Poll: NFL fans more receptive to Vick now than two years ago

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Two years, two polls and in between some apparent forgiveness for NFL star Michael Vick.

Recently the results of a Marist survey polling several hundred NFL fans were released. The hot topic this go round comes after the reinstatement and subsequent Philadelphia Eagles signing of quarterback Vick, convicted dog torturer. According to the poll 57% of football fans agree that Vick ought to be able to return to the NFL having served his time whereas 36% disagree and think the former Atlanta Falcons star should remain banned for his actions.

These are contrasting results with a two year old Gallup poll released in the wake of accusations of Vick’s involvement in dog fighting and animal cruelty. 40% of responders said they thought Vick should be allowed to return to the NFL after serving his time against 58% who disagreed. The Marist poll using similar samples sizes and methodology to the Gallup survey points to a considerable increase in forgiveness of NFL fans now that Vick has been forced to spend 23-months in prison and pay in the millions for his crimes.

Also on the rise are the percentage of NFL fans who would like to see Michael Vick play for their favorite team. The 2007 Gallup release indicated just 22% were in favor of Vick wearing their team’s colors after he served his sentence. The latest Marist poll has that figure up to 37%.

Controversy was bound to get stirred up regardless of where Vick was going to land, but in generally outspoken Philadelphia his presence on the Eagles has been greeted with wildly divergent views. While no poll of Philly fans was taken specifically the Marist survey indicates that residents of the Northeast are particularly against (62%) the idea of Vick playing for their beloved team.

In addition to the opinion gap amongst Eagles supporters there is wide gender gap regarding the reinstatement of athletes convicted of a crime according to the Marist poll. 64% of men against only 42% women agree that former athletes should be allowed to return their sporting profession after serving their sentence. Among fans of both genders NFL players may be facing an uphill battle in the war of perception, at least in comparison to most other sports according to the Gallup survey. Footballers rank sixth out of seven sports (golf, tennis, baseball, hockey, football, basketball) polled in terms of how positive individual players are viewed.

Poll: Acceptance of drugs on the rise? The evidence is hazy

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Is marijuana legalization slowly moving closer to the finish line? Perhaps. In the court of public opinion it seems more and more obvious that there is a growing acceptance of illegal drugs, all the while polls point to nothing more than a smoke-filled haze of public perception on alcohol and drug related topics.

Released earlier today a Rasmussen Reports survey now finds that a majority of Americans (51%) say that alcohol is actual more dangerous than marijuana. 25% of polled adults consider both drugs equally harmful and only 19% are now of the opinion that the pot is worse than the bottle. Alcohol is legal in all fifty states for adults over the age of 21. Marijuana on the other hand is illegal for consumption except where it is recognized for medical purposes. That is the case in thirteen states nationwide, although only California, Colorado, Rhode Island and Mexico utilize medical dispensaries where the drug can be sold. Pennsylvania meanwhile is one of seven additional U.S. states considering marijuana bills in their legislatures.

The broader issue of drugs and the legalization thereof continues to win over certain critics and gain acceptance circles where it was once vilified. Several polls in recent years have pointed to this fact but the Rasmussen survey is one of the first to pit public opinion of marijuana against that of the more widely accepted stimulant, alcohol. Mexico recently decriminalized small amounts of pot possession and the state of California will no doubt receive great attention next year as it pushes three separate legalization measures.

Nationally speaking polls seem to show varying levels of public support for marijuana legislation. Rasmussen indicates an uphill battle for pot even if the climb doesn’t appear as steep as in decades past. 41% of U.S. adults think pot should be legalized and taxed with 49% opposed according to that poll. Back in April ABC News, who did not include the taxing option, still found that 46% of adults favor the legalization of “small” amounts of the drug for personal use. On the other hand Zogby who surveyed over 3,900 voters this past May found that by a margin 52-37% most actually favored pot legalization.

The least inspiring numbers for marijuana advocates comes from a March CBS poll of 1,142 adults nationwide. Asked rather bluntly if they thought the use of marijuana should be legal or not only 31% of responders agreed against 63% who felt it should remain illegal.

Poll numbers such as these help illustrate the rather diverse feelings most Americans have toward drugs and alcohol alike. For instance, most think marijuana should be legal for medical purposes but probably not for general use. Most think it should be decriminalized but not made readily available. Americans are more sensitive to the issue of drugs and tend to believe our prisons should be heavily reduced in the number of non-violent drug offenders but also believe the substances that put them in jail should remain banned.

There are similar disparities in the view of the public on alcohol. Americans embrace the culture of alcohol and are drinking in record numbers. 30% of adults according to the aforementioned Rasmussen survey even think the drinking age should be dropped back down to eighteen. But while most states have already stepped up legislation against drinking and driving 50% of adults still do not believe current drunk driving laws are strict enough. That same number also favors a tax increase on alcoholic beverages.

Perhaps the bottom line is that there is no one way of thinking on any subject involving drugs and alcohol. Still the overall trend is towards a more liberal view of banned substances so long as the message being preached by advocates is one that does not involve public safety. American drug culture was never as apparent as it was forty years ago yet in 1969 at the height of the counter-culture some 84% in a Gallup poll were against the legalization of marijuana. Anything nearing a 50-50 split of public acceptance for pot would have to then be viewed a major achievement to the mainstreaming of the drug.

Polling on public option, are the wrong questions being asked?

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Nate Silver of Fivethirtyeight.com recently wrote an interesting article on his popular website about health care and public option. Unlike most of the reports or opinion pieces that have been circulating throughout the media Silver take a looks at look at how exactly the polling itself is being conducted. Or more specifically how he feels it has been done poorly in recent weeks.

It’s no secret that Americans are sharply divided on the debate of health care and public option, the implementation of or lack thereof hurls yet another log into the fire pit of public debate. Most polling outlets have shown a steady decline in support for reform proposals. ABC/Washington Post who as recently as April showed President Obama’s approval rating on the issue at 57-29% approval to disapproval split now has his numbers at 46-50% respectively.

While it appears a majority of Americans are on board with the general principle that private insurers should have to compete with a government run plan and that government intervention is at least somewhat necessary, the figures are quite close to 50-50. As Rasmussen Reports indicates the number drops well below 50% when asking whether individuals would support a reform measure that did not include the so-called public option. Republicans and independents appear strongly against the idea of vast government control of the health care system and even Democratic support hovers at just 50%.

The numbers consistently point to an uphill struggle for Democrats and the President on the issue, and while that is quite possibly the reality of the situation Nate Silver for one asks for some better polling. Silver figures polling on such a specific issue would be quite easy but says that pollsters have really been fouling things up as he offers up “five essential ingredients” in conducting an effective poll on the topic public option.

1. Make clear that the 'public option' refers unambiguously to a type of health insurance, and not the actual provision of health care services by the government.

2. Make clear that by "public", you mean "government".

3. Avoid using the term 'Medicare' when referring to the public option.

4. Make clear that the public option is, in fact, an option, and that private insurance is also an option.

5. Ask in clear and unambiguous terms whether the respondent supports the public option -- not how important they think it is.

I’ll let Silver’s words speak for themselves as he goes into greater depth and clarity about the significance of each of his recommendations. You can read the rest of his material by following the link to his website here and scrolling down to the eighth article on the page.

In summary Silver considers a recent Quinnipiac University question to be the best example of good polling in brief on the topic of public option. “Do you support or oppose giving people the option of being covered by a government health insurance plan that would compete with private plans?” Polls from Time/SRBI, the aforementioned ABC/Washington Post and the Economist/YouGov also score high in the quality of their questioning and accuracy of results as described by Silver.

Again we see another example of how the phrasing of a poll question is arguably as important as the general understand the poll recipient has on the topic itself in generating an accurate barometer of public opinion.

Poll: Despite pledge, most Americans expect Obama to raise taxes

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Americans remain skeptical of President Obama’s pledge not to raise taxes on all but the wealthiest of earners. This is according to a recently released Gallup poll of 1,010 adults nationwide.

The issue of taxes has long been regarded as something of a political third rail for elected officials. In his one term in office George H.W. Bush found out the hard way what breaking campaign promises regarding taxes can do to the life of a Presidency. Bush’s rather infamous “read my lips, no new taxes” statement broke a campaign pledge and with an economy in recession later in his term it also damaged his changes of reelection.

Most Americans are used to the idea of tax and spend Democratic Presidents historically. But current President Obama faces perhaps a stiff challenge in honoring his no tax raise pledge while effectively pushing through expensive legislation. The Gallup poll speaks to this perception. 68% of Americans believe their income taxes will be higher by the end of Obama’s first term in office. These numbers include 35% of adults who think their taxes will be “a lot” higher by 2012, 33% who assume they will be at least “a little” higher, and 20% who think they will stay roughly the same. Only 9% of poll responders think their taxes which actually go down under the Obama Presidency despite the vast majority of Americans being under the $250,000 threshold that he pledges to protect.

During the campaign a similar question from Gallup resulted in 49% of American adults expecting their taxes to be raised in the event of an Obama Presidency. This was before the passing of a massive $787 billion economic stimulus package and an approximately $1 trillion health care reform bill now on the books. 48% of Democrats think their taxes will go up under Obama with around 70% of independents agreeing and nine in ten Republicans sharing in that opinion. More startling for the Obama Administration may be the 59% of low income earners of under-$30,000 a year who still think their income taxes will increase by 2012.

It seems that the vast majority of Americans have resigned themselves to the realities of a likely tax hike under Obama. While that isn’t exactly a pleasant realization, the President can perhaps take solace in the fact that 1) not everyone is against a tax hike, and 2) if by some chance he exceeds expectations by paying for programs without the increase it could be spun as a major political victory.

CNN/Opinion Research Corp. in a poll from earlier this month found somewhat different perceptions of President Obama’s economic policy depending on what questions were asked. For instance only 44% of Americans thought the President’s policies had made the economy better against 51% who “didn’t think so”. Fuzzy terms like “I don’t think so” surely leave open the door for plenty of interpretation and probably inflate the overall number of negative responses.

CNN then follows up by asking those who “don’t think so” whether they believe the President’s policies will help the economy in the long run. To that question 11%, or better than one in five “don’t think so” responders also think he will improve things ultimately. Adding that total back to the 44% who believe Obama has in fact made things better already we now get a 55-40% positive to negative split. One side will report the negative 44-51% figures for Obama whereas the other will take off and run with the 55-40% totals in just another example of how the interpretation of polls can be important in the shaping of public opinion.

Health care debate: Public Opinion vs. Facts?

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President Obama and Congressional Democrats seem determined to push health care reform through by any means necessary. Now perhaps without the assistance of even their fellow counterparts from just across the political aisle.

Over the past few weeks the Obama Adminstration and Democrats have found that convincing the public that a comprehensive plan to adjust the nature and process of the health care system in America to be a massive struggle. Proponents have been shouted down at town-hall meetings, certain polls have shown Republicans scoring higher marks than Democrats in their handling of the issue and the President’s numbers on health care and overall job approval ratings have slipped considerably.

Nearly unchanged from three weeks ago the latest NBC News poll shows that just 41% of adults approve of the way President Obama is handling the issue of health care reform against 47% who do not approve. Even worse for Obama is the ever growing war of perception that he and his Democratic cohorts seem to be on the losing end of. By a 42-36% margin a plurality of adults interviewed in the same NBC poll think the President’s new “plans for health care” are a bad idea.

Looking to get back out in front of the issue the President discussed his proposals with Philadelphia’s own Michael Smerconish of 1210 AM, “The Big Talker” earlier yesterday. Obama is standing by his position of public option being a key aspect of any mass overhaul legislation regarding health care. “I see nothing wrong with having public option as one choice” the President said, adding that no one should be “obligated to go into a public plan.”

There are any number of questions and heated debates being directed at and discussed between politicians and regular citizens alike. Perhaps finding out whether those on the side that object to reform are really grasping the issue is just as important? In short, do the nay-sayers, millions of members strong, have it wrong? Calvin Woodward of the Associated Press recently brought to light some of the myths surrounding the health care reform issue.

The judgment is harsh in a new poll that finds Americans worried about the government taking over health insurance, cutting off treatment to the elderly and giving coverage to illegal immigrants. Harsh, but not based on facts. – Calvin Woodward (AP)

Woodward points out that according to a recent ABC poll some 45% of Americans believe overhaul will allow the government to decide when to stop caring for the elderly. In truth nothing being discussed in regards to reform proposals would give the government that kind of authority and much of the public misconception has been fueled by right-wing hysteria over “death panels”, and “government encouraged euthanasia” Woodward claims.

By a margin of 55-34% Americans also believe overhaul will give coverage to illegal immigrants even though none of the negotiated proposals provide for such. A majority of Americans also see the government completely taking over the health care system forcing those to join a government plan. The facts on the other hand suggest that President Obama’s government plan is just one option where citizens will not be forced but have the choice to join, and that it competes with private insurers. Lastly on the hot-button topic of abortion nearly half of poll responders expect their tax dollars to go towards funding the controversial medical procedure. Another misconception prevails here according to Woodward who claims “the procedure would be paid for with dollars from beneficiary premiums, not from federal funds.”

Questioning the level of understanding as it’s tied to public opinion a recent Gallup study finds that universal health care coverage generally gets high marks where it has been implemented abroad. Countries that are part of the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) are found to express more confidence overall in their national health care system when they have universal coverage than countries that do not. Including many industrialized countries in Europe and Asia when asked the question of whether their citizens are satisfied with availability of quality health care 79% with universal coverage answered “yes”, against 66% who answered the same from countries without a national plan. In terms of the overall confidence in their system foreign citizens of OECD countries offering universal coverage were more confident by a margin of 73-60% over those who do not have it.

Many pundits including Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com are well aware that success on a volitale topic such as health care reform depends on who effectively shaping their message and winning the PR battle. Democrats may be ready as Silver suggests to “toughen up on the issue” and go it alone without collaboration from Republicans in congress. Watering down Democratic proposals hasn’t worked in the sense of compromising or attracting moderate support on the issue, just as it has frustrated the core liberal wing of their party.

Heading out of recess with momentum is essential and the next several weeks could be the make or break period for reform advocates - this purely in the sense of the political numbers game. In the meantime success in turning the tide of public opinion will likely have to arrive by way of facts over rhetoric.

Poll: Four decades later Woodstock, Beatles and rock music still rules

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The original Woodstock Music & Art Festival recently celebrated its fortieth anniversary. As a momentous cultural event Woodstock’s enduring impact on the music and entertainment industry is not lost on the folks at Rasmussen and Pew Research.

Peace & love vibes may have reigned supreme in 1969 but four decades later less than four in ten Americans are convinced a similar sized festival could gather peacefully.

According to a recent Rasmussen Reports poll 39% of responders said Woodstock’s success in that regard could be repeated. 34% disagreed however with a large 27% suggesting they were uncertain and likely skeptical. Over 400,000 attended the original Woodstock festival at Max Yasgur’s six hundred acre farm in the small rural town of Bethel New York. While there were three accidental deaths, one rumored birth, a rain soaked audience and numerous facility issues the event was, on the whole, a massive success.

The most skeptical age-bracket are those old enough to remember the original Woodstock of forty years ago. Whereas 44% of younger Americans aged 18-29 and 53% of those in their 30s are optimistic a peaceful festival could be held with an audience that large, older citizens share a much more pessimistic view. 36% of those aged 50-64 think a crowd of 400,000 could pull off a peaceful display but just 20% of seniors 65 and over share in that opinion.

The optimism of thirty-somethings, nine percentage-points higher than the 18-29 year old crowd may look surprising at first glance. Perhaps their respective perceptions of civil obedience are affected by other Woodstock festivals. Most of the younger crowd surveyed here by Rasmussen may only remember the disastrous of events of Woodstock III held in 1999 when violence and destruction tainted the 30th anniversary proceedings. The 25th anniversary Woodstock II from 1994 on the other hand, a hallmark cultural event for many of those now in their 30s, was a far more pleasant affair.

Large festivals from the 60s and early-70s like Woodstock have had their moments of social and musical bliss as well as civil disobedience. The massively influential Monterey Pop Festival of 1967 drew around 200,000 fans in a peaceful affair of cultural "Flower Power". California’s Altamont Speedway headlined by the Rolling Stones was marred by disorganization and violence resulting in the death of one concert attendee.

1970’s massive Isle of Wight Festival in England was the last of its kind for over three decades with its proceedings marred by logistical problems and an, at times, unruly audience. Summer Jam at Watkins Glen from 1973 meanwhile holds the distinction of the largest festival in history with over 600,000 attendees and no major reports of violence.

Clearly inspired by the Woodstock anniversary Pew Research polled on a number of topics relating to the generation gap of today as opposed to the 1960s. What they found was a far more “subdued affair” today than the generational war waged four decades ago.

Rock and roll in particular has ventured from the defiant cultural soundtrack of the 60s to the most popular and accessible form of music in the 2000s. Rock music was largely reviled in 1966 when polls indicated that by a staggering eleven-to-one ratio (44-4%) more people claimed to dislike the format over those who considered it their favorite. In 2009 now 65% of the 1,815 people age sixteen and over surveyed by Pew said they listened to rock music “some” of the time or “often”. Only 22% now claim to “never” listen to it. Other rock influenced genres of popular music also score high including modern country, R&B and Rap/Hip-Hop.

By age group rock music’s appeal tapers off significantly only in the over-65 age bracket with just 8% listening to it often. Rap/Hip-Hop is almost as popular as rock music for 16 to 29-year olds (45-41%), but it too plummets in popularity with age groups after that. Country is statically the most stable category of music appealing to age groups of 16-29, 30-49, 50-64, and 65+ by percentages of 25, 21, 31, and 37% respectively. In terms of political groups Republicans show a slight preference for country, Democrats put rock and R&B at a statistical dead-heat atop and independents go for rock, followed by country, then R&B music.

Lastly Pew asked its responders to rate twenty different performers who represent different musical eras and styles since the 1940s. Of the top-20 performers a total of seven (Beatles, Rolling Stones, Aretha Franklin, Jimi Hendrix, Bob Dylan, Jefferson Airplane, Grateful Dead) were associated with the 1960s. In terms of approval ratings the Beatles score the highest at 81%, followed by Elvis Presley at 79%, the Eagles at 77% Johnny Cash with 76%, and recently deceased Michael Jackson locked with the still active Rolling Stones at 75%.

The common denominator between generations seems to be the Beatles. The Fab Four from Liverpool continue to garner admiration from listeners well entrenched or born years after their 1970 breakup. The Beatles finish just behind Michael Jackson on this Pew Research list of twenty major acts for younger listeners between ages 16-29. They are actually third in the 30-49 grouping behind Jackson and easy listening rock band the Eagles. John, Paul, George and Ringo are fourth amongst the 65 and older crowd and tops for those performers who began their careers in the 1960s or later. Finally the Beatles are phenomenally popular with baby boomers aged 50-64. The number of those saying they “like” the British legends “a lot” stands at a lofty 65%.

Poll: Pennsylvania is thirtieth "healthiest" state, Delaware ranks sixth

Another round of nationwide surveying from the Gallup organization over the first half of 2009 indicates that Pennsylvania has dropped to the 30th healthiest state in America.

Vermont wins the award for healthiest state in the annual assessment with Kentucky finishing last on the scorecard. The Gallup Healthways Well-Being Index rates each state generating a composite score and ranking based on four simple questions to nearly 180,000 questionare responders nationwide. The questions asked whether an individual smokes, did they eat healthy all day yesterday; in the last seven days, or how many days did you exercise for thirty minutes or more, and in the last seven days, on how many days did you have five or more servings of fruits and vegetables?

Extremely subjective questioning just begs for erratic data culled from responses, yet studies like this from Gallup and other organizations such as the American Public Health Association show similarities and consistency in their figures. The APHA study from December of last year also found Vermont to be the healthiest state followed by Hawaii, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Utah, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Idaho and Maine. Gallup’s study had Vermont and Hawaii ranked first and second as well with Maine, New Hampshire and Idaho also in their top-nine placements.

Pennsylvania meanwhile lags behind the national average scoring a 62.1 index rating. That is down 0.9-point from last year, a full seven-points off Vermont’s pace and less than five points ahead of Kentucky’s 57.2 rating, worst in the country. Delaware residents meanwhile have reason to applaud their healthy lifestyle. The First State is sixth ranked on the Gallup list with a 64.7 rating and two-point increase from last year. New Jersey ranks near the middle of the list (24th) but above the national average with a score of 63.2, down 0.8 points from 2008.

Nationally it appears that Americans are living less healthy indicated by a substantial drop from 63.7 to 62.6 over the past year. Perhaps interestingly many of the states whose population's rank as least healthy are also ones showing the most resistance to government proposals of health care reform. The lower range of states is found almost exclusively in the Southeast, Great Lakes and Lower-Midwestern regions.

Broken down by each category the list ranks Utah as having the best score on its rate of non-smokers – Kentucky and West Virginia are tied for worse. Vermont residents exercise the most per-week with Ohioans coming in last, New Mexico has the healthiest eating population with Arkansas scoring the lowest and Vermont also wins the award for balanced diet with North Dakota ranking at the bottom.

Only ten-states showed any kind of healthy increase from 2008 to 2009. Delaware’s two point bump was good for third with South Dakota at 2.7, the highest increase of any state. On the flipside Arkansas plummeted 3.4 points over the past year, far and away the worst drop for any state. The District of Columbia was not ranked by this survey.

Poll: Conservatives outnumber liberals both nationally and in Pennsylvania

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Self-identifying conservatives continue to outnumber liberals by a wide margin across the United States and in Pennsylvania. Their nationwide wide lead is nineteen percentage points (40-21%) and the conservative to liberal margin in the Keystone State is seventeen-points, ranking thirtieth in the country.

These were the findings of another in a series of state-by-state polls conducted by the Gallup organization tracking party identification trends across America. Gallup data reflects a relatively steady and consistent partisan split since the early-90s. Over that time the number of people considering themselves to be politically conservative has ranged from 39-43%, while those describing themselves as liberal has been between 18-23%. Echoing these figures, a recent Washington Post survey of over a thousand adults nationwide showed conservatives at 38%, liberals at 20% and moderates leading with 39% of the adult population.

The Gallup study meanwhile took a look at each state through a series of interviews that included over 4,500 in New Jersey and better than 9,800 in Pennsylvania. The Garden State at a modest six-percent was seventh lowest ranked on the list in terms of conservative partisan advantage. Pennsylvania meanwhile showed a seventeen-point lead for conservatives, and those on the political right lead by 22% in Delaware, ranking the First State sixteenth in the country.


Giving credence to the sentiment that the United States is a fairly evenly divided country, Gallup’s previous survey as reported here shows a solid fourteen-point for edge for Democrats over Republicans. In only five states (Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Alaska, Alabama) do Republicans have a statistically significant advantage over Democrats. Conservatives meanwhile have a lead over liberals in forty-eight states with only the District of Columbia, Massachusetts and Vermont showing either a surplus of liberals or a virtual deadlock between the two sides.

Sometimes a noticeably wide gap will appear between the two. Alabama is the most statistically conservative state at 49% and is tied for second lowest in its rate of liberals (15%) making for a thirty-four point gap. That said Republicans have only a modest six-point edge over Democrats in the state of Alabama. The widest gap for a state between conservative and Republican affiliation is in Arkansas. The Democratic tradition is still strong in the Natural State but the socially conservative population of recent decades makes for an almost distorted looking gap of forty-two percentage points.

Pennsylvania is one of the more statistically balanced states in the country if looked at it in terms of Democratic affiliation being balanced out by generally opposing conservative ideology. The seventeen-point edge for conservatives in the Keystone State is nearly identical to the sixteen-percent lead Democrats hold over Republicans. This perhaps is a primary reason for the state’s highly competitive reputation in elections at various levels. Although Democratic candidates have won the last five Presidential elections, and Barack Obama did particularly well here in 2008, both the previous two elections were reasonably close. Democrats and Republicans have also split the last twenty-four election since 1916.

Poll: Toomey takes surprise lead in Pennsylvania Senate race

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The fascinating story of three Senatorial candidates in the state of Pennsylvania continues to make waves nationally.

First, Republican Pat Toomey a former member of the House of Representatives who narrowly lost to one Arlen Specter in a 2004 primary challenge by less than two percentage points. Secondly, that same Arlen Specter is now a Democrat and running for his political life in the face of heavy scrutiny. Thirdly there is upstart Democratic Congressmen Joe Sestak who unseated ten-term incumbent Curt Weldon in 2006 and now has his sights set on even bigger things.

Rasmussen Reports which showed a Specter lead of eleven-point over Toomey just two months ago suddenly has the Republican challenger up by twelve in their latest poll of the Keystone State. Toomey’s 48-36% lead (12% remain undecided) signifies a rather stunning turn of events. Pennsylvania’s social and politically moderate status often makes for a good bellwether indicator of what lies ahead in upcoming midterm or Presidential election races. If this remains true in 2009 it looks as though sunny skies may just be on the horizon for a GOP desperate for a political turnaround.

Arlen Specter’s problems don’t even begin with Toomey but they might end there. According to the Rasmussen survey Specter’s now has a 43-54% approval to disapproval rating amongst Pennsylvanians and his recent and highly publicized town hall meeting on the topic of health care reform was more of a battle of attrition than exchange of ideas.

If that’s not enough, Specter is getting whacked from both ends of the political spectrum. Primary challenger Joe Sestak has at least an outside shot at the Democratic nomination although he currently trails Specter by thirteen-points in the upcoming primary. But even if Specter does survive it will likely be his second straight primary battle and may weaken his chances of keeping his Senate seat in the fall. Sestak the upstart is actually in better position to take Toomey head on according to the Rasmussen poll. His deficit is a modest eight-points (43-35%) with a large segment of Pennsylvania voters (18%) still undecided on either candidate.

The struggles for Democrats in Pennsylvania and nationwide are often reflected by their support of President Obama’s increasingly unpopular health care reform proposals. According to a recent Gallup survey just 43% approve of the President’s handling of the issue and an almost identical number (42%) of Pennsylvanians support the President’s plan for health care overhaul according to Rasmussen.

Not everyone foresees a doom and gloom scenario for Specter and the Democrats however, even if it seems clear they now face an uphill battle. Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post pointed towards a possible turning point for Senator Specter coming out of these recent town hall meetings. Suggesting that it’s imperative that he redefines himself now as a Democrat and effectively gets his message across starring in the face of tough opposition, Specter actually has an opportunity. Philadelphia-based Democratic media consultant Saul Shorr agrees with that sentiment.

The town hall confrontation worked to Specter's advantage, affording him the
opportunity to defend the President's plan in a high-profile public setting…The
town halls are the best thing that has happened to him. It makes him a Democrat.
– Chris Cillizza (Washington Post), Saul Shorr (Democratic media consultant)

The 2010 Senate race is one chalked full of interesting sets of circumstances. Pennsylvanians rejected the policies of President Bush in 2006 and voted heavily for Democrat Barack Obama in 2008. But the political climate is subject to rapid changes in temperature when placed on the hot stove of social turmoil and an economic recession. If the statistically improbable turn in these latest Senate polls serve as any kind of proof to that end, then be sure to stay tuned as the political drama in Pennsylvania continues to unfold.

Poll: Obama approval rating in Pennsylvania, fourteenth highest in nation

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President Obama’s approval rating in Pennsylvania through his first five and half months in office stood at 65%. The Keystone state ranked fourteenth in the nation regarding its support for the President and surpassed the overall 63% approval rating nationally Obama enjoyed through the month of June.

These were the findings of a newly released Gallup poll measuring the President’s popularity from state-to-state over the first several months of his term in office. The survey was conducted by interviews of over 81,000 adults, over 5,000 of which reside in Pennsylvania, from January 21st through June 30th.

As Gallup is quick to point out, the results do not include Obama’s downturn in polls since July. Gallup in particular at one point had the President’s approval down to just 52% a couple of weeks ago before a slight rebound of late has him settling back to the mid and upper-50s range. A ten-poll average of figures released since late-July have the President’s overall rating pegged at 55%, some eight points less than the totals collected from this Gallup study completed six weeks ago.


Still the ordering of states ranked by their approval for the President has remained largely unchanged through early-August. As of this end of June survey only two states (Alaska, Wyoming) approved of Obama’s performance by less than 50% and none showed an approval to disapproval disparity of less than ten percentage points in his favor.
The President enjoyed approval ratings of better than 70% in nine states/districts (District of Columbia, Hawaii, Vermont, Maryland, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York, Illinois, Rhode Island) representing nine of the ten most supportive “blue” states in the last election. Only Delaware - no doubt bolstered by home state Vice Presidential nominee Joe Biden on the ticket - was one of the ten most Pro-Obama states in 2008 that now ranks outside the top-ten in approval rating.

By and large President Obama scores highest just where one might expect. The typically left-leaning states of recent elections in the Northeast, Upper-Midwest and Pacific Coast regions go strongest for the Democratic President. Conversely the President struggles most with populations in the Southeast, Lower-Midwest and the old Western Frontier.

Obama’s best showing in a “red” state carried by John McCain in the last election would be North Dakota where he scores an approval rating in line with his then national average of 63%. In the five most competitive states from the 2008 election that Obama won or lost by five percentages points or less his cumulative approval stood at about 60%. As far as his approval in states won in 2008 the President does worst in Colorado with a 55% rating and ranking of 44.

In addition to the President’s 65% approval rating in Pennsylvania, ranking as his fourteenth most supportive state, New Jersey ranks tenth with a 69% rating for Obama through June. Delaware as mentioned above has sagged in comparison to other “blue” states but Obama still pulls in a 60% approval in the First State, good for 31st on the list.

Poll: Christie leads Corzine by double-digits in New Jersey

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After two months worth of heavy campaigning and fierce attacks aimed at his opponent New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine is essentially back to where he began.

A new Rasmussen poll has Corzine trailing Republican nominee Chris Christie by a margin of 50-37%. The thirteen-point spread shows a widening gap between the two candidates and comes as unpleasant news to the sitting Democratic Governor who seemed to be on the rebound just a month ago.

As previously reported here in the beginning of July, Governor Corzine had begun to close the gap between he and his Republican opponent. Rasmussen Reports showed that Corzine was trailing Christie by seven percentage points – a deficit to be certain but not an impossible hole to dig out of. The now current thirteen-point lead for Chris Christie holds steady when “leaners” are included and the margin remains unchanged from initial polls taken back in June after he secured the Republican nomination.

Not surprisingly 84% of New Jersey Republicans now support Christie’s campaign for Governor. The truly disastrous numbers for Corzine however are that only 64% of Democrats favor the sitting Governor and Christie leads by a whopping 45-points amongst "unaffiliated" voters. Rasmussen poll numbers also indicate that Corzine’s approval rating with New Jersey voters has dropped to 37%. President Obama who has been called upon to stump for the embattled Governor still has a 56% approval rating in New Jersey, but now only 38% of Garden State residents think Obama’s campaigning will actually boost Corzine’s chances of victory in the fall.

The Rasmussen sample of 500-voters remains relatively small and even they point to historical trends that have shown Democratic politicians in New Jersey rebounding late in campaign seasons. That said major publications like Time magazine were quick to jump on the bad news in a recent issue pointing to the “re-election woes” for Corzine. Furthermore a host of other polls show similarly grim numbers for the Democratic Governor.

Research 2000/Daily Kos figures have Christie leading 48-40% and Corzine’s approval rating buried at 35%. Monmouth University meanwhile shows the Republican challenger leading by fourteen-points amongst likely voters. Public Policy Polling reflected those totals and closely mirrored the Rasmussen survey by showing Christie with a 50-36% lead over New Jersey Governor Corzine.

Perhaps it is premature to call the race a long shot for the sitting Governor. After all, Democrats outnumber Republicans by fourteen-points in New Jersey and the large block of unaffiliated voters (46%) tends to lean poitically left in the Garden State. Still with less than three months remaining until Election Day its safe to say the Corzine Campaign is trending down if not out.

Poll: Americans closely divided on abortion, regionally divided by religion

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A recent Gallup survey has shed some light on current religious affiliations and the divided opinions Americans have on the issue of abortion.

Recent polling of nearly 180,000 interviews nationwide indicates that the public is divided almost evenly on the topic of abortion. Religious views that often impact an individual’s stance on that issue however differ considerably from state-to-state and region-to-region. Non-Catholic Christians continue to be in the majority with adherence of over 54% of the country. The highest concentration of this religious denomination is in the Deep South of the United States, often referred to as the “Bible Belt”.

Mississippi and Alabama at 81% each have the largest number of Protestants and other Non-Catholic Christians. The ten most “Christian” states can all be found in the south or lower Midwest and are all predominantly non-Catholic Christian by 70% or more. More than 24% of Americans affiliate with Catholicism, the largest religious denomination in the world. Catholics are less concentrated to any one region of the country although it’s clear many northeastern states are highest in numbers.

Rhode Island at 53% has the highest number of Catholics, followed by Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey and New York. Six other states have Catholic populations between 30-40% although they (Vermont, Wisconsin, Illinois, Louisiana, New Mexico, and California) are dispersed throughout the rest of the country.

The Jewish citizenry of America makes up less than two percent of the overall population. In certain states Jews are barely traceable in numbers but others have quite high populations. At seven percent New York State has the highest percentage of Jews with New York City as the focal point of that concentration. Jews are far and away most numerous in large urban areas such as the aforementioned New York City, Washington D.C., Boston, Philadelphia, Miami, and Los Angeles.

Religious affiliation plays a large role on one’s abortion stance and for the most part these figures from states and regions are skewed towards one major party or the other.

Gallup and ABC News/Washington Post recently polled Americans on their opinion regarding the always hot topic of abortion. The ABC poll shows that a solid majority of Americans (55%) still believe abortion should be legal in most or all cases. Gallup results on the other hand suggest that a solid majority (78%) think abortion should be legal in “some” or all instances.

For the first time in several years however the number of those considering themselves pro-life (47%) is nearly identical to those who claim to be pro-choice (46%). These figures actually mark a decline in what seemed like exaggerated Gallup figures from three months ago that placed pro-lifers at an historic high of 51%. Still the 47-46% split marks the first time since late-2001 that as many or more Americans claim to be pro-life as pro-choice.

Many factors go in the deciding what candidates or political parties individual Americans choose to support most frequently. There is an undeniable correlation to be made between abortion views, religion and region however. The Deep South has the highest concentration of Christians, Protestants and active Church-goers in the country. Generally speaking this is also the most pro-life region in America and the most faithfully voting Republican block to boot. The more pro-choice Democratic Party unsurprisingly does better in northeastern and Pacific Rim states that include higher than average percentages of Catholics, Jews, Atheists and other religions.

Poll: Public remains leery as consumers line up for "Cash for Clunkers"

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Automakers rave, consumers line up but the hundreds of thousands and the Obama administration claims it will save jobs and rev up the economy. Nearly a billion dollars spent with potentially billions more on the way most American’s views on “Cash for Clunkers” however remain unchanged.

Rasmussen who previously released the results of a poll had not tracked public opinion on the topic since mid-June. Their figures indicated considerable resistance to the program. 54% opposed “Cash for Clunkers” against just 35% who supported the plan, but as previously mentioned the Rasmussen data was collected before the program had a chance to reveal any success or failure.

A month an a half later however the latest poll findings reveal a majority of Americans (54%) now oppose any more government funding of the program past the $950-million already spent. Just 33% think that “Cash for Clunkers” should be extended. The fate of the program now rests in the Senate having already culled enough votes in the House for increased funding. Interestingly now having seen the plan in action a plurality of Americans claim the program to have been “a good idea”. The 44-38% positive to negative split flies in the face of majority opposition to extending the program according to the Rasmussen survey.

Automakers are strongly unified in their support for the “Cash for Clunkers”. From their standpoint the program has already been a huge success, driving up profits while implementing an environmental upside that functions like rocket fuel for an otherwise dismal auto industry.

Not everyone is convinced of course. In addition to the majority of Americans who were leery of the program from the outset and now oppose any extension, Congressional Republicans and conservatives in the media are quick to criticize. The program, they contend, creates little more than artificial demand. While most are surprised and pleased to the speed in which “Cash for Clunkers” has taken off, it would appear to some that these create only short term economic benefits balanced against more reckless spending by the government.



It would seem “Cash for Clunkers” has inspired at least a minor surge in consumer confidence which according to Gallup has currently reached its highest level since early-June. The same poll however alludes to the decline in weekly spending, half it what it was a year ago, as the major economic concern moving forward.

Wall Street continues to celebrate with its best July since 1997 and the
S&P's first closing above 1,000 since last November. Auto dealers and auto
companies enjoy sharply higher sales as a government stimulus effort ("cash for
clunkers") finally got consumers into the showroom. Still, even as consumer
confidence improved, consumer spending behavior declined, suggesting Main Street
has missed the party -- at least, to this point. – Dennis Jacobe, Chief
Economist (Gallup)

We will know shortly whether or not “Cash for Clunkers” lives to see another go-round. The long-term economic benefits of the program however will not reveal themselves so quickly. Could this finally prove to be the road to recovery the automotive industry needs and a lasting economic boost for an ailing economy at large? Or will it turn out to be a clunker of program?

Poll: Pennsylvania ranks 20th most Democratic state

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The Keystone State which supported President Obama by better than ten percentage points in 2008 and has gone “blue” in the last five elections ranks as the 20th most Democratic state in America.

This is according to the results of a massive Gallup study conducted over the first six months of 2009 interviewing over 160,000 U.S. adults. Neighboring states New Jersey and Delaware rank ninth and twenty-ninth respectively.

Widely viewed as a competitive swing-state, but one that went heavily for Obama and the Democrats in 2008, Pennsylvania’s number twenty placement shouldn’t come as a surprise. Only in California did Gallup interview more than the 9,809 adults from Pennsylvania, the results showing a net advantage of sixteen percentage points for the Dems in Pa. These totals mirror closely State Department statistics that show the Democrats with a 51-37% edge over Republicans in the Keystone State.

Gallup weighs their large samples using predetermined social and demographic data obtained through prior surveys. The support shown for either major party is a combination of those directly affiliating with one or the other, or independents that lean towards the Democratic or Republican parties. Interestingly Gallup also found Pennsylvania to have the lowest number (25%) of self identifying independents in the country. Rhode Island was the highest at 50%.

Nationwide Democrats hold strong in their advantage over the GOP. Only five states lean moderately or heavily Republican; Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Alaska and Alabama. Thirty-eight states including Washington D.C. meanwhile lean towards the Democrats – some by wide margins. Thirteen of those states show Democratic advantages of better than twenty percent, with the District of Columbia, Massachusetts, Hawaii, Maryland, Vermont, Rhode Island, Illinois, New York and Connecticut all at a margin of 25% or greater.

Not every state that leans towards the Democrats votes that way however, at least speaking in terms of Presidential elections. West Virginia showed a 53-33% advantage for the Dems but the state has voted convincingly for Republican President’s in the last three elections. The state that best reflects Pennsylvania in its identification breakdown is Kentucky also showing a 16% advantage for Democrats. President Obama lost that state however by better than sixteen-points in 2008 and Kentucky has sided with Republican candidates overall in ten of the last fourteen Presidential elections.

In addition to the Gallup survey the National Journal ranked the most liberal and conservative states based on their House delegation composite scores. The methodology isn’t exactly clear, but the Journal did show figures that mirror the Gallup poll. Pennsylvania was lumped in as one of twenty-four “centrist” states with a liberal leaning composite score of 52.7 – nearly identical to the percentage (53%) identifying as Democrats in the Gallup study.

Gallup’s bottom line indicates that the margin of support of Democrats over Republicans continues to hold steady over the first half of 2009 from the second half of 2008. Although the Democratic advantage nationally has shrunken in recent months most of the switching has been toward self identifying independents rather than an increase of Republicans.

While the Republican Party is still able to compete in elections if they enjoy
greater turnout from their supporters or greater support for its candidates from
independent voters, the deck is clearly stacked in the Democratic Party's favor
for now. – Jeffrey M. Jones (Gallup)

Poll: Phillies are seventh most popular team in baseball

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A season after winning the World Series the Philadelphia Phillies rank as the seventh most popular team in baseball.

This is according to the results of a July Harris Interactive poll surveying 2,177 adults nationwide. Another recent Harris study finds that Tiger Woods is America’s favorite athlete and a six-month old poll shows professional football claiming the crown as the most popular sport in the United States now for nearly a quarter-century.

Harris Interactive is one of the few major national polls that track the opinions of sports fans in addition to their regular list of surveys on political, economic and social issues.

The Phillies number seven ranking is behind high profile teams such as the Yankees, Red Sox, Braves, Cubs, Dodgers and Cardinals. Oddly the Phils placement is actually down one spot, from sixth place in 2008 in spite of their World Series Title from last October. That sixth position was also achieved back in 2004 the year the Phillies moved into Citizens Bank Park and is up from 18th in 2007, the team’s lowest ranking of the past decade.

The least popular team according to the survey is the Toronto Blue Jays, although Canadian fans were not polled by Harris. Amongst American teams the Kansas City Royals at 29th overall were lowest supplanting last year’s bottom feeder the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

41% of adults say they follow Major League Baseball although the overall impact of the Harris study remains skewed towards non-fans who accounted for the other 59%. Baseball is most popular amongst older males residing in the eastern United States, generally well educated and with higher than average income levels.

The New York Yankees rank as the most popular team for the seventh straight year. The Boston Red Sox however at 21% are the team a plurality of those polled said they believe will win the 2009 World Series. The Yankees and Dodgers ranked a close second and third at 19% and 18% respectively with the Phillies coming in a distant fourth accounting for 7% of the predictions.

For the fourth straight year golfer Tiger Woods holds the honor of America’s favorite sports star. Woods wins amongst most key demographics with only younger voters choosing Michael Jordan. Amazingly some eleven years since his final game played as a Chicago Bull Jordan still ranks second on the list ahead of current favorites Lebron James, Kobe Bryant, Derek Jeter, Jeff Gordon and Peyton Manning. No female athletes cracked the overall top-ten but Serena Williams and her sister Venus rank one and two respectively amongst the women. Also on the list are racecar driver Danica Patrick, WNBA star Candace Parker, soccer player Mia Hamm and tennis player Maria Sharapova tied for sixth with golfer Annika Sorenstam.

The NFL meanwhile continues its dominance as the most popular sport in America. Its popularity has ranged between 29-33% each year since 2003, currently situated at 31% in this most recent Harris poll. Coming in at a distant second place baseball with 16% is at its highest point of popularity in over a decade, but well below the mid-20 percentiles achieved in the early-80s. College football ranks a healthy third with 12% of those claiming it to be their favorite sport with auto racing, men’s pro basketball, hockey and men’s college basketball between percentages of eight and five percent.

While interesting and well researched the Harris poll does fail to offer clarity in one important area. The overall popularity of a sport cannot be measured simply by how many individuals claim one particular as their favorite. Questions to their large sample of 2,388 adults did not ask what sports each responder is a fan of. This might help explain while professional basketball ranks just a single percentage point ahead of hockey (6-5%) despite it being vastly more popular in terms of overall revenue and market share.

Still Harris Interactive is one of the precious few giving us insight to public opinion on topics outside of the world of politics and weighty social issues.