Polls divided in New Jersey, race for Governor remains a toss-up

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And down the stretch they come…

In less than four days droves of New Jersey residents will head to their local precincts and cast their vote for Governor. For months the race between sitting Governor Jon Corzine and Republican challenger Chris Christie has grabbed local headlines and peaked interest nationally. The possible bellwether effect being touted by many media pundits will render its first high profile success story or failure for either party this Tuesday November 3rd.

As this election directly relates to the outcome of the impending 2010 midterms will stay unknown for quite some time. Both parties however will surely celebrate a victory and tout it as a sign of things to come. A Christie victory will be the first big step on the road to recovery for a banged up GOP. An upset from vulnerable incumbent Corzine will allow Democrats to drive home the perception that while 2009 has been a shaky year they remain the stronger party.

The last and most important round of polling will be conducted early next week, for now we see some varying results that point to an increasingly tight race.

Real Clear Politics is a useful resource in that it averages out the totals from several recent polls on any number of topics. In the instance of this NJ Governor’s race six major polls have been released over the past week. The cumulative effect shows a narrow lead for Governor Corzine averaging out to 41.8 – 40.5% margin of victory. Independent candidate Christopher Daggett runs a respectable third taking in eleven-percent of the vote.

The problem is not every poll is created equal. Even if the methods used by all polls were both accurate and consistent to one another the relative size of the survey would also play a factor. Far and away the two largest of the six surveys being captured by RCP are from the reliable polling organizations Rasmussen Reports and Quinnipiac Uniersity. What is interesting then is the disparity between these two polls. Rasmussen has Republican Christie clinging to a 46-43% lead in the race for Governor with Chris Daggett falling further behind at 8%. Quinnipiac on the other hand polling 1,267 likely voters in New Jersey now projects a 43-38% lead for Governor Corzine and Daggett at 13% of the vote also scoring with greater impact.

Any number of reasons could explain the eight-point swing gathered between both polls. Looking at each of Corzine and Christie’s favorability ratings is one such indication. According to Rasmussen Governor Corzine has a 44-54% favorable to unfavorable split with New Jersey voters. Chris Christie meanwhile is at 48% and 50% respectively. The Quinnipiac survey meanwhile has Corzine at a 41-52% margin and challenger Christie lagging at a 37-42% figure. With voters in the Garden State as narrowly divided between both challengers as the polls indicate it stands to reason that most will cast their vote for the candidate they simply dislike less.

If the differences between the results from recent Rasmussen and Quinnipiac surveys didn’t already leave plenty of gray area other pollsters show a range of figures as well. A Suffolk University survey gathering data from just 400 likely voters and a staggeringly high number of self-described independents shows Corzine with a nine-point lead. The latest Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of 600 likely voters fits Chris Christie with narrow 42-41% lead. Survey USA who does well with their sampling but asks some curiously odd questions like; “What is your favorite NFL team” and “Are you a Bruce Springsteen fan” has the race locked in a 43-43% dead-heat. Fairleigh Dickinson polling nearly 700-likely voters has Christie inching his way out to a narrow 41-39% lead with two in ten New Jersey voters going for either independent Chris Daggett or some other candidate.

With the race for New Jersery Governor having reached the back stretch two things seem clear in regards to polling. First is that most agree the heated campaign is also a very tight one and could be decided by just a few thousand votes on Election Day. Secondly is that in spite of the closeness being portrayed there is no consensus on a likely winner. Some polling organizations will have clear bragging rights with others wiping the egg off of their faces next Tuesday.

Poll: Public resists sending more troops to Afghanistan, also hesitant on Pakistan

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With a majority of the public focused most closely on economic matters at home it’s easy to lose sight of the growing problem facing President Obama and our military in Afghanistan.

This morning the latest round of troubling news appeared as fourteen Americans were killed in two separate helicopter crashes. The President is being pressured from all sides to declare a firm course of action just as the American public remains leery of battle in Afghanistan.

Three recent polls help track the current state of mind being expressed by the public on Afghanistan. CNN/Opinion Research Corporation indicates broad resistance to the idea of sending more American troops into combat. 59% are opposed against just 39% who are in favor of increasing troop levels in Afghanistan. Eight-percent of the public wants to see current levels maintained but a significant block (21%) would like to see a reduction in our fighting forces with an additional 28% in favor of a complete withdraw. 61% of American adults see the war in Afghanistan relating to the greater war on terror following the events of September 11, 2001.

Less than one in three Americans have confidence in the ability of an Afghani government to sustain a democratic government, keeps it citizens safe and root out terror suspects and cells. Perhaps the most eye opening piece of polling from the CNN survey is the 52% of the public who believe Afghanistan has turned into a similar situation faced by America during the Vietnam War.

An ABC/Washington Post survey contradicts those CNN findings somewhat in regards to Vietnam. In their poll just 35% feel the current situation has escalated to being the same as Vietnam against 58% who are still confident America will be able to avoid that. Still the ABC poll illustrates a similar theme to CNN’s findings of an American public who is both uncomfortable and unconfident regarding the situation. 49% against 47% of Americans overall believe the war has not been worth fighting.

Confidence in President Obama’s ability to handle to situation is shrinking with just 45% approving of the job he is doing against 47% who disapprove in that area. Those numbers are down ten-points from a 55-37% margin six-weeks ago. Furthermore over twice as many (63%) believe the Obama administration lacks a coherant plan for handling the situation in Afghanistan as those who do believe (31%) the White House has a clear focus.

Rasmussen Reports takes the issue a step further linking Pakistan to the discussion. As terror attacks continue relentlessly in that country 42% of the public believes victory to be impossible in Afghanistan if Pakistan remains unstable. A quite large percentage of Americans (35%) claim to be undecided on the topic with just 22% thinking it possible for our country to win in Afghanistan if the situation in Pakistan does not improve. 45% of the public believes it possible to still win the war in Afghanistan but a majority of poll responders believe that it either is not possible or remain unsure.

The leeriness of the American public regarding direct military action surfaces to some degree in two separate responses. The first shows that 79% of U.S. voters are concerned about the Taliban taking over Afghanistan with 45% of that block “very” concerned. Still, support for sending troops to combat radical Taliban forces is just 37%, with 34% who are not in favor and 30% who remain uncertain.

How opinion surveys shape public policy & change history

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The emphasis placed on public opinion surveys has never been weightier or more obvious than in recent years. Policy is often shaped by the polls, the news media relies upon them and public opinion is often swayed by them.

Andrew Kohut, President of the Pew Research Center recently wrote an article that is well worth taking a look at for anyone interested in the process of opinion polling and how it has shaped the politics of our nation. Kohut’s commentary is brought to us compliments of a broader article from the CQ Press entitled The Politics of News: The News of Politics, 2nd Edition.

Feel free to sift through the full piece posted on the Pew Research Center homepage found here. Below are some cliffs notes and excerpts from the article.

Polls now provide leaders with capital or impoverish them in their efforts to
promote policies. Those who can back up their assertions by pointing to poll
results find the going easier than leaders who cannot. In turn, news
organizations cover policy initiatives differently when programs appear to have
popular support compared with when they do not.

Kohut begins his article detailing the dramatic shift in public opinion and how it has subsequently been recorded in just the past two decades. Starting with the self-assured carefree days of the 1990s when America played its role as world leader and innovator, seemingly with neither threat nor competition. Finishing at the ever-evolving present day and post-9/11 world where our country’s damaged psyche is tempered by our greater concern and stronger focus on the issues. Polling in these times plays an increasingly important role, so much so that the numerical results and conclusions drawn from simple surveys at times overwhelm the actual topic they measure.

The article then reflects back to the 1960s when personal interviewing began to give way to other more sophisticated research technologies. Surveys were generally mailed out to a mass audiences in the early days or done in person. Furthermore there was little competition with Gallup and Harris being two of the only organizations with the finances and facilities to run effective polling.

So conditions were right for the news media to embrace polling. And they did.
The CBS/New York Times poll started regular news surveys in 1975. NBC's
first partner was the Associated Press, and it began polling in 1978.
The ABC/Washington Post poll was launched in 1981.

The impact of this on reporting of the findings of opinion polls is quite clear. In the turbulent late-60s and early-70s effective polling became critical to news organizations following trends in public opinion that were at times rapidly changing. The advent of telephone polling, spearheaded by the likes of reduced long-distance rates from carries like AT&T, to a nation where phone usage was nearly universal by this point changed the landscape. News media publications began to compete with the standard Gallup, Harris and Roper polling organizations. The CBS/New York Times poll began in 1975 and the ABC/Washington Post poll had emerged by 1981.

The Carter administration was the first to endure the effects of full and comprehensive opinion polling from top to bottom. Years later the Reagan administration saw strong public resistance to their plans for intervening in Nicaragua. Secret covert missions were developed in an attempt to keep White House and Pentagon military missions out of the court of public opinion. Kohut asserts that it was this backlash to the effects of polling that in some way influenced public outrage and exposed the more serious Iran-contra dealings.

The polls provided a track record of the impact of the two most significant
steps the [Bush] administration took to secure public approval. First, by
seeking and obtaining a U.N. Security Council vote setting a deadline for Iraqi
withdrawal from Kuwait, the administration transformed public opinion about the
use of force, a transformation well tracked by Gallup's CNN/ USA Today polls.

By the early-90s mass military force against a foreign country was met with resistance by many Americans still rattled by lessons learned from Vietnam. In response to lukewarm polling around the growing Iraq conflict in the Middle East, President Bush skillfully campaigned on the necessity for action always quite informed of the public’s pulse on the issue. Polling advised the President to seek Congressional approval for going to war instead of waiting for economic sanctions to deter Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. The strategy worked. Gulf War I was successful and ended swiftly with American victory just as the President’s own approval ratings skyrocketed largely as result of his handling of the conflict.

The most surprising effect of polling may have come in the late-90s and surrounded President Clinton’s rising public approval even as he was embroiled in scandal. Clinton’s misdeeds involving Monica Lewinsky and resulting in impeachment could have derailed or even ended his Presidency. Instead the public warmed to the President taking a negative view to his harsh treatment from the news media and his accusers. Clinton's approval rating according to a Pew survey jumped ten-points to 71% in the weeks that followed the Lewinsky revelations in 1998.

The reaction of the Bush administration to the feedback from the polls was a lack of reaction. The president continued to promote the plan in meetings across the country. As a result, growing numbers of Americans became aware of the idea, fewer supported it, and more expressed overall disapproval for Bush. He was spending his political capital, but not getting much for it.After his reelection in 2005 President George W. Bush declared a virtual mandate on certain policies, most notably his push for the privitazation of Social Security. While many Americans showed interest in the possibility of a shift in the program as the President campaigned so too did his detractors line up. Public opinion dropped to 46% by March of 2005 down from 58% in December of the previous year.

Bush’s last years in office were mired by the polls as much as the events. The slow response to the Hurricane Katrina disaster in New Orleans in September of 2005 sent his approval ratings spiraling downward. Critical midterm defeats in the fall of 2006 left his Presidency lifeless and Bush carried on for the next two years with anemic ratings measured in the upper-20 and 30-percentiles.

These cases should not be viewed as a celebration of the power of public opinion or the importance of polls. Rather, they illustrate the extent to which public views have played a central role in the course of national affairs since the 1980s. They also provide an opportunity to consider how the emergence of an empowered public has altered the relationship both between the people and the press and the people and its leaders.

Andrew Kohut ends his fascinating article with a list of lessons learned from opinion polling and the limits of surveying even in this day and age. The American people it would seem have great capacity to ignore the media just as the media misjudges the public time and again. Clinton’s rise in popularity despite scandal and the “Bush” brand name crushing even fairly popular proposals during his second term for instance. In 1988 many in the media expected George H.W. Bush’s selection of running mate Dan Quayle would torpedo his chances in the fall. Indeed most Americans held the would-be Vice President in low regard but it didn’t stop the Bush-ticket from winning big that year.

The Republican takeover of Congress in 1995 gave rise to the perception of a conservative movement in American that would doom Clinton and most Democrats for years to came. Polls showed that it was the desire to vote more-anti Democrat than pro-GOP that engineered the midterm landslide of 1994. Clinton won reelection easily two years later however and even bucked the classic “six year itch” by picking up power in Congress in 1998. The Clinton-administration was able to pass welfare reform and NAFTA, despite an opposition Congress, at least in part through its support in the polls. Earlier in his Presidency meanwhile public preference for the Clinton health care plan went from tepid support to strong rejection over a six-month period.

If one thing is true about the American public especially in these ever-changing times is that even a big story has a lifecycle. The attention span of most of the public is limited and reactionary on national matters allowing for dramatic shifts in the electorate over several months. George H.W. Bush found that out the hard way in 1992. Just eighteen-months after he recorded the highest ratings ever for a President he was soundly defeated for reelection. Currently President Obama is also feeling the effects of a fair-weather public that is only as supportive as the next news cycle allows.

It is certainly not unreasonable to think that the public is susceptible to undue persuasion on occasion, but there is a long history of failed attempts to manipulate public opinion. Perhaps the best way to think about public opinion and its relationship to politics and policymaking is that the American public is typically short on facts, but often long on judgment.

Poll: 17% of baseball fans expect Phillies to win World Series

Many will bark jinx at the mere mention of another Phillies trip to the World Series before they have officially taken care of business against the Los Angeles Dodgers. It looks more and more likely however that Philadelphia is on a Fall Classic collision course with the New York Yankees.

In addition to sports fans in the Delaware Valley the folks at Rasmussen Reports are gearing themselves up for the World Series. A just released survey of 1,650 Major League Baseball fans nationwide was conducted on October 17-18. This came after the Phillies and Dodgers had split their first two meetings in Los Angeles and the Yankees captured a 2-0 series lead over the Los Angeles Angels.

41% expect the Yankees to win their 27th World Series this year. The Phillies and Dodgers closely split public opinion with 17% and 16% support respectively and the Angels come in at a distant fourth with just 7%. This is somewhat reflective of polls from late-August that showed 25% of fans thinking the Yankees would win the World Series against 10% who picked the Phillies, 9% who went for the Dodgers and the Angels scoring 6% of voter opinion.

Phillies fans have reason to mock such perceptions of their title chances having already overcome some negative polling in the last two seasons.

Prior to the start of the National League Championship Series unscientific polls of several dozen thousand ESPN members were evenly split on whether they believed the Phillies or Dodgers would reach the World Series. As of this morning 63% of nearly 56,000 votes cast on the ESPN website think the Phillies will win game five tonight and the NL pennant accordingly. Only in California (55%) do a majority of fans from any state side with the Dodgers chances of winning this evening. Not surprisingly Pennsylvania (87%) and Delaware (84%) are most confident for the Phillies.


The results of an Associated Press-Knowledge Networks survey conducted in late-September foresaw a Yankees-Cardinals World Series match up and the Bronx Bombers three times more likely to win a championship over either St. Louis or the Boston Red Sox. The Phillies chances were not mentioned in a follow up article on ESPN.com but the poll did offer baseball some sobering information in their battle for autumn viewership against the NFL. 41% of self-described baseball fans would rather watch a regular season NFL game than an MLB playoff match up.

In Philadelphia however there seems to be a shift in the attention and support of many local sports fans. Long known as one of the nation’s premier football towns Philly has shown hints of recent disillusionment with the Eagles just as they have gone wild for their “Fightin’ Phils”. After all the Phillies are reigning National League and World Series champions. They polished off last season’s Dodgers in five games and are hoping for a repeat performance that could conclude tonight at Citizen’s Bank Park. Their likely opponent the Yankees meanwhile are winners of twenty-six World titles and their stellar 103-59 regular season record was tops in Major League Baseball.

Rasmussen shows a closer gap in the preference baseball fans have towards the four playoff finalists. 27% are rooting for the Yankees to win the World Series, 21% for each the Phillies and Dodgers and another 18% would like to see the Angels take the title.

Harris Interactive conducted some of their own polling around this season’s All Star break. The Yankees were ranked as the most popular MLB team for the seventh straight season. Baseball should expect a boost from dreadful World Series ratings last year as both the Dodgers (fourth) and Phillies (seven) rank high on the list of most popular teams. Despite playing in the large market of Los Angeles the Angels struggle with fans nationwide, ranking just 27th out of thirty teams. Harris estimates that 41% of adults, a common theme in this article, follow Major League Baseball “somewhat” or “closely”.

The assumed Phillies-Yankees series would prove both exciting and intriguing filled with storylines that could carry well into November. While confident nearly half of Phillies fans couldn’t be termed cocky just yet. 51% of them believe their Phillies will win the World Series, but that’s a far cry from the three-quarters of Yankee fans who feel the same about their favorite club.

Poll: Palin plummets, Huckabee leads field of GOP hopefuls for 2012

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Two recent polls show a further decline in support for Sarah Palin while Mike Huckabee leads a hypothetical field of Republican candidates for President in 2012.

Sarah’s slide is a rather sudden one after several months of maintaining fairly steady numbers. The presence of the electrifying GOP upstart who joined John McCain’s Presidential ticket last year was greeted warmly by Republicans and many independents alike. Her recent struggles have been reported on by the likes of Gallup and Rasmussen Reports. In late-July Palin’s favorable ratings dropped into the negatives for the first time. Now her numbers amongst adults are mired at a 40% positive against 50% negative split, by far the worst ratings she has received since her introduction to the national stage in late-August of last year.

This is not the first time Palin has seen a dip in her popularity. Her 53% favorability rating after the 2008 Republican Convention marked a high point. It was undercut by the loss of the McCain-Palin ticket in the general election that fall which dropped her numbers to 42% according to Gallup however. Over the next seven months the now former Alaskan Governor saw her favorable and unfavorable figures run about even but this latest poll indicates a considerable spike in negative feelings toward her. While most Republicans (69%) like Sarah Palin a healthy quarter of the party holds a negative view of her. Democrats on the other hand have a strongly negative view of Palin to the tune of a 72-14% unfavorable to favorable margin. Independents meanwhile are also growing disillusion with Palin as her 41-48% favorable to unfavorable ratings atest.

Perhaps due in part to her resignation as Governor of Alaska, criticized in many circles, Palin’s decline has opened the door for other GOP hopefuls. Most notable on this list is former Arkansas Governor and current Fox TV host Mike Huckabee who ran a strong albeit losing campaign for President last year. One woman’s loss is another man’s gain according to polls from Rasmussen that show a six-point decline for Sarah Palin since July that corresponds to a seven-percent improvement for Huckabee.

Overall Huckabee leads a field of four legitimate contenders pulling in support of 29% of likely Republican voters in 2012. Mitt Romeny runs second with support of 24% of the party and Palin as previously mentioned has dropped to third at 18%. Also in the running is former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich at 14% with Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty a distant fifth contender at 4% support. Even worse for Sarah Palin are the 21% of Republicans who say they would least like to see her win the party nomination. The frontrunners Huckabee (9%) and Romney (8%) are both in the single-digits in that category of voter non-preference.

In the event that the battle for the Republican nomination shapes up to be a two-way race both Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are again sitting pretty against Sarah Palin. Romney leads Palin by fifteen-points and Huckabee scores a 55-35% blowout victory on the hypothetical ballot. While fairly irrelevant due to the unlikely scenario that she’d win the Democratic nomination away from President Obama in 2012 Rasmussen also showed Hillary Clinton holding a sizeable 51-39% advantage over Palin in late-July.

In spite of her current struggles Sarah Palin continues to be part of any conversation involving GOP contenders for the 2012 Presidential race. Her autobiography Going Rogue: An American Life is already a best seller still a month before its actual release. Palin’s approval ratings remained high in her home state of Alaska even after the broad disappointment of her resignation this summer. Republicans as a group also remain hopeful for 2012. Rasmussen indicates that 81% of voters think it at least somewhat likely one of their own will defeat President Obama for reelection. 50% think it very likely a Republican administration will move back into the White House come January of 2013.

Poll: Pennsylvania Governor and Senate races heat up

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The major races in Pennsylvania may still be a year away but things are already heating up.

Arlen Specter trails Republican challenger Pat Toomey narrowly in his reelection bid for Senate and runs just ahead of fellow Democrat Joe Sestak. Sestak and Toomey meanwhile run neck and neck for the seat in a hypothetical 2010 match up. Tom Corbett is out to a huge early lead in the Republican Gubernatorial primary meanwhile. On the other side “not sure” is the most common response leading a field of Democrats running for Governor.

This information come to us compliments of some just released polling from Rasmussen Reports tracking the preference of voters in Pennsylvania.

Republican Pat Toomey leads Senator Arlen Specter 45-40%. That’s down from a twelve-point advantage in August during the height of Specter’s town hall meetings where he often received highly publicized and harsh treatment from attendees. The Senator’s favorability is up slightly from August as well but still mired in the negatives. Currently 46% of Pennsylvanians have a favorable view of Specter while 52% hold an unfavorable view. Back in April a Rasmussen poll showed Senator trailing Pat Toomey by twenty-one percentage points in his quest to be renominated as a Republican. Many suggest his lagging poll numbers at that point contributed heavily to his party switch. Sure enough Specter runs stronger against Toomey as a Democrat than he does as a Republican.

A tight race for Senate could have been predicted but a legitimate party challenge was something Arlen Specter was hoping to avoid. However, Seventh District Congressman Joe Sestak is picking up steam in his bid to take away the Democratic nomination from the long time Senator Specter. Sestak now trails by just four-points, 46-42%. That is a considerable improvement from Rasmussen polls in August that showed Specter with a thirteen-point lead. Sestak is gaining on Specter while remaining largely unknown to voters. Just 14% hold a very favorable view of the Congressman and 8% hold a very unfavorable view against 30% of voters who don’t know enough about Sestak to offer an opinion.

Perhaps Pennsylvania Democrats are beginning to warm to Sestak’s appeal as a general election candidate. Positioning himself as the only “real Democrat” in the race Sestak is actually now leading Pat Toomey in the hypothetical race for next year’s Senate by a single point, 38-37%. An additional 19% remain unsure but expect that number to shrink as voters learn more about both candidates.

Moving our attention to the race for Governor a scattered field of Democrats compete against one another while the Republicans have a clear favorite. A whopping 37% of Democratic Primary voters are not sure who they plan to support in 2010. Rasmussen’s sample size is quite low polling just 469-likely voters but the results point to a cluttered field of at least five candidates; Dan Onorato (19%), Jack Wagner (14%), Joe Hoeffel (11%), Chris Doherty (6%) and Tom Knox (4%). When combined these five candidates attract only 54% of current voter preference, while one in ten Pennsylvania Democrats also prefer some other candidate.

There is far more clarity on the Republican side of the coin. State Attorney General Tom Corbett continues to hold a vast lead over Congressman Jim Gerlach for the GOP nomination, 54-10%. A sizeable 30% of Republican voters aren’t sure of their preference but Corbett’s lead even in these early stages may prove difficult for Gerlach to overcome. On the personal front 28% of Pennsylvania Republicans hold a very favorable view of Corbett against just 1% who do not. Gerlach meanwhile suffers from lack of name recognition with 37% of primary voters uncertain of what they think about the candidate against 21% who do not hold a strong opinion of Corbett.

Poll: New Jersey Governor's race now a toss-up

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After many months of trailing in the polls Governor Jon Corzine has essentially caught up.

With just weeks to go in the race for New Jersey Governor the incumbent Democrat has been thrust into a virtual toss-up against Republican challenger Chris Christie. These are latest findings from both Quinnipiac and Rasmussen measuring the preference of likely voters in the Garden State.

As reported here two weeks ago in conjunction with Quinnipiac’s previous survey Christie’s lead had shrunk to four-points, 43-39%. Now the latest poll finds a statistically insignificant one-percentage point lead for the Republican challenger, 41-40%. At 14% New Jersey voters are also recording their highest level of preference yet for independent candidate Christopher Daggett.

Months of attack ads and the historical nature of New Jersey politics that generally finds Democratic candidates doing well down the stretch has no doubt boosted the embattled Governor in the polls. Rasmussen still has Christie leading the race 47-44% but the three-point spread is now within the margin of error and down from a seven-point Corzine deficit just two weeks ago.

It's still a nail-biter. Christopher Christie has never given up the lead,
but it's been getting slimmer and now it's a dead heat -- Maurice Carroll,
director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Negative perceptions of either major candidate persist. Governor Corzine is viewed unfavorably by 52% in New Jersey and favorably by just 45%. Chris Christie meanwhile does not fair much better with a 46-50% favorable to unfavorable split. 21% of Garden State voters say they would at least consider voting for third-party challenger Daggett at this point and a third of the electorate remains either undecided or willing to change their mind before Election Day, November 3rd.

The largest lead for Republican challenger Christie came back on July 14th when he measured a nine-point edge according to Quinnipiac. 27% of responders in that survey also claim they may change their mind on which candidate to support before entering the voting booth. The perception that Christopher Daggett may play a spoiler role in this race is evident by the 40-33% margin of current Daggett supporters who would otherwise have voted for Christie in a two-way race against Governor Corzine.

Chris Christie’s unfavorable rating now at 40% represents a new high according to the Quinnipiac poll. Jon Corzine fairs even worse with New Jersey voters with a 53% unfavorable but his 40% favorable is at a three-month high and up six-percentage points from September 30th. A clear majority of voters continue to disapprove of the way Corzine is handling his job as Governor but his numbers have improved somewhat in that area as well. Currently the Governor has a 39-56% approval to disapproval rating up modestly from a 34-60% split at the beginning of September.

One specific issue where Chris Christie may be losing ground is on taxes. While New Jersey voters have shown a preference towards the Republican challenger in this area throughout the campaign a plurality (35%) believe their taxes will go up even if he is elected. Governor Corzine struggles on this issue with 62% of voters believing their taxes will increase. With a sizable number of voters thinking things will stay about the same however, the key wedge issue Christie was aiming for may be rendered irrelevant.

Stay tuned for the exciting final twenty-days of polling from the New Jersey Gubernatorial campaign and see just how accurate the constant surveying proves to be.

Poll: Both Democrats and Republicans struggling on issues, public perception

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While known mostly for their regional coverage Quinnipiac’s latest survey focuses on the opinions of voters nationwide.

The key aspects from their recent polling over the weekend find President Obama’s approval rating and the percentage of public support for health care reform starting to settle in with a measure of consistency. Congress is heavily disapproved of with both Democrats and Republican representatives viewed in an increasingly negative light.

Below are ten highlights from the Quinnipiac survey of 2,630 registered adults nationwide.

1) President Obama’s approval rating holds steady from two months ago

In early August President Obama’s approval rating dropped seven-percentage points and his unfavorables by nine-percent. It was the start of a downward slide for the President but we now see two months of intense policy debate leveling his numbers somewhat. Currently 50% of registered adults nationwide approve of his job performance against 41% who do not. These figures are essentially unchanged from two months ago and include 82% of approving Democrats, 77% opposition from Republicans and a narrow 45-44% approval to disapproval split with independents.

2) Democrats in Congress see shrinking support from voters

With virtually all polls showing heavy dissatisfaction with Congress as a whole the majority party continues to struggle in the eyes of voters. Just 33% now approve of the way Democrats are handling their job, a modest two-point drop from early-August and a decline of twelve-points from early-March. At 56% negatives are also at a recent high for Congress since March. Just 8% of Republicans and 27% of independents approve of their job performance with even many Democrats (27%) showing dissatisfaction.

3) Congressional Republicans are viewed even worse by the public

The news is bad for the Democrats inching closer to a midterm election a little over a year away. Their situation seems less dire however considering the unpopularity of their opposition party. Republicans actually score eight-points lower in their Congressional approval ratings dropping to just 25%. This marks a four-point decrease from August all the while the number of those disapproving has jumped to a seven month high of 64%. Democrats and independents offer just 14% and 21% support respectively but it’s Republicans at an approval margin of 49-42% approval that is particularly notable.

4) Americans increasingly dissatisfied with the way things are going, economy top issue

There is a steady increase in the number of Americans who are dissatisfied with the way things are going. While not record low numbers just 3% claim to be very satisfied and 27% are somewhat satisfied. 38% meanwhile are very dissatisfied with 31% at least somewhat dissatisfied. Down from November of last year but still the top issue with voters is the economy at 42% - jobs in particular come in at 22%. Health care has risen from a modest concern with voters to a significant issue now at a record high of 18%

5) Slight improvement for President Obama in his handling of the economy

President Obama finds his approval rating for handling the overall economy under 50% for the second straight survey. Still it marks a modest improvement from Quinnipiac’s last poll in August. Currently 47% of the country approves of how he is handling economic matters against 46% who do not. That’s up from a 45-49% margin recorded two months ago but still down considerably from a 57-33% approval to disapproval split in March. Just 40% of independents and 15% of Republicans approve of the President in this area.

6) Modest bounce for Obama with health care, most still disapprove

After several months of pushing his top domestic priority President Obama has seen a modest payoff in the polls of his handling of health care. Still mired in the negatives Obama’s approval rating in this area has increased to 41% against 51% who continue to disapprove. That’s up from a 39-52% split recorded in early-August but still down from a 46-42% positive margin in early-July. Just 36% of a key group of independent voters approve of the President’s performance in handling health care. Political moderates are back in a 47-44% positive margin, but conservatives are heavily negative toward Obama with only 18% approving of his leadership on the issue.

7) President Obama’s health care reform plan still opposed by a plurality of Americans

40% of Americans are in favor with the health care reform proposals initiated by President Obama, 47% are opposed. This total includes 71% of Democrats but just 35% of independents and 9% of Republicans. Women are evenly split on the President’s plan (43-43%) but a majority of men (52%) remain opposed. Young voters 18-34 approve of the plan by a 47-42% margin but those over the age of 35 are only around 39% in favor. 71% of liberals against just 17% of conservatives are in favor of the President’s health care plan and there is also a large disparity between race with 79% of African Americans compared with just 33% of whites approving.

8) President Obama supported more than Republicans in Congress on health care

Asked who is doing a better job handling health care 47% of the voting public sides with President Obama against just 31% who favor the Republicans in Congress. This is a modest bump from August when the President was favored over the GOP by a margin of 46-37%. A fairly large 21% of population remains uncertain over who they side with more. Not surprisingly the support for either party remains a highly partisan issue. Just 5% of Democrats support the Republicans in congress and just 9% of Republican voters side with President Obama. Independents show a preference towards the President by a margin of 41-30%.

9) Most Americans in favor of a government plan to compete with private insurers

Holding steady from polls taken two months ago a clear majority of Americans support being given the option of coverage from a government health insurance plan that would compete with private plans. 61% favor that plan with 34% against the option. These totals are similar to Quinnipiac’s early-August survey that showed 62% of Americans supporting and 32% opposed to a government run plan. 36% of Republicans support the measure with a significant majority of independents (59%) and the vast majority of Democrats (81%) supportive of competition from the government.

10) Democrats favorability drops, still hire than sluggish figures for the GOP

Just 38% of American voters have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party according to the Quinnipiac survey. 46% now have unfavorable opinion of the party with both figures dropping and increasing by four-percentage points respectively since early-August. The Republican Party is in even worse shape with the electorate as just 25% have a favorable opinion of them and 53% hold unfavorable opinion. Just 9% of Republicans approve of the Democratic Party and just 8% of Democrats find the GOP favorable. 29% of independents give the Democrats a favorable rating and that number drops to a dismal 19% when asked the same about the Republican Party.

Poll: Support for stricter gun laws is dwindling

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It’s a good day for the NRA and gun rights activists. Two recent polls from Rasmussen and Gallup indicate that Americans increasingly oppose stricter gun laws.

Rasmussen Reports in a survey conducted earlier this week shows that 39% of Americans want stricter gun laws against 50% who are opposed to such a measure. Previous surveys suggested that citizens were narrowly divided on the topic making the new margin of eleven-percentage points noteworthy. Women continue to be evenly divided on the topic but men oppose stricter laws by 23%. Nearly two-thirds of Democrats (65%) are in favor of tighter restrictions but 69% of Republicans and 62% of those unaffiliated feel differently.

71% of Americans believe the second amendment to the U.S. constitution guarantees their right to bear arms. Just 13% believe the constitution does not make gun ownership the right of the average citizen. Nearly seven in ten Americans (69%) also do not believe that city government’s have the right to prevent their citizens from owning guns with 52% of Democrats in agreement, 72% of unaffiliateds and 87% of Republicans.

The loudest shot fired comes from a Gallup poll released just this morning. According to the survey a new low of just 44% of Americans say that laws covering firearm sales should be stricter. That total is down from 49% earlier this year and indicates a steady decline from its peak in 1990 when 78% of the public favored stricter laws against firearm sales. That peak perhaps coincided with the steadily growing number of handgun related deaths in the United States in the early-90s. By late-1992 the number had grown to a record high of nearly 14,000. By 2001 the number had been reduced to around 8,000 with only a minor spike in that total in the years since.

Gallup also shows for the first time the number of those who want laws covering the sale of firearms more strict is nearly identical to the 43% of Americans who want to keep laws as they are now. There is also a small spike in the number of those who would like to see current laws become less strict (12%), up from just 2% in 1990
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Also at a record low are the numbers of adults who want a ban on the possession of hand guns from use in the general public. Just 28% agree with that stance, down from 40% ten years ago and from a whopping 60% since Gallup first began tracking responses to the question back in 1959. In terms of gun ownership the numbers throughout the 2000s remain relatively stable. Currently 42% live in a household with a gun and 29% specifically have a gun of their own. These totals are up slightly from 2001 when 41% and 27% respectively reported the same.

What is more significant is the across the board decline by subgroup in the number of those wanting more strict gun laws. The largest comes from college graduates, political independents and nonwhites racially at 23%, the smallest from 50-64 year olds at 5%. Currently just 1/3rd of men against 55% of women want stricter gun laws according to Gallup. 67% of self described liberals and 66% of Democrats wants stricter laws against just 30% and 28% of conservatives and Republicans. Independents and moderates are also shrinking in their resistance coming in at 38% and 48% respectively. Interestingly there is little difference by age with all groups measuring from 44-48% in their preference for more strict laws on guns.

As they begin a new term today the Supreme Court will look at cases involving the second amendment of the constitution and whether it supersedes state and local anti-gun laws. Last June the Supreme Court upheld the constitutional amendment when it revoked the District of Columbia’s ban on handguns despite the city having one of the highest violent crime rates in the nation. President Obama’s gun record is highly debatable as well. He has been quoted as saying he respects the second amendment but also local bans on handguns as determined by individual states and cities.

Poll: Opposition to health care reform drops, Americans still divided

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The slowly beating heart of health care reform just received a shot of adrenaline from three new polls released this week. While it’s too soon to suggest that the Democratic proposals for reform have rebounded to the point of a full upward climb this recent bounce tracked by no less than three major pollsters is noteworthy.

This morning the new AP-GFK survey shows that an even number of Americans (40-40%) supporting and opposing the health care reform plans being discussed by Congress. This is a rather dramatic improvement from a month ago when that same survey indicated that just 34% supported the plan against 49% who were opposed. Rasmussen Reports mirrors those findings tracking the issue weekly. While still in the negative the 46% of those favoring and 50% of those opposed is up from a 41-56% low point measured just a week and a half ago.

Past Gallup surveys have tended to show less resistance from the American public toward President Obama and Congressional Democrats’ reform proposals. Still there is a modest bounce even from their last poll on the topic. Asking adults whether they’d recommend their local representative vote for a reform bill 40% are shown to be in favor against 36% who are now opposed and 25% without an opinion. This is up modestly from a 38-40-22% split measured three weeks earlier. When party “leaners” are taking into consideration opposition to health care reform is now firmly in the minority with just 41% saying they would tell their representatives to vote against and 51% favoring a “yay” vote.

Moving the attention back to the AP-GFK survey, 46% of Americans now claim health care to be an extremely important issue. For President Obama there has been an improvement as well. Obama gets the first positive marks he has received on his handling of the issue since mid-July with 48% approving against 47% who still disapprove. The elderly in particular have shown a marked increase in their support for a plan, up sixteen-points from the last AP poll.

Americans seem to have conflicting opinions when it comes to the necessity of bipartisan cooperation between the two major parties on the issue. Up six-points from a month ago 62% think a bill supported by both Democrats and Republicans in Congress is important. Also up six-points from a month ago however are the number of those (34%) who think President Obama and Democrats should move ahead in their desire to pass a bill even without Republican support.

The divide between parties is still as evident as it has been in recent surveys. Gallup indicates that 66% of Democrats would advise their member of congress to vote for a bill but just 16% of Republicans would do the same. According to Rasmussen 78% of Democrats favor a the new plan but that number is essentially flipped with eight in ten Republicans opposed to the reform bill. Both polls show considerably more political independents opposed to health care reform than in favor of it meaning President Obama and his allies in Congress still have a long way to go on the issue.

Poll: Senate races, swine flu & the latest from Pennsylvania & New Jersey

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In conjunction with recent survey results from Quinnipiac we again take a look at some of latest data coming in from Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

As reported last week Pennsylvanians show continued displeasure with both Governor Rendell and the state legislature over the recently resolved budget impasse. In New Jersey some of the more notable findings indicated a narrowing race for Governor between incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine and GOP upstart Chris Christie. For this most recent round of survey data we take a look at Pennsylvania’s 2010 Senate race, President Obama’s popularity in the Keystone State and the impact of swine flu hysteria in New Jersey. Below is a list of ten highlights from the two recent Quinnipiac polls.

1) Specter and Toomey in virtual dead-heat for second straight poll

Just as it was in late-July the race for Pennsylvania Senate a little over a year from remains essentially even. In July presumptive Democratic nominee Arlen Specter was leading Republican Pat Toomey 45-44%. Now in early-October those numbers have flip flopped to 43-42% in favor of Toomey with an increasing number (13%) of those undecided. Both candidates are pulling in only modest numbers from the opposition party’s voters as Specter earns just 12% of Republicans and Toomey pulling in 14% of Democratic support. Few Republican voters have decided to stick with Specter in spite of his former standing as a long time GOP Senator. Many Democrats meanwhile remain leery of their new member as well.

2) Possible race between Toomey and Sestak also remains a tight affair

Pat Toomey is bound to have a heated race on his hands regardless of his Democratic opposition next fall. If Congressman Joe Sestak can somehow upset Arlen Specter in the primary battle early-Quinnipiac polling suggests he will be thrust into a tight race with Toomey. The Republican nominee currently holds a narrow 38-35% lead over Sestak, down a single point from polling in late-July. Sestak meanwhile is making up ground on Specter amongst Democrats. Last month the longtime Senator Specter still had a large 55-23% lead on second-term Congressman Sestak. This month however Sestak has caught up some now trailing by a 44-25% margin with a large number of registered Pennsylvania Democrats (28%) still undecided.

3) Specter battling increasingly unfavorable opinion; Sestak and Toomey still unknown

Senator Arlen Specter’s favorability ratings in Pennsylvania continue to drop since his party switch. Currently his 42-46% favorable to unfavorable split drops the Senator into the negatives for the first time in recent memory. In November of last year Specter was pulling in a 56% favorable and as of late-July he struggled just above the divide with a 45-44% margin. 62% of the Philadelphia area still likes Senator Specter but central-Pennsylvania, a former stronghold for the former Republican, is down to just a 33% favorable. Pat Toomey meanwhile still goes unrecognized by a majority of Pa. voters. He holds a positive 34-12% favorable but 53% still haven’t heard enough about the candidate. Ditto that Joe Sestak who is viewed positively by those that know him, but seven in ten have not heard enough to have an opinion either way.

4) Senator Bob Casey continues to earn positive marks from Pennsylvanians

Elected during the Democrats’ blowout win in the 2006 midterms Bob Casey continues to hold on to a mostly favorable electorate of his job performance. Since late-March his approval has stayed between 52-56% currently settling in at 53%. One negative however is the Senator’s disapproval that is at a new high of 29%, up four-points from late-July and eight-points from May. Still Casey has a positive to negative approval split of 24-points and has to feel comfortable in what have been tough times recently for incumbent Democrats. Casey’s term will not end until 2013 meaning he has over three years before his next race will coincide with the 2012 Presidential election.

5) President Obama’s approval rating falls to a new low in Pennsylvania

Most national polls have been tracking President Obama’s approval rating at a fairly steady low-50s percentile over the past two or three months. In Pennsylvania however, one of America’s key battleground states and where he won by better than ten-percentage points last fall, Obama now drops below 50% for the first time. Currently a plurality of voters (49-42%) approve of the way the President is handling his job, a seven-point drop from late-July and down 14% from Quinnipiac’s first tracking poll in mid-February. The President pulls in an approval of 81% with Democrats and 50% of independents, but just 17% of Republicans approve. He is viewed positively by 68% of those residing in the Philadelphia area but struggles in the central and western portions of the state.

6) More Pennsylvanians disapprove than approve of Obama’s handling of the economy

In addition to his overall drop in approval numbers one of the major decreases since early this year comes in the form of the national economy. Currently just 46% of Pennsylvanians approve of how the President is handling the economy against 47% who disapprove. That is the first time we have seen more voters in the Keystone State disapprove than approve of the President on the issue. Obama’s high point came in February when 59% of Pennsylvania voters approved of his handling of the economy but that dropped to 50% in late-July and now just 46% in October. Just 18% of Republicans and 45% of independents approve of his economic leadership.

7) President Obama struggles on the issue of health care

With the President falling below 50% in his overall approval rating in the state of Pennsylvania an unsurprising number of those critical are showing up in the areas of economy and health care. Obama and Democrats in Congress continue to struggle on the issue of health care both nationally and in Pennsylvania. Currently just 39% of Pennsylvanians approve against 53% who disapprove of the President’s overall handling of health care. In terms of his reform plan there is a 41-47% support to opposition split in the Keystone State which is fairly consistent with national figures. Support for the plan ranges widely by region. 69% in the Philly-area are on board with the President’s reform plans against just 28% of those living in the northwest region of the state.

8) Few in New Jersey “very” worried about swine flu. More elders than young concerned.

Just ten-percent of those residing in the Garden State claim to be “very worried” about the chances that they or someone in their family will get swine flu. Overall 41% are at least somewhat worried however against 58% of voters who either are not very worried or not too worried at all. Democrats and Republicans are equally fearful of the flu (42%) with men more uncomfortable than women (46-36%) at the potential of getting sick. Those between the ages of 35-54 and elders over 55 are nearly identical in their fears of the swine flu (44-45%), whereas younger adults aged 18-34 show only passing concern (30%) overall. 17% of lower income families meanwhile are understandably quite worried about the possibility of contracting the swine flu.

9) Less than half will get swine flu vaccination, but most will do so for their children

According to the Quinnipiac poll slightly more folks in New Jersey do not plan to get a swine flu vaccination than those who have or will. 46% suggest they will get a shot compared to 48% who will not bother to do so. Adults are more concerned about their children than themselves regarding this issue. 55% plan on getting their kids the vaccination against 33% who do not plan to do so. Interestingly independents are considerably less likely (41%) than Democrats (48%) or Republicans (47%) to get the flu shot. When it comes to their children those numbers are a bit more consistent with 52% of independents, and 56% of both Democrats and Republicans on board with getting their kids vaccinated.

10) Most think swine flu hysteria overblown but agree government reaction is justified

Many in New Jersey are skeptical that the news media is giving a fair assessment on their reporting on the swine flu. 36% believe the overall media reaction to be justified but 59% think it to be overblown. More young voters believe swine flu coverage to be more hype than fact (65%) than do the elderly (55%), with more Democrats (41%) than Republicans (31%) thinking the coverage to be justified. On the flip side most agree with the government’s reaction to swine flu. 58% suggest that concern by the government at its current level to be justified with only 36% considering it overblown. This includes 41% of Republicans who feel it to be overblown, 37% of independents and 30% of Democrats agreeing with that assessment.

Poll: Castle slightly ahead of Biden in possible Delaware Senate showdown

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As the buildup to the impending 2010 elections continues we take a trip this time to the Pennsylvania’s neighbor to the south, the First State of Delaware.

What Delaware lacks in size and brand name appeal nationally it could more than make up for in political drama. Two high profile candidates stand out in the early stages of the state's Senatorial race next fall. Attorney General Beau Biden, son of sitting Vice President Joe Biden pitted against Republican Mike Castle, a former two-term Governor and the longest serving representative in Delaware history. Both would-be candidates could challenge for the vacant seat left by VP Biden who served 36-years as a Senator from the First State.

For the moment it is Castle leading the younger Biden 47-42% in the hypothetical race according to a recent survey conducted by Rasmussen Reports. The big question at this point however is if in fact the seventy year old Mike Castle would choose to run for a Senate position next fall. Early polling suggests that Castle dominates with men (25-point lead) and struggles somewhat with women (13-point deficit) against Biden. If Castle elects not to run however the dynamic of the race changes considerably.

Christine O’Donnell, the one declared GOP candidate finds herself in a nine-point hole (49-40%) against Biden according to Rasmussen, whereas a number of Delaware voters (8%) remain uncertain about either candidate. O’Donnell will likely need to play better with her own gender to make a race of it as she currently trails Biden by 27-points amongst women.

Regardless of the opposition Biden will surely pull out all stops to secure the Senate seat, perhaps piggybacking off of the national success of his father who helped President Obama to a record landslide victory in Delaware last November. As pointed out in an Associated Press article Beau Biden never the less faces challenges stemming from agency missteps that led to the dropped charges against a man accused of killing a local college student. He also finds a PR hurdle to overcome in the drawn out and unsuccessful legal battle against NCAA and professional sports leagues over Delaware’s new betting lottery.

Last November Joe Biden crushed Christine O’Donnell securing 65% of the popular as he was campaigning for Vice President. Ted Kauffman a longtime Biden aide was appointed by then Governor Ruth Ann Minner for an interum stay of two-years as Senator. Kauffman has publicly stated that he will not seek the office after his term ends in January of 2011. This means a special election is to be held in November of next year to decide who will take over for the last four-years of Biden’s term.

Beau Biden who just finished a year-long deployment to Iraq for National Guard duty technically has not declared his candidacy for the Senate seat. Wide speculation and assumption surround the Attorney General however who currently holds a 26-12% favorable to unfavorable rating amongst Delaware voters. Castle’s positive margin is a slightly more modest 25-15% with O’Donnell, a marketing consultant and political commentator, lingering behind both at a 14-15% split.

Some other polling conducted by Rasmussen shows that Delaware residents are almost evenly split on the issue of health care reform. 48% are in favor of the Democratic plan with 49% opposed. Just 8% rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent with 44% considering it poor. Another 31% think the national economy is improving while 42% see it as getting worse. These negative feelings are not reflected in President Obama’s individual approving rating or Jack Markell’s job performance as Governor however. Obama holds a 54% approval rating with 45% disapproving of his performance as President. Markell meanwhile is viewed positively overall by those in the First State to the tune of a 59-37% approval to disapproval split.