Poll: Phillies rule South Jersey but the Yankees are most popular team in the Garden State

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When it comes to the world of sports the Garden is classic battleground territory. A recent poll from Quinnipiac of 1,650 New Jersey residents finds a state high on the Yankees and positively wild for the Super Bowl.

Without a team to call their own the millions of baseball fans in New Jersey typically split their allegiance between the two clubs in New York City and the Philadelphia Phillies. 55% of the state claims to be at least somewhat interested in the sport and 47% of that group list the Yankees as their favorite MLB team. That’s over twice as many as those who root hardest for the Mets (21%) and Phillies (20%). Nearly nine in ten (88%) New Jersey baseball fans rank at least one of the three teams from large markets bordering their state to the northeast and southwest as their favorite.

These most recent findings are similar to what Quinnipiac found a year ago when a 2003 Sports Illustrated survey of fans from around the country including New Jersey. That poll found the Yankees attracting 44% of the vote for most popular baseball team in the Garden. The Mets were at 23% and the Phillies at 15%. The Bronx Bombers were in the midst of another run to the World Series that season whereas the Mets were in the midst of a last place finish in the NL East, all the while the Phillies posted a solid 86-76 record.

Despite the overwhelming affection for the Yankees over all other competition passions for baseball in New Jersey are regionally divided. Asked who’d they like to see win the World Series this season the Yankees came out on top of the Phillies by a 55-28% margin. Not surprisingly the Bronx Bombers dominate northern Jersey by 71-12% over the Phillies. In South Jersey however it’s neighboring Philadelphia that gets more love by a margin of 63-25%. Central Jersey meanwhile swings heavily for the Yankees again to the tune of 58-22% over their World Series opponent from 2009.

Baseball is popular in the Garden but more residents (65%) claim to be somewhat or very interested in the National Football League. The Giants and Jets while claiming “New York” in their title will christen a brand new stadium in East Rutherford this upcoming 2010 season. 80% of pro-football fans in New Jersey like the idea of the Meadowlands hosting the Super Bowl in 2014. Nine in ten (90%) meanwhile consider having the NFL’s championship game at the home of the Giants and Jets to be a “good thing” for the state of New Jersey.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Seth Wenig

Poll: Republican candidates lead Democratic rivals in two key races in Pennsylvania

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As a number of states prepare to vote in what could be crucial primaries today two news surveys from Rasmussen Reports show Republicans fairing quite well in Pennsylvania.

In the race for Senate Republican Pat Toomey is now shown as leading recently nominated Democrat Joe Sestak 45-38%. This is a turnaround from polling two-weeks ago that showed Sestak carrying a modest four-point lead bolstered by his primary defeat of longtime Senator Arlen Specter. The post-victory bounce has appeared to dissipate rather quickly for the sitting congressman however and Toomey, who led both would-be Democrats for most of the year, is back out in front.

The good news for Sestak comes in the 19% of undecided Democratic voters. Only 7% of Republicans can’t choose between Toomey, Sestak or a third-party candidate at this juncture. Overall 12% of Pennsylvanians are uncertain of any candidate perhaps affording Sestak the opportunity to both tie up some loose ends within his own party and court those crucial undecideds.

Health care remains a divisive issue in Pennsylvania as it does nationally. 56% of Keystone State voters support the repeal of health care reform legislation against 38% who oppose such a measure. Eight out of ten (80%) of those electing to keep the status quo not surprisingly favor Sestak and a virtually identical percentage (81%) of those pushing for its retraction side with Toomey. Overall Sestak splits the opinion of voters with strong feelings about him. 16% of Pennsylvania voters hold a very favorable view of the congressman against 16% who view him very unfavorably. Pat Toomey scores a bit better to the tune of a 21-13% very favorable to very unfavorable margin.

In the race for Governor Republican State Attorney General Tom Corbett leads Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato by sixteen-points. The 49-33% lead for Corbett also includes 13% of Pennsylvania voters who aren’t sure of a candidate preference and 5% who prefer someone else besides the two front runners. The dynamics of this race remain relatively unchanged from last month when Rasmussen polling showed Corbett with a thirteen-point lead and drawing 49% support overall.

Corbett’s reputation as a popular politician in the Keystone State is also confirmed by the number of those holding strong opinions of him. 27% of voters view him very favorably against just 11% who see him very unfavorably. Onorato meanwhile is divided by a far more modest margin of 14-10%.

Both men look to succeed sitting two-term Governor and former Philadelphia Mayor Ed Rendell who has been struggling with subpar approval ratings for over a year. Currently Rendell is approved of by 44% of Pennsylvanians. President Obama meanwhile scores a 48% approval rating in the state, a percentage more or less in line with his current standing nationally.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Keith Srakocic

Analysis: Lackluster approval ratings after first 500-days can be overcome, history shows

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Depending on which poll you reference President Obama’s approval ratings have seemingly been locked into place for several months now.

Typically in the 45-50% range the President has suffered through a prolonged stretch of mediocre popularity ever since the health care issue became a central focus last summer. Many are quick to suggest that the path to reelection for Obama is likely to be steep and treacherous. According at least to one reputable pollster however the effect of a President’s popularity less than a year and a half into their first term serves as little to no barometer in assessing their chances for reelection.

According to Gallup President Obama’s approval rating for the week ending May 30th reached a new low of 46%. It has since rebounded some, currently situated at 50% as of yesterday, June 2nd. While these figures are fairly moribund by most standards when comparing them to the popularity of Commander in Chief’s at the same point in their respective Presidencies a mixed bag of evidence appears.

Gallup compared the historical approval ratings of President Obama and his eleven most recent processors who resided in the White House dating back to Harry Truman. Seven of the eleven were either reelected or won their own term while serving as President due to their assumed role to the position following a death in office. Two other Presidents (Jimmy Cater, George H.W. Bush) were defeated for reelection. Gerald Ford was also defeated running for his own term as sitting President after serving out the final two and half years of Richard Nixon’s second-term ended abruptly by scandal and resignation. The assassination of John F. Kennedy meanwhile cut short his Presidency after only 34-months.

President Obama has reached his 500th day as the nation’s 44th President. Here is a list of where the other aforementioned Commander’s in Chief stood at the same point in their Presidencies;

44) Barack Obama – 46%
43) George W. Bush – 70%
42) Bill Clinton – 46%
41) George H.W. Bush – 67%
40) Ronald Reagan – 45%
39) Jimmy Carter – 44%
38) Gerald Ford – 46%
37) Richard Nixon – 55%
36) Lyndon Johnson – 67%
35) John F. Kennedy – 71%
34) Dwight Eisenhower – 62%
33) Harry Truman – 33%

The overall 500-day average between the eleven most recent Presidents of 59% means that Barack Obama lingers well behind the statistical norm. A deeper look however reveals that such a figure is bereft of much substance at least in terms of what it means for the overall life of a Presidency.

Five other Presidents; Harry Truman, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton also had approval ratings at 46% or worse 500-days into their terms. While Carter and Ford failed to win in the next election Bill Clinton won easily in 1996 and Reagan did so in a landslide in 1984. Harry Truman on the other hand had carried lifeless approval ratings for much of his first term but never the less staged one of the most improbable political upsets in American history in 1948.

On the other hand strong approval ratings early into a Presidency serve as no guarantee for future success. George H.W. Bush lost convincingly to Bill Clinton in 1992 despite carrying impressive approval ratings of 67% into the middle of 1990. His son George W. meanwhile only narrowly won reelection in 2004 despite a 9/11 bolstered approval rating of 70% in June of 2002. Bush would end up leaving office in January of 2009 with some of the worst approval ratings for a President in history.

Lyndon Johnson was already in the midst of his first full term as President having won in a landslide in 1964. Yet his impressive popularity 500-days into office did not translate well down the road. Johnson’s approval would fall into the low-40 percentiles by late-1967 as the controversial Vietnam War engulfed his Presidency and overshadowed his domestic achievements. Johnson won with over 61% of the popular vote in 1964 but found the political landscape too treacherous to navigate and chose not to run for reelection four years later.

Then again not all examples of high popularity early into a Presidency are a fluke. Dwight Eisenhower was consistently well liked over his eight years in office and won reelection in a landslide in 1956. Richard Nixon may have left the White House in disgrace but his approval rating of 55% at day number 500 paved the way for an historic landslide victory over his Democratic rival in 1972. We’ll never know what political fate was held in store for John F. Kennedy’s first term. His approval ratings of 71% as of June, 1962 and 58% upon his death in November, 1963 however made a second-term appear imminent had it not been felled by an assassins bullet.

As it stands as of this morning President Obama has an overall first-term approval rating of nearly 55%. While his level of popularity in recent months has clearly diminished Obama supporters need to look back no further than the previous Democratic President for inspiration. Bill Clinton’s 46% approval rating according to Gallup matches that of Obama’s 500-days into their Presidencies. Furthermore Clinton won reelection by eight and a half percentage-points despite posting an overall first-term approval of just 49.6%.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / CHARLES DHARAPAK