Analysis: Where will the 2010 midterms rank among greatest political comebacks?

With so much political talk of late revolving about the upcoming midterm elections it might be as good a time as any to take a look back. The Republican Party seems primed for a comeback in 2010 but whether than can retake both chambers of Congress or simply cut into the Democrats relatively large lead remains to be seen.

The GOP will need a net gain of forty seats to take back the House of Representatives and, as reported on previously, projection estimates range from anywhere to the upper-teens in seats added to as many as fifty. Ten victories in the Senate meanwhile will be necessary for control and most publications peg the Republican’s odds as fairly slim but hardly impossible in achieving that goal.

Below is a list of the ten biggest midterm election years for either party since the start of the 20th century. There have been 55-congressional elections over that period and 27 that have not coincided with a Presidential campaign.

Rank: 10-tied, Year: 2006, Party: Democratic, House: +31, Senate: +6

Notes: The current political landscape of America was dramatically shaped by the events of 2006. With historically low approval ratings President George W. Bush suffered major loses in the midterms that year during his sixth year in office. By historical standards the Democrats’ 31-House victories and six Senate pickups are fairly modest. It was important however in giving them control of both chambers of Congress for the first time since 1992. Harry Reid was ushered in as Senate Majority Leader and Nancy Pelosi became the first female Speaker of the House as a result of the Democrats congressional victories and a popular vote take of nearly 54%.

Rank: 10-tied, Year: 1966, Party: Republican, House: +47, Senate: +3

Notes: Many point to 1966 as the beginning of what would later be known as the “Republican Revolution” that culminated in Ronald Reagan’s realigning Presidential election of 1980. Due in a large part to President Lyndon Johnson’s crumbling popularity, the Vietnam War, race riots and conservative rejection to big government spending the GOP picked up 47-House seats and added an additional three in the Senate. Due to their large gains in Congress through the late 50s and early-60s the Democrats maintained a substantial majority in both chambers but the Republican comeback helped pave the way to Richard Nixon’s improbable election victory for President just two years later.

Rank: 9, Year: 1974, Party: Democratic, House: +49, Senate: +4

Notes: If 1966 was a year where the Republican Party engineered an impressive comeback that lead to two Richard Nixon election victories 1974 was the year that Nixon administration came crumbling down. It was miserable year for Republicans who were stunned by the President’s resignation after the Watergate scandal and were additionally criticized by the public after Gerald Ford’s subsequent pardoning of the now former President Nixon. Some close victories in the Senate increased the Democrats advantage to 61-38 over the Republicans and they picked up nearly 50 additional seats in the House after winning over 57% of the popular vote.

Rank: 8, Year: 1922, Party: Democratic, House: +76, Senate: +5

Notes: Undermined by a split in party leadership the Republicans suffered major midterm defeats, particularly in the House, in 1922. Warren G. Harding was riding a strong economy and successful Presidency two-years into his first time in the White House but at congressional levels the GOP had become divided by conservative and progressive factions within their party. Their massive 302-131 advantage in the House after Harding’s landslide victory in 1920 would erode to a 225-207 advantage over their Democratic rivals by way of 77 pickups for the minority party. The Republicans also lost six-seats in the Senate; five to the Democrats and one more to Henrik Shipstead of the Farm Labor Party. The GOP retained a 57-41-1 majority in the Senate.

Rank: 7, Year: 1942, Party: Republican, House: +47, Senate: +9

Notes: The outbreak of World War II and weariness over the long tenure of the Franklin Roosevelt administration resulted in significant Democratic loses in 1942. Breaking with tradition Roosevelt ran and won a third-term for President in 1940. The move was viewed with controversy, particularly by the political right. Additional weariness over FDR’s policies regarding the war and economy just loosening itself from the grips of the prolonged Great Depression eroded significant Democratic majorities in Congress. With 47-victories the Republicans climbed back to a modest 222-209 deficit in the House. Their impressive nine Senate wins meanwhile helped shrink what was a massive Democratic majority.

Rank: 6, Year: 1994, Party: Republican, House: +54, Senate: +8

Notes: it’s difficult to talk about 2010 without being reminded of 1994. That was the year the Republican Party, through a massive grassroots effort, took back both chambers of Congress with impressive margins of victory. Although their roughly six-point victory in the popular vote nationally appears fairly modest the cumulative result was an historic thumping. Winning 54-seats in the House and another eight in the Senate the GOP went from being a considerably minority party to the clear majority in the middle of President Bill Clinton’s mercurial first term in office. Becoming the first House Speaker to lose his seat since the Civil War Democrat Tom Foley gave way to Republican Newt Gingrich who would become the symbolic leader of the Republican Party for the rest of the decade.

Rank: 5, Year: 1930, Party: Democratic, House: +52, Senate: +8

Notes: The failing economy that presaged the Great Depression of the 1930s resulted in predictable and resounding loses for the Republican Party in the 1930 midterm elections. Similar by numbers to what took place in the opposite direction in 1994 the impact of what took place decades earlier gets our edge as slightly more significant due its paving of the way for Franklin Roosevelt’s landslide victory in 1932 and sustained Democratic majorities for many years to come. Eight Senate victories left the Democrats just one seat shy of a majority although the Farmer-Labor with one seat acted as a strong ally to Democrats and essentially balanced the chamber. The GOP retained a narrow edge in the House as well but special election victories for the Democrats after the election helped them to a 218-216 lead.

Rank: 4, Year: 1938, Party: Republican, House: +81, Senate: +6

Notes: Although majorities in the House and Senate were still many years away for the Republican Party the GOP did mount an impressive comeback in 1938. It was the middle of President Franklin Roosevelt’s second term. FDR swept to a landslide victory in 1936 and helped usher in an era of political dominance for his Democratic Party, but many rejected his policies and political decisions. Confidence in the “New Deal” was perhaps weakened by an economic recession that hit in 1937. The President’s infamous “court packing” plan was also met with heavy resistance from the GOP and public alike. Then there was the simply fact that with such large majorities and a number of freshman congressman on board after 1936 it would simply be difficult to defend such large political territory. The Republicans won 81-House seats and six in the Senate but the Democrats retained their large majorities in both chambers.

Rank: 3, Year: 1910, Party: Democratic, House: +58, Senate: +10

Notes: Before the ratification of the 17th Amendment U.S. Senators were chosen by a state legislature. 1910 was the last midterm election where a state by state popular vote was not used, but even by then many parts of the country were adopting the new format. Struggling for years as the minority party the Democrats launched an impressive comeback in 1910 that would set the stage for Woodrow Wilson’s Presidential victories in 1912 and 1916. The Dems picked up ten House seats although they still trailed their Republican opposition by eight. Their gains in the House were more impressive. Major factions within the Republican Party between conservative followers of President William Howard Taft and progressives loyal to former party leader Teddy Roosevelt helped the Democrats win a total of 58-seats and retake control of the House. Roosevelt would go on the challenge sitting President Taft for the GOP nomination just two years later and launch an impressive albeit unsuccessful campaign as a third-party candidate for President.

Rank: 2, Year: 1946, Party: Republican, House: +55, Senate: +13

Notes: Hailed as the “greatest Republican victory since Appomattox ” by the Chicago Tribune the 1946 midterm elections swept the GOP into power in both the House and Senate for the first time since 1930. The successful Presidency of Franklin Roosevelt ended abruptly in 1945. Upon his death Vice President Harry Truman assumed the reigns but found political waters difficult to navigate. Strapped with tough choices, controversial decisions and a sagging approval rating the Republicans launched a massive attack in Congress during the 1946 midterms. Trailing 242-191 in the House the Republicans came out of 1946 with an impressive 246-188 lead. In the Senate their staggering thirteen-seat pickup swung a 57-38 deficit to a 51-45 seat majority. The Democrats failed to pickup a single Senate seat and were forced to play defense. The Republican landslide made President Truman’s stunning victory in the 1948 election all the more impressive. 1946 was also notable for the addition of two freshman congressman to the House; John F. Kennedy of Massachusetts and Richard M. Nixon of California .

Rank: 1, Year: 1958, Party: Democratic, House: +49, Senate: +16

Notes: It was a close call but our winner for most impressive midterm election year goes to the Democratic Party from 1958. Many moderate Republicans had come into political power following huge victories for the GOP in the 1946 election and on the coattails of popular President Dwight Eisenhower. America had enjoyed a post-war economic boom through the late-40s and 50s as well but an economic recession in 1958 reversed things temporarily. Cold-War hysteria had gripped the country but a liberal backlash to the practices of Joe McCarthy’s communist witch-hunt as well as strong labor union opposition to President Eisenhower’s right-to-work programs set the stage for a Democratic revival. Although they held a solid majority in the House and a narrow lead in the Senate the Democrats 49-House pickups and whopping sixteen-Senate victories ushered in a second wave of political dominance for the Democrats that had started under FDR in the 30s. Successes in 1958 helped set the stage for John F. Kennedy’s narrow victory in the 1960 Presidential election and gained both he and successor Lyndon Johnson favorable support towards their major social and economic programs of the 1960s.

Poll: Economic conditions in Pennsylvania reflect national averages according to public

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When it comes to American business Pennsylvanians rate their state near the middle of the pack for 2009.

Another entry in Gallup’s comprehensive “State of the States” series focuses on the economic health according to the people in all areas of the country. The study takes into account five separate categories; economic confidence, job creation, the hiring & letting go of employees and standard of living. The results place the Keystone State around the national average and indicate a mixed bag of ratings for New Jersey and Delaware.

Gallup’s “Economic Confidence Index” is a combined percentage of two questions asked to the American public. First asking them to rate current economic conditions in the country and second to ask them whether they feel those conditions as a whole are getting better or worse. “Job Creation Index” relates to questions on the hiring and letting go of employees from companies. The percentage of Americans who claim their companies are hiring new employees and expanding the size of their work force against those who suggest the opposite. The final category tracks the percentage of those who say they are currently satisfied with their standard of living.

Nationally the Gallup study finds increased economic optimism from 2008 to 2009 and a greater number of American adults are also more satisfied with their standard of living year over year. Pessimism is more apparent on the job front however as significantly fewer companies are hiring and more are laying-off employees according to the public.

The Keystone State is a fairly accurate barometer of those conditions nationally ranking at or near the middle of the pack in all five categories. Nearly 354,000 American adults were surveyed including 21,542 from Pennsylvania alone. The state ranks 23rd in the percentage of those letting their employees go and 25th in the number of companies hiring. Ranking 24th in the country the net difference tracked by Gallup’s “Job Creation Index” is at -0.1% meaning a virtually identical number of Pennsylvanians see themselves and their fellow employees as being hired and fired. Other categories such as the percentage of those who are satisfied with their standard of living (24th) and their view of current economic conditions (30th) also placed around the middle on the list of fifty states and Washington D.C.

Pennsylvania may have been fairly consistent reflecting national numbers from one category to the next but neighbors New Jersey and Delaware were all over the map.

The Garden State ranked a solid nineteenth in economic confidence for 2009 but below average in terms of standard of living (32nd) and in the number of employees being hired. It was also one of the worst states in terms if letting go (7th) and New Jersey’s “Job Creation Index” ranked 42nd worst in the country accordingly. Delaware was similarly irregular. The First State was on par ranking 25th nationally in standard of living and its economic confidence (31st) was only slightly below average. However it was also the fourth worst state in America in terms of job reduction, a sub par 36th in job creation and eight from the bottom of the rankings with its index. Previously Gallup rated Delaware as having the

worst working environment.

All three states surrounding greater Philadelphia made year over year improvements in their economic confidence and standard of living and all three dropped predictably in terms of overall job creation.

The top-five in economic confidence were Washington D.C., South Dakota, Nebraska, Utah and Iowa. The five worst in that category were Wyoming, Michigan, West Virginia, Nevada and Idaho. At 82.3% North Dakota had the highest percentage of citizens satisfied with their current standard of living. This was followed by neighboring South Dakota, Alaska, Minnesota and Iowa rounding out the top-five. The five worst meanwhile were Nevada at just 69% satisfaction followed by Rhode Island, Michigan, Ohio and Georgia. Seven states; North Dakota, Nebraska, West Virginia, Louisiana, Maryland, Alaska and Oklahoma had at least ten-percent more residents being hired than fired according to their public. The bottom-five on that list; Nevada, Michigan, Oregon, Connecticut and California were all in the negatives by nine-percent or worse.

Analysis: Republicans will make midterm gains, but taking back Congress is doubtful for 2010

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After making impressive gains since 2006 that included a sweeping mandate in the Oval Office Democrats appear stuck in a rut. Republicans are energized meanwhile and have crafted a message of fiscal responsibility while taking advantage of the low approval of the Democratically controlled Congress and shrinking popularity of President Obama. It all sounds familiar.

Cries of 1994, the year the GOP gained 52-seats to take back control of the House of the Representatives, can be heard. Health care was a big issue then just as it is now. The Democrats had a President occupying the White House but struggling with a shaky approval rating in his second year, just as they do now. Many political observers have talked about the possibility of a Republican renaissance in 2010 even while polls show them still licking their wounds from a difficult recent stretch.

One of these observers, Isaac Wood, is a contributor to Larry J. Sabato’s much hailed “Crystal Ball” website. Sabato is the director for the Center of Politics and a professor at the University of Virginia. The “Crystal Ball” was perhaps the most accurate predictor from a pool of dozens of analysts on Election Night 2006. That year Sabato and company accurately forecasted the Democrats 29-seat pickup in the House as well as their takeover of the Senate.

The Republican Party would need a net gain of 40-seats to take back the House this year and, after Scott Brown’s stunning special election victory in Massachusetts last month, a total of ten victories for Senate control. While Republican heavyweights such as Karl Rove are pointing towards factors that could pave the way for an autumn political season resembling that of 1994, Wood sees a rather modest comeback for the GOP underway.

1994 was the only time in the last 35-years that either political party picked up over 40-seats in an election. Isaac Wood does not predict the Republican wave in 2010 as strong enough to put the party back in power either. The “Crystal Ball” projects a Republican pickup of 24-30 House seats, averaging out to 27 as of February. In the Senate they see seven additional seats as likely to be filled by the GOP starting next year, three short of what is needed to recapture that body.

“Crystal Ball” labels 102-districts as being competitive in 2010. The Democrats may have hit a ceiling after impressive gains in the past two Congressional elections but there is still hope for the party that they can minimize loses this November. Barring the unforeseen the economy will of course take center stage. While job loses should continue to hinder the Democrats throughout the year, if other aspects continue to rebound and if President Obama can keep his approval ratings at or above the 50% threshold losses could be slight for the party in power.

Since World War II the average pick-up in a midterm year is 22-house seats. Currently the “Crystal Ball” shows thirteen of those seats very likely or guaranteed to fall to the Republican Party and another eighteen toss-ups or leaners could be heading in that direction over the next few months. Unlike the Democrats in 2006 however the GOP is vulnerable in a few races where they currently hold seats. The Democrats are favored to win in Delaware and Louisiana and have a good shot at picking up control of a district in Illinois as well.

As is usually the case come midterms when one party substantially outnumbers the other in Congress they also have more territory to defend. This makes the chore of keeping wide margins in tact all the more difficult. By sheer numbers as well as the political tide that favors Republicans this season fending off advances will be a difficult task for the Democrats. Beyond the competitive races there are 28-districts that the “Crystal Ball” rates as likely holds for the Dems and another nineteen leaning their direction. The GOP meanwhile has seven races leaning their direction and another fourteen likely to be retained. This gap of twenty-six seats in addition to other favorable dynamics in competitive races for Republicans helps depict their potential upside heading towards November.

Wood, Sabato and their team at “Crystal Ball” have labeled 102 of the 435-races for 2010 as being competitive. Below is the breakdown between parties;

Competitive Seats: 102-total
Democratic: 78 (28-likely, 19-leans, 18-toss, 13-leans GOP)
Republican: 24 (14-likely, 7-leans, 1-toss, 2-leans DEM)

The ceiling for the Republican Party then would be 78. That would mean Republican victories in the total number of competitive races in seats the Democrats hold without any loses suffered in the 24 the GOP currently occupies. Since only a miracle or monumental disaster for the Democrats could make that number obtainable the next relevant number is 50. This would again include the Republicans defending all 24-competitive seats they currently hold while picking up victories in every race where A) a Democrat is favored to lose, B) in a toss-up battle, or C) those that currently lean in the direction of the GOP. Again this seems like wishful thinking especially when considering Republican vulnerabilities in at least two House races and the practical impossibility of winning every race come November that they trail modestly in as of February.

The magic number of course is 40 and piecing together a scenario where Republicans can simply take back the House with a narrow majority is far more manageable.

If for instance the GOP retained all 24 of its vulnerable seats, picked up the thirteen Democratic possessions that polls show leaning Republican and the eighteen toss-up races their total would balloon to 31. To get the extra nine victories needed for a majority the GOP would then need to win slightly less than half of the nineteen races where Democrats are favored to win. They could also win a majority of those Democratic leaners or pull off a few upsets in races where they are heavy underdogs, ala Scott Brown, to help offset the strong possibility of losing control of a couple of their own seats.

While many could look at the “Crystal Ball” prediction of only 27-victories for the Republican Party as low-balling some basic statistical analysis could show a strong possibility of even less than that total. Looking back at those 102-competitive races perhaps we can attribute odds to the likelihood that each one will be retained by one party or taken away by the other. In all instances where either a Democrat and Republican candidate is “likely” to win lets assume their chances of actual victory are 90%. In races where one or the other “leans” as the favorite we’ll place their odds at 70%. “Toss-up” races then would be a 50-50 proposition.

Using these figures the Democrats would suffer several defeats but still retain an average of 51.4 of their 78 “vulnerable” seats this November, nearly 66%. The Republicans then would pickup the other 26.6 seats lost by Democratic candidates, similar to the 27 projected by the “Crystal Ball”. However we need to apply this same math to the 24-seats currently under the control of the GOP. That means Republicans on average are likely to retain 18.6 while losing 5.4 of their currently held seats, or 78% retained.

Subtracting their net losses in currently held seats from their net gains in those under Democrat control we can calculate the Republican Party will, on average, net 21.2 seats this November. That’s similar to the historical midterm average of 22 and while it shows progress for a party that has struggled in recent years it still keeps the GOP well shy of their goal to retake control of the House of the Representatives.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / STEVEN SENNE

Study: Philadelphia is least healthy in state, but "well-being" exceeds other cities nationwide

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Philadelphia might be feeling ill over a new study that places it as the least healthy county in Pennsylvania. As the largest county and city in Pennsylvania with an estimated population of over 1.54-million, Philadelphia ranked 67th out of 67 counties in the Keystone State in terms of health.

The study which examines over 3,000 counties nationwide on factors such as crime, education, obesity and air pollution was conducted by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the University Of Wisconsin’s Population Health Institute.

In an article published yesterday by Don Sapatkin from the Philadelphia Inquirer the health-factors being discussed combine 23-measures in four separate categories. Smoking and diet, access to insurance and diabetes screening, income and crime, air pollution and healthy eating along with other physical and socio-economic factors were taken into consideration. Sapatkin points out the relationships are similar from state to state. In New York for instance the Bronx borough ranked last whereas more affluent counties such as Nassau and Westchester were near the top. In New Jersey the wealthy northern counties are in better shape than poorer central and southern locations like Cumberland and Camden counties.

The latest round of bad press is another punch in the gut to Philadelphians but nothing they haven’t sustained before. Much was made out of Philly being dubbed most obese city in American at the beginning of the decade by Men’s Fitness magazine. It dropped to fourth on the list by 2003 behind Houston, Chicago and Detroit.

For Pennsylvania healthy and unhealthy counties are spread across the state almost at random. Places lacking overall health do seem to appear most frequently in larger more congested urban areas and rural counties where access is harder to come by. Better health is more likely sustained in wealthier suburban areas that often border large cities. This is certainly the case in the Philadelphia-area. Although bordering Delaware County ranks near the middle of the pack (36th), three other surrounding counties of Philly; Chester (1st), Montgomery (5th) and Bucks (7th) all place at or near the top of the list in Pennsylvania.

Aside from Philadelphia most of the lowest ranked counties in Pennsylvania can found in the northeastern and western parts of the state. Allegheny County, home to the city of Pittsburgh and the second largest in the state, ranks a modest 49th. Many of the surrounding areas to the north and south of Allegheny however place near the bottom of the list. Healthiest counties meanwhile are dispersed throughout the state. Other than the Philadelphia-region however the middle of Pennsylvania is tops in health. Centre County home to Penn State University ranks second and bordering Union and Snyder counties rank third and fourth respectively. The state of Delaware has just three counties but New Castle which is part of the greater region of Philadelphia is ranked healthiest.

While not overly impressive the news for Philadelphia is better according the results of a Gallup survey released earlier this week. In it Gallup ranks the 52-largest metropolitan areas in the country in terms of “well-being”. Six categories were taken into consideration; life evaluation, emotional health, work environment, physical health, healthy behavior and basic access. Individual states were also assessed through the process of over 350,000 interviews from the beginning to end of 2009.

The Philadelphia-region rank is 33rd out of 52 markets and the state of Pennsylvania comes in at 30th place out of 50. With an overall well-being index score of 65.4 the Keystone State ranks one-spot behind New Jersey (65.6) and eight places in front of Delaware (64.7). The national index of 65.9 for 2009 was unchanged from last year meaning both Philadelphia (65.8) and Pennsylvania (65.4) rank slightly below average according to the Gallup survey and study. The Keystone State did make a modest improvement of half a point year over year.

The five states with the highest well-being index were Hawaii, Utah, Minnesota, Minnesota and Iowa. The bottom of the list was rounded out by Nevada followed by Ohio, Arkansas, Kentucky and West Virginia in last.

Hawaii’s positive reputation is not limited to its status as merely a great tourist destination. The Aloha State ranks first in life evaluation, emotional heath and physical health. West Virginia brings up the bottom of the list in all three of those categories. Vermont is tops in having the healthiest behavior, Utah has the best work environment and Minnesota is number-one in basic access. Kentucky, Delaware and Mississippi are worst in each of those respective categories. Pennsylvania’s best category is basic access ranking fourteenth and its worst is a 40th placement in life evaluation.

The best metros on the Gallup list of well-being were San Jose, CA, Washington DC, Raleigh, NC, Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN and San Francisco/Oakland, CA. The five worst on the list of 52 are Louisville, KY, Tampa/St. Petersburg, FL, Jacksonville, FL, Providence, RI and Las Vegas, NV. At number-33 the Philadelphia-region ranked ahead of other notable markets such as New York, NY, Pittsburgh, PA, New Orleans, LA, Detroit, MI and Miami/Fort Lauderdale, FL.

Minneapolis/St. Paul ranked first in both emotional health and basic access with Providence and Las Vegas the worst in those two respective categories. San Jose was tops in the similar categories of physical health and healthy behavior with Buffalo, NY and Louisville at the bottom of those lists. Washington, DC meanwhile scored highest in life evaluation and Raleigh topped the list for best working environment. Last in those two categories were the Tampa-area and Cleveland, OH.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / MATT ROURKE

Poll: Little change in Pennsylvania as Republicans continue to hold lead in races

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State Attorney General Tom Corbett holds a comfortable lead over his Democratic challengers for Pennsylvania Governor. Meanwhile fellow Republican Pat Toomey retains a solid advantage in the race for a Senate seat over Arlen Specter and Congressman Joe Sestak.

The latest polling conducted by Rasmussen shows Corbett holding a 49-28% lead over State Auditor Jack Wagner, leading Congressman Joe Hoeffel by 22-points and outdistancing Allegheny Country Chief Executive Dan Onorato by 26%.

Corbett held two-to-one leads over four Democratic hopefuls in January polling. His current success is bolstered by a significantly higher percentage of Pennsylvania voters who have a very favorable opinion of him (17%) over those who view him very unfavorably (5%). The Attorney General does well in virtually all sub-groupings including women and unaffiliated voters. While 18% of the state does not know enough about Corbett to form an opinion as of yet that figure jumps to around one-third of the Pennsylvania electorate when talking about the Democratic challengers.

In the race for Arlen Specter’s Senate seat Republican Pat Toomey continues to lead the veteran politician by nine-points, 47-38%. One in ten Pennsylvanias prefer another candidate in the event of that match up or remain uncertain of their support. Joe Sestak actually does slightly better against Toomey than Specter. He trails 43-35% but a considerable number of voters (15%) still are unsure about either candidate meaning the Delaware County Congressman has the potential to pick up more ground. The problem for Sestak is that he continues to run well behind Senator Specter in their primary contest. Although Rasmussen shows an improvement for him from last month Sestak still trails 51-36%.

Toomey is viewed very favorably by fourteen-percent of Pennsylvanians and very unfavorably by ten-percent. Arlen Specter has the highest level of strong support (18%) and opposition (38%) of any of the three candidates. Joe Sestak meanwhile is very favorable with just seven-percent of voters, very unfavorable with thirteen-percent and relatively unknown to most. Those numbers have changed little in recent months pointing toward a race that could be stabilizing some. Pennsylvania Democrats, who outnumber registered Republicans, will choose their party’s nominee in the May 18th primary. The general election that follows in November will decide whether the Keystone State has two Senate Democrats or one heading into 2011.

Governor Ed Rendell (43%) and President Barack Obama (44%) similarly struggle with low approval ratings in Pennsylvania although Rasmussen has consistently tracked both lower than in other polls. Seven in ten (71%) claim anger over the current policies of the federal government and similar to national polling a significant majority (58%) in Pennsylvania also believe neither Democratic nor Republican leaders in Congress know what the country needs to do in order to get back on the right track. The anti-incumbent sentiment for 2010 is reflected by the nearly two-thirds (66%) of Keystone State voters who believe the country would be better off if the current status quo was defeated. By a margin of 44-34% more voters also believe their own local representative should be defeated for reelection.

One more interesting tidbit from Rasmussen polling concerns the world of sports. With constant discussing over the future of the Eagles and their starting quarterback Donovan McNabb the question of whether the eleven-year veteran should stay or go was also asked. The survey found nearly identical percentages of those who believe the Eagles should to trade McNabb (28%) as those who say he should remain the team’s quarterback next season (27%). A plurality (45%) however is undecided on what to do with “Number Five” in 2010.

Poll: Americans high on Washington, Lincoln & love, but down on Presidents' Day & Valentine's Day

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Today is Presidents’ Day. The federal holiday was implemented by the United States Congress in 1880 honoring the similarly dated birthdays of two of America’s greatest President’s and statesmen.

Although the vast majority of Americans remain high on the legacy of George Washington and Abraham Lincoln few rank the holiday that celebrates their birth and life each year as being among the most important. Rasmussen Reports shows that just 14% think President’s Day is one of the nation’s most important holidays. A third (33%) believe it to be one of the least important with nearly half (49%) suggesting it falls somewhere in between. Only nine-percent of Americans plan to celebrate Presidents’ Day in some fashion which probably corresponds to the fact that only a third of adults (33%) claim to be off from work today.

Over 210-years since the death of Washington and 145 removed from the Lincoln assassination Americans continue to hold George and Abe in the highest regard. 93% of American adults have a favorable view of Abraham Lincoln with 63% claiming a “very” favorable opinion. The numbers for Washington are only slightly less impressive with a favorability of 89% and a very favorable at 54%.

When asked the question of which U.S. President is most influential in terms of their impact on the nation’s history Lincoln and Washington again finish one and two respectively. The 16th President draws 30% support from the Rasmussen poll sample and America’s greatest Founding Father ranks second at 21%. 20th Century President’s Ronald Reagan (17%) and Franklin Roosevelt (16%) are next on the list followed by the country’s third Commander in Chief, Thomas Jefferson with ten-percent support.

Male responders rank Washington slightly higher with women more supportive of Lincoln. Perhaps interestingly Lincoln only ranks second among polled Republicans, behind Washington and barely ahead of Reagan, in spite of his reputation as being the greatest member of his party. Democrats rank Lincoln first, Roosevelt second and Washington at a distant third. Unaffiliated adults meanwhile also side with Lincoln, followed by Reagan and then Washington.

Washington remains the country’s greatest Founding Father in the view of a majority (53%) of Americans. Around half of that total (27%) honors Thomas Jefferson, the principal author of the Declaration of Independence, with that distinction. John Adams (7%) and James Madison (3%), the primary author of the U.S. Constitution, are a distant third and fourth in the poll. In a showdown between which President had the more lasting impact on U.S history Lincoln defeats Washington handedly 64-25%.

Moving from our greatest Presidents to the topic of Valentine’s Day Rasmussen finds Americans have a love-hate relationship with the holiday. Established by Pope Gelasius I in AD 496 the holiday was named after Christian martyrs Valentine of Rome and Valentine of Terni. The modern practice of card giving began around the middle 19th century in the U.S and U.K.

According to Rasmussen 36% of adults look forward to Valentine’s Day, 20% dread the holiday and a 43% plurality are indifferent. Ranking with St. Patrick’s Day near the bottom of the list 51% of Americans consider Valentine’s Day one of the nation’s least important holidays, with just five-percent of the opinion that it’s one of the most important. Somewhat oddly men look forward to V-Day more than women and single adults think the holiday is more important than those who are married.

67% prefer to spend the day having dinner with someone “special”. In the event that the meal will be at a restaurant it appears that men will more often than not be picking up the check. The U.S. Greeting Card Association estimates that men spend twice the amount on average that women do for Valentine’s Day. The same organization also suggests that over one-billion Valentine’s cards are sent each year worldwide ranking the holiday second behind only Christmas.

PHOTO CREDITS: ASSOCIATED PRESS / CRAIG HARMON / HADI MIZBAN

Analysis: In wake of sagging poll numbers can Sarah Palin still be GOP's nominee for 2012?

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Buried in the middle of lengthy new poll from ABC News / Washington Post are the latest findings on how the American public feels about one Sarah Palin. Fresh off her highly publicized and somewhat maligned keynote address at the Tea Party convention last week Sarah has herself another dose of bad news.

Just 37% of American adults have a favorable impression of Palin. 55% view her unfavorably. That is the lowest level of support and highest level of opposition yet recorded. Perhaps most damaging of all is a twelve-point drop in the number of Americans who believe the former Vice Presidential candidate is “qualified to serve as President.” Just over a quarter (26%) now thinks a Palin Administration can execute the duties of the White House competently. Better than seven in ten (71%) disagree.

That the new ABC / Post release is a random survey of just over a thousand U.S. adults and not a more targeted sample of registered or likely votes, who more often vote Republican, should offer little consolation to Palin and her supporters. Regardless of who is polling in the fifteen months since the election of 2008 the former Alaskan Governor has not approached the levels of enthusiasm she obtained in the months leading up to her and John McCain’s defeat that November.

Name recognition continues to be the political battering ram for Palin. Next to President Obama she is quite possibly the most identifiable current figure in American politics. In spite of her sluggish appeal from adults across the board and from all political affiliations her support within the GOP has deteriorated little. Gallup ranked her second behind Mitt Romney as the candidate Republicans would most like to see as their party’s nominee for 2012. Earlier today the same question was asked and again Sarah came in second place with the support of 11% of the GOP. Romney leads with 14%, John McCain is third drawing support from 7%, Mike Huckabee has faded to just 3% meanwhile and a large block of Republicans (42%) prefer a different candidate than the eleven listed from that poll.

Down but far from out Palin continues to hold on to a solid majority of support from her own party and 37% of Republicans still hold a “strongly favorably” view her. However only 45% of conservatives according to the ABC / Post survey consider Palin qualified for the Presidency. That’s a sharp drop from the nearly two-thirds (66%) who believed she was just a few months ago.

The Republican focus is perhaps sharply divided as well. Seeking to defeat President Obama, who is largely unpopular with GOP voters even by the normal standards of a critical opposition party, many within Republican ranks believe they’ll need to put their best foot forward in 2012. This could mean supporting a candidate that is more likely to win in the general election but who doesn’t necessarily appeal to all corners of the base rather than risking losing with a candidate who is a party favorite but can’t generate independent or moderate Democratic support. Of course it could also be argued that this sort of populist strategy backfired in the most recent election of 2008 when moderate John McCain lost handedly to Barack Obama.

Speaking again of Sarah’s chances Nate Silver from Fivethirtyeight.com recently assessed the possibilities for Palin to make it through the Republican primary in 2012.

Silver weighs several variables that will likely affect the outcome of the primary season two-years from now and places them in groupings. Fundraising for example could be a particularly effective tool for Sarah Palin in relation to her Republican counterparts. Her overall reach may be more limited than a Romney or Huckabee but her followers are more devoted, particularly in the western United States and in her home state of Alaska.

State by state variables from 2008 exit polls help reveal the nature of the electorate and what types of voters supported the McCain/Palin ticket that year, not just how many of them did. Palin seems to do best among those voters without college degrees and in states where there are a higher number of self described conservatives. The specific batch of conservatives that Palin runs strongest with are white Evangelical voters. Mike Huckabee however is also widely popular within that group and could outflank Palin in states with large Evangelical populations. Lastly Silver defines Palin’s best topic in attracting votes as through energy and terrorism policy. Sarah as explained by Silver requires less policy nuance in gaining traction with two of the more general topics that should be core issues in her still undetermined Presidential campaign.

Sarah’s strength is typically in western states and the Deep South. Fitting the bill Silver rates her twelve best states in order as being; Alaska, Wyoming, Mississippi, North Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, Alabama, Kentucky, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Oregon and Idaho. Conversely her weakest regions are the southwest and northeast and in states such as; Massachusetts, New Jersey, Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, New York, Illinois, Utah, Delaware, Michigan, California and Pennsylvania.

The key early states in the primary, often responsible engineering critical momentum for a campaign, are Iowa, South Carolina, Nevada and New Hampshire. On average the four states rank around the middle of the pack for Sarah Palin in regards to her electoral strengths and weaknesses. Iowa and South Carolina in particular give her a good opportunity for victory whereas New Hampshire and Nevada are somewhat less likely.

Of course who else is running and in what specific order states will be voting could play a key role in determining what is expected to be a hotly contested Republican primary for 2012. Palin could do fairly well in what Silver describes are “second wave” voting states that play to her strengths in regions like the northwest and Deep South. Surviving through the early rounds should also build momentum that could carry her through certain states where she is less popular. However the exact order of those states is yet to be determined. Palin also could lose to Huckabee early on in Iowa, a state the former Arkansas Governor won in 2008, instantly undercutting her upward trajectory. She could also get hammered on the issues from political pros like Mitt Romney or simply lose to Huckabee or a wild-card candidate like Pennsylvania’s Rick Santorum with values voters in a war of attrition.

Ultimately Silver sees three different winnable scenarios for Sarah Palin in 2012.

1) She wins Iowa, South Carolina and a handful of “second wave” states primarily in the northwest. By doing so her momentum, barring any possible missteps, ought to be sufficient to defeat whoever is left standing in a narrowing field of Republican candidates.

2) This is the most complicated of scenarios. Palin needs to finish a strong second in Iowa presumably to Huckabee or a popular midwestern candidate. She then needs to pull out a win in South Carolina and power her way through to several victories in the aforementioned “second wave” states. She then wins some other large and important Republican stronghold in the south and rust belt region such as Texas, Florida or Georgia, Indiana or North Carolina, Ohio or Wisconsin.

3) Sarah takes Iowa as outlined in the first scenario and runs a strong second in South Carolina losing to someone other than Romney or another out of region candidate. Once again her best chance in “second wave” states that would come next would be to win big and regain momentum. Then the luck of the draw comes into play. Palin could be helped if the region that consists or the lower-Midwest, Deep South, Pacific Northwest, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Maryland votes next and she secures important victories in a handful of those states, most notably Texas. If the group that includes to rust belt, New York, Georgia and Florida votes next she’ll need to bet all of her chips on battleground states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio. If neither if those regions are the next to vote Sarah could be in serious trouble.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Ed Reinke

Poll: Mayor Nutter's approval rating at 53%, but Philadelphians are racially divided on the topic

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A new public opinion poll finds Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter surviving through a tough economic year to score a majority of approval from the city’s residents.

The poll commissioned by the Pew Charitable Trusts’ Philadelphia Research Initiative (PRI) surveyed 1,602 Philadelphians and pegs the Mayor’s approval rating at 53% with just 32% disapproving of his job performance. Nutter’s current rating comes halfway through his four-year term as city mayor and is an improvement from the 47-39% approval to disapproval margin he received in April of last year. Additionally twice as many city residents have a favorable (60%) than negative (30%) impression of Nutter.

However PRI also finds a racial divide in the city on the topic of Mayor Nutter. While 65% of Philadelphia’s white residents approve of the job he is doing, only 43% of the black citizenry agrees. Hispanics approve of the mayor by a margin of 55-24%. According to Census Bureau estimates for 2008 black residents (43.2%) outnumber whites (41%) in Philadelphia. The Hispanic/Latino population of any race meanwhile numbers 11.5%. Also according to revised census figures the city has experienced its first population growth since 1950 and could be as high as 1,562,461 residents as of 2009.

College graduates (62%), elders over the age of 65 (65%) and those with higher incomes (62%) are most likely to approve of Mayor Nutter’s job performance. By neighborhood Nutter is strongest where the white population is most dominant, including Northeast Philadelphia where 59% give him high marks. Not surprisingly he struggles more in traditionally black neighborhoods like those found in North Philly (42%).

“Obviously, I’m pleased with the direction, but more
pleased that the public is demonstrating an understanding of what kind of
challenges we’re facing.” – Mayor Nutter / Philadelphia Daily News

The prolonged budget crisis is the top concern for Nutter in dealing with the perceptions of voters. Nearly as many (46%) lack confidence in his ability to handle budget concerns as those who are confident (47%). On his decision to hike the city sales tax by one-percentage point Nutter receives the approval of 47% of Philadelphians but an additional 49% are against the increase. Nutter’s overall budget cuts have, fortunately for him, not been problematic for most city residents with 62% claiming to have witnessed no change in the quality of services.

Nutter defeated Republican Al Taubenberger in November of 2007 securing over 83% of the vote in Philadelphia to succeed John Street as city mayor. 83% was also the popular vote won by Barack Obama in the 2008 Presidential Election, a record for a Democrat in Philadelphia. Currently over 78% of the city is registered Democrat and a Republican has not served as mayor since the end of Bernard Samuel’s record length term expired in 1952.

Just as they were according to the last PRI survey from a year ago Philadelphians are almost evenly split on the topic of taxes and city services. 41% would prefer to see more services at the expensive of higher taxes while 43% favor the tradeoff of lower taxes and fewer city services. Table gambling is also a topic of interest with Philadelphia’s first slots parlor due to open its doors on the Delaware River waterfront in Fishtown and a second location proposal currently in the works. 54% of city residents favor table gambling legislation in their city against just 32% opposed and another 14% remaining uncertain.

Half samples were used when asking Philadelphians about specific features and services within their city. 58% of responders give good or excellent grades to the quality of library services in their area but only 28% said the same about programs for teenagers and the quality of street repair and maintenance – the latter issue a much talked about concern through what has been a particularly rough winter season.

By a 45-32% margin a plurality of polled residents approve of senior citizen programs and facilities. With Police Commissioner Charles Ramsey winning the approval of nearly seven in ten Philadelphians (69%), more consider the city’s overall police protection to be good or excellent (52%) than fair or poor (45%). An additional 59% like the general appearance of their neighborhood but an even number give low and high marks (48%) regarding park, playgrounds and recreational facilities. Better than two-thirds of the city (68%) approves of their trash collection and 58% rate the availability of health care services as good or excellent.

In spite of constant internal struggles within SEPTA 65% of Philadelphians think the city’s public transportation system is running efficiently as a whole. Fire protection, lastly, is the most approved of service in the city with 78% of residents giving it high marks.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Charles Dharapak

Analysis: Shrinking Obama job approval in some states makes for tougher path to reelection

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It seems a little early to be talking about the 2012 Presidential election but certain political trends that have been witnessed over the past year point to the possibility of a shakeup already in the works. The third entry in Gallup’s “State of the States” series for 2009 takes a look at President Obama’s job approval from across the country.

The released data shows a cumulative rating of 57.6% for Obama during his first calendar year in office. That is considerably higher than the President’s average approval rating over the past several months from Gallup that indicates support of around half the country. At present Gallup pegs Obama’s job approval at 51% with 41% disapproving. This is also notably higher than other February polls released from the likes of Rasmussen Reports, Fox News and Marist that show the President scoring on average a less than desirable 45-46% rating.

None the less the recent study is a helpful way to track where the President is most and least popular at a state by state level. Since the approval for a President does not rise and fall evenly between states with the changing political landscape it’s generally not a good idea to speculate what Obama’s current job approval ratings are at a state level. If we average the President’s approval rating over the past several weeks as being 50%, at least according to Gallup polling, than compare that to his 57.6% average from 2009 we are left with around a 12.5% drop in appeal.

For hypothetical purposes only we can then apply that 12.5% decline to each state and perhaps get a better read on the current levels of approval for President Obama across the electorate. The table below shows Obama’s approval rating in each state for 2009, our adjusted ratings for 2010, his popular vote margin from 2008 and the difference between that election and his current figures.

The above data points to the possibility that most of President Obama’s losses of late have been in solidly “blue” states from 2008. This should comfort supporters knowing that many of the built-in electoral advantages from that election appear to be safely in tact. On the flip side however the vast majority of post-election gains for the President appear to be in states where his approval rating is already low and where he was not competitive in 2008. In between we have several states that, if they follow current trends, could be in play for 2012 where they were viewed as solid or likely wins for Obama shortly after his resounding victory in 2008.

For classification purposes lets place every state where President Obama currently has an approval rating exceeding 58% in the “safe” column. Those where his job approval is less than 58% but greater than 53% are “likely” for the President. States where Obama registers below 47% but greater than 42% would be “unlikely” victories in 2012, states where he is below 42% are solid “red” for whoever his Republican opponent turns out to be. Then we have the gray area where Obama’s current approval rating rests above 47% but below 53% for a category we’ll classify as “battleground” states.

Obama won comfortably in eleven states (CT, MA, NY, RI, IL, CA, VT, DE, HI, MD, DC) including the District of Columbia in 2008. Those states accumulated 153-electoral votes for the President, well more than half the 270 needed for victory. Currently the President’s approval rating has dropped below the 58% threshold in his home state of Illinois, California, Delaware and Maryland. Without those four his “safe” electoral total would plummet to a mere 64-votes, this before new census data to be released later this year will reshape things further.

The picture is similarly disturbing for the President when discussing those states that fall in the category of likely victories in 2012 when compared to his success in 2008. Against Senator John McCain then Senator Barack Obama had twelve state wins by comfortable margins of 53-58%. Although the electoral clout (110) from 2008 isn’t much different than it is now (104), Obama has just five states (MN, NJ, IL, CA, DE) he can categorize as likely to stay blue in 2012. Overall Obama won 23-states containing 263-electoral votes by more than 53% in his election victory of less than a year and a half ago. Based solely off his current approval rating that present total is just twelve-states and 168-votes strong.

Lastly we take a look at the “battleground” or “swing” states that have played a crucial role in deciding the first two elections of the past decade and may do so again in 2012. Obama had only six states (MO, FL, NC, IN, VA, MT) where he pulled in between 47-53% of the popular vote in 2008. Now in 2010 based off his currently job approval there are a whopping 29-states that fit that description. Battleground states made up just eighty-electoral votes in the last election but as of right now they are on pace to contain 227.

The President can perhaps take solace in the fact that he managed to win 23 of those 29 states currently classified as part of the electoral battleground. However nine of those states and 81-electoral votes have moved from likely Obama victories to battleground states over the course of the fifteen months since Election 2008. On the other hand of the six battleground states Obama lost in 2008 only Missouri and possibly Georgia offer him a realistic shot at victory in 2012. The President would need to win every state he is currently polling strongly in and around 45% of the many battleground states where his approval ratings average out to around 50%. While it would be silly to consider those long odds the current electoral landscape does present a significantly greater challenge to President Obama now and perhaps as far off as November, 2012 than it did for 2008.

It is of course very early to be analyzing an electoral map scenario for 2012 especially without knowing who the President’s opponent is likely to be at that point in time. Still much of the information gathered is valuable in assessing current trends that could ultimately affect the political landscape in the coming years.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / SUSAN WALSH

Poll: Most pick the Colts to win but are rooting for the Saints in Super Bowl XLIV

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Gearing up for Super Bowl XLIV this Sunday, ESPN’s “Sports Nation” program decided to poll the country on a number of topics regarding the big game.

While these polls are unscientific by nature the impressive sample sizes and state by state breakdowns make for both insightful and entertaining viewing. Below are four of the more interesting questions and the responses from the many thousands of ESPN website voters.

Which team will win Super Bowl XLIV?

Indianapolis Colts: 58%
New Orleans Saints: 42%

Notes: As of 10:30 Friday morning over 318,000 folks nationwide voted on this the biggest of questions from Super Bowl XLIV. The Colts were the clear majority winner and that percentage dropped by just a single-point since news of the lingering Dwight Freeney injury saturated the airwaves several days ago. The Saints are favored to win by a majority of the voting public in just six states; their Louisiana home, neighboring Mississippi and in the New England states of Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts and Rhode Island perhaps stirred by Patriots fans who view the Colts as a bitter rival.

Not surprisingly Louisiana is most confident in their Saints (94%) and Indiana in their Colts (88%). In Mississippi 70% of voters also believe the Saints will be victorious on Sunday. Up in Viking-country Minnesota (75%) and North Dakota (70%) seem quite certain about Indianapolis, also perhaps spearheaded from the Vikes disappointing overtime loss to New Orleans in this year’s NFC Championship Game. Over 21,000 voters from outside the U.S. chimed in and took the Colts by a similar percentage (59%) to the American public. Pennsylvania (60%), New Jersey (65%) and Delaware (61%) all have above average confidence in the Colts chances to hoist their second Lombardi Trophy in four seasons.

Saints at Colts (-5.5): Which team wins?

Indianapolis Colts: 55%
New Orleans Saints: 45%

Notes: Football is big among the betters and gamblers as well and this Super Bowl will be no exception. When the game spread shows the Colts as favored by 5.5-points over the Saints 55% of the public still believes in Indy's chances to both win and cover. This is similar to the 58% of the ESPN voting public who think the Colts will win the game “straight up”. However several publications in recent days have dropped the line slightly to -4.5 or -5-points in favor of Indianapolis. Taking this poll again with the more recent game spread in tact may actually reflect a virtually identical total between the two.

Of the 26,575 people who voted across America on the 5.5-line the Colts were favored to “cover” in all but thirteen states. The Saints meanwhile were picked in all of New England, Delaware, Maryland, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Alaska, Mississippi and Louisiana. Two states, Pennsylvania and Wyoming, showed a 50-50% split. Once again confidence soared in each of the team’s home states with 93% in Louisiana confident in the Saints chances to cover the spread and 84% in Indiana thinking the Colts will.

Which team are you rooting for to win the Super Bowl?

New Orleans Saints: 57%
Indianapolis Colts: 43%

Notes: In a near perfect reversal from the question of who voters think will win Super Bowl XLIV a clear majority of the public is rooting for the New Orleans Saints to win. Previous scientific polls from Harris actually show the Colts as consistently one of the most popular teams in the NFL and well ahead of the Saints fan base in terms of size. However in the instance of this match up, the sympathy vote for New Orleans just a few years removed from the Hurricane Katrina disaster and keeping in mind the Colts Super Bowl victory of just three years ago, more are pulling for the Saints. The total from outside the United States hoping for a Saints victory (57%) is identical to the American audience that sizes nearly 200,000 on this particular topic question.

The Colts are the preferred team in ten states; Indiana, neighboring Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, Minnesota, Iowa, the Dakotas, Oklahoma and Utah. 96% in Louisiana are rooting for their Saints whereas 81% in Indiana pull for the Colts. In addition to their home state and bordering Mississippi the Saints are particularly popular throughout New England and Wisconsin. The Colts meanwhile do best in the northern Midwestern states where the Vikings are most popular, Tennessee where Peyton Manning went to college and Georgia perhaps because of the spirited rivalry New Orleans has with the home team Atlanta Falcons. Pennsylvania (60%), Delaware (60%) and New Jersey (55%) all are pulling for the Saints.

Will you watch this year’s halftime performance by the Who? Which of the past five halftime performers was your favorite?

Will watch: 45%
Won’t watch: 55%

The Rolling Stones: 25%
Tom Petty: 22%
Bruce Springsteen: 21%
Prince: 21%
Paul McCartney: 21%

Notes: Lastly we take a look at the impact of the musical Super Bowl halftime show and which recent performers were the favorite. The legendary British rock band the Who will be the halftime the act on Sunday but a majority of viewers might not be tuning in. 55% nationwide according to ESPN polling of nearly 43,000 suggest they’ll either turn the channel, using the time to mingle with party guests or take part in some other activity during halftime. The Who and their performance is most popular throughout the Mid Atlantic and New England states averaging close to a 50-50% split and least desirable in southwestern states like Texas, Utah and Arizona where 63% say they will not be watching.

As far as the halftime performers from recent years are concerned there is an extremely close divide in public opinion of who was the either the best or their personal favorite. The Rolling Stones Super Bowl performance from 2006 ranks number one with 25% of voters declaring it their favorite. The Stones also were considered the best by a plurality in twenty-states and tied in two others. They were most popular in Vermont, Maine, Arizona and Nevada polling at over 30% in each and least popular in Minnesota and Wyoming scoring under 20%. The British rock band’s popularity in the Tri-State area was also a tad sub par with just 23% in Pennsylvania, 22% in Delaware and 20% in New Jersey considering them to be the best act.

Tom Petty (22%), Bruce Springsteen (21%) and Prince (21%) all are similarly divided in terms of popularity. Petty is most popular in thirteen states and tied in one more, Bruce is the “Boss” in eleven states and Prince takes home top honors in an additional six. Petty is best in northwestern states like Montana, Wyoming and North Dakota, whereas Springsteen’s support not surprisingly is regionally strong in the northeast. Bruce does particularly well in his home state of New Jersey (39%), D.C. (32%), Pennsylvania (30%), Delaware (30%) and New York (29%). The "Purple One" meanwhile has a mix of support from around the country that includes strong showings in Hawaii (33%), Alaska (31%), his home state of Minnesota (30%) and southern states Georgia (29%) and Mississippi (29%).

Lagging behind is Paul McCartney who performed twice in this decade, most recently during the Eagles 24-21 loss to the New England Patriots in 2005. The former-Beatle was not the favorite performer in a single state although he does best in Utah (19%), Oklahoma (17%) and South Carolina (16%). McCartney struggles meanwhile in North Dakota (4%), Arkansas (6%) and generates only 8% support in Hawaii, Montana, Wyoming and New Mexico.

My Super Bowl Prediction (for the record): Colts 31, Saints 17

Poll: Latest political trends show most states leaning Democratic yet conservative

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Unaffiliated voters are growing in numbers, the Democrats remain strong at local levels yet conservatives outnumber liberals in every U.S. state.

These finding come compliments of recent studies from Rasmussen Reports and Gallup tracking current partisan trends and the ideological landscape of America in early-2010.

A plurality of adults (35.4%) still refer to themselves as Democrats but that is now the lowest total recorded in more than seven years according to Rasmussen. Each month the organization updates its partisan trends recording ideological shifts amongst Democrats, Republicans and unaffiliated adults. In January of 2009 Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 8.3% nationally and a year earlier their advantage was 5.6%. Now that total is down to 3.1% rebounding somewhat from a 1.5% lead in December that was the narrowest Democratic Party advantage since August of 2005.

Although they’ve made up some ground over the past year it’s not all roses for the Republican Party either. 32.3% of the country now view themselves as Republican and while that total is within an average range for the Party it is only equal to the current total of unaffiliated adults. Also standing at 32.3% unaffiliateds are at their highest level since May of 2007, the last time that they were equal to or exceeded the number of Republicans in the country. The growing displeasure for both major parties may also be reflected in the 65% of voters now holding mainstream or populist social and political views. Rasmussen describes mainstream Americans as leery of both big government and big business and more likely to trust the wisdom of their fellow citizens.

“The American people don’t want to be governed from the left, the right or the
center. The American people want to govern themselves.” – Scott Rasmussen / Rasmussen Reports

Turning our attention to two recent studies by Gallup we take a state by state look at current party identification and political ideologies. Gallup conducted their research through a massive sample size of nearly 354,000 adults nationwide including more than 20,000 interviews in Pennsylvania alone. What they uncovered were slight shifts from 2008 to 2009 favoring Republicans but not enough to offset the clear advantage Democrats hold at state and local levels. The survey measured the number of Americans solidly or leaning toward the Democratic Party at 49%, down from 52% in 2008. Republicans meanwhile gained slightly up to 41% in 2009 from 40% last year.

The District of Columbia who has voted for the Democratic candidate in every Presidential election in its history has nearly 78% affiliating as a Democrat – a margin of 66-percentage points over Republicans. At 54% and holding a 22-point margin Wyoming is the most Republican state in the country. Only five states (Wyoming, Utah, Idaho, Alaska, and Alabama) feature a considerable advantage of better than five-percentage points favoring the Republican Party. On the flip side a whopping 34-states, including the District of Columbia, have greater than a five-point advantage in Democratic affiliation.

In the Tri-State area Delaware ranks strongest for the Democratic Party with a 21% advantage over Republicans. New Jersey also scores high for the Democrats holding an eighteen-point lead over the GOP. Pennsylvania meanwhile gets lumped in closer to the middle of the pack but still offers a twelve-percentage point lead for Democrats over Republicans in the state.

The Democratic advantage in party identification is tempered somewhat by a large ideological lead for conservatives over liberals. As previously mentioned there are no states where liberals outnumber conservatives, although the District of Columbia has a 15% liberal to conservative gap, and in only three states (Vermont, Hawaii, and Massachusetts) are the ideological totals nearly identical.

Conservatives outnumbered liberals 40-21% in 2009 according to Gallup research with an additional 36% identifying as politically moderate. Alabama is both the most conservative state (49.4%) and features the widest disparity (34.6%) between major groupings on the political right and left. The fewest liberals (13.9%) for a state reside in Alabama’s neighbor Mississippi. At 28% Vermont contains the most liberals outside of D.C. and also features the smallest conservative to liberal margin of just 0.8%. Over half of the states in America (26) have conservatives outnumbering liberals by over twenty-percentage points.

Typically Democratic states also tend have more politically moderate adults. Rhode Island, Hawaii, West Virginia, Vermont, Connecticut and Delaware all are composed of moderates by more than 40%. The First State however ranks just 30th on the list of most liberal states (19%) behind Pennsylvania’s 23rd ranking (20%) and New Jersey who is number nine (24.7%).

Two polls show modest gains for Obama following State of the Union address

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Fresh off his State of the Union address last week President Barack Obama has made a modest improvement with voters according to two major polls.

Gallup currently shows the President scoring a 50% approval rating from American adults, the first time he has reached the 50% mark in eleven days. Prior to the State of the Union Obama was at a less than desirable 47% average. Although this is not the first poll taken since his speech last week the three-point “bounce” measured falls in-line with Gallup’s assertion that President’s generally see little impact from their big national addresses. The topic was covered with greater depth in an

article last week.

Rasmussen Reports hails the recent State of the Union address as giving the President a “significant bounce” meanwhile. The polling methodology used by Rasmussen differs somewhat from that of Gallup. First off Rasmussen tracks “likely” voters instead of using a more general pool of nationwide adults to sample like Gallup. Secondly while they both show general approval ratings Rasmussen places a greater emphasis on those who “strongly” approve or disapprove and their net approval index rating reflects that data.

President Obama has struggled for months in the area of strong support against strong opposition according to Rasmussen, but his most recent approval measured at a negative four-percent is the best approval index achieved in over seven-months. Obama’s overall approval rating stands at 49%, down a point from yesterday. The number of those strongly approving of his job performance has shot up eight-points to 35% however. 39% of likely voters still disapprove of the President but the number that do so strongly has decreased by three-points since before his speech last Wednesday night.

Since the beginning of the New Year Gallup has measured President Obama’s approval rating between 47-52% every day. Rasmussen meanwhile has not measured the level of strong opinions in the plus column since last June when Obama was at +2% for the month. The President’s numbers bottomed out in December with a net approval index of -15%. For the now completed month of January Rasmussen tracked a modest up tick of one-percentage point (-14%) for Obama, still far below his peak rating of +23% for the month he entered office last January.

The most recent poll from CBS News conducted a week before the State of the Union address gave the President a 50% approval and 40% disapproval rating amongst adults. CBS also polled on the speech itself and found positive feedback from 83% of viewers on Obama’s performance. More polling from other organizations, perhaps to be released in the coming days, is welcomed if we are to give proper weight and perspective to recent surveys from Gallup and Rasmussen. It will also be worth focusing on those specific pollsters to see if the modest bump the President received from Gallup and the more significant one being measured by Rasmussen is simply the result of statistical noise, a blip on the radar, or part of a growing trend.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / NICK WASS