Poll: Public opinion remains divided on what to do in Afghanistan

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Little more than a day before President Obama’s much anticipated speech the public remains closely divided on the issue of America’s involvement in Afghanistan.

The latest poll released by USA Today/Gallup this morning indicates a modest shift in support for troop level increases from their previous poll over two weeks ago. Overall 47% of the 1,017 American adults surveyed by Gallup favor some sort of increase in troop levels. Specifically 37% favor an increase of 40,000 as recommended by General Stanley McChrystal, U.S. commander in Afghanistan, and an additional 10% of responders want an increase of under-40,000. Dropping five-points from the last poll 39% now want to see a reduction in troop levels, whereas 9% think current U.S. levels should be maintained.

The divided public places President Obama in a curious position, at least in terms of his own support on the issue of Afghanistan and foreign policy at large. Obama’s overall approval amongst Democrats remains high yet according to polling Dems are strongly against increases in troop levels. Just 29% want to see some sort of increase against 57% who favor a reduction in forces. Republicans meanwhile are solidly against Obama’s foreign policy and give him low approval marks in general of late. Yet 72% of Republicans support troop increases in Afghanistan, including nearly two-thirds (65%) that seek the requested 40,000. The key group of voters remains independents. Mirroring overall totals 46% of independents favor a troop increase. 36% specifically want 40,000 sent overseas against 37% who prefer a troop reduction and 8% wanting to keep the current number in tact.

The U.S. involvement in Afghanistan has not received the same level of criticism as Iraq in spite of the overwhelming number of Americans who rate the situation as poor. Holding relatively steady from previous polls 60% of the public feels the United States did not make a mistake by sending troops to Afghanistan after 9/11/01 against just 36% who do think it was error in judgment. This comes despite the 66% of Americans who also feel the situation abroad is going “badly” against just 32% who say it is going well.

The divided public opinion is reflected in others polls as well. Rasmussen Reports in a recent survey finds that 45% of Americans either want U.S. troops out of Afghanistan now or within a year against 43% who are opposed to any sort of timetable. Other mid-November polls track public opinion on a range of topics. The often contradictory looking responses from one poll or one question to the next illustrate the complexity of the issue in Afghanistan.

69% of adults according to a recent CBS News poll rate the situation in Afghanistan as going badly – just 23% feel it is going well. There is a more evenly divided number on the question of whether troop levels should be increased. 32% want an increase in levels, 39% a decrease and a large number (20%) would prefer our forces to remain at the same level they are currently. In spite of the plurality of those who would like to see a decrease in troop levels according to the CBS poll 36% believe the situation in Afghanistan will improve if the United States does in fact send more troops. Just 22% think such a move will make matters worse and 31% think it will have no impact.

CNN/Opinion Research mirrors the previously discussed Gallup poll with just 32% of its responders considering the situation in Afghanistan to being going well against 66% who believe it to be going poorly. A majority of the public (52%) also opposes the war in Afghanistan. The exact number of troop levels seems to be a sticking point for some. The CNN poll finds that a narrow plurality (50-49%) of responders favor an increase of 34,000 troops, but support falls to just 42% when asked whether they would favor the President sending a smaller number of troops overseas.

Lastly an ABC/Washington Post survey shows that by a 52-44% margin most adults think the war in Afghanistan has not been worth fighting when all factors are considered. There is a virtually even split (45-46%) between those who like to see a smaller or larger number of troops sent to Afghanistan in the event the President orders an increase – although no exact number is specified. 55% of Americans are at least somewhat confident President Obama can develop a strategy for success in Afghanistan although only 45% of those polled approve of his handling of the situation to this point.

By all accounts the President has difficult decisions to make regarding the situation in Afghanistan. Much of that should be revealed to the American public tomorrow night. With a large majority of Americans rating the situation in Afghanistan as poor, but at least a plurality in favor of some sort of troop increase Obama’s likely play is to announce that more American forces will join in the fight. The President does so however at the risk of alienating his own base just as any increase of smaller than 40,000 will not sit well with the majority of Republicans. The wild card here is political independents. Obama’s announcement Tuesday night will be deemed effective if he can convert a sizeable number of those skeptical or tentative to ultimately side with his plans for Afghanistan.

Poll: Half still blame Bush for bad economy

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A new survey from Rasmussen Reports finds that half the country (50%) still blames the Bush administration for the current economic problems gripping the country. President Obama who has now been in office for over ten-months receives the blame of 42% of voters with an additional eight-percent undecided between the two.

Bush left office in January of 2009 with some of the worst approval ratings ever received by a President. Although initially greeted warmly by the vast majority of Americans Bush’s successor Obama has incurred slumping popularity, particularly on the economic front.

Last month Bush led Obama by a more modest 49-45% in this poll question. While being hit with slightly less blame than the last survey released early this month there is still an increase in the numbers of fingers pointed in Obama’s direction since October. That month Rasmussen found that just 37% of American voters blamed the current President for the country’s economic woes against 55% who considered it Bush’s mishandling. Women are more critical of Bush than Obama by thirteen-percentage points whereas men are almost evenly divided between the two. Younger adults age 18-29 are more critical of the Bush administration but unaffiliated voters now blame Obama’s policies slightly more than former President Bush’s.

Focusing on other minor positives for Obama, the President is also slightly buoyed by greater confidence in his economic judgment this month. By a 57-33% margin voters still trust their own economic judgment on the issues more than the President’s but that’s an improvement from the 62-27% split Obama received in late-October.

Greater economic confidence and improving stock market have not been enough to improve the President’s sagging approval ratings of late. Rasmussen gives one of the harshest public assessments of Obama’s job performance, currently at 46%, but the average from nine major polls released since mid-November hovers at just over 50%. Public support for health care, a major piece of the Obama agenda, continues to fall just as questions over the President’s handling of the situation in Afghanistan rise.

Obama will address the nation on his Afghanistan troop strategy on Tuesday perhaps shifting attention away from the economic state of America if only for a day or two.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Tony Gutierrez

Poll: Americans spending less but giving more cheer this Thanksgiving

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Thanksgiving is nearly upon us and with so much social and political bickering from all sides it’s nice to enjoy a day or two off with family, friends and food.

Rasmussen Reports conducted some rather light polling on the topic this morning. In a positive glimpse the survey of 1,000 adults find that 53% are more thankful now than this time last year - just 11% claim to be less thankful and 35% about the same. These figures are fairly even amongst genders, those married compared to single and families with children at home or not. However a surprisingly staggering difference is between the races. 77% of African Americans claim to be more thankful for Thanksgiving 2009 than they were a year ago against just 46% of white’s who share in their increased sense of contentment.

Amongst other categories not involving family and friends the Rasmussen survey finds that 19% of adults are particularly thankful for their jobs, 15% of their country, 6% for their community and 14% for something else. The struggling economy meanwhile is affecting Americans’ shopping habits. Just 9% plan to spend more on this Thanksgiving dinner than they did a year ago with 42% spending less.

Additionally the Rasmussen survey finds that just as many adults will visit a relatives house for T-Day dinner (43%) than will be staying home or hosting (42%). Just 5% plan to have their meal over a friend’s home and 6% at a restaurant. With the exception of the jump in restaurant attendance being claimed by American adults, up from just 3% in 2008, those figures remain relatively consistent from 2008.

On the topic of food 84% plan to have or be served turkey as their main course this year. 5% say it will be ham, 7% something else and 4% are not sure. 46% also think they’ll end up eating too much against 43% who apparently figure they can pace themselves pretty well at the dinner table. Again these figures are largely consistent with other Ramussen surveys from recent years.

In addition to family, friends and turkey, one of the hallmarks of Thanksgiving is of course football. “Turkey Bowl” high school rivalries and playoff games are played out across the region as are professional contests always involving Dallas, Detroit and in more recent years a third evening contest. In Philadelphia last year the Eagles took part in one of these evening games blowing out the Arizona Cardinals 48-20 in what proved to be a poor forecast of the NFC Championship Game involving both teams.

According to an unscientific poll from

www.philly.com responders claimed to enjoy the Thanksgiving NFL games over local high school playoff contests by better than a two-to-one ratio. In South Jersey 53% of website visitors also claimed that the high school playoff games detract from the more standard rivalry contests.

Lastly I came across an interesting little poll conducted by Fox News six years ago. With many Americans at the time speculating the Democratic candidate for the 2004 election could be Senator Hillary Clinton Fox asked 900 registered voters who would they rather have Thanksgiving dinner with; her or sitting President George W. Bush. By a 45-35% margin it was President Bush who came out on top. Just perhaps we could view this as a notable precursor to his success the following fall when the likeability factor played a major role in Bush’s reelection over Democratic rival John Kerry.

Enjoy a safe and happy Thanksgiving!

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / ALEX BRANDON

Poll: Support for health care plan plummets, Democrats push ahead

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The big discussion in Washington begins just as the American public is voicing its strongest opposition to date.

A day after the Senate begins debate on health care legislation a new survey from Rasmussen Reports shows the highest level of opposition yet recorded. In a staggering reversal from last week the poll suggests just 38% of American voters now favor the Democratic health care plan against 56% who are opposed. The previous poll taken on November 13-14 showed support had grown to its highest level since mid-September with 47% of voters in favor against 49% in opposition.

This past weekend Senate Democrats narrowly obtained the sixty vote supermajority needed to commence with talks free from the threat of Republican filibuster tactics. As reported on by Time Magazine’s Karen Tumulty in an article from this morning, the Republicans are stepping up their efforts to derail the Democratic plan.

The minority intends to launch a series of surgical strikes on key parts of the bill, and to raise questions about whether it all adds up to what the Democrats are claiming…What they [Republicans] are counting on now, and what they are hoping to inflame, is public doubt. – Karen Tumulty / Time

The latest Rasmussen poll that also showed support for the plan at 45% earlier this month may come as sobering news to the Democratic Party’s aspirations of passing legislation before the end of the year. Those “strongly” in favor of the plan are outnumbered by those strongly against by better than a two to one ratio (21-43%). Also according to Rasmussen just 16% of voters believe health care costs will go down with the passage of this current plan against 60% who think they will go up. Nearly three-quarters of Democrats (73%) favor the plan but 83% of Republicans are against it, as are seven in ten non-affiliated voters. Democrats consider health care reform the top priority for President Obama while Republicans and unafilliateds side with debt reduction as being his most important job.

Fox News is also on the beat and reporting on survey results that are even harsher than those put forth by Rasmussen. The Fox poll shows support for the plan stuck at 35%, its average from the past four months. As Americans become more educated on the reform proposals of Congress the opposition continues to increase, standing now at 51%. The high level of opposition being tracked in recent polls is not at the expense of the numbers of those seeking significant changes to our health care system. Quinnipiac in a recent survey shows that 61% of the American public is eager for reform even as it opposes the current Democratic plan on the table.

Gallup just released a poll focusing its attention on the full list of health problems being cited by the American public. Access to health care again leads the list with nearly a third of poll responders (32%) considering it to be their top concern. While that figure has remained fairly steady from last year the emergence of the H1N1 “swine flu” pandemic has entered the new list at 16%. Obesity and cancer have registered declines but its concern over the cost of health care, down seven-points to 18%, that marks the most notable drop from November of 2008.

President Obama who had until recently maintained the majority of approval from Americans has cratered below 50% in several polls. It is specifically his lack of popularity on the issue of health care that has inflicted the most damage to his credibility with the public. The previously mentioned new poll from Qunnipiac University pegs the President’s approval on health care at a 41-53% positive to negative margin. Just 19% think that Obama can ram home the health care plan while keeping his promise not to add to the federal deficit - 72% disagree.

In spite of concern and negativity surrounding the issue Senate Democrats are well aware that the greatest challenge is not with the Republicans or even the current mindset of the American public. Top priority for majority leader Harry Reid is to keep his own party in line. The big four Senators who tentatively voted with Reid on Saturday but could sink the plan are centrist’s; Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana and notable independent Joe Lieberman of Connecticut. Not only are three of the four Senators from heavily Republican-leaning states Lieberman is viewed at best as a wavering Democrat, troubled by economic concerns and a government run plan allowing for public option.

These four votes could be the key for Democrats in their plan for a victory on health care reform. Winning over the hearts and minds of the American public however represents another task altogether.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / ALEX BRANDON

Analysis: Obama's approval rating, who has it right?

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Fox News made some waves this morning when it released the results of a survey showing President Obama’s approval rating had dropped to a new low.

According to their polling Obama has cratered well below the 50% threshold, standing now at an even 46-46% approval to disapproval margin. That represents a drop from the 50-41% rating split the President received from the previous Fox poll released three weeks ago. Most polls are subject to some varying form of discrepancy and error. Efficient polling is not an easy task to undertake. Yet with a media and public perception so driven by the effects of numbers it is important to get an understanding of how those numbers are being gathered.

One big thing stands out about the Fox News poll when measuring the validity of these most recent figures is the sudden and dramatic drop of support from independents. While it’s typical for political independents to sway more rapidly in their level of support than the more locked in Democrat and Republican blocks Fox shows a highly volatile group of voters.

In August President Obama’s approval rating among independents stood at a 49-44% approval to disapproval margin. Two polls conducted in September showed his totals ranging from 51-42% to 46-41%. Then Obama cratered in early-October, down to a 42-47% split only to rebound considerably late in the month to 49-34%. Suddenly the President’s numbers have plummeted again, down a startling sixteen-points to his current 34-51% standing in just three weeks. What gives here?

Considering that the approval ratings given from Democrats and Republicans in the poll have remained almost identical from late-October could we expect another jump in independent support for Obama next month? If so it’s very likely the President will go back over the 50% threshold, but is this all a true reflection of what the electorate thinks of the President's job performance?

While having little impact on the results from this poll Fox is also somewhat notorious for gathering a higher percentage of Republican voters and a far lower percentage of self-describe independents than what are generally agreed upon to be their national totals. Although the poll was conducted from 900-registered voters the fairly high +/- 6% margin of error between political groupings brings that total down to 844-responders. 40.5% claimed to affiliate as Democrats, 38.4% Republicans and 21.1% independents. However Rasmussen Reports who studies partisan trends each month and works in affiliation with Fox concludes the current party balance is 37.8% Democrat, 31.9% Republican and 30.3% independent.

Fox’s low score for President Obama is balanced against the opposite extreme by a recent survey from ABC News/Washington Post. Showing remarkable consistency over the past three months the President’s approval rating in this poll stands at 56% with a disapproval of 42%. Sadly unlike Fox the ABC poll does not offer us any data on how each political group responded to their questions. That the ABC poll also uses random sampling and pulls their data from 1,001 “adults” instead of “registered” or “likely voters gives is some insight as to why there is such a large ten-point gap between the two aforementioned polls.

The tendency is for a higher percentage of Republicans to vote and be registered to do so. This means a sampling of all adults would favor President Obama and Democrats in general as those who are not voters or enlisted with any party tend to lean to the left. Furthermore the party balance recorded in this poll sends up something of a red flag; 35% Democrat, 21% Republican, 39% independent. Even after leaners are taken into consideration the totals are still 54% Democrat, 38% Republican and 47% independent. The sixteen-point gap between Democrats and Republicans and the nine-point lead independents hold over the GOP are both in all likelihood greatly exaggerated.

Interestingly if we chose to apply the data collected from the Fox News survey on the preference of each political party to this ABC poll the President’s approval rating would only come in at 46%, an identical total between polls. Still the skew in numbers towards those affiliated with the Democratic Party undoubtedly plays a major role in these positive totals for Obama.

So where does the truth lie? As in most cases probably somewhere in the middle. The average of eight major polls, including Fox and ABC, taken this month calculates President Obama’s approval rating at just over 51%. This total is exactly half-way between the 46% recorded by Fox News and the 56% gathered from ABC News/Washington Post.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Pablo Martinez Monsivais

Analysis: Can Sarah Palin win the Republican nomination? What is she up against

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Speculation continues to circulate as to whether Sarah Palin will officially make a bid for the White House in 2012.

Never straying far from the media vista Palin has once again been plastered on the front pages and no doubt received heavy discussion around water coolers this week. Her recently released autobiography is a bestseller, she has made a number of high profile interviews and even found controversy along way – this time slamming Newsweek as “sexist” and “out of context” for her portrayal on a recent cover of the magazine.

Yet it’s the subject matter from publications such as Newsweek openly declaring, as their headlines suggests, (“How Do You Solve a Problem Like Sarah Palin: She’s bad news for the GOP – and for everybody else, too.”) that brings to light the important questions. Often on the campaign trail last year Republican Presidential nominee John McCain accused then Senator Barack Obama of being more of a national celebrity than political statesman. If however Obama was to be the celebrity du jour than Palin has become a genuine pop-star. She holds court over legions of adoring fans but receives the scorn of just as many. Overcoming both political obstacles and public perception is a treacherous road traveled but Palin needs to sustain her level of popularity while proving her substance to a sizable block of skeptics. Let the numbers speak.

Recent polls have indicated that Sarah Palin has fallen to a distant third in Republican preference for their party’s nominee in 2012. That said a recent Rasmussen survey indicates a considerable number of GOP voters are still on board with Sarah as the 59-21% margin of those who feel she shares their values against those who do not would attest. This comes at a time when just 18% of Republicans believe their GOP representatives in Congress have done a good job representing their base. Being a relative newcomer to the scene and not tarnished as a current member of the House or Senate Palin perhaps has an opportunity to succeed as the non-establishment candidate even after being tapped as John McCain’s running mate just last year.

While much has been made of Palin’s role and whether she is a good thing for the Republican Party just 18% of those in GOP camp consider her a divisive force, and only 26% of voters overall share in that opinion. On the negative side Rasmussen also concludes that just 21% of Americans have a very favorable opinion against 29% who hold a very negative view of Sarah Palin. These figures mirror the results of other national polls showing that in spite of her popularity Sarah’s standing with the public is troublesome for a presumptive Presidential candidate.

A recent CBS News poll finds that just 23% of adults hold a favorable view of the former Alaskan Governor against 38% who do not. Of equal concern these figures are virtually identical to the last CBS poll taken on Palin from early-July. Additionally just 24% of Americans claim they would like to see Sarah Palin run for President in three years and only 26% think she can be effective in office if elected.

Less harsh but still clearly mired in the negatives are the results from an ABC/Washington Post survey. In this poll 43% of adults view Sarah Palin favorably against 52% who hold a negative view. This is actually a slight rebound for Palin from their last poll in mid-July but a huge decline in her favorable numbers from the early-fall of 2008. 46% of poll responders claim they would at least consider voting "Palin for President" in 2012 but only 9% of that block suggests they would “definitely” vote for her against 53% who definitely would not. Furthermore Sarah is seen as being qualified for the position of President by just 38% of adults nationwide according to this ABC poll.

Still there are many reasons why Sarah Palin should be considering capable of making a successful run for the White House, or at least why she should not be counted out.

Nate Silver of www.fivethirtyeight.com gives a list of ten specific reasons (read his full comments here) to believe in Sarah's chances of success. Included are the following; Palin creates a level of enthusiasm among supporters that no other GOP hopeful currently has and this could be particularly helpful for her in the primaries. The likely prospects that the Republican Party will rebound in the 2010 midterms creates a more favorable political base for Palin than what currently exists. The other candidates are flawed according to Silver’s assessment of the current GOP field, and there is of course the chance that one or more of the top candidates might not run for President. Palin’s love/hate relationship with the media is good for ratings and circulation and at least in the primaries that same media will be rooting for her.

Palin has also created a rather defensive position that can work in her favor against other candidates. She is tough to campaign against and any slight or criticism that strays from the political realm will have her supporters rallying around her. Silver also contends that attempts by the Republican establishment to neuter her may backfire again playing into the victimization complex held by Palin and her faithful. The fact that there are virtually no moderates left in the Republican base probably works in Palin’s favor as well, as most voters that hold negatives views of her are either found in the Democratic Party, are political independents or make up the small percentage of liberal Republicans. The aforementioned either will not be eligible to vote in the Republican primaries or not number enough to keep her from competing in the early rounds.

The idea that parties tend to nominate more extreme candidates in elections against incumbents is good for Palin if true. It creates a healthy and visible difference between the candidate and who they would be running against from the incumbent party, in this case President Obama in all likelihood. The concept of striking differences and a battle for the soul of American politics (ex: Republican vs. Democrat, Conservative vs. Liberal, Outsider vs. Establishment, Democracy vs. Socialism, Woman vs. Man, etc) is a tasty proposition for a party with bruised confidence. That said the more radical candidates generally do not fair well in these match ups. Barry Goldwater, George McGovern, Walter Mondale all lost in landslide elections whereas the more status quo options for either party (Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton) were quite successful.

The splintered Republican base ultimately creates an opportunity for a candidate such as Sarah Palin where in other elections and eras she may not be perceived as a contender. That she gets the new media, and the new media gets her is an important consideration as Palin looks to “overcome what I expect will prove to be a relatively shoddy traditional infrastructure” Silver concludes.

PHOTO CREDIT: NEWSWEEK (FILE PHOTO)

Pollsters, the other big winners from Election Day 2008

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With a predictable lag in high profile polling just a couple of weeks past this year’s elections we have a chance to take a look back.

Back all the way to 2008 that is. Not an assessment of the Obama victory, the strong Democratic showing in down ticket races or a look ahead. Instead a peak at the individual polling organizations and their collective scorecard from last year’s Presidential election as we look ahead to 2010.

For those who dismiss the value and accuracy of good polling this also serves as a healthy reminder. The efforts of the majority of polling organizations are laudable considering the often difficult task at hand. In 2008 for intance then Senator Obama with 52.9% of the popular vote defeated John McCain’s total of 45.6% in the general election and by a margin of 7.3%. In the Electoral College President Obama’s margin was 365-173.

Now take a look at this list of major national surveys conducted in the days before the Presidential election last November. Posted below are the results, eighteen in total, from final polling on the question of who will become the nation’s next Commander In Chief. Taking the average from these eighteen worked out to a virtually perfect score. Barack Obama defeated John McCain by 7.3-percentage points in both the polling averages and the actual result from Election Day 2008. The list of individuals is ranked by furthest from the eventual total to most accurate.

2-points;

Battleground (Tarrance Group): Obama 50-48%

Notes: Two “Battleground” polls had different popular vote assessments, the Lake Research Partners ultimately winding up more accurate than the Tarrance Group. Not a single polling organization predicted a McCain victory last Election Day but at just a 2% spread the Battleground Tarrance Group noticeably underestimated President Obama’s eventual performance in 2008.

11-points;

Gallup: Obama 55-44%
Reuters/Zogby: Obama 54-43%

Notes: Interesting to see such well respected organizations as Gallup and Reuters/Zogby actually winding up near the bottom of our list of most accurate pollsters. Perhaps this sheds light on the difficulty of polling on any question large or small, state to state or nationally. Even with their overestimation of Obama’s success Gallup was still within four-percentage points of the actual result. Furthermore the Reuters/Zogby poll was particularly strong in their state by state Elecotral College predictions. Only three states did they have the result wrong; Flipping Florida and North Carolina from “blue” to “red” as well as Indiana which Senator McCain won by just a single percentage point.

5-points;

Battleground (Lake Research Partners): Obama 52-47%
Diageo/Hotline: Obama 50-45%

Notes: Drawing within the margin of error of most national polls final totals from Diageo/Hotline and our second of two Battleground contributors gets closer to the actual result. Diageo had a relatively high 5% of its poll responders claiming to either be undecided or voting for third-party/independent candidates heading into Election Day 2008. The Lake Research Partners made a strong showing figuring Obama’s total within a point of his actual result and overestimating McCain’s by less than a point and a half.

9-points;

Marist: Obama 52-43%
CBS News: Obama 51-42%
ABC/Washington Post: Obama 53-44%

Notes: The top result from the three final surveys above was just 1.2% from the actual result. The ABC/Washington Post poll deserves the most credit of the three figuring Obama’s popular vote total accurately and coming closest to predicting McCain’s. There is an interesting mix of large versus small pools of responders. All three use “likely voter” models but the ABC poll of 2,470 was far larger and likely more rigorous than the smallest conducted (CBS) of 714. The Marist survey also had a relatively small sample of just 804 likely voters yet in spite of being less than a third the size both CBS and Marist's eventual figures were virtually identical to ABC’s.

6-points;

Rasmussen Reports: Obama 52-46%
Pew Research: Obama 52-46%
FiveThirtyEight.com: Obama 52.8 - 46.7%

Notes: Three of the most reliable sources in the world of polling made strong showings in last year’s election all predicting a 52-46% Obama victory. It’s the Electoral College results from Rasmussen and 538 that are most interesting however. Nate Silver’s 538 website popular vote total of 52.8% for Barack Obama was nearly perfect to the 52.9% he captured on Election Day. Silver was a little generous to John McCain (46.7%) making for a margin of 6.1% while commenting that election frontrunners tend to under perform their polling numbers slightly. Silver also predicted a 342-196 Obama victory in the Electoral College, failing to accurately call only the two closest states of Indiana and Missouri for Obama and the narrowly decided Nebraska 2nd District in his favor. Rasmussen meanwhile was similarly accurate to the tune of 312-195 Obama lead heading into Election Day and 31-electoral votes from two states (Ohio, Missouri) polling dead-even. Ultimately Rasmussen failed to call Florida and the narrowly won North Carolina and Indiana for Obama while Ohio and Missouri split for Obama and McCain respectively.

8-points;

American Research Group: Obama 53-45%
NBC/Wall Street Journal: Obama 51-43%

Notes: Two other big winners from Election Night 2008 were ARG and NBC nailing the popular vote margin in favor of then Senator Obama by less than a single percentage point. ARG correctly predicted Obama’s popular vote total at 53% when rounded to the closest whole number and was just over a half a point off on Senator McCain’s final tally. The NBC/Wall Street Journal survey was a tad more conservative in their allocation of votes to either major candidate. The 51-43% Obama lead means that a fairly high 6% of poll responders claimed to be either undecided or were planning on casting their vote for another candidate. Still the nearly accurate margin of eight-points recorded by the NBC poll is laudable.

7-points;

IBD/TIPP: Obama 51.5 – 44.3%
Fox News: Obama 50-43%
Ipsos/McClatchy: 53-46%
CNN/Opinion Research: 53-46%
Democracy Corps: 51-44%

Notes: No fewer did five major pollsters featured in this article essentially nail the outcome of last year’s election. The weakest of the five albeit still rather impressive is Fox News whose 50-43% result left a high number of undecided voters or those uncommitted to either major party candidate. Democracy Corps a Democratic polling organization also scored big with an impressive assessment of the eventual outcome. The Gold medalists from that evening just over a year ago however have to be CNN, Ipsos/McClatchy and Investors Business Daily. Ipsos essentially nailed the correct popular vote margin 53-46% in spite of their modest sample size of just 760 likely voters. CNN was equally effective with an even smaller (714) pool of responders interviewed. CNN also tracked results state by state concluding with confidence that Barack Obama had a 291-157 lead in the Electoral College with 90-votes left undecided heading into Election Day. Lastly the IBD/TIPP poll wins a special award for being within one-tenth of a point to the actual result. Obama’s 7.2% lead in that poll was strikingly similar to his eventual 7.27% margin of victory.

Poll: Continued pessimism in Pennsylvania, New Jersey not optimistic about new Governor

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A recent Franklin & Marshall poll surveying Pennsylvanians on a number of topics finds continued pessimism in the state. Rasmussen Reports meanwhile shows that six in ten in New Jersey were casting votes against Governor Corzine in his defeat last week. Below are some of the key findings from each survey.

1) Record high number of Pennsylvanians think state is headed in wrong direction

The latest Franklin & Marshall poll indicates just 32% of Pennsylvanians believe that things in their home state are heading in the right direction overall. 60% feel the Keystone State is on the wrong track. Just 8% of families consider themselves to be better off now than a year ago with 36% saying they are worse off and 55% feeling about the same. One bright note is the level of optimism being shared looking ahead a year. Although 50% of state residents think their financial situation will remain roughly the same a year from now, many more (31%) think they will be better off than those who feel they will be worse off (14%) by late-2010.

2) The recessions continues in the eyes of most Pennsylvanians and less money is being spent

In spite of certain economic indicators that suggest the United States has crawled out of its recession Pennsylvanians do not agree. Just 3% think the recession is over now and an additional 6% think it will end before the close of 2009. 30% are confident it will end next year with a whopping 57% of those polled are of the opinion that economic recovery is still several years away. The level of spending by Keystone State residents reflects the opinion many have of a prolonged recession. Just 8% say they are spending more money now than a year ago against 54% who are saving more and 37% who suggest there is no difference in their buying habits.

3) Governor Rendell’s favorability rating rebounds slightly, Specter struggling, Casey dips

The heads of state in Pennsylvania are all mired in the negatives. Governor Rendell has experienced a small turnaround from two months ago when he was embroiled in the state’s ongoing budget crisis. His favorable to unfavorable ratings at that time were a record low 32-53%. Rendell has rebounded somewhat since and currently stands at a 37%-47% favorable margin. Senator Arlen Specter meanwhile has plummeted to a new low with 28% of Pennsylvanians now holding a favorable view against some 46% who view him negatively. Senator Bob Casey has taken a hit as well in recent months. In August he stood at a 41% favorable, 18% unfavorable with 41% of Pennsylvanians undecided or not familiar enough with the politician. Casey now sits at 32-21-47% margin.

4) President Obama’s favorability drops, Joe Sestak and pat Toomey remain largely unknown

President Obama’s favorability rating has dropped ten-points from the previous Franklin & Marshall poll from August. At the same time the number of those claiming to be uncertain of their feelings towards the President has increased eight-points. Currently Obama’s favorable to unfavorable rating stands at 45-39% with 16% of state residents either uncertain or not knowing. Current Congressman and 2010 Senate candidates Joe Sestak and Pat Toomey continue to fly under the radar meanwhile. 77% claim to be unfamiliar with Sestak, strangely a higher number than recorded in the last poll. Toomey goes essentially unrecognized by 64% of Pennsylvanians virtually holding steady from last month.

5) Specter’s lead over Sestak shrinks, narrowly out in front of Toomey

Still nearly a year to go but the Pennsylvania Senate saga continues with each ensuing poll. Arlen Specter continues to lead Congressman Joe Sestak by twelve in the state’s upcoming primary battle but his 30-18% margin is far less that the 37-11% lead recorded in August. 47% of Pennsylvania Democrats remain undecided, a number that is holding steady from recent polls. Specter also leads Republican challenger Pat Toomey by just two-points (33-31%) down from an eight-point lead in August. Toomey scores better against Sestak as well than in recent polling. His lead on the 7th District Congressman has grown to 28-20%, up from a more modest 26-22% advantage registered two and a half months ago.

6) Democrats and Republicans narrowly divided, state legislature heavily unpopular

Some questions being asked of Pennsylvanians in this poll indicates a narrow 37-34% lead for Democratic Party candidates in the state when the upcoming House elections are discussed. Keystone State residents are divided in their perceptions between what they feel about the state at large and how they feel about their own district. By a 44-30% margin a plurality would like to see their specific candidate in Harrisburg reelected next year. When asked about the state House of Representatives in general however just 24% would like to see “most” of the members reelected in the next election. The state legislate meanwhile is mired with terrible ratings. Just 15% feel the body is doing a good or excellent job against 78% who think they have performed only fair or poorly.

7) In New Jersey most voters see Christie’s success as a result of pessimism towards Corzine

60% of those from the Garden State say that most of Republican Chris Christie’s support in his victory for Governor came from votes cast by disenfranchised voters against Jon Corzine. Just 22% think that Christie won due to his popularity with the electorate and an additional 18% remain uncertain. These numbers are according to a just released survey from Rasmussen Reports. Broken down to specifics 45% of voters claim Christie was elected specifically as a rejection of Governor Corzine’s job performance. Another 27% suggest that the state’s economy was the main reason with an additional 16% claiming a desire for change was on the horizon.

8) Voters give Christie modest approval but have mixed feelings about the likelihood of his success as Governor

Chris Christie is viewed favorably by 49% of New Jersey voters, 47% hold an unfavorable opinion of the Governor elect. A similar number (49%) think the first order of business for Christie as Governor is to cut state taxes. Voters are not particularly optimistic of the new Governor’s chances of fulfilling campaign promises however. The Rasmussen survey indicates a large number (86%) of voters do not think Christie can deliver working with the Democratic-controlled state Senate and assembly. By a margin of 54-40% most in New Jersey also feel that Christie will not be able to improve the state’s economy. One positive area of expectations is the 51% who think Christie can effectively crack down on corruption as promised.

Photo Credit: Associted Press / Mel Evans

Poll: Is the Republican Party primed for a comeback in 2010?

Two recent polls from Rasmussen Reports and Gallup point to the strong possibility of a Republican comeback in the 2010 midterm elections.

The Rasmussen survey confirms a growing trend of voter preference for the Republican Party on a generic ballot for the Congressional elections held next November. Currently the GOP holds a 43-37% lead over the Democrats with a high number of unaffiliated voters (43-20%) favoring Republican candidates at this point. The Democratic Party has not led according to Rasmussen since holding a modest 41-39% advantage in late-June.

Whereas Rasmussen has shown a modest lead for the Republican Party over the past several months, Gallup’s survey showing a preference for the GOP is the first occurrence of that this year. Currently Republican candidates lead 48-44% on the hypothetical ballot. That is up from a two-point deficit last month and a 50-44% lead for the Democratic Party being tracked as recently as late-July.

While both parties get typically strong support from their constituents the major swing to the right has been with independent voters. 93% of Republicans favor a GOP candidate and 91% of Democrats prefer a member of their own party. The Republican Party now holds a considerable 52-30% lead amongst independents according to this latest Gallup poll however. This is a major change from polls taken in late-July that showed the Democrats holding on to a narrow 43-42% lead with independents.

The average approval rating of Congress taken from seven major national polls hovers at just 27%. The harshest verdict comes from Gallup who measures the House and Senate at just a 21% approval and 72% disapproval. A recent Associated Press-GFK survey shows somewhat more promising numbers (33-64%) but clearly those figures continue to be mired in the negatives.

Interestingly Democrats continue to show stronger approval ratings than their Republican counterparts despite these latest findings from Rasmussen and Gallup. The gap is not as wide as it has been in recent months however. According to one recent survey conducted by CNN/Opinion ResearchDemocratic approval ratings in Congress are at 38% with 59% disapproving. When asked the same question about the GOP adult responders approved 33% of the time against 66% who did not.

Another seemingly odd twist comes from Rasmussen, the same organization who has continuously measured a Republican advantage on their previously mentioned generic Congressional ballot since the end of the June. Rasmussen actually shows the margin of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats over Republican growing slightly. Currently the survey shows Democrats with a 5.9% membership edge nationally. That figure is up three-tenths of a point from September and a full point from as far back as July.

The success or failure of the Obama agenda will undoubtedly weigh heavily on the chances for many Democratic Congressman in vulnerable districts. History has not been kind to the party in control of the White House come time for the midterm elections. In only four instances has the party of the sitting President picked up seats in the House of Representatives during a midterm although it has happened twice in recent years.

The Republicans behind George W. Bush accomplished the rare feat bagging a net of eight seats in 2002 benefiting from redistricting after the 2000 census and the public approved "War on Terror". President Bill Clinton’s popularity balanced against the growing unpopularity of House Speaker New Gingrich allowed the Democrats to net an impressive five seats in 1998 bucking the trend of the infamous “six year itch”. The other two instances where gains were made came during the height of President Franklin Roosevelt’s “New Deal” in 1934 and in the middle of Republican Teddy Roosevelt’s popular first term in 1902 when an increase in the Electoral College added seats for both parties.

Gallup will not begin to model likely turnout until much closer to the 2010 elections, but given that Republicans usually have a turnout advantage, if normal turnout patterns prevail in the coming election, prospects for a good Democratic showing appear slim. Of course, the elections are still nearly 12 months away and conditions could shift back in the Democrats' favor over this time. -- Jeffrey M. Jones / Gallup.com

Poll: Twenty years later public reacts to the fall of the Berlin Wall

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Twenty years have passed since the wall came crumbling down.

As the world reflects on today’s anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall some recent polling suggests that two decades on the importance of the event has not faded from the minds of most Americans. Elsewhere around the world however opinions are mixed on the impact of the falling of the wall and the state of capitalist ideas largely responsible for the history-shaping event.

Rasmussen Reports indicates near universal acknowledgement of Americans towards the importance of the fall of the Berlin Wall twenty years ago. 70% of the public considers the tearing down of he wall and subsequent collapse of communism in Eastern Europe to be a “very” important event in world history. An additional 23% consider it at least somewhat important, with just one in twenty-five Americans of the opinion that the events in Germany two decades ago are not very important or not important at all.

More conservatives (78%) consider the fall of the Berlin Wall very important than liberals (59%), but both ends of the political spectrum consider the importance of the event by overwhelming numbers. Younger voters aged 18-29 are not surprisingly less likely to rate the fall of the wall as an important historical event than their elders. 84% of all adults meanwhile correctly identify President Ronald Reagan’s famous declaration “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall” issued in June of 1987. Current President Barack Obama meanwhile was given positive remarks by 55% of Americans for his highly publicized speech in Berlin during last year’s campaign.

Americans it seems are far more united than Germany and many other countries in their embrace for the events that brought down the Berlin Wall and then communism two decades ago.

A German newspaper the Daily Leipziger Volkszeitung recent polled over 1,000 of its country’s citizens and found that one in eight actually want to see the wall rebuilt. The survey also noted that nearly equal numbers of formerly East and West German citizens were of this opinion. The BBC also recently commissioned a poll through Globescan in an attempt to track worldwide views on the collapse of communism from that region. 29,000 people from 27 countries were gathered. The United States and once Soviet dominated Poland showed the highest numbers (both over 80%) of those considering the collapse of the Soviet Union to be a “mainly good thing”.

German citizens (79%) were also high in the percentage of their population considering the fall of the USSR to be a positive moment in world history. 76% in Great Britain and 74% in France agreed with that sentiment according to the BBC poll. Many other countries are less than thrilled looking back and a number of individuals claim a current lack of faith in their capitalist structured societies in the midst of the global economic downturn of recent years.

60% of Russian citizens consider it a bad day when the wall fell and communism was vanquished. Half of Ukrainians are in agreement as are nearly 70% of those in Egypt, the highest total of negative responses recorded from any country.

Focusing back on Germany a Forsa survey in conjuction with a leading German newspaper polled 2,000 residents of Berlin and surrounding areas of the city back in 2005. Their results showed even greater negativity amongst German citizens than the previously mentioned Leipziger Volkszeitungpoll. With the economic struggles of the formerly East Germany many of that country’s citizens had expressed a desire for a return of the infamous Berlin Wall. 24% of western Germans polled were in favor of bringing the wall back that stood for some 28-years and 12% of those residing in the eastern party of the country agreed.

Photo Credit: Associated Press / Marcus Schreiber

Poll: Huckabee & Romney remain GOP front-runners for 2012

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Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney continue to sit most favorably amongst a field of Republicans being considered for President in 2012.

Two and a half weeks ago a Rasmussen Reports survey as reported on here indicated that Republican preferences were highest for Huckabee (29%) and Romney (24%), followed in third place by Sarah Palin (18%). These figures are echoed in a recent poll released by Gallup/USA Today.

The first question was posed to Republicans only, asking them whether they would “seriously” consider supporting a field of six GOP hopefuls. Mike Huckabee again scored highest at 71% support from his own party against just 25% who would not support his campaign. Mitt Romney (65-31%) and Sarah Palin (65-33%) shared similar levels of support and opposition. Newt Gingrich is also a contender within the GOP ranks as 60% of Republicans would seriously considering voting for the former Speaker of the House against just 35% who would not. Rounding out the field are the lesser known Tim Pawlenty (32-48%) and Hanley Barbour (26-52%) who clearly need to work on their brand name appeal if they hope to compete with the four assumed frontrunners.

The good news for the top four potential candidates is the level of support they receive from their own party is fairly high. The bad news is no Republican candidate approaches 50% support from adults nationwide regardless of party.

Mike Huckabee again leads the field but the number of those who would seriously consider supporting the former Arkansas Governor’s campaign against those who would not is mired at 40% and 51% respectively. Mitt Romney’s appeal is similar with a 39-51% margin and Sarah Palin, who was shown to struggle heavily amongst Democratic voters, posts a less than desirable 33-63% split. Newt Gingrich (29-63%) has a hard time with Democrats and independents as well with the two lesser known candidates Pawlenty (18-60%) and Barbour (15-65%) struggling for support and recognition in these early stages.

Amongst their support from the opposition party Mitt Romney is the only Republican in this field of six who cracks 20% from Democrats who would seriously consider supporting his candidacy. As Gallup points out only around one in ten members from either party vote for an opposition candidate come election time. President Obama took just 9% of the Republican Party vote in 2008 and John McCain was supported by only 10% of Democrats. Lastly Gallup asks adults nationwide whether they think each of the candidates are qualified to be President. Again it’s Huckabee (50-36%) and Romney (49-39%) leading the field and the only two Republicans on the list who receive a positive margin of support. Long time politician Newt Gingrich is slightly in the negatives (44-46%), but it is Sarah Palin’s numbers that have to be viewed most alarming by her supporters. Less than a third (31%) of the electorate considers Palin qualified for the role of President against 62% who do not. Tim Pawlenty (25-51% and Haley Barbour (18-57%) again round out the field far behind the frontrunners.

An unscientific poll of 2,043 voters taken on this site last month found Mitt Romney (32%) to be the most preferred candidate to win the Republican nomination in 2012. He was followed by 19% support for Mike Huckabee, just 4% for Sarah Palin and a barely traceable 2% going to Newt Gingrich. The largest block (42%) however remains those who are either uncertain or support someone other than the top-four choices. With over two and a half years to go and numbers like these the GOP nomination is still clearly anyone’s game.

Photo credit: Associated Press / Manual Balce Ceneta

Election Night Review: What pollsters came out on top?

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A new Governor in New Jersey, McDonnell by a landslide in Virginia. Gay marriage shot down in Maine, an important Democratic Congressional win in GOP territory and surprisingly close race for Mayor in New York City.

These are just some of the notable results from last night, the first round of national elections since the innaguration of President Obama in January. There are of course no shortage of opinions on both the individual races and the potentially greater implications nationwide. By while the talking heads are left to their Monday Morning Quarter back routine on the results the pollsters were around well before Election Night last evening.

Following the polls can be fascinating just as it is informative. There is a high premium placed on the importance of polling and how it shapes both public opinion and our candidates’ message. Just as we scrutinize the candidates themselves so too it is worth taking a look at the performance of the pollsters. Keeping a running scorecard of the successes and failures from individual polling organizations is helpful. Who nailed it, who came close and who was way off the mark. The more accurate the poll to the eventual election result the more trusted the organization conducting the poll should be moving forward.

There were many notable races being watched nationally on top of the slew of typical local elections but not all benefited from significant national surveying. Below is a quick assessment of the results from four of Election Night races that were and who the big winners were in terms of polling.

New Jersey Governor: The Republican Party is celebrating the success of Chris Christie’s 49-45% victory over incumbent Governor Jon Corzine. While any number of polls showed a tight race up to the end few estimated the lack of impact third-party candidate Chris Daggett (5%) would have on the result. Mirroring the tightness of this race in terms of polling and the eventual result of the eleven major polling organizations surveying things in the past week just six (PPP, Survey USA, Quinnipiac, Rasmussen, Neighborhood Research, Daily Kos/R2000) correctly called the result for Christie.

Gold Medal: Rasmussen Reports (Christie 46%, Corzine 43%, Daggett 8%)

Silver Medal: Survey USA (Christie 45%, Corzine 42%, Daggett 10%)

Bronze Medal: Quinnipiac University (Christie 42%, Corzine 40%, Daggett 12%)

Golden “Razzie” Award: Suffolk University (Christie 33%, Corzine 42%, Daggett 7%)

Virginia Governor: Republican Bob McDonnell whipped Creigh Deeds in the other high-profile Governor’s race last night. Most media outlets are treating this as an as expected result but the margin won by McDonnell (18%) is rather impressive. Democratic turnout was low with those who cast votes having voted for John McCain by a 51-43% margin in last year’s election in spite of the fact that Obama won Virginia easily. Nine major polls were taken within the last week running up to the election and not a single one of them had McDonnell winning by less than ten-points.

Gold Medal: Survey USA (McDonnell 58%, Deeds 40%)

Silver Medal: Virginia Commonwealth Univeristy (McDonnell 54%, Deeds 36%)

Bronze Medal: Roanoke College (McDonnell 53%, Deeds 36%)

Golden “Razzie” Award: Daily Kos/Research 2000 (McDonnell 54%, Deeds 44%)

New York-23rd: Democrat Bill Owens was one of the few shinning lights for his party last evening as the surprise winner in the special election for New York’s 23rd Congressional District. The 23rd district gave pollsters fits in the days heading up to the election as most did not poll on the race. The district is strongly Republican but in typical New York fashion moderately so having voted for Obama in the last Presidential election. The final tallies haven’t fully been recorded yet but it appears Owens won by around a 50-45% margin. The Democratic win serves as a symbolic victory in what was disappointing evening for the party overall and especially its liberal base.

Gold Medal: Daily Kos/Research 2000 (Owens 33%, Hoffman 32%, Scozzafava 21%)

Silver Medal: Siena (Owens 36%, Hoffman 41%, Scozzafava 6%)

Bronze Medal: CFG/Basswood (Owens 27%, Hoffman 31%, Scozzafava 20%)

Golden “Razzie” Award: Public Policy Polling (Owens 34%, Hoffman 51%, Scozzafava 13%)

New York City Mayor: An as expected result belied by the shocking closeness of the race. Michael Bloomberg wins a third-term as Mayor of New York but does so with just a five-point victory over Democrat Bill Thompson. From exit polling it is clear that many New Yorkers chose to vote against Mayor Bloomberg for his overturning of city term limits that allowed him to run again in the first place. Bloomberg has to be counting his blessings today but needs to work hard to improve a suddenly questionable brand name. Precious few polls foresaw the tight race in America’s largest city.

Gold Medal: Survey USA (Bloomberg 53%, Thompson 42%)

Silver Medal: Quinnipiac (Bloomberg 50%, Thompson 38%)

Bronze Medal: Marist (Bloomberg 53%, Thompson 38%)

Golden “Razzie” Award: NONE

Honorary Medal: Daily Kos/Research-2000

Turnout in Maine on the issue of gay marriage was extremely high with an estimated half million residents casting votes. Barring any major discrepancies it appears that “Yes” votes on Question 1 overturning gay marriage won by a narrow 52-48% margin. There was little in-state polling on the topic but credit should awarded to Daily Kos/Research-2000. In a poll from as far back as mid-September Kos estimated that there was narrow support (48-46%) for overturning the law allowing same-sex couple to marry. If a simple majority of the remaining undecideds split in favor of the “Yes” vote the survey would have essentially nailed the 52-48% result from last night.

Overall we see a mixed bag of success from pollsters in the four races. It’s worth noting that although this article only highlights those who were most accurate or way off the mark most pollsters fell somewhere in middle of acceptable surveying of the races. Perhaps Survey USA who was good on the hotly contested New Jersey Governor’s race, essentially nailed it in Virginia and was the closest to being accurate in the surprisingly tight battle for New York City Mayor deserves recognition as the winner of the evening.