Poll: Support for same-sex marriage now the majority viewpoint?

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As the battle to uphold or repeal California’s Proposition 8 law rages on in court same sex couples and gay marriage advocates have some reason to rejoice.

For the first time on record a major poll now shows a narrow majority of American voters in favor of allowing gay and lesbian couples the constitutional right to wed. The recent survey conducted by CNN / Opinion Research of 935-registered voters shows that by a margin of 52-46% most believe gays and lesbians have both the constitutional right to get married and have their marriage recognized by law.

In truth these figures were culled from a smaller sample of 496-voters within the overall pool of those surveyed and a substantial margin of error (+/- 4.5%) needs to be considered. Another smaller sample of 513-voters within the broader survey was also asked the question with slightly different language. The word “should” was omitted in favor of emphasizing the “have” in a question regarding the legal marriage rights of same-sex couples. Yet even here nearly half of responders (49%) favored the constitutionality of gay marriage. Combining the scores the CNN polls finds that a small majority of American voters (50.5%) now support the legal right for same-sex marriage against those (48.5%) who do not.

The CNN survey could be hailed as something of a public opinion landmark for gay-rights advocates in their long struggle for full equality under law. Most polls in recent years have shown growing social acceptance of homosexuals in society and culture but in terms of legally recognizing their right to marry it has always stopped short of reaching majority levels.

Gallup polled adults on the topic in May of this year and found support vs. opposition for same-sex marriage still lingered at just 44-53%. In April a CBS / New York Times poll found that 39% of American adults favored granted gay couple the right to marry but a majority either preferred the status of civil unions (24%), or chose to grant no legal recognition whatsoever (30%). ABC News / Washington Post data from February showed a modest 50-47% divide between the number of those opposed to and supporting gay marriage. Last October meanwhile NBC News / Wall Street Journal found 41% of the public strongly or somewhat in favor of same-sex marriage and 49% against.

It will be interesting to see what sort of influence the Proposition 8 battle has on the current levels of support. Are more people tuning in to the debate and expressing greater support for same-sex marriage rights because of the highly publicized court case? And will these numbers settle back in to their recently typical levels of support in the low to mid-40 percentiles once the debate passes? Additionally is the general status quo being echoed by other recent polls that show support for same-sex marriage as still a minority viewpoint and this most recent CNN poll as little more than statistical noise? Or is this new poll simply the first of many to reveal the facts of a growing trend?

More polling is needed to confirm the growing levels of support collected here by CNN / Opinion Research as legitimate. Meanwhile the country focuses on California’s struggle to either uphold the sanctity of traditional marriage or to clear the way for legal recognition of all couples. Same-sex marriage is currently granted by five states (Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Connecticut) and the District of Columbia. It is also recognized but not legally performed in the states of New York, Maryland and Rhode Island.

PHOTO CREDIT: GETTY IMAGES / JUSTIN SULLIVAN

Poll: Obama's approval rating declines in 49-states over first half of 2010

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Whatever the latest round of news, positive or negative may be, President Obama’s national approval rating has held seemingly steady for many months now. However consistent his standing with the American public is at large, when viewed at a state by state level there are wildly divergent opinions on the performance of the Commander in Chief.

According to Gallup, and most other pollsters, the President’s approval rating has been locked in the 45-50% range since early last fall when interest the health care debate peaked and Obama’s popularity dipped. Currently Gallup pegs the President with a 49% approval and 44% disapproval, but his ratings differ greatly between certain states and regions.

The overall picture is that of a Presidency trending downward in recent months. Obama’s 49% approval rating for the first half of 2010 is a considerable drop off from the 57% he enjoyed through the first six months of 2009. Still the President enjoys high levels of support from certain pockets of the country. States that Obama won by the widest of margins in the 2008 election continue, not surprisingly, to be the states where the President has the largest number of supporters. Gallup surveyed nearly 91,000 residents in all fifty states including 4,671 in Pennsylvania as part of their mid-year “State of the States” series.

Obama won 92.5% of the popular vote in Washington D.C. and the nation's capital remains strongest in support for the President with 85% of its residence approving of his job performance. With nearly 72% of the popular vote take in 2008 Hawaii was Obama’s second most supportive state. Hawaii remains strong with Obama to this day with 68% of responders approving of his Presidency. In total there are sixteen states that continue to deliver the President with a better than 50% approval rating and another fifteen where that approval ratings exceeds his disapproval. That is however down considerably from the second half of 2009 when Gallup’s previous study indicated all but nine states at over a 50% approval for Obama and only Idaho and Wyoming with a higher disapproval than approval rating for the President.

The downward trend for the administration in recent months does not shift the overall picture however. Of the 28-states (including Washington D.C.) that went for Obama in November, 2008 almost all rank as the President’s 27 most supportive in mid-2010. In each instance the President pulls in a positive net approval rating and stands at least 47%. The one exception is in the battleground state of New Hampshire where Obama has cratered to a 41-52% approval to disapproval margin. The “Granite State” has long been viewed as something of a political outsider in the largely liberal New England so its negative views of the President’s job performance while eye opening are not exactly shocking revelations.

Obama’s approval rating is currently under-40% in seven states, most of whom voted heavily against the then Illinois Senator in 2008. Only Montana, a state that the President lost by less than 12,000 votes in 2008 but has just a 38% approval rating with now represents a significant shift. Pennsylvania in true swing-state fashion lands almost perfectly in the middle of Obama’s popularity rankings at 26th position and with an approval to disapproval rating (48-45%) very similar to his overall national standing. New Jersey meanwhile is the President’s twelfth most supportive state (52-41%) and Delaware scores him his third best ratings (62-29%) in the nation.

With the President’s popularity from one state to the next differing considerably so to not consistent is his falloff from Gallup’s last study concluded at the beginning of the year. The top five states where Obama’s approval rating has fallen by the largest percentile are Missouri (-14.5%), Utah (-13.8%), Vermont (-13.7%), New Hampshire (-13.6%) and Kentucky (-12.8). In the solidly red states of Utah and Kentucky his drop is fairly consistent with the overall disapproval registered within the Republican Party. Missouri however was a battleground state in 2008 that he lost narrowly to Senator John McCain. New Hampshire is a blue state that the President now see's dropping heavily into the negatives while the ultra-blue state of Vermont while experiencing significant deterioration in popularity remains solid for Obama.

With an eight-point dip in his national approval rating positives at a state level are difficult to find. In fact the President is more popular than he was six months ago in just one state. Delaware has actually shown tiny improvement for Obama since the end of 2009 delivering him a 62% approval rating which is about a single point improvement from six months ago. Other states where the President is experiencing a comparatively softer landing are Hawaii (-2.8%), Colorado (-3.3%), Mississippi (-4.8%), New Mexico (-4.9%) and Texas (-4.9%). In Pennsylvania (-9.4%) and New Jersey (-11%) meanwhile Obama’s dip in approval exceeds that of his overall decline at a national level.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Cliff Owen

Poll: Onorato moves closer in Pennsylvania Governor's Race, still trails by ten-points

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Is the race for Governor in Pennsylvania beginning to narrow?

Just a month ago Republican State Attorney General Tom Corbett held a safe 49-33% lead. The latest figures from Rasmussen Reports show his Democratic opponent, Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato, closing to within ten-points. The new data indicates a lead of 49-39% for Corbett, his narrowest advantage to date.

Of course being ten-points up in a race with less than four-months remaining until the election still positions Corbett as the clear front runner. Eight-percent of Pennsylvania likely voters are still unsure of who they support with another 4% backing a different candidate for Governor.

Corbett leads among men, women and independents in the Keystone State and retains a solid 22-10% margin between those who view him very favorably and very unfavorably. Onorato is also seeing some improved numbers as of late with 21% of Pennsylvanians holding strongly positive opinions against 15% with largely negatives ones.

Past polling indicated an approval rating of sitting Democratic Governor Ed Rendell as mired in the low to mid-40 percentiles. It will be interesting to see if the soon to be outgoing Governor experiences a bounce in popularity following the signing of the state’s budget earlier this week however. President Obama meanwhile is similarly lagging at the moment to the tune of a 47% approval rating amongst voters in the Keystone State, similar to his overall national standing according to recent Rasmussen data.

Onorato easily outdistanced three other Democratic rivals in May to secure the party’s nomination for Governor. Corbett meanwhile defeated Republican Sam Rohrer by a crushing margin of 69-31%.

Poll: Toomey continues to hold modest lead over Sestak in Pennsylvania Senate race

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The dynamics of Pennsylvania’s Senate race have changed little over the past month. Republican Pat Toomey continues to lead Democrat Joe Sestak by a modest margin.

A just released poll from Rasmussen Reports shows the Toomey advantage currently at 45-39% with 11% undecided and another 6% supporting a different candidate. Those are nearly identical figures from last month that showed Toomey with a 45-38% lead after Specter had enjoyed a brief post-primary bounce in May.

Whichever candidate wins in November they’ll be replacing long time Republican turned Democratic Senator Arlen Specter who was convincingly defeated by Sestak in his party’s primary in May. In spite of the highly publicized campaign Democrats appear to offer Sestak lukewarm support in the wake of his surprising victory. Just 70% of Pennsylvania Democrats are shown to support Sestak against 81% of Republicans who plan to vote for Toomey in the fall. The GOP’s nominee also holds a nine-point advantage amongst those likely voters unaffiliated with either major party.

As voters get to know each candidate better their opinions have soured some. Pat Toomey is currently view very favorably by 17% of Pennsylvanians with 13% holding a very unfavorable opinion. Joe Sestak meanwhile is evenly split at 16-16% amongst those with strong opinions. That represents a modest drop in support for both candidates since last month although it has had little to no effect on the overall picture of the race.

In other areas of interest Rasmussen Reports pegs President Obama’s approval rating in Pennsylvania at 47%. He has registered consistently just below the 50% threshold for several months now, a far cry from his 2008 success in the Keystone State when 55% of voters punched their ticket for Obama. The President’s stance on the immigration debate is not helping his numbers either. With the administration set to file a lawsuit against Arizona over its tough new immigration laws by a 55-31% margin a majority of Pennsylvania voters oppose the legal challenge.

Similarly most Pennsylvanians (54%) favor the repeal of the President’s sweeping health care reform bill passed last fall. 42% oppose any sort of repeal keeping these numbers roughly in line with what Rasmussen has tracked nationally, although somewhat at odds with other pollsters.

Poll: Phillies rule South Jersey but the Yankees are most popular team in the Garden State

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When it comes to the world of sports the Garden is classic battleground territory. A recent poll from Quinnipiac of 1,650 New Jersey residents finds a state high on the Yankees and positively wild for the Super Bowl.

Without a team to call their own the millions of baseball fans in New Jersey typically split their allegiance between the two clubs in New York City and the Philadelphia Phillies. 55% of the state claims to be at least somewhat interested in the sport and 47% of that group list the Yankees as their favorite MLB team. That’s over twice as many as those who root hardest for the Mets (21%) and Phillies (20%). Nearly nine in ten (88%) New Jersey baseball fans rank at least one of the three teams from large markets bordering their state to the northeast and southwest as their favorite.

These most recent findings are similar to what Quinnipiac found a year ago when a 2003 Sports Illustrated survey of fans from around the country including New Jersey. That poll found the Yankees attracting 44% of the vote for most popular baseball team in the Garden. The Mets were at 23% and the Phillies at 15%. The Bronx Bombers were in the midst of another run to the World Series that season whereas the Mets were in the midst of a last place finish in the NL East, all the while the Phillies posted a solid 86-76 record.

Despite the overwhelming affection for the Yankees over all other competition passions for baseball in New Jersey are regionally divided. Asked who’d they like to see win the World Series this season the Yankees came out on top of the Phillies by a 55-28% margin. Not surprisingly the Bronx Bombers dominate northern Jersey by 71-12% over the Phillies. In South Jersey however it’s neighboring Philadelphia that gets more love by a margin of 63-25%. Central Jersey meanwhile swings heavily for the Yankees again to the tune of 58-22% over their World Series opponent from 2009.

Baseball is popular in the Garden but more residents (65%) claim to be somewhat or very interested in the National Football League. The Giants and Jets while claiming “New York” in their title will christen a brand new stadium in East Rutherford this upcoming 2010 season. 80% of pro-football fans in New Jersey like the idea of the Meadowlands hosting the Super Bowl in 2014. Nine in ten (90%) meanwhile consider having the NFL’s championship game at the home of the Giants and Jets to be a “good thing” for the state of New Jersey.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Seth Wenig

Poll: Republican candidates lead Democratic rivals in two key races in Pennsylvania

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As a number of states prepare to vote in what could be crucial primaries today two news surveys from Rasmussen Reports show Republicans fairing quite well in Pennsylvania.

In the race for Senate Republican Pat Toomey is now shown as leading recently nominated Democrat Joe Sestak 45-38%. This is a turnaround from polling two-weeks ago that showed Sestak carrying a modest four-point lead bolstered by his primary defeat of longtime Senator Arlen Specter. The post-victory bounce has appeared to dissipate rather quickly for the sitting congressman however and Toomey, who led both would-be Democrats for most of the year, is back out in front.

The good news for Sestak comes in the 19% of undecided Democratic voters. Only 7% of Republicans can’t choose between Toomey, Sestak or a third-party candidate at this juncture. Overall 12% of Pennsylvanians are uncertain of any candidate perhaps affording Sestak the opportunity to both tie up some loose ends within his own party and court those crucial undecideds.

Health care remains a divisive issue in Pennsylvania as it does nationally. 56% of Keystone State voters support the repeal of health care reform legislation against 38% who oppose such a measure. Eight out of ten (80%) of those electing to keep the status quo not surprisingly favor Sestak and a virtually identical percentage (81%) of those pushing for its retraction side with Toomey. Overall Sestak splits the opinion of voters with strong feelings about him. 16% of Pennsylvania voters hold a very favorable view of the congressman against 16% who view him very unfavorably. Pat Toomey scores a bit better to the tune of a 21-13% very favorable to very unfavorable margin.

In the race for Governor Republican State Attorney General Tom Corbett leads Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato by sixteen-points. The 49-33% lead for Corbett also includes 13% of Pennsylvania voters who aren’t sure of a candidate preference and 5% who prefer someone else besides the two front runners. The dynamics of this race remain relatively unchanged from last month when Rasmussen polling showed Corbett with a thirteen-point lead and drawing 49% support overall.

Corbett’s reputation as a popular politician in the Keystone State is also confirmed by the number of those holding strong opinions of him. 27% of voters view him very favorably against just 11% who see him very unfavorably. Onorato meanwhile is divided by a far more modest margin of 14-10%.

Both men look to succeed sitting two-term Governor and former Philadelphia Mayor Ed Rendell who has been struggling with subpar approval ratings for over a year. Currently Rendell is approved of by 44% of Pennsylvanians. President Obama meanwhile scores a 48% approval rating in the state, a percentage more or less in line with his current standing nationally.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Keith Srakocic

Analysis: Lackluster approval ratings after first 500-days can be overcome, history shows

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Depending on which poll you reference President Obama’s approval ratings have seemingly been locked into place for several months now.

Typically in the 45-50% range the President has suffered through a prolonged stretch of mediocre popularity ever since the health care issue became a central focus last summer. Many are quick to suggest that the path to reelection for Obama is likely to be steep and treacherous. According at least to one reputable pollster however the effect of a President’s popularity less than a year and a half into their first term serves as little to no barometer in assessing their chances for reelection.

According to Gallup President Obama’s approval rating for the week ending May 30th reached a new low of 46%. It has since rebounded some, currently situated at 50% as of yesterday, June 2nd. While these figures are fairly moribund by most standards when comparing them to the popularity of Commander in Chief’s at the same point in their respective Presidencies a mixed bag of evidence appears.

Gallup compared the historical approval ratings of President Obama and his eleven most recent processors who resided in the White House dating back to Harry Truman. Seven of the eleven were either reelected or won their own term while serving as President due to their assumed role to the position following a death in office. Two other Presidents (Jimmy Cater, George H.W. Bush) were defeated for reelection. Gerald Ford was also defeated running for his own term as sitting President after serving out the final two and half years of Richard Nixon’s second-term ended abruptly by scandal and resignation. The assassination of John F. Kennedy meanwhile cut short his Presidency after only 34-months.

President Obama has reached his 500th day as the nation’s 44th President. Here is a list of where the other aforementioned Commander’s in Chief stood at the same point in their Presidencies;

44) Barack Obama – 46%
43) George W. Bush – 70%
42) Bill Clinton – 46%
41) George H.W. Bush – 67%
40) Ronald Reagan – 45%
39) Jimmy Carter – 44%
38) Gerald Ford – 46%
37) Richard Nixon – 55%
36) Lyndon Johnson – 67%
35) John F. Kennedy – 71%
34) Dwight Eisenhower – 62%
33) Harry Truman – 33%

The overall 500-day average between the eleven most recent Presidents of 59% means that Barack Obama lingers well behind the statistical norm. A deeper look however reveals that such a figure is bereft of much substance at least in terms of what it means for the overall life of a Presidency.

Five other Presidents; Harry Truman, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton also had approval ratings at 46% or worse 500-days into their terms. While Carter and Ford failed to win in the next election Bill Clinton won easily in 1996 and Reagan did so in a landslide in 1984. Harry Truman on the other hand had carried lifeless approval ratings for much of his first term but never the less staged one of the most improbable political upsets in American history in 1948.

On the other hand strong approval ratings early into a Presidency serve as no guarantee for future success. George H.W. Bush lost convincingly to Bill Clinton in 1992 despite carrying impressive approval ratings of 67% into the middle of 1990. His son George W. meanwhile only narrowly won reelection in 2004 despite a 9/11 bolstered approval rating of 70% in June of 2002. Bush would end up leaving office in January of 2009 with some of the worst approval ratings for a President in history.

Lyndon Johnson was already in the midst of his first full term as President having won in a landslide in 1964. Yet his impressive popularity 500-days into office did not translate well down the road. Johnson’s approval would fall into the low-40 percentiles by late-1967 as the controversial Vietnam War engulfed his Presidency and overshadowed his domestic achievements. Johnson won with over 61% of the popular vote in 1964 but found the political landscape too treacherous to navigate and chose not to run for reelection four years later.

Then again not all examples of high popularity early into a Presidency are a fluke. Dwight Eisenhower was consistently well liked over his eight years in office and won reelection in a landslide in 1956. Richard Nixon may have left the White House in disgrace but his approval rating of 55% at day number 500 paved the way for an historic landslide victory over his Democratic rival in 1972. We’ll never know what political fate was held in store for John F. Kennedy’s first term. His approval ratings of 71% as of June, 1962 and 58% upon his death in November, 1963 however made a second-term appear imminent had it not been felled by an assassins bullet.

As it stands as of this morning President Obama has an overall first-term approval rating of nearly 55%. While his level of popularity in recent months has clearly diminished Obama supporters need to look back no further than the previous Democratic President for inspiration. Bill Clinton’s 46% approval rating according to Gallup matches that of Obama’s 500-days into their Presidencies. Furthermore Clinton won reelection by eight and a half percentage-points despite posting an overall first-term approval of just 49.6%.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / CHARLES DHARAPAK