Poll: Toomey takes big lead in new survey, but how revealing is the data?

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Franklin & Marshall College recently conducted their first survey in three months. There were a number of interesting findings from the 1,165 Pennsylvanian adults sampled. Most notably the poll offers up some sobering news for President Obama and some downright bad news for two Democrats seeking to capture or retain a Senate seat this fall.

The major headlines will likely center around Franklin & Marshall’s polling of the Senate race that now shows Republican Pat Toomey leading Arlen Specter by fourteen-points among “likely” voters and Congressman Joe Sestak by a whopping twenty-two. Toomey’s lead among “registered” voters meanwhile is non-existent versus Specter and he holds a more modest 12% advantage over Sestak. Using either tracking method there are a large number of Pennsylvania voters claiming to be undecided, not particularly surprising considering the unique dynamics of a race involving a veteran party switch and heated primary battle. But which is a better source of polling; likely voters or registered voters?

Noted survey analyzer Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com chimes in on the discussion that shows a 30-30% dead heat between Toomey and Specter in one model and decisive lead of 45-31% for the Republican challenger in the other. Silver suggests that likely voter samples are a better source of polling but only as Election Day draws nearer. Some analysis will find value in combining the results of both. In this case Toomey’s lead would be represented as around seven-percentage points over Arlen Specter and around 17% over Joe Sestak. Silver’s policy however is to lean towards using registered voter models up through Labor Day and then switching to likely voter tracking for the stretch run.

Franklin & Marshall typically does a terrific job and offers up a wealth of information on the state of affairs in Pennsylvania. That said, in this case their polling of only 395-likely voters among the 993-sample of registered voters alludes to a turnout of only around 40% for the state. In reality midterm elections generally see a registered voter turnout of around 65-70% and in the instance of Pennsylvania’s high profile Senate race for 2010 that number could easily exceed three-quarters of the voting population.

Furthermore a curiously high number of poll responders claim to either be or lean Republican. 46% of poll responders are registered Democrat, 43% Republican and nine-percent independent. The breakdown from the Franklin & Marshall survey also shows 45% leaning Republican, 44% Democrat and nine-percent described as pure independents. The Pennsylvania Department of State’s official breakdown of voter registration however shows a Democratic edge of 51-37-12% over Republican’s and other/independents.

Does this mean current social conditions that seem to be favoring Republican candidates are rapidly gripping Pennsylvania as well? Or does it simply mean that Republican’s are unintentionally over-sampled by this Franklin & Marshall survey? Silver ultimately claims the low likely voter sample to be more a calculation of “highly enthusiastic” voters than those who are likely to show up at the polls in general come November. In a Democracy of course a highly engaged vote for Toomey is offset by a lethargic vote for Specter or Sestak. Still it seems clear that Republicans are winning the enthusiasm battle at this point.

Elsewhere the Franklin & Marshall survey finds Dan Onorato and Tom Corbett as the leading candidates from a field of Democrats and Republicans vying for their party’s nomination for Governor. In both instances there is an exceedingly high number, over 70%, of undecided voters in either party.

By a margin of 53-39% most Pennsylvania voters feel their state if heading in the wrong direction. That is an improvement however from recent polls and represents the highest level of confidence since June of last year. 50% also claim their family is an about the same financial shape as they were this time last year, but four times as many (40%) claim they are worse off than better (10%). Optimism is stronger when looking ahead. Although not polling as high as in recent months more Pennsylvanians (27%) are confident they’ll be better off a year from now than worse off (17%).

Governor Rendell’s favorability rating has risen to 42%. While that’s still below the 45% who view him unfavorably it does mark an improvement from recent months. His personal best came in October of 2006 when voters had a favorable opinion of the Governor by a 54-30% margin helping pave the way to a landslide victory for reelection the next month. Also rebounding some is Senator Specter (35%) who ties his highest level of favorability since last March. At a 32-20% favorable to unfavorable margin Bob Casey Jr., not up for reelection until 2012, holds steady from the last Franklin & Marshall survey. President Obama meanwhile continues to struggle. For the first time in his Presidency the number of Pennsylvania voters viewing Obama unfavorably (44%) matches his favorable percentage (44%). Furthermore just 38% give Obama good or excellent marks for handling his job as President, 32% a fair grade and 29% feel he is doing a poor job in office.

Polling on other topics the survey indicates healthcare (29%) and the economy (24%) as the two major concerns for Pennsylvanians in deciding their vote for Senate this fall. Just sixteen-percent think the PA state legislature is doing a good or excellent job and 78% think Pennsylvania state government needs reform with nine in ten voters (91%) feeling somewhat or very strongly about the issue.

Nineteen-percent of Pennsylvanians describe themselves as liberal, 30% moderate and 42% conservative. The number of liberals has held relatively steady through the decade ranging from a high of 22% to a low of 15%. The current percentage is similar to the 18.5% average measured over the past ten-years. Moderates have shown considerable decline over the past year meanwhile whereas self-described conservatives are appearing at record levels in recent months. The average number of moderates and conservatives over the past decade is 40.5% and 35.25% respectively. Currently at 30% however moderate Pennsylvanians number an all-time low and down from a high of 52% measured in September of 2004. Conservatives meanwhile set a record in August of last year (43%) and their 40.25% average from the past seven months is noticeably higher than the 35.25% in the last decade overall.

Lastly on the topic of abortion and religion 73% of Pennsylvanians believe abortion should be legal. This includes 50% who think it ought to be legal under certain circumstances and 23% who would prefer to see it legal under any circumstance. That’s a slightly lower total than the average taken from the past decade but still more than three-times the percentage (24%) of those who currently feel abortion should be illegal in all circumstances. 81% of Keystone State voters believe in the Bible in meanwhile – a figure that is right in line with averages taken from the past five and a half years of polling.


PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Pablo Martinez Monsivais

Poll: State of the Union rarely has meaningful effect on Presidential support

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President Obama will address the nation tonight in his first State of the Union speech. Many political observers have suggested it critical that the President deliver a populist message of broad themes to reverse what has been at best a shaky past several months of legislation.

According to a recent Gallup analysis however history suggests the White House should not expect much of a post-speech bounce in the polls from the Commander in Chief’s address. In fact there have been more instances of a net loss in approval ratings than substantive gains for Presidents.

Tracking the pre and post-address job approval of each President since Jimmy Carter Gallup finds a mixed bag. Of the 27-speeches given since Carter’s first State of the Union in 1978 a total of fourteen have indicated a modest decline in a Presidents approval, three times there has been no loss or gain and just ten times a bump in popularity has been found. Overall Carter, Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush all lost an average of one-percentage point after their national addresses and George H.W. Bush lost an average of four points. Only Bill Clinton, noted for skillful oratory, typically saw a bounce (3%) in his job approval following the State of the Union.

Even Clinton’s success after giving the big speech each year was decidedly uneven. The first Gallup polls taken after his State of the Union address in February of 1997 showed a decline of three-percentage points in his popularity. He also lost a point after his final speech in January of 2000 and remained unfazed as a virtual lame duck President a year earlier in 1999. Clinton’s greatest success came in 1998. Already polling strong at 59% the President offered up a strongly positive message that January touting a balanced federal budget and an economy at record strength. He made an impressive ten-point jump to 69% in the subsequent poll taken days after his address.

Clinton’s 1996 speech that unofficially kicked off his reelection campaign was also well received. Earning him a six-point bounce from a struggling 46% to a positive 52% approval the President rode his newfound popularity to an easy win in the fall. Other President’s have been less fortunate however.

Jimmy Carter dipped by three-points from 55% to 52% after his first State of the Union address in 1978. Embroiled in political controversies in 1987 President Reagan’s speech that year lost him five-points and dropped his approval rating down to 43%. Reagan also lost some clout two years earlier. Fresh off a landslide victory for reelection that previous November the “Great Communicator” never the less dipped by four-points from 64% to 60% post-speech. George H.W. Bush lost seven-points in early-1990 down from a lofty 80%. However two Gallup polls taken at that time were spread out by well over a month and perhaps included other factors helping to explain the sudden drop.

The State of the Union was both a blessing and a curse for George W. Bush depending on the year of the speech. His strongest performance came in 2005 after a reelection victory in the fall and the foreign policy success of the Iraqi elections taking place that January. Bush gained six-points pushing his approval rating up to 57%. Only modest gains or drops were experienced after addresses to the nation in 2002, ’03, ’06 and ’08. In two instances however Bush lost notable clout amongst voters. His 2004 speech not only contributed to a four-point drop but sent his approval ratings under the majority level (49%). Similarly in 2007 Bush went from bad (36%), to worse (32%) almost immediately after the State of the Union.

Although this will be his first State of the Union President Obama has already addressed Congress twice in joint sessions. In late-February of this year Obama rebounded from his first approval ratings dip to score an impressive eight-point bounce up to 67% following a speech focusing on his economic agenda. The memorable “You lie!” shout from Congressman Joe Wilson highlighted what was a modest two-point bump, up to 53%, for Obama in a September address focusing on his healthcare proposals.

How much does President Obama have riding on this address, and how much positive impact will delivering an effective speech mean to his fortunes in the long run? Like Clinton the current President is known for executing rousing speeches, but will he simply be preaching to the choir? Gallup suggests that part of the reason success after the State of the Union tends to be fairly muted is because the audience is made up mostly of supporters. Recent history shows that only during Bill Clinton’s 1995 address were there a virtually even number of Democratic, Republican and independent viewers. On the other hand as recently as 2005 the divisive Presidency of George W. Bush was underscored by over twice as many Republicans (52%) as Democrats (25%) and independents (22%) watching the speech.

For the record Clinton moved from a 47% to 49% approval rating in the days after his 1995 State of the Union address and Bush improved by six-points to 57% benefiting from all of the Republican support ten-years later. President Obama’s scorecard meanwhile remains to be seen. But while his sluggish approval ratings, topping out at around 50% in recent weeks, do not exactly spell disaster an unusually large post-speech bounce for Obama would seem particularly important this go-round.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Charles Dharapak

Add to favorites Examiner Bio Poll: As newspaper circulation dwindles most won't pay to read online

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Charging for online subscriptions probably won’t improve the struggling fortunes for the newspaper industry.

According to a recent Harris survey sampling 2,136 adults online late last year 77% said they would refuse to pay anything for access to a newspaper’s stories on the web. Less than two in ten (19%) would be willing to pay between $1 and $10 a month in readership fees with less than five-percent willing to pay more than $10 per-month for the online service. Those living in the western United States (29%) were most likely to pay for newspaper stories online. In the East that total is just 19%.

Struggling to convince their readers to subscribe online for a fee is a reflection of an overall drop in readership since the early 1980s. The Newspaper Association of America website tracks several figures including newspapers in print and average circulation since 1940. That year there were a record total of 1,878 newspapers in operation. With the U.S. population at little over 130-million the ratio was around one paper for every 70,000 citizens. Furthermore daily circulation totals averaged 41,132. While that’s low even by today’s standards it does indicate that nearly 60% of the population purchased and read newspapers on a daily basis in 1940.

The peak year for circulation came in 1984 when an average of 63,340 Americans purchased newspapers daily. With the population of the United States at around 235-million, or around 24% smaller than today, over 45% of Americans bought papers each day. As of 2008 however newspapers in publication (1,408) had reached their lowest level on record. The average circulation of 48,597 represents the first time newspapers have dropped below the 50,000 mark since 1945. Just over 22% of the total public now pays for their daily news in print (including less than half of adults), half of what it was a quarter-century ago and nearly one-third of its peak total in the early-40s.

In an interesting albeit inevitable twist most newspaper publications have now been forced to court the internet – the same information medium that was the biggest factor in the industry’s decline – in an attempt to generate greater profits and reach more readers. Losing readership is the greatest threat to the life of any newspaper, but concern over the costs to print continues to increase while advertising revenue shrinks. Circulation expenditures reached over $10 billion for the first time in 1997 and have not come close to falling back under that total in the ensuing years.

Back to the Harris survey, just 43% of those surveyed say they read the newspaper each day in either its print or online format. Ten-percent claim they never read a newspaper meanwhile, 72% say they do so once a week and 81% once per-month. Setting a dangerous precedent for the future of the industry fewer people read the newspaper by descending age group. Not surprisingly elders 55+ are the most loyal group of readers with 64% claiming to flip through their paper almost every day. That percentage drops to 44% in the 45-54 year old age group, 36% in the 35-44 age grouping and 23% amongst younger adults aged 18-34.

If the newspaper industry wants to survive collectively in the coming decades it will likely need to convince many young readers to begin picking up their paper more often as they grow older. Charging for online subscriptions or to view individual articles appears to be a difficult undertaking at this point in time. Meanwhile newspapers continue the laborious dig for dollars and advertisers faced with a struggling economy and dwindling readership.

Poll: Toomey widens lead over Democratic challengers, Specter well ahead of Sestak

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On the same day Philadelphia businessman Tom Knox drops out of the race for Pennsylvania Governor Pat Toomey expands his lead on two other Democratic hopefuls for high office.

In the race for Senate Republican Toomey has increased his lead from four points over Arlen Specter and six over Congressman Joe Sestak to advantages of nine and eight points respectively. The survey from Rasmussen Reports also indicates that prior to switching parties earlier last year Senator Specter was trailing by over twenty-points to Toomey. The political environment has continued to sour for Democrats in the months since and the party is currently reeling from a damaging special-election Senate defeat in Massachusetts on Tuesday.

Specter’s troubles are more with his tarnished reputation outside his current party than with Democrats. Just 16% view him favorably against a third of the Pennsylvania electorate (33%) who hold an unfavorable view. Joe Sestak who is currently running a point better against the Republican challenger than Specter is running far behind the veteran Senator in their primary battle, 53-32%. Sestak also has failed to obtain strong levels of support or recognition amongst voters. His very favorable numbers top out at eight-percent against eleven-percent who view him very unfavorably in the Keystone State, meaning four in five voters have either lukewarm feelings or still do not know enough about the Seventh District Congressman.

Toomey meanwhile also struggles from strong name recognition but does attract slightly more favorable support (12%) than unfavorable (10%). Larry J. Sabato’s is a contributor to Rasmussen. His famous “Chrystal Ball” that almost perfectly predicted the 2006 midterms election in the both the House and Senate places the race in Pennsylvania in the toss-up category. He does suggest however that the advantage leans toward Toomey. In fact if the midterm elections were held today the Democrat’s majority in the U.S. Senate would drop to 52-seats according to Sabato’s polling.

Another notable pollster, Nate Silver from Fivethirtyeight.com proposes a slightly rosier outlook for Democrats in November as he gives the party in power a good chance of securing at least 53 or 54 Senate seats. In Pennsylvania however his current assessment shows the Senate seat leaning toward Pat Toomey and gives the Republican a 72% chance of victory. In total of the 36 races statistically analyzed by Silver at Fivethirtyeight twenty-four show Republicans with a lead of at least three-percentage points to just eleven where the Democrats are out in front – polls show Illinois deadlocked.

Back to Pennsylvania politics, 57% oppose the healthcare reform bill now in peril and better than two-thirds (67%) are concerned over the possibility of another terrorist attack this year. Like most of the country Pennsylvanians are down on the economy and pessimistic about its rebound in the near future. Just five-percent rate it as good or excellent against 51% who say it is poor. Furthermore 31% think it's getting better but 42% claim it is getting worse.

Tom Knox stepping out of the race for Governor and offering up his support to rival Dan Onorato was perhaps equal parts a desperate and selfless act. With the three other candidates in the Democratic primary quickly dismissing the idea of doing the same, the dichotomy helps sum up the current political landscape for Democrats; United on certain fronts, fractured in others and heading into an autumn election season with plenty of unease and uncertainty.

AP PHOTO: ASSOCIATED PRESS / MATT ROURKE

Analysis: Taking a deeper look into Scott Brown's stunning victory in Massachusetts

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With the reports of yet another devastating earthquake in Haiti this morning retaining the broader focus and concern the home front was rocked last evening in a different sort of way.

Scott Brown’s defeat of Martha Coakley in a Massachusetts special election to fill the vacant seat of Ted Kennedy shows up on the political Richter scale. With polls showing a safe lead in one of the most reliably Democratic states little more than a month ago Coakey’s defeat comes as shocking and sobering news to an admittedly reeling Democratic Party. On the flip side the Scott Brown victory is being touted in Republican circles as conclusive evidence of an electorate rejecting current healthcare reform and many of President Obama’s economic policies.

The finger pointing and debating over the significance of this outcome is already underway. How much of it can be attributed to merely the special circumstances of this particular race, a rejection of a Martha Coakely, the infatuation with Scott Brown as an “independent” Republican voice or long-term political trends remains to be seen. For now lets take a deeper look inside exit are pre-election polling to see how this outcome was achieved and which polling organizations were on top of the rapidly changing race.

While not every vote had been counted as of late last night the Brown victory appears to be in the neighborhood of 52-47%. Rasmussen Reports was one of the few organizations to provide sufficient exit polling on the race. Their data as they suggests depicts a “complex picture” but below are some of the more revealing figures.

1) Health care (56%) was biggest single issue with Massachusetts voters. To the surprise of many onlookers Martha Coakley actually outperformed her opponent in this block 53-46%. Perhaps a surge of Massachusetts Democrats hopeful of retaining the seat for their party and assisting in the passage of the healthcare reform bill produced the result.
2) 25% of voters listed the economy as their top concern. Scott Brown took home a narrow 52-47% victory in this category mirroring that of his overall performance.
3) Only two other issues described as most important to Massachusetts voters, national security and taxes, accounted for over 5% of the total. Here is where Scott Brown dominated and ultimately won the race. Brown defeated Coakley by a decisive 67-29% margin on security and thumped the Democrat 87-13% on the issue of taxes.
4) President Obama continues to be strongly approved of by majorities in Massachusetts. The correlation between how voters chose their candidates in response to their level of support for the President points to an election that is perhaps less of a referendum on Obama’s job performance than previously believed. Those in the Bay State who strongly approve of the President voted for Coakley 96-3%. Conversely those who strongly disapprove of his job performance went for Brown almost universally, 97-2%. Brown was similarly supported (95%) by those voters who only “somewhat” disapprove of Obama but Coakley (69%) was nowhere near as popular with the group who somewhat approves of the President.
5) Did the Governor hurt Coakley’s chances of victory in Massachusetts? There was also a gap created by those who both support President Obama but disapprove of Democratic Governor Deval Patrick. Accounting for 15% of the electorate Scott Brown took home a huge 93% of that grouping.

One survey that continues to be referred to comes from Suffolk University who as recently as early-November showed Democrat Martha Coakley leading Scott Brown by 31-points. Just over two-months later that same polling firm indicated an incredible reversal of fortune for Republicans and a Brown lead of four-percent. Droves of pollsters chimed in on the race in recent weeks. Below are some of the big the winners and losers from last evening in the business of election surveying.

Gold Medal: Public Policy Polling (51-46%)

PPP again shows us the value of large polling samples. Gathering information from 1,231 likely voters, the largest of any poll, PPP nailed the eventual victory for Scott Brown of five-percentage points and their 51-46% margin was remarkably close to the actual result.

Silver Medal: Suffolk University (50-46%)

The polling firm who brought us the first information on the Massachusetts Senate race also wound up being one of the most reliable. Suffolk came within a point of accurately predicting the 52-47% race. Polling likely voters down the stretch instead of registered voters from two months ago Scott Brown’s incredible turnaround from a 31-point underdog to a five-point winner may have been less dramatic than it appears.

Bronze Medal: American Research Group (52-45%)

Although sampling less than half of what went into the Public Policy Polling survey ARG did a similarly excellent job gathering results down the stretch of this abbreviated campaign. One recent survey released on January 14th pitted Scott Brown’s lead at three-points. Three days later another ARG poll had Brown up by seven, meaning the average of the two would have accurately predicted the five-point margin.

Other Notables: Fivethirtyeight.com (50-48%), Politico/Insider Advantage (52-43%), PJM/Cross Target (52-42%) Inside Medford/Merriman River Group (51-41%), Daily KOS/Research 2000 (48-48%), Rasmussen Reports (47-49%)

Nate Silver’s Fivethirtyeight.com website does not conduct polling on their own but rather weighs the results of other polling firms through a combination of timeliness, sample size, previous accuracy and other factors. Three other surveys all showed a safe victory for Republican Scott Brown of nine or ten-percentage points. Daily KOS/Research 2000 meanwhile depicted the race as a dead-heat heading into Election Day. Rasmussen Reports gets left off our “biggest loser” list (see below) for three reasons. First off, as stated above they’ve provided the public with helpful exit polling whereas virtually all other polling firms ignored that particular chore. Secondly they were the first major pollster to show Scott Brown within single-digits of Martha Coakley on Janurary 4th. Lastly they reported on some technical difficulties with their website over the past week which could have kept the January 11th poll showing a narrow 49-47% for Coakley as their most recent.

Biggest Losers: Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire (36-53%), Blue Mass Group (41-49%)

The Blue Mass Group in affiliation with Research 2000 touted their poll as being more insightful than “robo-pollsters” like Rasmussen and PPP by way of a supposedly more efficient live interviewing process. The survey was paid for by the Political Action Committee (PAC), a reputable organization who none the less receives a majority of its donations from solidly Democratic groups. Their results showing a likely victory for Martha Coakley by 49-41% leaves much to be desired. It was not a good week at the polling end of the Boston Globe meanwhile. Not only was their website apparently hacked, reporting on a Coakley victory plush with statistical voter breakdowns hours before polls even closed on Election Day, their big win for the Democratic candidate never came close to materializing. Working off of a University of New Hampshire survey the Globe seemed fairly confident of a big Coakley victory. Her lead of seventeen-points was a whopping twenty-two off the actual result.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Elise Amendola

Poll: New Jersey wants medical marijuana, supports body-scanners at airports

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Nearly two-thirds of New Jersey voters support medical marijuana legislation. Over three-quarters meanwhile favor the use of full-body scanners at their airports. This information on the Garden State comes compliments of recent polling over the weekend from Rasmussen Reports.

64% support last week’s decision by the New Jersey state legislature to legalize marijuana for medical usage. Only 23% are opposed to the idea and 13% remain undecided. New Jersey has become the fourteenth state to decriminalize pot for medical purposes, legislation that is supported by 63% of voters nationwide. Certain states like California have taken the next step in considering whether the drug ought to be legal and taxed for budget reasons. Nearly half of Californians (49%) support the measure against 38% who are opposed. There is greater resistance to proposed legalization of marijuana to help with national economic problems however. 41% are in favor but 49% remain against the measure nationwide.

In Northern Jersey Newark Liberty International is set to become the first airport in the United States to implement full-body scanners that will check each passenger in its terminals. This is in response to the growing concern over airline terror and specifically recent incidents on Christmas Day and January 3rd. 77% in the Garden State are in favor of the use of scanners against just nine-percent opposed and 14% who are undecided.

New Jersey’s high level of support actually exceeds the 71% national average being recorded by Rasmussen. Although the body-scanners have raised some privacy issues mainly supported by liberal-leaning groups, and New Jersey is a left-leaning state, their concern with protection outweighs their sensitivity over privacy. New Jersey’s connection with the 9/11 terror attacks in neighboring New York City where many state residents have lived and work no doubt plays a role in the public sentiment. Furthermore more than half of Americans (55%) nationwide say they are not concerned about privacy issues raised by the implementation of airport body-scanners.

By a margin of 39-32% a plurality of New Jersey voters believe the government’s response to the foiled terror attack on Christmas Day was poor. Seven in ten (70%) Garden State voters also want to see the investigation of the bombing attempt handled by military authorities and treated as a terrorist act. Only two in ten (20%) prefer to see Nigerian Muslim Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab tried for a criminal act in a civilian court.

Despite their desire for body-scanners in airports New Jersey voters are a bit more optimistic on the topic of terrorism in general than what is found nationally. 72% believe another terrorist attack on or over United States soil is at least somewhat likely within the next twelve months, but that is a bit lower than the national average of 79%. By a margin of 43-40% more voters in New Jersey believe the country to be less safe than safer since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. This is well above the national average of 47-27% however.

AP PHOTO: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Ed Andrieski

Poll: Haiti’s recent tragedy and devastation underscores longstanding vulnerabilities

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The impoverished nation of Haiti has recently reentered the news cycle and rarely is that followed by something positive. If it wasn’t enough that Haiti was already the poorest country in the western hemisphere Wednesday’s earthquake that rocked the capital of Port Au Prince has devastated infrastructure, taken the lives of thousands of citizens and left many more stranded without food or shelter.

No stranger to nature’s catastrophes Haiti endures periodic and often massively destructive hurricanes, but this recent earthquake tops them all in terms of devastation.

Citizens of the United States, amongst those of other countries, are proving sensitive once again to the needs of a people in peril. Donations have been pouring in but getting aid to the wounded and stranded has been a difficult task. Some polling meanwhile compliments of Gallup sheds light on the general vulnerabilities of Haitian citizens and how a tragedy such as this paralyzes a country already battered and frail.

In the past year when asked the question if there have been times when you did not have enough money to buy food for your family or provide adequate shelter 60% and 51% of Haitians responded a disturbing “yes”. By contrast island neighbors in the Dominican Republic claimed yes to those questions 55% and 22% of the time respectively. The average taken from all Caribbean and Central American nations through polling stretching across 2008 and 2009 was just 33% and 20%.

Haitians are also desperately lacking in widespread access to quality health care. In a densely populated country of over ten million citizens living in an area just slightly larger than the state of Massachusetts only 22% claim satisfaction with the availability of quality health care in their local area. Half of that (11%) believe healthcare to be accessible to anyone regardless of their economic situation, making the uproar over the healthcare debate in the United States seem fairly tame by comparison. More than half (52%) in the neighboring Dominican are both satisfied with their personal access and believe healthcare to be readily available to all citizens. The regional average meanwhile was 60% and 62% respectively.

Poor infrastructure across the country of the Haiti has been highlighted as family members and rescuers literally continue to dig for survivors. A collapsing hospital was one of the first confirmed reports of the massive devastation and while earth quakes measuring 7.0 on the Richter scale can destroy even solidly constructed civilizations it seems Haiti’s shoddy infrastructure is a contributing factor to the toll of victims. Haitian views on their important facilities including roads and schools were lacking in terms of both safety and quality long before the recent earthquake. Just 31% were satisfied with the roads and highways that tied their country together and only 35% claimed satisfaction with schools and educational systems in the area they live. The median average for all Caribbean and Central American nations was again a far higher 52% and 71% respectively.

Lastly Gallup analyzed social support throughout Haiti and the rest of the region.

In the wake of a disaster, friendships and family ties become lifelines, serving
as conduits for material as well as emotional support. Social support is
generally strong among Latin American societies, which tend to emphasize the
importance of extended family relations…However even here Haitians are less
well-equipped than residents of any other country in Central America and the
Caribbean. – Gallup.com / Steve Crabtree

Strong family ties throughout the region are reflected even in Haiti with 64% of residents claiming to have friends and relatives they can count on in times of trouble and need. Still that percentage is far lower than what has been recorded in the Dominican Republic (87%) and the region as a whole (84%).

After years of exploitation the Haitian Revolution of 1793 while bringing independence to the island nation never allowed it to truly break free of foreign occupation and dependency. The United States, once and occupier themselves, remains the country’s largest trade destination and official American aid to Haiti has been significant if sporadic through the years. As a special envoy to Haiti former President Bill Clinton emphasized the need for increased foreign aid to the nation just last year. It will be interesting to see what path President Obama chooses to take on dealing with Haiti’s struggles in the long term as his own country continues to suffer through a prolonged economic recession. The more immediate concern is saving lives and assisting a country crippled once again by the latest in a series of devastating natural, social and political events.

AP PHOTO: ASSOCIATED PRESS / GERALD HERBERT

Poll: Obama begins 2010 with an even number approving and disapproving of his job performance

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Quinnipiac’s first national poll of 2010 was released today. Serving as something of a report card for the 111^th Congress and President Obama’s first year in office below are some of the key findings.

1) President Obama enters 2010 with voters evenly split on his job performance.

Suffering another small drop in recent polling Barack Obama ends his first year with a 45-45% approval to disapproval rating among registered voters polled by Quinnipiac. Two previous polls showed the President at 46% and his positives running slightly ahead of negatives. Back in June his approval rating was 59% with just 31% disapproving. The President is backed by 81% of Democrats and just 16% of Republicans. Those numbers are fairly consistent according to polling in recent months but his declining popularity with independents (42-48%) is enough to drag down his overall figures.

2) Democrats in Congress hold steady with low approval from voters.

Although their decline in numbers seems to have leveled off Democrats in control of Congress continue to receive poor ratings from voters on their job performance. Same as last month just 32% of voters approve and 59% disapprove of the way Democrats in Congress have been handling their jobs. Strikingly similar are ratings for the Republicans Party. Showing a slight increase in approval from December voters are split 32-58% on the performance of the minority party. Perhaps generating some momentum these current numbers are also an improvement from a 25-64% low the GOP received in early-October.

3) Fewer than three in ten Americans remain satisfied with current state of nation.

One of the more consistent polling categories in recent months has measured the satisfaction Americans have with the way things are going on their country overall. Although noticeably higher from all-time lows set in November of 2008 just 27% of Americans currently claim satisfaction. That includes just two-percent who are “very” satisfied against 44% who are very dissatisfied. Overall solid pluralities of Democrats (49%) remain satisfied with their party in power – 48% of self-described liberals agree with that sentiment. Just 15% of both Republicans and Conservatives meanwhile claim to be satisfied with the way things are going in America.

4) Obama’s handling of the economy slips back to early-December lows

After a small bounce in approval received just before Christmas President Obama has matched his worst approval ratings to date in his handling of the economy. By a 51-44% margin most Americans disapprove of the President’s efforts. While Democrats (77%) are generally supportive and Republicans (17%) mostly critical Obama’s overall numbers are dragged down by a poor 34-61% approval to disapproval margin he receives from the key block of independent voters. Those middle-aged 35-54 year olds are most critical of the President with just 35% approving of his handling of the economy. Moderates (47-46%) are almost evenly split.

5) Americans remain closely divided on Obama’s foreign policy

45% of Americans approve of President Obama’s handling of foreign policy – 46% disapprove. These totals closely mirror his ratings from December that showed a 46% approval, indicate a modest decline from his 49% rating in mid-November and do not point toward any sort of bump since the announcement of his military plans for Afghanistan. 72% of liberals approval of the President’s handling of the issue but just 21% of independents also approve. Moderates meanwhile supply Obama with a modest bump as they approve by a 55-37% margin.

6) Health care continues to be a drag on the President’s popularity

President Obama continues to struggle on the topic of health care as a majority of Americans disapprove of his handling of the issue. At present just 35% of Americans approve of Obama’s handling, that’s a three-percent drop from last month and down nine-percent fro early-July. 70% of Democrats still approve of the President’s handling of the issue but less than one in ten Republicans (9%) share in that sentiment. Furthermore independents who could prove to be the key group on health care is strongly against the President with more than twice as many (63%) disapproving than approving.

7) President Obama’s approval rating on other topics

As many people approve as disapprove of the President on the issue of Afghanistan 45-45%. On the topic of job creation recently unspectacular figures on unemployment have contributed to a slight drop on Obama’s figures that currently stand at just 34% with 58% disapproving. 48% of the public meanwhile approves of the President handling of terrorism even in the wake of growing threats. Overall an even number of the public considers Obama’s first year in office a success and failure, 45-45%. Slightly more believe the country to be better off now with Obama as President (37%) than if McCain had won the election in November of 2008. Furthermore when compared to his predecessor George W. Bush 43% believe Obama has done a better a job against 30% who believe he has been worse and 23% bout the same.

AP PHOTO: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Charles Dharapak

Poll: Nearly 7 in 10 Afgans support U.S. forces in their country

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President Obama’s troop surge has divided the American public, but in Afghanistan where those troops will be stationed a clear majority favor U.S. presence in their country.

Conducted between December 11-23rd of 1,534 randomly sampled Afghan adults the survey was a joint effort between ABC News, the BBC and the Afghan Center for Socio-Economic and Opinion Research (ACSOR) in Kabul.

Nearly seven in ten Afghans polled support U.S. forces in their country with 61% in favor of President Obama and NATO’s plan to deploy 37,000 additional troops. The overall level of support for U.S. involvement from Afghani citizens far exceeds the troop support in Iraq. In polls taken shortly before the American midterm elections in 2006 nearly two-thirds (65%) of Iraqi’s favored an immediate U.S. troop withdraw from their country.

Yet the support for American forces in Afghanistan is not felt evenly across all regions.

Support is lowest in the southern and eastern areas of the country bordering Pakistan where the fighting has been most intense. Just one in ten Afghans support the Taliban, but in the more rural southwest region that figure jumps to over a quarter (27%) of the local population. In certain areas like the southern Helmand province optimism remains scarce where the Taliban’s insurgency is strongest.

Never the less Afghan views seem to be shifting against the Taliban. 42% now blame the group for the violence in their country, up from just 15% who pointed the finger at the Taliban a year ago. Furthermore just 17% consider the violence a result of U.S. and NATO policies or interference down from more than half (53%) who felt that way last year.

After years of battered confidence Afghans are beginning to express greater optimism about the outlook of their country. Nearly seven in ten (69%) citizens believe Afghanistan is heading in the right direction. That’s up nearly thirty-percentage points from similar polling taken last January. 71% of Afghans also believe their lives will be better a year from now – up twenty-points in twelve-months. 61% meanwhile feel the next generation of Afghan adults will have a better life than they’ve had.

In domestic polling a mid-December survey from ABC News / Washington Post found that by a 52-44% margin most Americans approved of the way the President Obama was handling the situation in Afghanistan and considered the war worth fighting. 36% strongly supported the President’s plan to send 30,000 more troops into the country with 30% strongly opposed to his decision.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Dusan Vranic

Poll: Sports fans closely divided on winner of upcoming Eagles-Cowboys game

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As football fans prepare themselves for the four NFL playoff match ups this weekend here is some quick is quick, fun and thoroughly unscientific polling compliments of ESPN’s SportsNation program.

Fans throughout the country routinely cast their votes on a range of sports related topics each day. In addition to their recently premiered TV program humorously tracking and analyzing the opinions of sports fans nationwide, ESPN.com goes one-up on most other websites. Their criteria for the straw poll-style questions is similar but their colorful maps indicating where support for a particular response is coming from is rather unique. Each state is represented, the whole numbers of votes and selection percentages show. Answers are colored by responses allowing for a map that delivers an affect similar to Electoral College projections shown by publications come election time.

With the start of the NFL playoffs looming this weekend today’s big topic on ESPN is of course football. The four match ups are against the Eagles and Cowboys who will tangle in Big ‘D’ tomorrow night, the Bengals and Jets earlier in the afternoon. On Sunday fans can check out highly touted contests between the Patriots and Ravens in addition to the Packers and Cardinals. Here are some of the results according to “Sports Nation”.

Which team will win the NFC Wild Card game in Dallas?

Total Votes: 87,833 (11:15 AM, Friday)

Dallas Cowboys: 53%

Philadelphia Eagles: 47%

Notes: The narrowly favored Cowboys received a majority of votes in 32-states in addition to the 55% of the vote from nearly 6,100 residing outside of the United States. Not surprisingly 78% of the 9,165 voters from the Cowboys home state of Texas pick them to win – their highest level of support in the country. They break 60% in four other states as well; Arkansas (69%), Oklahoma (67%), South Dakota (65%) and Minnesota (64%). The Eagles meanwhile are the choice in fifteen states including the District of Columbia. Logically Philadelphia draws its highest level of support in Pennsylvania (68%) and neighboring states such as Delaware (60%) and New Jersey (56%). Saints fans who saw their team suffer their first defeat at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys four weeks ago are picking the Eagles by 57% in Louisiana. Wisconsin where the Packers could potentially host a home game versus Philly in the NFC Championship also like the Eagles 54% of the time. In both instances the level of preference for a particular team to win probably outweighs the unbiased pick of who will win. Four additional states; Alaska, Illinois, Michigan and Massachusetts are split about 50-50 between each opponent.

Which team will win the NFC Wild Card game in Arizona?

Total Votes: 36,860 (11:30 AM, Friday)

Green Bay Packers: 70%

Arizona Cardinals: 30%

Notes: Far less sports fans lent their opinion on the upcoming Packers-Cardinals game than the Eagles showdown in Dallas. Perhaps this contributes to a Packers landslide victory through ESPN polling as a result. Seven in ten fans chose Green Bay, one of the hottest teams in football to pull off the modest road upset against the defending NFC champion Cardinals in Arizona. Only the state of Arizona has confidence in the home team’s chances of victory this week as 74% of the current 1,662 pick the Cardinals. By comparison Wisconsin received a far higher number of votes (4,583) in spite of being a smaller populated state. Their beloved Packers pulled in a whopping 94% of the vote in the land of Cheese Heads. Confidence in the Cardinals chances was pretty marginal all over the country. The Cards break the 40% threshold in only three states away from home; Arizona neighbors Utah (42%) and New Mexico (42%) in addition to Wyoming (40%) where just 65-votes have been cast from the smallest U.S. state. Conversely 21-states pick the Packers by more than 70% of the vote. In seven states that percentage exceeds three-quarters of the voting population led by the 78% in Delaware.

Which team will win the AFC Wild Card game in New England?

Totals Votes: 37,339 (11:45 AM, Friday)

New England Patriots: 52%

Baltimore Ravens: 48%

Notes: The closest vote in any of the four games this weekend comes out of New England where the home team Patriots edge the Baltimore Ravens 52-48%. Voting is so close in fact the five states; New York, Ohio, South Carolina, New Mexico and California essentially split 50-50 between the two teams. Furthermore if these results were reflected in a Presidential election there would currently be no winner in the Electoral College. The Ravens with a lower percentage of the popular vote would take home 24-states and 223 “electors”. The leading Patriots meanwhile with 22-state wins would collect 196-votes with 119 remaining “too close to call”. Support outside of the country is more decisively in favor of New England (59%) probably due to their higher profile as a three-time Super Bowl champion in the decade. Not surprisingly the Patriots are most popular in New England. 90% of votes in Massachusetts, 89% in Maine, 88% in New Hampshire and 84% in Rhode Island believe the Pats will win Sunday. 81% of Maryland residents and 63% in Washington D.C. think it will be a Ravens victory meanwhile. Pennsylvania was narrowly split 51-49% in favor of Baltimore as well.

Which team will win the AFC Wild Card game in Cincinnati?

Total Votes: 40,320 (12:00 PM, Friday)

Cincinnati Bengals: 60%

New York Jets: 40%

Notes: The Jets may have crushed the Bengals in last week’s season finale but a clear majority of “Sports Nation” believes Cincinnati will come out on top of Saturday’s playoff contest. Six in ten nationwide are choosing the Bengals and the Jets receive majority support from none outside of New York’s tri-state area of New York state (74%), New Jersey (69%) and Connecticut (59%). The Bengals meanwhile generate support for their postseason chances from better than 70% of voters in Ohio (81%) and three of its neighbors; Kentucky (79%), West Virginia (77%) and Indiana (70%). Of the 2,645 fans who cast votes from outside the United States the Bengals were the pick by a similar 61-39% margin. Like the other AFC match up between New England and Baltimore the Bengals-Jets contest features a team with a 10-6 record hosting a 9-7 club. The NFC meanwhile has two 11-5 teams going head-to-head in Dallas this weekend and a 10-6 Cardinals team hosting an eleven-win Packers squad. All four games are close-calls according to sports betters. The Eagles as being favored to lose by a mere four-points are the biggest underdog of the first playoff round.