of that opinion. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is considered a winner by seven of ten Americans and newly confirmed Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor tops out at 57% with just 24% believing her to be a “loser” in 2009.

The First Lady has received positive approval over the entire year and Hillary Clinton seems to have bounced back from a hard fought losing campaign for President in 2008 to successfully fill the role of Obama’s Secretary of the State in 2009. Sonia Sotomayor has far and away the highest number of Americans (19%) unsure of her standing as a winner or loser for the year. Her nomination and confirmation as Supreme Court Justice while surely viewed as a high honor by most is possibly undercut by the negative reaction of many to her controversial rulings in the New Haven firefighters case.

As for President Obama the 58% who feel he pulled out an overall victory for 2009 closely mirrors his average approval rating for the year. Obama pushed through his economic stimulus package earlier in the year and currently on the verge of passing health care reform as the decade comes to a close. In the meantime his approval ratings hampered by controversial legislation have declined considerably in recently months and Gallup currently measures the President’s job approval at 51%.

The so-called “losers” for 2009 include Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, South Carolina politicians Joe Wilson and Mark Sanford, the Republicans in Congress and the White House party crashers.

Pelosi is viewed as a political loser by half (50%) of Americans and a winner by 38%. The view of Republicans in Congress is nearly identical with 38% thinking them winners against 52% who consider them political losers. Republicans appear to have unsuccessfully attempted to derail a key piece of President Obama’s health care legislation but the 38% who consider them winners in 2009 does prevail over their current job approval ratings according to most polls.

Congressman Joe Wilson who was attacked for his “you lie” comment towards the President at a joint session is viewed as a loser by 61% of the public against just 29% who feel he was a winner in 2009. Fellow South Carolinian and Governor Mark Sanford who is under state ethics examination after admitting to an extramarital affair is a loser in the mind of 63% of the public. Just 12% consider him to be a winner with one in four having no opinion. Similarly the stunt pulled by White House party crashers Tareq and Michaele Salahi has them viewed positively by just 16% of Americans with 70% considering them biggest “losers” for ’09.

There is a considerably large gray area as recorded by Gallup in the public opinion of Sarah Palin, Ben Bernanke, Harry Reid and Glenn Beck. Palin has struggled in the minds of the public through most of 2009, coming off of a defeat in the last November’s Presidential election and her surprising resignation as Alaskan Governor earlier this year. Palin remains popular in many circles however and her recent autobiography was a best seller. Currently Palin is labeled as a winner by 46% of the public and a loser by 49%.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was Time Magazine’s “Person of the Year” for 2009 but seems to have split public opinion. 37% consider the year a win for the chairman against 35% who do not with a high number (28%) not holding an opinion. Those figures are essentially flipped for conservative talk show host Glenn Beck, the source of another Time Magazine cover this year. Beck is a winner in the eyes of 35% of the public, a loser with 37% and like Bernanke does not draw an opinion from 28%. Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid actually fairs similar to House leader Nancy Pelosi although a far higher number of the public (27%) has no opinion of him. With a 31-42% winner to loser margin Reid’s net deficit of eleven-percentage points is equal to that of Pelosi.

As Gallup is quick to point out partisan feelings dominate the perceptions of each individual in this survey. The narrowest divide between parties comes when rating Michelle Obama and even in her case there is a considerable gap. 96% of Democrats think the First Lady was a winner in 2009 against less than half of Republicans (48%) and seven in ten independents who agree. Twice as many Democrats (90%) think Secretary of the State Hillary Clinton is a winner than Republicans (45%) and independents (72%) remain positive towards the former Senator. Sarah Palin has weaker support from her own party with just a little more than three-quarters (76%) thinking her a winner in 2009. Democrats are particularly harsh with just 21% agreeing with that assessment and less than half of independents (45%) also believe 2009 to have been a good year for Sarah.

Not surprisingly the sharpest division between parties comes when rating President Obama, the highest profile of any of the aforementioned. 92% of Democrats see Obama as a winner for 2009 but just 22% of Republicans agree. Perhaps a good omen for the President heading into 2010 is the 56% of independents, just short of his overall average of 58%, consider Obama a winner during his first year in office.

The so-called “losers” for 2009 include Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, South Carolina politicians Joe Wilson and Mark Sanford, the Republicans in Congress and the White House party crashers.

Pelosi is viewed as a political loser by half (50%) of Americans and a winner by 38%. The view of Republicans in Congress is nearly identical with 38% thinking them winners against 52% who consider them political losers. Republicans appear to have unsuccessfully attempted to derail a key piece of President Obama’s health care legislation but the 38% who consider them winners in 2009 does prevail over their current job approval ratings according to most polls.

Congressman Joe Wilson who was attacked for his “you lie” comment towards the President at a joint session is viewed as a loser by 61% of the public against just 29% who feel he was a winner in 2009. Fellow South Carolinian and Governor Mark Sanford who is under state ethics examination after admitting to an extramarital affair is a loser in the mind of 63% of the public. Just 12% consider him to be a winner with one in four having no opinion. Similarly the stunt pulled by White House party crashers Tareq and Michaele Salahi has them viewed positively by just 16% of Americans with 70% considering them biggest “losers” for ’09.

There is a considerably large gray area as recorded by Gallup in the public opinion of Sarah Palin, Ben Bernanke, Harry Reid and Glenn Beck. Palin has struggled in the minds of the public through most of 2009, coming off of a defeat in the last November’s Presidential election and her surprising resignation as Alaskan Governor earlier this year. Palin remains popular in many circles however and her recent autobiography was a best seller. Currently Palin is labeled as a winner by 46% of the public and a loser by 49%.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was Time Magazine’s “Person of the Year” for 2009 but seems to have split public opinion. 37% consider the year a win for the chairman against 35% who do not with a high number (28%) not holding an opinion. Those figures are essentially flipped for conservative talk show host Glenn Beck, the source of another Time Magazine cover this year. Beck is a winner in the eyes of 35% of the public, a loser with 37% and like Bernanke does not draw an opinion from 28%. Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid actually fairs similar to House leader Nancy Pelosi although a far higher number of the public (27%) has no opinion of him. With a 31-42% winner to loser margin Reid’s net deficit of eleven-percentage points is equal to that of Pelosi.

As Gallup is quick to point out partisan feelings dominate the perceptions of each individual in this survey. The narrowest divide between parties comes when rating Michelle Obama and even in her case there is a considerable gap. 96% of Democrats think the First Lady was a winner in 2009 against less than half of Republicans (48%) and seven in ten independents who agree. Twice as many Democrats (90%) think Secretary of the State Hillary Clinton is a winner than Republicans (45%) and independents (72%) remain positive towards the former Senator. Sarah Palin has weaker support from her own party with just a little more than three-quarters (76%) thinking her a winner in 2009. Democrats are particularly harsh with just 21% agreeing with that assessment and less than half of independents (45%) also believe 2009 to have been a good year for Sarah.

Not surprisingly the sharpest division between parties comes when rating President Obama, the highest profile of any of the aforementioned. 92% of Democrats see Obama as a winner for 2009 but just 22% of Republicans agree. Perhaps a good omen for the President heading into 2010 is the 56% of independents, just short of his overall average of 58%, consider Obama a winner during his first year in office.

Poll: Public opinion in the 2000s from start to finish

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With the curtain closing in the 2000s Gallup did some reflecting on the ten years that were using four separate trends to measure public opinion. Overall satisfaction with the direction of America, Presidential and Congressional job approval ratings and the most important issues of the decade were viewed in a chronological timeline.

The trend of U.S. satisfaction has been characterized overall by a steep decline in optimism as the decade of the 2000s wore on. America entered the decade widely content with itself and the direction it was headed. Nearly 70% of the public claimed to be satisfied with the direction of the country as of January 2000 according to Gallup. The first of three major declines in public optimism took place over the latter stages of 2000 and throughout most of 2001. The disputed election of President Bush and an economy suffering through a downward spiral of recession and bursting bubbles after the booming 90s saw satisfaction drop to 48% by August of 2001.

Then came the 9/11 tragedies and a blow that rattled the core of American life also helped trigger a call to unity – at least for a short while. The high point of 70% satisfaction with the direction of the United States was achieved in December of 2001. Public perception was sent downward again however as the positive effects of the 9/11 aftermath seemingly began to dissipate. By mid-2002 satisfaction was being recorded at virtually identical totals as it was a month before the tragedy a year earlier.

It has essentially been dropping ever since. Average approval fell to 46% in 2003, the year the Iraq War began splintering both the public and media. The heated election year of 2004 continued the decline now at 43%. By 2005 it had fallen to 38%. The year of 2006 was characterized by plummeting Bush approval ratings and slipping public confidence shooting the number of those satisfied down even further to 31%. By 2007 it had dipped further to 28% and by the beginning of 2008 public satisfaction, now below 20%, had reached its lowest level since 1992.

The financial crisis which began in October of 2008, a month before the election of President Obama, sent public optimism diving to the record low level of eight-percent. Obama’s inauguration and increased satisfaction with the Democratic Party surged the number upwards, peaking at 36% as of August of this year. However the eroding of public confidence reflected in the President’s fallen approval numbers and particular dissatisfaction with the issue of health care reform has settled the number back to down to 25% as we reach the end of the decade.

The most important problems facing the country as perceived by the American public have shifted over time. Lately it has been the economy that is far and away the top concern. Gallup claimed that twenty-nine different problems/issues were mentioned by at least one-percent of the public in their final poll on the topic in December of 2009. The top-four issues overall dealt with the aforementioned economy, healthcare, terrorism and wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Terrorism and war were not part of the public consciousness during the first relatively peaceful year of the decade. Not surprisingly concern over terrorism peaked in October of 2001 at 46% when it was briefly the top overall issue with Americans. By the beginning of 2003 the number of those reported it to be their top concern dropped to under 20%. There were some peaks and valleys in concern over terrorism generally triggered by periodic attacks on countries abroad reported by the news. That said by late-2006 concern over the issue had dropped back to the single-digits and as we exit the 2000s the level of anxiety had fallen to the near non-existent levels it began the decade with.

The issue of war like terrorism was not a high priority topic until the September 11th attacks. By the end of 2001 concern over the perception of imminent war in the Middle East grew to around 18%. That figure dipped somewhat over the next several months but upon the invasion of Iraq in March of 2003 concern over the issue of the war shot up to 35%. President Bush’s now rather infamous “Mission Accomplished” speech sent concern plummeting back down below ten-percent.

As American casualties mounted and the war became more costly concern then rebounded to the mid-20 percentiles where it stayed on average until peaking at 40% near the beginning of 2007. Gallup figures then suggest a steady decline in concern over war from that point through the latter stages of 2009 where it has recently received a bump (15%) upon the announcement of President Obama’s troop surge and withdraw proposals for Afghanistan.

Trends in the economy and healthcare can be linked as an issue and tend to follow the same patterns in both awareness and concern for Americans. As the most important single issue the economy has never fallen below 15% but its meteoric climb from being a distant secondary issue in mid-2007 to its current status now is rather stunning. Prior to 2008 economic concerns peaked around 9/11/01 (40%), again in early-2003 at over 50% and climbed back up over 40% a few months into 2006.

The financial meltdown on Wall Street in 2008 shot concerns through the roof. By February of this year the economic anxiety had reached a record high level of 86%. The number has actually dropped considerably since that time, down to as low as 50% two months ago before rebounding to the upper-50s as the decade comes to a close. Still it has far and away been the top concern for a majority of Americans since the early stages of 2008.

Mirroring the overall economy is the issue of healthcare that has experienced similar peaks and valleys over the decade albeit at a far lower percentile of concern. Until 2009 healthcare concern reached a peak of around 13% in the latter stages of 2004 as it became a campaign issue during that year’s Presidential election. Since the first few months of 2009 awareness and concern have skyrocketed. The peak was reached in late-August and early-September at 26% before dipping modestly to the lower-20 percentiles by decades end, comfortably situated as the second biggest concern amongst Americans.

Never before have we witnessed such climactic peaks and shallows depths in Presidential approving ratings then seen in this current decade of the 2000s. The 2000s will surely be remember mostly as the decade of President Bush who was controversially elected in late-2000 and served in office until January of 2009. Book ending the Bush Presidency however were final months and beginning stages of two Democrats; Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. Although widely acknowledged as a “lame duck” President Clinton enjoyed strong approval ratings through his final year in office. Clinton was over a 60% approval for the year of 2000 and finished with an impressive 66% rating as he left office in January of 2001 according to Gallup.

In spite of the issues surrounding the election of 2000 President George W. Bush spent much of his first year in office with approval ratings ranging in the mid-50s to low-60 percentiles. Bush cratered to 51% in early-September of 2001 but the outpouring of support following the September 11th tragedy sent his approval rating up to the stratosphere. In just two weeks Bush’s approval shot up some 39-points to a Presidential record of 90% as measured by Gallup.

There was little chance Bush was going to maintain such high ratings for longer than a short while. Still the President managed to shake off his sinking numbers over the next fifteen months reaching back up to 70% after the initially successful invasion of Iraq in March 2003. Since then a steady and at times dramatic decline in ratings hampered Bush and fellow Republicans in office. By the election of 2004 Bush was narrowly elected over Democratic Senator John Kerry by way of lifting his approval ratings back above 50% after he had dropped below that threshold for a time.

The reelection of 2004 was the last hurrah for the Bush Presidency. At the point of the Hurricane Katrina disaster in September of 2005 Bush’s approval had fallen below 40% for the first time. He rebounded slightly two other times; near the beginning of 2006 and again in the summer of that year after Gallup measurements briefly pegged his number at 32%. Bush and Republicans would struggle through the rest of 2006 and the following two years however. Although the President would leave office on a modest upswing (34%) his approval ratings would frequently drop into the twenty-percentiles during much of his final year in office.

Newly elected President Obama entered the White House with much support from the American public. Gallup measured the new President’s approval rating after his inauguration in January in the mid-60s and some polls had him even higher that that. Obama peaked at around 65% in March of this year before suffering a steady drop of approval in the ensuing months. Currently embattled by his policies regarding the economy, healthcare and the war in Afghanistan Obama has made periodic trips to the upper-40 percentiles currently resting around 50% according to Gallup for the month of December.

In much the same way Presidential approval ratings have shown historically high volatility in this decade the public’s opinion of Congress has also shifted dramatically. Gallup points out that the decade of the 2000s has seen both new highs and lows for Congressional approval ratings. Starting the decade under the full control of the Republican Party Congress ranged from a low of 40% to highs in the upper-50s. After 9/11 Congress followed President Bush’s popularity to record high levels situated at 84% two weeks after the terrorist attack. Also like Bush however the honeymoon would not last long.

Congress averaged an approval rating in the mid-50s for much of 2002 and kept that average around 50% for the bulk of 2003. The shrinking support from Americans became more evident by 2004 when the ratings for the House and Senate were essentially flat for the better part of a year, nestling in the low-40 percentiles. By the end of 2005 the ratings for Congress has plummeted to around 30% and their approval under control of the GOP would follow Bush’s descending support for all of 2006. On two separate occasions Congress approval was measured at just 20% and on the eve of the Democrats takeover in November of that year the figure was at 26%.

Some renewed optimism followed the Democrats as many new elected officials entered office in early-2007. Congress peaked in February at 37% but shot right back down in the months that followed. The all-time low rating was now achieved by a Democrat controlled Congress measuring a paltry 14% in August of 2008. Once again an election would help create a surge in approval with Congress momentarily reaching the cusp of 40% shortly after President Obama took office in early-2009. Again ratings have cratered although not down to the historically horrific numbers from the summer of 2008. Congress exits the decade with exactly one in four (25%) Americans currently approving of their job performance.

“The Decade from Hell” as Time Magazine called it. Certainly a decade of change, volatility and many twists and turns. It will be interesting to see how Americans reflect on the 2000s in the coming years. Count on Gallup and other pollsters being there to track the evidence along the way.

PHOT CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / ALEX BRANDON

Health care reform: Polling the reasons for support, opposition and understanding of the issue

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Senate Democrats are finally on the verge of passing health care reform legislation. With every Democratic, including two left-leaning independents, in favor and all forty Republicans in opposition the bill is expected to be signed into law by President Obama prior to Christmas day.

It will be interesting to see what effect the passage of the bill has on the perceptions of the American public as we keep a watchful eye on new polls emerging in the coming days. Most polls at present show considerable majorities against the current version of the bill. Recently released surveys from Rasmussen Reports and CNN/Opinion Research indicate the level of support is mired in the lower 40-percentiles with opposition reaching up to the mid and high-50s.

The Kaiser Family Foundation recently chimed in on the state of health care with a survey of over 1,200 randomly selected samples. Their elaborate charts have been tracking support and opposition on any number of issues since mid-February.

Kaiser reports 54% want health care reform immediately. That is a modest drop from 58% in November. The highest total was reported in February when 62% were in favor of immediate action on the issue. The lowest total meanwhile was measured in August at 53%. Kaiser shows slipping optimism from the public as to whether the country will be better or worse off with health care reform. Although the number who think America will be better off outnumbers those who think the country will be worse off by a margin of 45-31% that number has tumbled dramatically from a 54-27% split just last month. When asked the same question regarding their own family responders were divided by a 35-27% margin.

The Kaiser survey then broke down the 35% who claimed their families would be better off with health care reform into five separate sub-groupings. 31% believe a new bill would help control costs as the main reason for their support. 26% think they will be better able to maintain coverage for their whole family even in the event of one or both parents losing their job. 13% think reform will help their families more by allowing them to see the doctor more often and an identical percentage estimate the positive benefits to their country as a whole as the main reason. Lastly 6% of poll responders like the idea of having better choices and greater benefits.

On the flip side Kaiser looked at the 27% of those who claimed a new health care system would harm their families. The largest of four sub-groupings (47%) claimed the cost too high to afford for themselves, future generations or country at large as the primary reason for their opposition. One-third (33%) of the public claimed the passage of a new bill would negatively affect current health care plans that an individual may already be happy with as well as create additional problems with access and coverage. Similarly one in nine adults (11%) have Medicare related concerns that range from not having the same benefits from before to the fear that coverage to seniors could be cut off. The last 11% believe the government to be a bad manager for administrating health care and have a more general concern of the role of big government control.

Broken down by party over two-thirds (67%) of Democrats believe the country to be better off as a whole if health care reform is passed by the President and Congress. That figure represents a six-point drop from last month and is down from a high of 76% in April and June however. Republicans are more opposed than ever to a new plan with just 21% currently of the opinion that America will be better off down from a high of 38% in February. The steepest decline is with independents however. Falling sharply from percentages in the low to mid-50s in recent months just 38% of independents now believe the country will be better off for new health care reform.

Seniors are vastly more negative toward the possible effects of health care reform than younger adults. 52% of the over-65 crowd believes things would be worse off for themselves with a new bill against just 21% who think they’ll be better. Those younger are more optimistic about the fate of their elders regarding the changes stemming from reform. By a margin of 45-26% those under-65 think seniors will be better off with around one in five total not thinking the changes will make that much difference either way.

The public is fairly evenly divided in grading the role of the media on the issue and most Americans are tuned in to the debate. More (38%) think the news media has done a very good or excellent job in describing the different health care proposals and what they mean them and their families than those who feel they’ve done poorly (28%). 32% however think the media has done only a fair job in their coverage according to the Kaiser Family survey. Over three-quarters (76%) of the public has been following the health care discussions with 34% suggesting they’ve been following very closely. The level of attention and activism is up from the previous major health care issue in America back in February of 1994.

Despite their level of attention to the subject much of the public remains confused as to where their local representatives stand. Only 48% know what the positions their local Senators have on health care reform and just 42% know what side of the fence their district Congressional representative is sitting. Lastly there remains the possibility of considerable confusion and a lack of understand on the issue by the American people. When asked the following question regarding public option and the proposed government-administered plan to compete with private insurers 47% believe this option to be open to anyone with an additional 23% unsure. The correct answer that claimed such an option would be available only to those without employer coverage was scored accurately by just 30% of poll responders.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / EVAN VUCCI

Poll: Specter and Toomey tied in Senate race, Corbett leads for Governor, medical marijuana favored

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Arlen Specter has opened a considerable lead over Joe Sestak in their race for the Democratic nomination for Senate. The long-time Senator Specter is also in a dead-head with Republican Pat Toomey according to two new state polls released by Quinnipiac University.

Up nine-points from a poll in early-October Specter now draws 53% of the Democratic vote for Senate with Joe Sestak falling five-points to just 30%. In a potential general election match up the consistently close race being reported by Quinnipiac is now at a dead-heat. Specter and Toomey both draw 44% support from Pennsylvania voters. Although he struggles against Specter in his hope to wrestle away the Democratic Party nomination Joe Sestak meanwhile remains competitive with Pat Toomey. Currently the Seventh District Congressman trails by a margin of just 40-35%.

Arlen Specter continues to reap the benefits of strong name recognition with Pennsylvania voters. Whereas 70% of voters either have not heard or do not know enough about Joe Sestak and 55% remain in the dark regarding Pat Toomey just nine-percent have no opinion of Senator Specter. Currently Specter enjoys a narrow plurality of job approval (47%) from Pennsylvanians. Only 43% however have a favorable opinion of him against 45% holding an unfavorable view and Quinnipiac finds that just 38% of voters think Specter deserves to be reelected.

In the race for Governor Dan Onorato is the leading candidate in a scattered and utterly wide open field of Democrats seeking the party nomination in 2010. Onorato is the only candidate who pulls in double-digit support (14%), with Joe Hoeffel (8%), Jack Wagner (7%), Chris Doherty (6%) and Tom Knox (5%) lingering behind. 59% of Pennsylvania voters are undecided of their support for any candidate at this time making early polling on the race fairly irrelevant on the Democratic side. Marijuana

As for the Republican Party a 47% plurality have too not made up their mind on whom to support. That said state Attorney General Tom Corbett continues to garner front-runner status over Jim Gerlach by a current margin of 38-12%. Corbett’s lead in a hypothetical general election over the top-three Democratic hopefuls is more notable. He holds a 45-30% over Dan Onorato, 43-33% on Jack Wagner and out distances Joe Hoeffel by a 46-30%. Corbett’s strength is particularly noticeable with independent voters and those living in the more rural areas of Pennsylvania.

In other polling Governor Ed Rendell sits with a 43% job approval rating against 49% who disapprove. Although still in the negatives these figures are an improvement from the 39-53% margin he endured in July and better than the 39-59% split being reported by Rasmussen. The Pennsylvania state legislature meanwhile has bottomed out again with just a quarter (25%) of voters approving of their job performance and 64% disapproving – their worst totals to date. President Obama continues to struggle in the Keystone State meanwhile. For the second consecutive poll just 49% of Pennsylvania voters approve of his job performance. Obama’s negatives are also nearly as high now currently standing at 45%.

As part of Quinnipiac’s recent survey the issue of medical marijuana has also been polled on. 59% of voters approve of a proposal currently in the state legislature that would allow doctors to prescribe marijuana for medical usage – just 35% think it to be a bad idea. Democrats (67%) and independents (61%) are most in support of the idea but even a 49% plurality of Pennsylvania Republicans think the proposal is a good idea.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / CAROLYN KASTER

Poll: Tiger Wood's popularity plummets, most say he should handle marriage issues privately

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It’s been a strange end of the decade for one Tiger Woods.

In the midst of his personal and public fallout due to revelations of his marital infidelity Woods’ personal favorability numbers have plummeted at the same time he has been named the Associated Press “Athlete of the Decade”.

Tiger’s recent honor comes during a tumultuous year and half. In 2008 the world’s greatest golfer won one of the most memorable U.S. Open’s in history only to then miss significant time due to injury. He returned to golf earlier this year to lead the PGA tour in both wins and earnings despite not winning a major. Woods’ recent admissions to cheating on wife with numerous women have thrown his personal life into turmoil just as his exploits on the golf course win him a prestigious honor.

Last Wednesday a Rasmussen Reports survey indicated that just 38% of the public now has a favorable opinion of the golf superstar. Two years ago Woods was at 83%. A recent poll from USA Today/Gallup mirrors those results indicating Tiger’s favorability has plummeted to 33% down from 85% in June of 2005. The record level of personal popularity obtained by Woods was 88% in 2000 according to the latter poll. Only President George W. Bush saw a more climactic dive in popularity for a public figure in the 2000s.

53% of Americans claim to be following the events surrounding Tiger Woods at least somewhat closely according to Rasmussen. There is a small gender gap with 42% of men offering a positive assessment of the golfer against just 35% of women viewing him favorably. Only one-third (33%) of married Americans hold a favorable opinion of Woods at this point. According to the USA Today poll 61% of women now hold an unfavorable view of Tiger with 67% claiming to be disappointed by his actions. A majority of men (53-54%) also share in that sentiment. Advertisers may be wise to take note as well with nearly one in five of those polled (19%) saying they’ll have a less favorable opinion of those companies that use Woods as an endorser.

When analyzing the potential effects of retaining Woods as an endorsement a Marist survey suggests that only eight-percent of the public would be less likely to purchase products from a company using Tiger however. One-percent say they would actually be more likely to support that company with the vast majority (91%) indicating his presence will have little to no impact on their buying decisions.

Nearly seven in ten adults (69%) agree that Woods should deal with events privately against just a quarter (25%) who would like to see him address his marriage issues publicly. The Marist poll does not give its responders a list of options to choose from of how best Woods should address the public in the event he chooses to do so. There is a virtually nonexistent gender gap between the number of those in favor of seeing a public address or a private handling of his situation however.

Tiger Woods has won twelve of his fourteen majors in the 2000s and earned $81,547,410 from his performance on the course alone over the decade. It has been estimated that Woods has accumulated over a billion dollars from a combination of tour earnings and endorsements over his career. Woods unseated Michael Jordan’s thirteen year reign as America’s mot popular athlete in 2006 according to a Harris survey. In October of this year Harris also polled Woods as the second greatest “sports star” of all-time behind Jordan and ahead of baseball legend Babe Ruth.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / US WEEKLY

Poll: Corbett leads in Pennsylvania but race for Governor remains wide open

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Following some recent polling on the state of affairs in the Pennsylvania Senate Rasmussen Reports has just released their latest findings on the 2010 race for Governor.

For the moment it is Republican Attorney General Tom Corbett leading a hypothetical field of Democrats but as Rasmussen is quick to point out the race appears wide open at this point. Corbett leads Auditor General Jack Wagner 43-30%, Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato 44-28%, congressman Joe Hoeffel by a 48-26% margin and Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty by some 23-points (46-23%). While Corbett has a sizeable advantage on all four possible Democratic candidates over eight-percent of Pennsylvanians support some other candidate and one in five are currently undecided.

Governor Ed Rendell was reelected in 2006 by nearly twenty-percentage points over Republican Lynn Swann. Currently however the Governor has dropped to an approval rating of just 39% with 59% disapproving of his job performance. Just 20% of Pennsylvanians would cast their vote for a third Rendell term is state law permitted it against 45% who would not.

Corbett meanwhile has a decided advantage over his potential Democratic challengers in the area of name recognition, just as he receives a boost in his favorability by those who do have a strong opinion of him. Rasmussen is well know for a placing a polling emphasis on the number of those who have a “strong” opinion of a candidate, person or issue over those with general favorable or unfavorable opinions. Just 23% of Pennsylvanians remain unsure about Corbett with the Attorney General receiving the support of 22% of voters who hold a very favorable opinion of him against just 4% offering a very unfavorable description.

Only Jack Wagner even approaches those numbers on the Democratic side. Wagner does not generate a soft or strong opinion from 34% of Pennsylvanian voters and a 10-8% margin between those holding very favorable and unfavorable opinions of him respectively. The other three Democratic notables are essentially unknown by 40% of the state and all struggle with more viewing them very unfavorably than the other way around at this point in time.

Historically speaking the state of Pennsylvania has a strong Republican tradition that has given way to a competitive battle for the Governor’s mansion in recent decades. From 1861 to 1955 a total of twenty different Republicans served as Governor of the Keystone State against just three Democrats. George M. Leader who began his term in 1955 led something of a Democratic revival in Pennsylvania that has included five of the past ten state Governors, three of whom (Milton Shapp, Bob Casey, Ed Rendell) who have served two-terms.

Much of the political focus on Pennsylvania recently has been geared toward the impending Senate battle for 2010. In that race there are three well established candidates and at least two with strong name recognition. While the entire nation will take part in individual House elections, two-thirds will hold gubernatorial races and about a third of the Senate will be up for election the races in Pennsylvania will be a focal point for American politics in 2010. It’s politically moderate status in recent decades and important high-profile races in the Senate, House, and for Governor will heighten the Keystone State’s visibility as we head into the next decade.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / MATT ROURKE

Poll: Toomey continues to lead Specter, jumps ahead of Sestak in Pennsylvania Senate race

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After bouncing back in October polling Arlen Specter continues to trail Republican challenger Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania’s 2010 Senate race. Toomey meanwhile has received something of an autumn bounce in his hypothetical match up against Philadelphia-area Congressman Joe Sestak.

Rasmussen Reports indicates that Pat Toomey leads Specter 46-42%, a virtually identical margin to his 45-40% lead recorded two months ago. Prior to that Toomey led by as much as twelve-points (48-36%) in August while Specter was embroiled in town hall meetings and protests.

The bigger news is the sudden the spike for Toomey against Joe Sestak. In October Rasmussen had the race at a virtual dead-heat with Sestak holding a statistically insignificant 38-37% advantage. Two-months later it is now Toomey that has jumped out in front by a 44-38% margin. Eighteen-percent of Pennsylvania voters continue to favor either another candidate for Senate or remain uncertain of their preference.

Congressman Sestak’s struggles have not been with Pat Toomey alone since October. He is also losing some ground to Specter in their imminent battle for the Democratic Party nomination. Specter has received cautious welcome by Pennsylvanian Democrats since his party switch in April. That defection was no doubt fueled as much by his 21-point hole to Toomey in polls for a Republican primary challenge as it was a result of his politically moderate policies. Still Specter has jumped out to a thirteen-point lead over Sestak for the party nomination after that lead had been reduced to 46-42% in October. Specter continues to score with women in Pennsylvania to the tune of a twenty-point lead over Sestak. The two candidates split the male vote while Specter leads amongst older voters and Sestak secures an advantage among younger Pennsylvanians.

Name recognition is a huge advantage for Arlen Specter as just six-percent of Pennsylvania voters claim to have no opinion of the five-term Senator. The problem for Specter is that many more view him unfavorably (35%) than favorably (16%). This in spite of his long tenure, moderate policies in a politically moderate state, courageous battle with Hodgkin’s lymphoma and being named as one of America’s ten best Senators by Time Magazine as recently as 2006.

Joe Sestak has seen his unfavorable numbers rise as his name recognition increases. The Seventh District Congressman is almost evenly split 11-12% among those voters holding a very favorable and very unfavorable opinion. Rasmussen also points out that Democratic Governor Ed Rendell does not offer much assistance to each of the party hopefuls in the upcoming Senate race. Just 39% of Pennsylvanians approve of Rendell’s job performance against 59% who currently disapprove. Pat Toomey has no such problem on the Republican side and fairs a bit better accordingly. He currently enjoys a 15-9% favorable to unfavorable split.

Shifting to a national perspective the number of Pennsylvanians who approve of the President’s job performance has fallen yet lies within the range of most nationwide polling. Obama is at a nearly even 50-48% split between his approval and disapproval ratings in the Keystone State. A plurality of Pennsylvanians (40-35%) oppose President Obama’s plan for Afghanistan according to Rasmussen. This in spite of their cross tabs that show a 51-33% margin in the number of those thinking the troop surge of 30,000 to be a good idea and the 46-41% in support of the President’s eighteen-month timetable for withdraw.

44% of Pennsylvanians currently favor the Democratic health care plan on the table in the Senate - 53% remain opposed. Voters are also narrowly divided on the issue of public option that has received much attention in recent days. 42% of the voting public supports the plan against 39% who are opposed. In the instance that a large number of employers will drop coverage and push their workers to adopt the government-run plan however support drops to less than a quarter (24%), with more than six in ten opposed (62%).

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / HARAZ N. GHANBARI

Poll: Obama approval rating dips further in two new surveys

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Two recent polls show that President Obama’s approval rating has fallen to a new low.

Recent entries from both Marist and Quinnipiac have shown the President receiving the worst marks of his Presidency, 46%, despite majority support for his military plans in Afghanistan and some improved economic forecasts of late. Both organizations also show Obama with a disapproval of 44% amongst registered voters.

These are the worst set of figures from a number of recently released surveys in early-December. Generally the President scores highest when the sample is broadened to adults, understandable since a far higher number of Democratic “leaners” tend to not be registered than Republicans. Even his numbers amongst sampled adults have been all over the map recently however. A recent Bloomberg poll shows Obama solidly in the majority with a 54-41% approval to disapproval rating. Gallup who also surveys adults currently places the President at a 50-45% margin after he had dropped to as low as 47-46% over the weekend. Ipsos/McClatchy has the President locked in at an even 49-49% split and CNN/Opinion Research figures from last week had Obama pulling in a negative 48-50% rating.

Rasmussen Reports has consistently shown the President to be weakest amongst likely voters. Obama’s approval rating has ranged between 46% and 50% over the past several weeks currently settling in at 48% with 52% disapproving of his job performance.

The Marist poll shows a sharp decline of seven-points in Obama’s approval rating from their last survey in October. Democratic support has fallen to 77%, just 12% of Republican’s approve of Obama with a plurality of independents now disapproving of the President by a margin of 44-41%. In regards to the expectations game just nine-percent of voters feel Obama has exceeded their assumptions. 44% think he has met expectations with 42% feeling the President has fallen short. Disturbingly for Obama in every category including strongly supportive groups such as liberals, Democratic women and younger voters more suggest the President has failed to meet expectations than exceeded them.

An almost identical number (48-47%) of those polled by Marist believe the country to be headed in the right and wrong direction respectively. President Obama receives a poor 45% rating for his handling of the economy, and a narrow 47-43% positive split in the number of those who approve of his handling of the war in Afghanistan. One bright spot in the poll for the President is the 55% who still view him favorably against just 41% who do not. This includes a 49-43% margin amongst independents, the primary source for Obama’s falling approval rating in recent weeks.

Quinnipiac results mirror those from Marist with some differences in their cross tabs. Obama has dropped another two points in his overall approval rating from their last poll and has struggled heavily with independents who now give him just a 37-51% margin of approval. Obama does better with Democrats and Republicans in the Quinnipiac survey than Marist but his handling of the economy in that poll (41-54%) is critiqued even harsher. The President also struggles a tad more on the topic of Afghanistan according to the Quinnipiac poll. The latter of the two surveys pits his current approval of the war at an even 45-45% margin.

One silver lining for Obama supporters may be the fact that even in midst of these difficult times the current President is not charting new territory for low first-year approval ratings. Gallup currently measures Obama’s December rating at 50%. That’s actually a point higher than Ronald Reagan’s December 1981 rating and just three points lower than Bill Clinton’s from December of 1993. Both Presidents entered office under difficult economic conditions and both easily won reelection three years later.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / GERLAD HERBERT

Poll: Public mixed on global warming, sees divided scientific community on issue

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The issue of global warming is a hot-topic in the news this week with the climate change summit in Copenhagen underway.

The environment is in the spotlight and attitudes in the United States and abroad continue to shift on the issue. New scientific data arrives constantly supporting the theories of a warming planet and in many cases by the consequence of human activity. According to research from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies 2009 is shaping up to be the fifth warmest of 130-years on record.

Still the drumbeat of opposition grows louder fueled recently by a hacked email from the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit director Phil Jones. Many will suggests that Jones was deliberately “cooking” his data to make greater hay out of support of man made global warming. Others will only go so far as to say he was simply acting unethically to the extent of dressing up his presentation of otherwise solid factual evidence. Either way it has many Americans thinking, while the polls are tracking those thoughts.

A massive study of over 206,000 citizens from 128-different countries has just been released by Gallup. More than half of the world’s greenhouse emissions come from five nations; Japan, China, Russia, India and the United States. The level of understanding and acceptance from each country varies however. In Japan (99%) and the U.S. (97%) nearly every resident is aware of climate change. From Russia to China to India however that figure drops considerably to percentages of 85, 62, and 35 respectively. Furthermore the percentage of those in each nation that are both aware and consider greenhouse omissions a serious threat also ranges. Eight of ten in Japan acknowledge the danger, 63% in the United States, 39% in Russia, 29% in India and just 21% in China. Overall more than a third of Americans (35%) do not consider climate change to be a serious threat according to the Gallup survey.

Rasmussen Reports has also been following the debate closely in recent weeks. According to their research Americans are somewhat hesitant to accept the evidence behind global warming just as they see divisions within the scientific community. 52% of those polled believed that disagreements amongst scientists persist against just 25% who think they do not. 59% of the American public also feels it is at least somewhat likely that a number of scientists have falsified research data to prove their own theories and beliefs. In total 46% of the public agrees that global warming is not only real but poses a major threat to human society. 36% however do not believe the threat exits with a considerably large percentage (18%) that remain undecided on the issue.

In the midst of a struggling economy understandably most Americans have focused their attention away from the global warming debate. By a margin of 71-15% many more think the government should spend most of its time focusing on the economy rather than stopping global warming to help save the environment. These percentages are underscored by the 44% of the public that senses a conflict between economic growth and environmental protection and nearly half (50%) who believe that long term planetary trends are the more likely cause of global warming than human activity. In late-August Rasmussen also found that twice as many Americans think the climate change bill in Congress would hurt the national economy rather than help it.

The United Nations has been a top advocate of anti-global warming initiatives, but the American public does not always look kindly upon that organization. 29% in the U.S. see the U.N. as an ally but 15% do not with nearly half (47%) of the opinion that they fall somewhere in the middle. As for Al Gore, Rasmussen finds that just 31% of public considers him an expert on the global warming issue. The number includes less than half of Democrats (48%), just 12% of Republicans and little more than a quarter of those unaffiliated (27%) despite the high recognition he has received.

Other polls show a greater acceptance toward the issue of climate change from the American public. Although down eight-points from a similar survey in 2008 an ABC News/Washington Post poll shows 72% of the public believing that world temperatures “probably” have been going up over the past hundred years. Although the number of those showing great concern has dropped recently 56% of those polled by NBC News/Wall Street Journal believe at least some action should be taken to combat the affect of global warming. An additional 29% feel that more research on the subject is required with just 13% thinking either unwarranted.

65% of adults from a two-month old Pew Research survey believe global warming to be a serious issue but a declining number feel that human activity is the chief culprit behind the problem. Down nine-points from April of last year 36% think human activity is the reason, 16% see natural patterns as why and another 16% don’t know or are uncertain of the cause.

The proposed “cap and trade” system where the government would issue permits limiting the amount of greenhouse gases a company can release sees mixed levels of support and opposition between polls. ABC indicates steady support throughout 2009 with 53% currently favoring the program against 42% who are opposed. In a related question from a late-October survey conducted by NBC Americans approved of the idea of such a program by a margin of just 48-43%. Half in a Pew Research poll also favor setting limits on companies against 39% who are opposed. When a CNN/Opinion Research poll asked about “cap and trade” however some 60% of responders favored its implementation against just 37% who were opposed.

As the debate rages on it will be interesting to see what if any progress the Copenhagen summit has on the view of Americans and the world on the global warming issue. So long as economic turmoil grips the nation and is the main source of headlines and concern however climate change may continue to take a back seat.

Poll: Majority of Americans support Obama's plans for Afghanistan

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The first set of data from polling on Afghanistan is coming in and USA Today/Gallup has a jump on the early results.

A survey released this morning of over a thousands adults nationwide shows modest bipartisan support for President Obama’s plans for a troop increase in Afghanistan. 51% of adults favor the President’s plan to increase forces by 30,000 while setting a timetable for their return as part of a lengthy Tuesday night address to the American public. 40% opposed the plan and nine-percent remain uncertain.

As has rarely been the case with proposals made by Obama and/or the Democratic Congress support for the Afghan troop surge is met with support from both Democrats and Republicans. Prior to the President’s announcement earlier in the week a clear majority of Democrats (57%) were opposed to a troop surge. Only 29% favored a plan that would increase levels with an additional 10% in favor of keeping them roughly the same. Perhaps due to the President’s popularity within his own party and his ability to sway Democratic support there is now almost a total reversal in the opinion of Democrats on the issue. 58% now favor the current plan to add 30,000 troops while settling at least a tentative timetable for withdraw in 2011. 35% in the party are still opposed with seven-percent having no opinion.

Republican support is a bit more consistent. 65% wanted to see a troop increase of 40,000 as requested by General McCrystal prior to Obama’s Tuesday night address. An additional seven-percent favored the adding of a number smaller than 40,000, eight-percent supported keeping the number the same and only 17% requested the troop levels being reduced. Now support amongst the GOP closely mirrors that of Democrats. 55% are in favor of the current plan, 37% are opposed and eight-percent claim to have no opinion on the matter.

Independent voters are holding firm with their opinions from before and after the Obama speech. Less than two weeks ago the block was split almost evenly between those seeking an increase of 40,000 troops (36%) and those in favor of withdraw (37%). There was also a 10-8% margin in those independents who sought a smaller number of troops sent to Afghanistan and those who felt the current levels were sufficient. Now we see independents in favor of (45%) and opposed (44%) to the Obama plan almost evenly.

Wording plays a part in this current Gallup poll. It’s difficult to tell whether responders were asked the questions “no opinion” or “unsure” on the topic. Those who specifically say they are “unsure” may still be debating both sides of the issue whereas those who claimed to have “no opinion” could be a combination of that and those that aren’t following the topic closely or at all. It would be interesting to see how many Americans in each party remain decidedly “unsure” of where they sit on the issue rather than boxed into two basic categories and a third that is somewhat idiosyncratic.

Further down Gallup’s survey we see opinions on the exact number of American troops President Obama plans on sending to Afghanistan. A slight plurality (38%) of all adults think the 30,000 figure proposed by the President is about right against 36% who think it too high and 18% too low. Interestingly in spite of their support for Obama’s plan overall 43% of Democrats believe the 30,000 troop figure is too high. 39% think it to be about right but only 12% consider the number to be too low. A slight plurality of Republicans (38%) meanwhile think the 30,000 number to be about right but nearly twice as many in the party (35%) think the number too low rather than too high (18%). Independents are once again a ideologically divided on the issue. A nearly identical number (39%) think an increase of 30,000 American troops is too high for Afghanistan and about right (38%). 16% meanwhile consider the added forces to be too small.

Lastly Gallup gathers opinions on the topic of a timetable for withdraw. The President offered up an eighteen month timeframe where our troops “will begin to come home…taking into account conditions on the ground.” What this specifically entails is left up to much debate but for now the American public remains largely opposed to the setting of any timetable, at least at this point. 46% overall suggest it is too early to set a timetable for withdraw. That number includes the vast majority of Republicans (72%) a solid plurality of independents (43%) and better than a third of Democrats (34%). 21% responders favor the eighteen month timetable with 27% of Democrats, 22% of independents and just 12% of Republicans in agreement. An identical number of Democrats to the total of those who are opposed to Obama’s plan for Afghanistan in general (35%) feel American troops should be withdrawn sooner than eighteen months. Just over a quarter (26%) overall agree with a shorter timetable including 27% of independents and one in nine (11%) Republicans.

Gallup points out that President Obama has managed to create the rather unusual situation of a modest majority of both Democrats and Republicans agreeing with his current strategy on an issue. Strategically speaking Obama managed to accomplish this despite ruffling the feathers of Democrats who were opposed to any troop increase in Afghanistan and Republicans who are heavily against any sort of withdraw timetable.

The idea that Obama has at least some sort of withdraw plan that energizes Democrats and has increased troop levels that at least somewhat please Republicans probably explains his current level of support from both groups. Yet less than half of independents are on board with the Obama-plan and it will be interesting to see what if any impact the President’s decision on Afghanistan will have on his overall approval numbers.

...the bottom line at the moment is that Obama has managed to generate a
slim majority support among all Americans for his new policy. Obama faces the
highest level of skepticism among independents, but has knit together a
coalition of support that includes a majority of both Democrats and Republicans.
Given that in large part, political and pundit voices that are solidly partisan
are debating Afghanistan, this majority approval level among Democrats and
Republicans may be the most politically significant short-term reaction to the
new policy. – Frank Newport / Gallup.com

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / JULIE JACOBSON

Poll: New Jersey voters share opinions on a range of topics

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We wait to see what political implications will stem from President Obama’s major speech last night to the American public on Afghanistan. In the meantime let’s shift our attention from broad analysis of the United States to the Garden State.

A week ago Quinnipiac University completed a couple of surveys tracking the opinion of voters in New Jersey – their first releases since the Governor’s election earlier this month. Here is a list of ten of the more interesting findings from those polls.

1) Gov. Corzine’s approval falls to new low, state legislature highly unpopular as well

Three weeks past Jon Corzine’s loss to Republican Chris Christie in his bid for reelection the Governor's job approval level has fallen to a new low. Just 31% of New Jersey voters approve of the Governor’s performance against 59% who disapprove. Corzine has struggled mostly in thirty-percentiles all year and those low figures ultimately crushed his chances of winning a second term. His rating amongst Republicans is a nearly untraceable six-percent. Also at near record low approval is the NJ state legislature. Down seven-points from June just 21% give the Democratically controlled legislature high marks. This figure includes just 17% of independents and one in ten Republicans.

2) Approval for Senators Lautenberg and Menendez inches downward

Approval for New Jersey’s Senators continues to slide downward as well. Even virtual political institutions like Frank Lautenberg are beginning to feel the heat from a disgruntled electorate. Lautenberg has been a member of the U.S. Senate since first being elected in 1982 and is the second oldest member behind only fellow Democrat Robert Byrd of West Virginia. Lautenberg’s current approval rating of 40% represents a drop of seven-points since April and his disapproval (41%) is slightly higher for one of the first times in his political career. Bob Menendez approval has also fallen by five-points since April of this year and he currently sits with a 36-37% approval to disapproval margin.

3) President Obama’s approval ratings drop, stays consistent with national numbers

As has been tracked by any number of polls recently the drop in President Obama’s popularity over the past two months is also reflected by Quinnipiac’s recent survey of New Jersey. Currently Obama has a 51% approval rating with 42% disapproving of his job performance. Interestingly those figures are essentially identical to Gallup’s measurement of voters nationwide from just this morning. The President’s approval has dropped five-points from an August survey and is down from a high of 68% recorded in mid-June. Just as is the case in most states New Jersey voters give Obama low marks on his handling of health care and the situation in Afghanistan.

4) Governor Elect Christie’s favorables hold steady, unfavorables rising

Chris Christie’s narrow victory over Governor Corzine in the Gubernatorial Election earlier this month has not translated into an increase of popular support. Christie won’t take office until January of next year but as more voters in New Jersey become familiar with the Governor Elect his popularity seems to be holding steady while his unfavorable ratings begin to rise. In June the Quinnipiac survey measured Christie at a 36% favorable rating against 16% who held a negative opinion of the Republican candidate and a large 46% who had not as of yet formed an opinion. Currently Christie is holding steady at 36% favorability but the nine-point drop in those who have not heard enough about him has been added to equal the 25% who now view him negatively.

5) Most voters see New Jersey budget in a state of crisis

A record high number of voters in the Garden State are indicated as saying the current state budget problems are somewhat or very serious. Up a whopping sixteen-points from an August poll 83% now consider the state’s budget woes to be “very” serious. Another 14% claim it be at least “somewhat” of a problem meaning that concern over New Jersey’s state budget is by and large universal. It ought to be noted that New Jersey voters have consistently shown concern over their state’s budget in recent years. The most optimistic total gathered from Quinnipiac came in December of 2002 when 35% suggested the budget problems were very serious and another 51% claimed them to be at least somewhat serious.

6) Voters consistently oppose raising of taxes, but agree on where they should be raised

When asked how best to balance the state budget a large majority of voters (68%) would prefer to see government programs and services cut before their taxes are raised. Just 23% currently feel that the raising of taxes is the best way to deal with the current budget woes. This is lower but fairly consistent with polls from recent years. Three years ago just 29% wanted to see an increase in taxes. In the event that taxes must be raised however the political parties are mostly in agreement where the increases should be implemented. Support for the raising of tolls is most popular with 32% of independents and 31% of both Democrats and Republicans in New Jersey.

7) Majority of New Jersey voters are against providing school vouchers

New Jersey voters as a whole have somewhat switched their opinion on school vouchers. When asked if they would support providing parents with tax money for school vouchers to help pay for their children to attend private or religious schools 54% are opposed to the idea against 43% who favor it. This is an increase in opposition towards the voucher program from mid-2001 when Quinnipiac showed 50% of Garden State voters in favor of such a plan against just 43% who were opposed. A narrow majority of Republicans (52%) approve of vouchers, but just 36% of Democrats and 41% of independents agree. Debates on both the side of public education and taxes play a role in shaping of public opinion on the issue.

8) A narrow majority voters are in favor of expanding early childhood education

In a close “race” 51% of New Jersey voters feel there should be an expansion of state funded early childhood education – 45% are opposed to such a measure. This is a more partisan topic than school vouchers with 71% of Democrats in favor of expanding programs and 63% of Republicans opposed to the idea. Independents (48-48%) and men (47-47%) are evenly split on the issue. There is also a racial divide with an overwhelming majority (86%) of black voters favoring more dollars for early education against just 41% of white voters who feel the same. In the area of the state closely bordering Philadelphia a very narrow 50-47% divide favor and oppose more funding.

9) Most voters believe Supreme Court Justices should be chosen by their qualifications

Once in office Governor Chris Christie will select four state Supreme Court justices. A fairly narrow majority (54%) of New Jersey voters would prefer Christie to choose his justices based on their qualifications. Four in ten meanwhile would rather he place more emphasis on the views held by each judge on controversial social issues. Although surely the 49% of Republicans and 42% of Democrats who feel the new Governor should consider the issues differ on what issues are of most importance, this poll question is relatively non-partisan. 51% of Democrats and 47% of Republicans think qualifications are the more important factor when selecting a justice - 62% of independents agree.

10) Narrow plurality of New Jersey voters oppose same-sex marriage

A hot button issue nationally is a polarizing topic in the Garden State as well. Currently 46% of voters polled by Quinnipiac support same-sex marriage against 49% who are opposed. While independents at 49-45% support to opposition are split almost evenly on the topic voters from the two major parties are very much divided. Democrats favor same-sex marriage by a margin of 60-34% whereas Republicans (25-69%) are largely opposed. Liberals favor same-sex marriage by 71% with conservatives opposed to the tune of 74%. Younger voters age 18-34 (63%), those who make over $100,000 per-year (58%) and holding college degrees (55%) are most in favor. Conversely, older voters 55+ (37%), those making less than $50,000 (39%), and not having a college degree (41%) are least in favor.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / CHRISTOPHER BARTH

Poll: Public opinion remains divided on what to do in Afghanistan

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Little more than a day before President Obama’s much anticipated speech the public remains closely divided on the issue of America’s involvement in Afghanistan.

The latest poll released by USA Today/Gallup this morning indicates a modest shift in support for troop level increases from their previous poll over two weeks ago. Overall 47% of the 1,017 American adults surveyed by Gallup favor some sort of increase in troop levels. Specifically 37% favor an increase of 40,000 as recommended by General Stanley McChrystal, U.S. commander in Afghanistan, and an additional 10% of responders want an increase of under-40,000. Dropping five-points from the last poll 39% now want to see a reduction in troop levels, whereas 9% think current U.S. levels should be maintained.

The divided public places President Obama in a curious position, at least in terms of his own support on the issue of Afghanistan and foreign policy at large. Obama’s overall approval amongst Democrats remains high yet according to polling Dems are strongly against increases in troop levels. Just 29% want to see some sort of increase against 57% who favor a reduction in forces. Republicans meanwhile are solidly against Obama’s foreign policy and give him low approval marks in general of late. Yet 72% of Republicans support troop increases in Afghanistan, including nearly two-thirds (65%) that seek the requested 40,000. The key group of voters remains independents. Mirroring overall totals 46% of independents favor a troop increase. 36% specifically want 40,000 sent overseas against 37% who prefer a troop reduction and 8% wanting to keep the current number in tact.

The U.S. involvement in Afghanistan has not received the same level of criticism as Iraq in spite of the overwhelming number of Americans who rate the situation as poor. Holding relatively steady from previous polls 60% of the public feels the United States did not make a mistake by sending troops to Afghanistan after 9/11/01 against just 36% who do think it was error in judgment. This comes despite the 66% of Americans who also feel the situation abroad is going “badly” against just 32% who say it is going well.

The divided public opinion is reflected in others polls as well. Rasmussen Reports in a recent survey finds that 45% of Americans either want U.S. troops out of Afghanistan now or within a year against 43% who are opposed to any sort of timetable. Other mid-November polls track public opinion on a range of topics. The often contradictory looking responses from one poll or one question to the next illustrate the complexity of the issue in Afghanistan.

69% of adults according to a recent CBS News poll rate the situation in Afghanistan as going badly – just 23% feel it is going well. There is a more evenly divided number on the question of whether troop levels should be increased. 32% want an increase in levels, 39% a decrease and a large number (20%) would prefer our forces to remain at the same level they are currently. In spite of the plurality of those who would like to see a decrease in troop levels according to the CBS poll 36% believe the situation in Afghanistan will improve if the United States does in fact send more troops. Just 22% think such a move will make matters worse and 31% think it will have no impact.

CNN/Opinion Research mirrors the previously discussed Gallup poll with just 32% of its responders considering the situation in Afghanistan to being going well against 66% who believe it to be going poorly. A majority of the public (52%) also opposes the war in Afghanistan. The exact number of troop levels seems to be a sticking point for some. The CNN poll finds that a narrow plurality (50-49%) of responders favor an increase of 34,000 troops, but support falls to just 42% when asked whether they would favor the President sending a smaller number of troops overseas.

Lastly an ABC/Washington Post survey shows that by a 52-44% margin most adults think the war in Afghanistan has not been worth fighting when all factors are considered. There is a virtually even split (45-46%) between those who like to see a smaller or larger number of troops sent to Afghanistan in the event the President orders an increase – although no exact number is specified. 55% of Americans are at least somewhat confident President Obama can develop a strategy for success in Afghanistan although only 45% of those polled approve of his handling of the situation to this point.

By all accounts the President has difficult decisions to make regarding the situation in Afghanistan. Much of that should be revealed to the American public tomorrow night. With a large majority of Americans rating the situation in Afghanistan as poor, but at least a plurality in favor of some sort of troop increase Obama’s likely play is to announce that more American forces will join in the fight. The President does so however at the risk of alienating his own base just as any increase of smaller than 40,000 will not sit well with the majority of Republicans. The wild card here is political independents. Obama’s announcement Tuesday night will be deemed effective if he can convert a sizeable number of those skeptical or tentative to ultimately side with his plans for Afghanistan.

Poll: Half still blame Bush for bad economy

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A new survey from Rasmussen Reports finds that half the country (50%) still blames the Bush administration for the current economic problems gripping the country. President Obama who has now been in office for over ten-months receives the blame of 42% of voters with an additional eight-percent undecided between the two.

Bush left office in January of 2009 with some of the worst approval ratings ever received by a President. Although initially greeted warmly by the vast majority of Americans Bush’s successor Obama has incurred slumping popularity, particularly on the economic front.

Last month Bush led Obama by a more modest 49-45% in this poll question. While being hit with slightly less blame than the last survey released early this month there is still an increase in the numbers of fingers pointed in Obama’s direction since October. That month Rasmussen found that just 37% of American voters blamed the current President for the country’s economic woes against 55% who considered it Bush’s mishandling. Women are more critical of Bush than Obama by thirteen-percentage points whereas men are almost evenly divided between the two. Younger adults age 18-29 are more critical of the Bush administration but unaffiliated voters now blame Obama’s policies slightly more than former President Bush’s.

Focusing on other minor positives for Obama, the President is also slightly buoyed by greater confidence in his economic judgment this month. By a 57-33% margin voters still trust their own economic judgment on the issues more than the President’s but that’s an improvement from the 62-27% split Obama received in late-October.

Greater economic confidence and improving stock market have not been enough to improve the President’s sagging approval ratings of late. Rasmussen gives one of the harshest public assessments of Obama’s job performance, currently at 46%, but the average from nine major polls released since mid-November hovers at just over 50%. Public support for health care, a major piece of the Obama agenda, continues to fall just as questions over the President’s handling of the situation in Afghanistan rise.

Obama will address the nation on his Afghanistan troop strategy on Tuesday perhaps shifting attention away from the economic state of America if only for a day or two.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Tony Gutierrez