READ FULL STORY HEREDepending on which poll you reference President Obama’s approval ratings have seemingly been locked into place for several months now.
Typically in the 45-50% range the President has suffered through a prolonged stretch of mediocre popularity ever since the health care issue became a central focus last summer. Many are quick to suggest that the path to reelection for Obama is likely to be steep and treacherous. According at least to one reputable pollster however the effect of a President’s popularity less than a year and a half into their first term serves as little to no barometer in assessing their chances for reelection.
According to Gallup President Obama’s approval rating for the week ending May 30th reached a new low of 46%. It has since rebounded some, currently situated at 50% as of yesterday, June 2nd. While these figures are fairly moribund by most standards when comparing them to the popularity of Commander in Chief’s at the same point in their respective Presidencies a mixed bag of evidence appears.
Gallup compared the historical approval ratings of President Obama and his eleven most recent processors who resided in the White House dating back to Harry Truman. Seven of the eleven were either reelected or won their own term while serving as President due to their assumed role to the position following a death in office. Two other Presidents (Jimmy Cater, George H.W. Bush) were defeated for reelection. Gerald Ford was also defeated running for his own term as sitting President after serving out the final two and half years of Richard Nixon’s second-term ended abruptly by scandal and resignation. The assassination of John F. Kennedy meanwhile cut short his Presidency after only 34-months.
President Obama has reached his 500th day as the nation’s 44th President. Here is a list of where the other aforementioned Commander’s in Chief stood at the same point in their Presidencies;
44) Barack Obama – 46%
43) George W. Bush – 70%
42) Bill Clinton – 46%
41) George H.W. Bush – 67%
40) Ronald Reagan – 45%
39) Jimmy Carter – 44%
38) Gerald Ford – 46%
37) Richard Nixon – 55%
36) Lyndon Johnson – 67%
35) John F. Kennedy – 71%
34) Dwight Eisenhower – 62%
33) Harry Truman – 33%
The overall 500-day average between the eleven most recent Presidents of 59% means that Barack Obama lingers well behind the statistical norm. A deeper look however reveals that such a figure is bereft of much substance at least in terms of what it means for the overall life of a Presidency.
Five other Presidents; Harry Truman, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton also had approval ratings at 46% or worse 500-days into their terms. While Carter and Ford failed to win in the next election Bill Clinton won easily in 1996 and Reagan did so in a landslide in 1984. Harry Truman on the other hand had carried lifeless approval ratings for much of his first term but never the less staged one of the most improbable political upsets in American history in 1948.
On the other hand strong approval ratings early into a Presidency serve as no guarantee for future success. George H.W. Bush lost convincingly to Bill Clinton in 1992 despite carrying impressive approval ratings of 67% into the middle of 1990. His son George W. meanwhile only narrowly won reelection in 2004 despite a 9/11 bolstered approval rating of 70% in June of 2002. Bush would end up leaving office in January of 2009 with some of the worst approval ratings for a President in history.
Lyndon Johnson was already in the midst of his first full term as President having won in a landslide in 1964. Yet his impressive popularity 500-days into office did not translate well down the road. Johnson’s approval would fall into the low-40 percentiles by late-1967 as the controversial Vietnam War engulfed his Presidency and overshadowed his domestic achievements. Johnson won with over 61% of the popular vote in 1964 but found the political landscape too treacherous to navigate and chose not to run for reelection four years later.
Then again not all examples of high popularity early into a Presidency are a fluke. Dwight Eisenhower was consistently well liked over his eight years in office and won reelection in a landslide in 1956. Richard Nixon may have left the White House in disgrace but his approval rating of 55% at day number 500 paved the way for an historic landslide victory over his Democratic rival in 1972. We’ll never know what political fate was held in store for John F. Kennedy’s first term. His approval ratings of 71% as of June, 1962 and 58% upon his death in November, 1963 however made a second-term appear imminent had it not been felled by an assassins bullet.
As it stands as of this morning President Obama has an overall first-term approval rating of nearly 55%. While his level of popularity in recent months has clearly diminished Obama supporters need to look back no further than the previous Democratic President for inspiration. Bill Clinton’s 46% approval rating according to Gallup matches that of Obama’s 500-days into their Presidencies. Furthermore Clinton won reelection by eight and a half percentage-points despite posting an overall first-term approval of just 49.6%.
Typically in the 45-50% range the President has suffered through a prolonged stretch of mediocre popularity ever since the health care issue became a central focus last summer. Many are quick to suggest that the path to reelection for Obama is likely to be steep and treacherous. According at least to one reputable pollster however the effect of a President’s popularity less than a year and a half into their first term serves as little to no barometer in assessing their chances for reelection.
According to Gallup President Obama’s approval rating for the week ending May 30th reached a new low of 46%. It has since rebounded some, currently situated at 50% as of yesterday, June 2nd. While these figures are fairly moribund by most standards when comparing them to the popularity of Commander in Chief’s at the same point in their respective Presidencies a mixed bag of evidence appears.
Gallup compared the historical approval ratings of President Obama and his eleven most recent processors who resided in the White House dating back to Harry Truman. Seven of the eleven were either reelected or won their own term while serving as President due to their assumed role to the position following a death in office. Two other Presidents (Jimmy Cater, George H.W. Bush) were defeated for reelection. Gerald Ford was also defeated running for his own term as sitting President after serving out the final two and half years of Richard Nixon’s second-term ended abruptly by scandal and resignation. The assassination of John F. Kennedy meanwhile cut short his Presidency after only 34-months.
President Obama has reached his 500th day as the nation’s 44th President. Here is a list of where the other aforementioned Commander’s in Chief stood at the same point in their Presidencies;
44) Barack Obama – 46%
43) George W. Bush – 70%
42) Bill Clinton – 46%
41) George H.W. Bush – 67%
40) Ronald Reagan – 45%
39) Jimmy Carter – 44%
38) Gerald Ford – 46%
37) Richard Nixon – 55%
36) Lyndon Johnson – 67%
35) John F. Kennedy – 71%
34) Dwight Eisenhower – 62%
33) Harry Truman – 33%
The overall 500-day average between the eleven most recent Presidents of 59% means that Barack Obama lingers well behind the statistical norm. A deeper look however reveals that such a figure is bereft of much substance at least in terms of what it means for the overall life of a Presidency.
Five other Presidents; Harry Truman, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton also had approval ratings at 46% or worse 500-days into their terms. While Carter and Ford failed to win in the next election Bill Clinton won easily in 1996 and Reagan did so in a landslide in 1984. Harry Truman on the other hand had carried lifeless approval ratings for much of his first term but never the less staged one of the most improbable political upsets in American history in 1948.
On the other hand strong approval ratings early into a Presidency serve as no guarantee for future success. George H.W. Bush lost convincingly to Bill Clinton in 1992 despite carrying impressive approval ratings of 67% into the middle of 1990. His son George W. meanwhile only narrowly won reelection in 2004 despite a 9/11 bolstered approval rating of 70% in June of 2002. Bush would end up leaving office in January of 2009 with some of the worst approval ratings for a President in history.
Lyndon Johnson was already in the midst of his first full term as President having won in a landslide in 1964. Yet his impressive popularity 500-days into office did not translate well down the road. Johnson’s approval would fall into the low-40 percentiles by late-1967 as the controversial Vietnam War engulfed his Presidency and overshadowed his domestic achievements. Johnson won with over 61% of the popular vote in 1964 but found the political landscape too treacherous to navigate and chose not to run for reelection four years later.
Then again not all examples of high popularity early into a Presidency are a fluke. Dwight Eisenhower was consistently well liked over his eight years in office and won reelection in a landslide in 1956. Richard Nixon may have left the White House in disgrace but his approval rating of 55% at day number 500 paved the way for an historic landslide victory over his Democratic rival in 1972. We’ll never know what political fate was held in store for John F. Kennedy’s first term. His approval ratings of 71% as of June, 1962 and 58% upon his death in November, 1963 however made a second-term appear imminent had it not been felled by an assassins bullet.
As it stands as of this morning President Obama has an overall first-term approval rating of nearly 55%. While his level of popularity in recent months has clearly diminished Obama supporters need to look back no further than the previous Democratic President for inspiration. Bill Clinton’s 46% approval rating according to Gallup matches that of Obama’s 500-days into their Presidencies. Furthermore Clinton won reelection by eight and a half percentage-points despite posting an overall first-term approval of just 49.6%.
PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / CHARLES DHARAPAK
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