Poll: Blackhawks to defeat Flyers in Cup Finals, fans closely divided in support for either team

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The Flyers magical run to the Stanley Cup Finals has already converted many skeptics throughout the Delaware Valley. Not nearly as many nationwide believe they will defeat the Blackhawks however.

ESPN.com unscientifically polled sports fans on a variety of questions pertaining to the Philly-Chicago Cup Finals match up. Of the over 104,000 fans across “sports nation” who have chimed in as of this morning 68% believe the Blackhawks will win their first championship since 1961. The Flyers 35-year title drought meanwhile will be ended in the opinion of 32% of ESPN voters.

Looking at state by state results the Flyers are the pick in just three states all making up the greater Philadelphia tri-state area. Delawareans are the most confident with 73% taking Philly in the Finals. Seven of ten Pennsylvanians (70%) are too counting on a Flyers victory. In the Garden State meanwhile 53% think the Orange and Black will hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup. On the flip side many states are leaning heavily against the Flyers chances in this upcoming series. Philadelphia gets under 20% of the vote in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota and Wisconsin. Not surprisingly it was the Blackhawks home state of Illinois that ranked as the most fiercely confident of any to the tune of 93% believing in their home team’s chances of victory.

A far smaller sample size of around 13,000 responded to the question of which team did they want to win the Cup. The Flyers-Blackhawks match up in this instance was far more evenly divided. Currently Chicago had the favor of a slight majority of sports fans outdistancing Philadelphia by a slim 52-48% margin. While cultivating one of the NHL’s larger national fan bases through the years the Flyers are also one of the most vilified teams in hockey. This dates back to their “Broad Street Bullies” teams of the 1970s that resulted in two Stanley Cup championships and a boat load of critics. A recent HBO documentary also titled “Broad Street Bullies” examined in greater depth the perception of team who was both a hero and villain.

The Flyers are the more popular team in several states including Hawaii, Arkansas, Alabama, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Washington D.C. and in West Virginia where there is a 50-50 tie between the two combatants. In New Jersey meanwhile some 79% are pulling for a Flyers victory. That figure balloons to 88% when talking about Pennsylvanians and a whopping 95% of those residing in the First State of Delaware. Conversely 95% of those in Illinois are rooting for their Blackhawks and Chicago is also heavily supported in North Dakota (89%) and neighboring Indiana (88%). In total the Hawks are the people’s choice in 38-states.


Better coach? The Flyers Peter Laviolette who already has one Cup victory on his resume and was largely responsible for engineering Philadelphia’s amazing comeback in their Conference Semi-Finals series against Boston gets the slight nod. Chicago coach Joel Quenneville who led his Blackhawks to the second best regular season point total (112) in the league is beaten out by a modest 54-46% margin. Those residing outside the borders of the United States are evenly split 50-50 on the subject. Overall Laviolette is the pick in 28-states and Washington D.C.

Better goalie? It’s a neck and neck race between Flyers goaltender Michael Leighton and Blackhawks netminder Antii Niemi. Both have excelled in these playoffs and neither was considered amongst the elite at their position prior to an impressive postseason run. Leighton in particular didn’t even compete in the playoffs until the second round against the Bruins due to an injury to goalie Brian Boucher who himself was a backup to Ray Emery, injured during the regular season. Leighton is the choice in 25-states plus Washington D.C. while Niemi gets more respect in 22-states. Voters in Maine, New Mexico and Utah are currently locked in a 50-50 tie.

Lastly another evenly divided result was voted upon by over 50,000 sports fans on ESPN.com. Chicago and Philadelphia are widely considered to be two of the very best sports cities in America and this question asks the general public who is more of a “hockey town”. The Hawks have tradition as a member of the “Original Six” and claim for the highest NHL attendance over the past two seasons. Still the Flyers have enjoyed consistently higher attendance, revenue and local TV ratings over at least the last two decades. In recent years Philadelphia was also ranked in publications such as Sports Illustrated and the Sporting News as either the best, or amongst the top-three American hockey markets.

Including D.C. Philadelphia was recognized as the better hockey town in 28-states with three others; Alaska, Idaho and Washington, split 50-50. Of course it’s not surprising to see 85% of those living in Illinois believing their home city of Chicago being the better of the two whereas three-quarters (75%) of Pennsylvanians claiming Philadelphia is the more passionate hockey town – a state that also has a rival team residing in Pittsburgh.

The Stanley Cup Finals begins on Saturday at 8pm on NBC with a majority of national analysts picking the Blackhawks to win the series. Noted ESPN analyst and former NHL head coach Barry Melrose predicted these two teams would meet each other in the Finals during the preseason and he now picks Chicago to defeat the Flyers in six.

Poll: Sestak leads Toomey 46-42% in first major survey since Tuesday primaries

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Fresh off his surprise victory over longtime Senator Arlen Specter in Tuesday’s Democratic primary Joe Sestak appears to be carrying some serious momentum into the general election campaign.

Rasmussen Reports has released the first poll of post-primary collected date and its good news for the 7th District Congressman turned Senate nominee. Sestak leads opponent Pat Toomey, the easy victor on the Republican side, by a margin of 46-42%. This is the first time Sestak has led Toomey since declaring his candidacy for the position last August. Twelve-percent of Pennsylvania voters remain uncertain of either major party candidate or prefer someone else completely.

While Sestak has enjoyed plenty of momentum over the past few weeks it will be interesting to see if the results of this poll represent a short-lived bounce or are part of a broader trend. Two weeks ago the Democrat ran neck and neck with Toomey and his overall numbers from May are a marked improvement from Rasmussen polling from February through April. During that span Sestak’s average deficit was by a 45-37% margin. His current four-point advantage comes days after an impressive showing in Pennsylvania’s May 18th Democratic primary. The second term congressman effectively ended the political career of state institution Arlen Specter by a 54-46% margin.

Pat Toomey was the runaway winner on the Republican side with 82% of the vote capturing the nomination without being seriously contested. Toomey continues to run ahead of Sestak with unaffiliated voters by a margin of 41-32%. Sestak meanwhile has received a substantial boost from his own party as the latest polling indicates he is now supported by 80% of Pennsylvania Democrats, up sixteen-points from before Tuesday’s primary. 20% of voters in the Keystone State now view Sestak “very” favorably against 13% who hold a very unfavorable opinion and 14% who are undecided. Toomey has a solid 21-10% split between those viewing him very favorably and unfavorably while 19% of voters don’t offer an opinion either way.

Many within the Democratic ranks are banking on a Sestak win in the fall to help stem the tide of a possible Republican insurgency. Political analyst Larry J. Sabato of the University of Virginia predicts substantial Democratic losses in the November election but not damaged badly enough to lose control of either the House or Senate. Currently his projections show the Republicans with a net gain of seven-seats in the Senate and 27-seats in the House of Representatives. He also rates the Senate race in Pennsylvania as a toss-up. Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com meanwhile believes Toomey and the Republicans have a 71% chance of victory in the Keystone State, but that assessment came before these recent poll findings from Rasmussen.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Michael Perez

Poll: Specter and Sestak race 'too close to call' as we head to Election Day

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It’s down to the wire in the Keystone State and polls show a virtual dead heat.

Tomorrow, May 18th, Democrats across Pennsylvania will cast their vote for which candidate will represent their party against Republican Pat Toomey in November. Long time Senator and recently minted Democrat Arlen Specter was seen as the front runner in the race against second term Congressman Joe Sestak. In recent weeks however as a flurry of campaign ads and issues raised from both sides have filled the airwaves the battle for Specter’s long held Senate seat has heated up.

Suggesting the race is still at a deadlock might actually be encouraging words to Arlen Specter supporters. After all some reputable new polling in recent days shows the Sestak insurgency has moved in front.


Last week a survey from Rasmussen Reports showed, that for the first time, Sestak had moved ahead of Specter by a margin of 47-42% in their primary showdown. A new survey conducted by Franklin & Marshall in affiliation with the Philadelphia Daily News meanwhile places Sestak as the narrow front runner. With a lead of 38-36% in that poll over a quarter of voters have yet to voice their preference for either candidate. Released this morning a new poll from Quinnipiac meanwhile shows a virtually even race. The poll has Sestak inching in front by a margin of 42-41%. Still a relatively high number of Democratic voters (16%) remain undecided of either candidate whereas a quarter of those supporting either suggest they could change their decision prior to heading into the voting booth on Tuesday.

"The Sestak-Specter race is a dead heat and could go either way. Sen. Arlen
Specter has the party organization behind him, which should help with turnout.
But Congressman Joe Sestak could benefit from the relatively large group of
undecided voters. Generally, incumbents don't do all that well with undecideds,
who are more likely to vote for the challenger or not vote." -- Peter A. Brown,
assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute

With a large number of Pennsylvanians from all parties believing Arlen Specter has worn out his welcome as a representative in the U.S. Senate and the general anti-incumbent tone of this election cycle it’s easy to see where the veteran senator’s difficulties lie. But Democrats in the Keystone State also seem to be keeping watchful out for which candidate matches up better with Pat Toomey, the presumptive Republican nominee, in the fall.

Released last Monday a Rasmussen poll finds Joe Sestak as considerably more likely to keep the senate seat from falling into Republican hands. In their still hypothetical match up Sestak trails Toomey by just two-points, 42-40%. Arlen Specter meanwhile is currently outdistanced by the Republican candidate to the tune of a twelve-point, 50-38% margin. The Franklin & Marshall survey found a more level playing field with Toomey ahead of Sestak 29-28% and leading Specter by a statistically insignificant 35-33% margin.

That said this election appears to be referendum on the current political environment nationally and on Senator Specter’s declining popularity at home. Just 32% of Pennsylvanians rated Specter’s job performance as “good” or “excellent” against 33% who labeled it only “fair” and an additional 29% who rate it “poor”. With such large blocks of voters undecided only a day out from going to the polls the Specter campaign still appears to have life. It is however hard to ignore the momentum that has been pointing in the direction of his challenger for several weeks now. Don’t count Arlen out but expect a Sestak victory and tight race between he and Toomey that will stretch across the next five and half months.

Poll: Sestak now leads Specter 47-42% in Pennsylvania Senate race

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With just over a week remaining before droves of Pennsylvanians will vote in their highly publicized Democratic primary a just released survey from Rasmussen Reports indicates some major new developments.

According to the poll 7th District Congressman Joe Sestak has now caught and passed longtime Senator Arlen Specter in their race for the Democratic nomination. As of this morning “likely” voters as tracked by Rasmussen indicate a lead for the second-term congressman at 47-42%. With the election set to take place on Tuesday, May 18th, 8% of Pennsylvanian Democrats remain undecided and another 3% support a different candidate from their party.

Other national polls have indicated the race for Specter’s Senate seat has tightened in recent weeks but this is the first major poll to show an outright lead for Sestak. In March Specter’s lead was a seemingly comfortable 48-37%. In April however an aggressive ad campaign by Sestak-camp began to whittle away the lead and by mid-month the Senator’s advantage was down to a virtual 44-42% tossup. A month later Sestak’s sudden advantage has perhaps been bolstered by what many viewers considered a strong televised debate performance as well as the anti-incumbent sentiment permeating through the political landscape of 2010.

It will be interesting to see if other pollsters reflect these new findings as the Rasmussen survey results are based off of a relatively small sample of just 408-likely Democratic voters. A much larger poll of 930-likely voters conducted by Quinnipiac University just last week showed Specter retaining an shrinking but respectable 47-39% lead over his Democratic rival.

With the airwaves of the Philadelphia region and beyond now filled by attack ads coming from both sides the public sentiment seems to be favoring Sestak’s approach. Whereas 35% of voters consider Arlen Specter’s campaign to be taking on a negative tone just 11% accuse of Sestak of the same. 39% meanwhile see Sestak as running a mostly positive advertising and speaking campaign with just 22% of the opinion that Senator Specter is engaging in that as well.

The small disparity between each candidate’s favorable and unfavorable ratings eludes to the likelihood that Pennsylvania Democrats are basing their support on campaign tone or wedge issues. Arlen Specter is viewed favorably by 67% of Democratic voters in the Keystone State with 31% viewing him unfavorably. Joe Sestak meanwhile has a 63-22% favorable to unfavorable split with 14% of Democrats still not knowing enough about the congressman to cast any sort of opinion.

Whichever candidate wins the testy May 18th primary they’ll likely have their hands full against Republican challenger Pat Toomey. Rasmussen polling of less than a month ago showed Toomey with a 50-40% advantage over Senator Specter and a 47-36% lead over Congressman Sestak. If the volatile race for Senate on the Democratic side of serves as any sort of general election preview however a Toomey match up against either nominee could be a vicious and narrow race to the finish line.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / RICK SCHULTZ

Poll: Phillies now more popular than Eagles? Philly fans reveal their hometown preferences

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Are the Phillies really more popular than the Eagles? Has their success in recent years turned Philadelphia from a football to baseball town? What is the greatest Philly sports tradition or venue and does our current pro-Phillies bias really hold up against the hard data?

An expansive survey released today by the Philadelphia Daily News looks to answer those questions and many more. Today’s release was the first of a four part series titled the “Philadelphia Fan Project”. Collecting data of 2,300 subscribers on the philly.com website and with assistance from the Sport and Industry Research Center at Temple University the Daily News has presented an informed and thoroughly interesting piece. Below are some of the highlights and critique of a fan study that is sure to settle certain arguments while creating hot topics of discussion around the water coolers and drinking establishments of greater-Philadelphia.

Q: What is your favorite Philadelphia pro sports team?

1) Phillies – 54%
2) Eagles – 30%
3) Flyers – 12%
4) Sixers – 4%

As anyone who is involved in political polling for a living will surely tell you surveys such as these are relevant only within the specific time period they are taken. Surely this set of data collected by the Daily News in mid-March skews favorably towards the Phillies. Coming off of their second consecutive World Series appearance there was significant buzz for the local baseball franchise as they were gearing up for the 2010 season at Spring Training in Clearwater. Counter that with growing criticism of the Eagles who exited the NFL postseason with an embarrassing playoff defeat in January.

March also is not football season and good or bad it would be interesting to see what the results of this poll would have been if the data had been collected between the months of August (NFL preseason) and January (NFL postseason). Still the Phillies considerable advantage over the Eagles is notable and, while no prior studies can be used to compare, it has to mark a considerable turnaround in the appeal for both teams from just a few years ago.

Unsurprisingly the Flyers and Sixers trailed well behind. Not that Philly fans needed a survey to tell them that the Phillies and Eagles were the top dogs in town but that both the hockey and basketball seasons were in full swing by March, unlike football or baseball, ought to come with a growing sense of alarm for the occupiers of the Wachovia Center. The Flyers recent playoff surge belies a relatively disappointing regular season that nearly cost them a postseason appearance. The Sixers meanwhile are trending aimlessly backwards. The faceless franchise is in the bottom-third of NBA attendance, local TV-ratings while finishing high on its list of loses during the 2009-10 season. Amazing to think how different the landscape was for the local hoops team just six or seven years ago.

Q: Which team will win the next championship?

1) Phillies – 89%
2) Eagles – 5%
3) Flyers – 5%
4) Sixers – 0%

Energized by the recent success of their baseball team Philadelphia sports fans not only rate the Phillies as their current favorite but also by a landslide believe they have the best shot of any of the four teams to bring another championship parade to the City of Brotherly Love. In 2008 the Fightin’ Phils broke the city’s quarter-century title drought and nearly nine in ten responders to this poll believe they’ll also win the next title. The Phillies success, narrowly missing a World Series title repeat last fall, has seemingly embolden local sports fans with a sense of confidence. For whoever does wind up winning the next championship the average responder believes it will happen within the next two years.

The Eagles are coming off of an 11-5 season in 2009 and reached the Conference Title Game as recently as January of that year. Yet only one in twenty give the Birds, behind new starting quarterback Kevin Kolb, the best shot of winning a championship out of the four major pro teams occupying the sporting landscape in Philadelphia. Equaling their total are the Flyers who are a consistent playoff team but have failed to hoist the Stanley Cup since 1975. Again the Sixers trail the pack in fourth place. Virtually no one assumes an NBA Championship is in the cards anytime soon, much less before another World Series parade, Lombardi or Stanley Cup trophy comes to town.

Q: Philadelphia is a __________ town?

1) Football – 70%
2) Baseball – 27%
3) Hockey – 2%
4) Basketball – 1%

As a team the Phillies may be number one in the hearts of Philadelphians but the sport of baseball remains a distant second to their passion for football. Philly has recaptured some of its long lost recognition as a top of the line baseball city in recent years. In 2009 alone the Phillies had the highest attendance percentage in all of baseball and were third behind the Red Sox and Cardinals in local-TV ratings. Yet football is king in Philadelphia just as it is in most of the country.

Harris polls surveying fans nationwide have shown the NFL as a two to one favorite over the MLB for favorite sports league. Those numbers are even more lopsided in favor of football when the college ranks are included. In Philly football is the choice of seven in ten responders when asked what they consider to be the “biggest” sport in town. The Eagles success in spite of not having won a championship in five decades reflects this passion for pigskins. The Birds have the highest attendance percentage in the NFL since 1990, a season ticket waiting list that stretches over decades and local television fan base that is routinely among the top-tier of the league.

Both Sports Illustrated and the Sporting News have ranked Philadelphia as either the best or one of the top-three hockey cities in America in recent years. None the less the locals defer heavily to football and baseball as the two prominent sports in the City of Brotherly Love. Just 2% of the overall crowd sees Philadelphia as a hockey town. Only 1% consider it to be a basketball-first city despite many great 76ers moments, players and teams and the fabulous local college basketball tradition of the Big-5. The disparity between football and baseball remains large but it’s probably as close as it has been in recent memory. Fueled by the Phillies success baseball has convinced 27% of local sports fans that it is the top sport in Philadelphia.

Q: What is your favorite Philadelphia sports venue?

1) Citizens Bank Park – 74%
2) Lincoln Financial Field – 8%
3) Wachovia Center – 8%
4) Palestra – 8%

Postseason baseball in Philadelphia has become a familiar occurrence in recent years and the fans have responded by routinely packing the seats at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies soaring popularity as reflected in this study has made the “Bank” the place to be in recent years. Yet the success of the team that plays there does not completely explain the massive disparity between it and the other venues as Philadelphia’s favorite place to watch a sporting event.

Nearly three-quarters of responders chose the Phillies home park as their favorite place to watch a game. The accessibility of baseball as a cheaper and more family oriented option always gives baseball an edge in this department. Even during lousy attendance seasons for the Phillies at the often reviled Veterans Stadiums 1.5 to 2-million fans routinely passed through the turn styles each season. Even those totals dwarfed figures for the Eagles, Flyers and Sixers who have fewer games, sell pricier tickets and in the case of hockey and basketball play in a far smaller venue.

Dismissing Citizens Bank Park as merely the product of a championship caliber team’s success or its accessibility as the home of a fan friendlier sport would be missing the point however. In truth the “Bank” is widely considered one of the best stadiums in all of Major League Baseball. Opened in 2004 the beautiful baseball-only park instantly gave droves of fans a better excuse to attend a baseball game than ever before. Whereas the foreboding Vet was hardly a choice venue even in years when the Phillies played well, Citizens Bank with its beautiful design, fan-friendly arrangements and caveats in tow encourages Philadelphia fans to enjoy a night at the park even if the baseball team is performing below par.

Another state of the art facility is Lincoln Financial Field, home of the Eagles since 2003. Rarely do football stadiums exude the same type of charm or distinction as their baseball-only counterparts however which immediately places the “Linc” behind the eight ball. Furthermore the fan experience while riveting when the local football team is playing well touches far fewer fans. Most of the attendees during each game of each season are among the few dozen thousand season ticket holders and with only eight regular season games scheduled there are ten-times less the opportunities to catch the Eagles than the Phillies. If that weren’t enough the ticket prices surely are. Lower-level tickets at the “Linc” average $95. That’s a far pricier option for a family of four than grabbing decent seats at a Phillies game.

Q: What is the best Philadelphia sports tradition? (Responders allowed to choose up to three)

1) Kate Smith singing “God Bless America” – 43%
2) E-A-G-L-E-S chant – 42%
3) The Big-5 – 39%
4) Army-Navy Game – 29%
5) Penn Relays – 21%
6) Dave Zinkoff intros – 17%
7) Booing – 16%
8) Fireworks night at the Phillies – 16%
9) Tailgating – 14%
10) “Let’s Go Flyers” chant – 12%

Perhaps nothing is more identifiable with the Philly sports scene than a fan “booing” or an E-A-G-L-E-S chant breaking out yet it’s a patriotic anthem that stirred emotions at Flyers games which comes out on top.

Allowing responders to choose up to three famous Philly traditions, fifteen received votes, but none more than 43% who choose Kate Smith’s famous rendition of “God Bless America” at Flyers games. The hockey team went an amazing 81-21-4 when Smith belted out the patriotic standard rather than a Star Spangled rendition at the Spectrum. Smith has been immortalized by a statue outside the famed Philly arena and will also have her likeness placed on a stamp on May 19th – the 36th anniversary of the Flyers first Cup clinching victory in 1974.

The Eagles were a close second on this list with 42% choosing the never mistaken “E-A-G-L-E-S” chant heard for decades. Also prominently positioned was the great Philly college basketball tradition of the Big-5 particularly its history of games at the iconic Palestra. The Army-Navy Game (29%) is a yearly Philadelphia tradition and also cracking the 20% barrier are the nationally recognized Penn Relays. Former 76ers P.A. announcer Dave Zinkoff is remembered fondly by at least 17% of responders most notably for his famous starting lineup introductions including one “Julius Errrrrrvvvvvving”.

If this were a national survey the Philly fan “boo” would have to be the front runner for the top-spot. Local fans disagree however with only 16% identifying the classic phrase as either self defining or worthy of a great local sports tradition. Tailgating, primarily before Eagles games, is highly regarded by 14% of the audience and “Let’s Go Flyers” chants (12%) while popular are around three and a half times less immortalized in the hearts of Philly fans as roars of “E-A-G-L-E-S, Eagles”. Missing the top-ten but also receiving votes were streamers and rollouts at the Palestra (10%), Businessperson Specials at Phillies games (9%), boxing fights at the Blue Horizon (4%), the recently participated Broad Street Run (3%), and the Pennsylvania Derby in horse racing (1%).

A: Most popular teams and topics online (Philly.com webpage views for March, 2010)

1) Eagles – 36.8%
2) Phillies – 29.0%
3) Flyers – 17.4%
4) High School Sports – 8.9%
5) Sixers – 7.9%

The Phillies may be the most popular team in town according to polls but the real action shows the Eagles are still getting more attention. The figures above were taken from the Inquirer and Daily News accompanying website www.philly.com. The percentages represent the breakdown of “sub-front” page views by team or topic. There were more than 2.5-million of these page views during the month of March and despite it coming in the midst of the NFL offseason the Eagles remained the topic generating the most attention online.

How that translates into overall popularity is the subject of debate. News for an organization can be good, bad or just plain interesting. Although their season was over by two months during this online measurement cycle the Donovan McNabb trade situation had remained a hot topic on the minds of local sports fans well before he was officially dealt to Washington. Still the Eagles impressive showing beating the Phillies by nearly eight-percentage points despite being up against Spring Training fever is revealing. It also perhaps serves as a counterpoint to the perception that the Phillies are now the city’s most popular team based off of ever changing fan polling.

The Flyers stretch run began in earnest during the month of March meanwhile. It was as previously eluded to a rather ordinary and uneventful regular season for the Flyers yet a significant percentage of Philly sports fans still kept up with the latest news on their team. Sadly for the Sixers when it comes to this measurement of fan enthusiasm they couldn’t even crack the top-four. That position goes to the philly.com section titled “Rally” that focuses on local high school sports. With their lifeless 2009-10 season winding down the Sixers ultimately scored 7.9% of the total page views in March. That’s more than four and a half times less the attention the Eagles received despite it being arguably the least eventful of NFL months.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Matt Slocumb