Corzine or Christie? Predicting who will win New Jersey Governor in fifteen questions

READ FULL STORY HERE

With so many polls and talking heads in the media covering the upcoming New Jersey Governor’s election perhaps it’s now time to place some odds and make some predictions.

As mentioned the other day on this site there is a wide range of polling on the issue. Depending on what source and whose numbers you choose to believe Governor Corzine could be primed for reelection or doomed to defeat. The consensus is that this race is locked in a virtual dead-heat with no clear frontrunner. Pollster.com has things exactly even with both Jon Corzine and challenger Chris Christie tied at 42%. Other publications like Survey USA and Quinnipiac seem to be showing a small rebound in Christie’s number over the weekend from polls taken last week that showed the Governor with the advantage. A Monmouth University poll on the other hand is registering some late game movement for Corzine.

Nate Silver from fivethirtyeight.com has been following the coverage closely. Silver poses fifteen “clarifying” questions on the topic of the race for Governor with the purpose of getting a better idea of who in fact is primed to win the race regardless of poll numbers or figures lying therein. You are encouraged to view Silver's thoughts on tomorrow’s election in full here but below is an overview.

1) Which Candidate’s Supporters are more enthusiastic? Significant Edge: Christie

2) Which candidate is liable to have the better turnout operation? Significant Edge: Corzine

3) Is one of the candidates a challenger to an incumbent, who might benefit from the “incumbent rule”? Significant Edge: Christie

4) Do the demographics of the undecided vote, or the weakly-attached third-party vote, favor either of the candidates? Edge: Corzine

5) Which candidate got the more favorable coverage in the morning newspaper, or on the local evening news, on the Sunday before the election? Toss-up

6) Which candidate has the better “elevator pitch”, particularly as encapsulated by the commercials they've run in the 48 hours before the election? Edge: Christie

7) Which candidate has a headwind at their back from the national political environment, or has a message that squares better with the national political mood? Which candidate's party is liable to have the better Election Night nationwide? Edge: Christie

8) Does either candidate begin with a built-in lead from early or absentee voting? Edge: Corzine

9) Which candidate, if any, stands to benefit from upballot or downballot races? Slight Edge: Christie

10) Which candidate stands to benefit from cellphone-only voters, who may not be included in the polls? Slight Edge: Corzine

11) Has the polling in previous elections in the state, or in similar elections in similar states, tended systematically to underestimate the performance of either candidate's party? Toss-up

12) Which candidate attracted more people to their campaign appearances in the state over the last two weeks of the campaign? Slight Edge: Corzine

13) Which candidate got more contributions over the last six weeks of the campaign from voters within the state? Significant Edge: Christie

14) Which candidate has run the more positive, optimistic campaign, and will leave voters feeling better about themselves as they exit the polling place? Edge: Christie

15) Which candidate's party controls the state's electoral and judicial apparatus, in the event of a recount or otherwise disputed election? Significant Edge: Corzine

Silver’s final scorecard tally is then adjusted to reflect not only which candidate won the majority of questions/categories but to what extent. If we were to allocate a number to each description it would wind up with three-points being distributed to either candidate with a “significant edge” in a category, two-points for a basic “edge” and one-point for a “slight edge”. The two questions being rated as “toss-up” categories using Silver’s description would simply give zero points to either candidate.

This brings us to a 16-12 Chris Christie lead over Governor Corzine as we are less than 24-hours from Election Day. Broken down further we can claim Christie as a 4:3 favorite in the race or estimate that he has about a 57% chance of becoming New Jersey’s next Governor.

"Obviously, anybody's race, but I'd make Christie about the 4:3 favorite. If Christie wins, it will probably be because of greater enthusiasm among his voters and a slightly more well-rounded close to his campaign. If Corzine wins, it will probably be because of his institutional and organizational advantages in getting his base to the polls." -- Nate Silver, Fivethirtyeight.com

Polls divided in New Jersey, race for Governor remains a toss-up

READ FULL STORY HERE
And down the stretch they come…

In less than four days droves of New Jersey residents will head to their local precincts and cast their vote for Governor. For months the race between sitting Governor Jon Corzine and Republican challenger Chris Christie has grabbed local headlines and peaked interest nationally. The possible bellwether effect being touted by many media pundits will render its first high profile success story or failure for either party this Tuesday November 3rd.

As this election directly relates to the outcome of the impending 2010 midterms will stay unknown for quite some time. Both parties however will surely celebrate a victory and tout it as a sign of things to come. A Christie victory will be the first big step on the road to recovery for a banged up GOP. An upset from vulnerable incumbent Corzine will allow Democrats to drive home the perception that while 2009 has been a shaky year they remain the stronger party.

The last and most important round of polling will be conducted early next week, for now we see some varying results that point to an increasingly tight race.

Real Clear Politics is a useful resource in that it averages out the totals from several recent polls on any number of topics. In the instance of this NJ Governor’s race six major polls have been released over the past week. The cumulative effect shows a narrow lead for Governor Corzine averaging out to 41.8 – 40.5% margin of victory. Independent candidate Christopher Daggett runs a respectable third taking in eleven-percent of the vote.

The problem is not every poll is created equal. Even if the methods used by all polls were both accurate and consistent to one another the relative size of the survey would also play a factor. Far and away the two largest of the six surveys being captured by RCP are from the reliable polling organizations Rasmussen Reports and Quinnipiac Uniersity. What is interesting then is the disparity between these two polls. Rasmussen has Republican Christie clinging to a 46-43% lead in the race for Governor with Chris Daggett falling further behind at 8%. Quinnipiac on the other hand polling 1,267 likely voters in New Jersey now projects a 43-38% lead for Governor Corzine and Daggett at 13% of the vote also scoring with greater impact.

Any number of reasons could explain the eight-point swing gathered between both polls. Looking at each of Corzine and Christie’s favorability ratings is one such indication. According to Rasmussen Governor Corzine has a 44-54% favorable to unfavorable split with New Jersey voters. Chris Christie meanwhile is at 48% and 50% respectively. The Quinnipiac survey meanwhile has Corzine at a 41-52% margin and challenger Christie lagging at a 37-42% figure. With voters in the Garden State as narrowly divided between both challengers as the polls indicate it stands to reason that most will cast their vote for the candidate they simply dislike less.

If the differences between the results from recent Rasmussen and Quinnipiac surveys didn’t already leave plenty of gray area other pollsters show a range of figures as well. A Suffolk University survey gathering data from just 400 likely voters and a staggeringly high number of self-described independents shows Corzine with a nine-point lead. The latest Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of 600 likely voters fits Chris Christie with narrow 42-41% lead. Survey USA who does well with their sampling but asks some curiously odd questions like; “What is your favorite NFL team” and “Are you a Bruce Springsteen fan” has the race locked in a 43-43% dead-heat. Fairleigh Dickinson polling nearly 700-likely voters has Christie inching his way out to a narrow 41-39% lead with two in ten New Jersey voters going for either independent Chris Daggett or some other candidate.

With the race for New Jersery Governor having reached the back stretch two things seem clear in regards to polling. First is that most agree the heated campaign is also a very tight one and could be decided by just a few thousand votes on Election Day. Secondly is that in spite of the closeness being portrayed there is no consensus on a likely winner. Some polling organizations will have clear bragging rights with others wiping the egg off of their faces next Tuesday.

Poll: Public resists sending more troops to Afghanistan, also hesitant on Pakistan

READ FULL STORY HERE

With a majority of the public focused most closely on economic matters at home it’s easy to lose sight of the growing problem facing President Obama and our military in Afghanistan.

This morning the latest round of troubling news appeared as fourteen Americans were killed in two separate helicopter crashes. The President is being pressured from all sides to declare a firm course of action just as the American public remains leery of battle in Afghanistan.

Three recent polls help track the current state of mind being expressed by the public on Afghanistan. CNN/Opinion Research Corporation indicates broad resistance to the idea of sending more American troops into combat. 59% are opposed against just 39% who are in favor of increasing troop levels in Afghanistan. Eight-percent of the public wants to see current levels maintained but a significant block (21%) would like to see a reduction in our fighting forces with an additional 28% in favor of a complete withdraw. 61% of American adults see the war in Afghanistan relating to the greater war on terror following the events of September 11, 2001.

Less than one in three Americans have confidence in the ability of an Afghani government to sustain a democratic government, keeps it citizens safe and root out terror suspects and cells. Perhaps the most eye opening piece of polling from the CNN survey is the 52% of the public who believe Afghanistan has turned into a similar situation faced by America during the Vietnam War.

An ABC/Washington Post survey contradicts those CNN findings somewhat in regards to Vietnam. In their poll just 35% feel the current situation has escalated to being the same as Vietnam against 58% who are still confident America will be able to avoid that. Still the ABC poll illustrates a similar theme to CNN’s findings of an American public who is both uncomfortable and unconfident regarding the situation. 49% against 47% of Americans overall believe the war has not been worth fighting.

Confidence in President Obama’s ability to handle to situation is shrinking with just 45% approving of the job he is doing against 47% who disapprove in that area. Those numbers are down ten-points from a 55-37% margin six-weeks ago. Furthermore over twice as many (63%) believe the Obama administration lacks a coherant plan for handling the situation in Afghanistan as those who do believe (31%) the White House has a clear focus.

Rasmussen Reports takes the issue a step further linking Pakistan to the discussion. As terror attacks continue relentlessly in that country 42% of the public believes victory to be impossible in Afghanistan if Pakistan remains unstable. A quite large percentage of Americans (35%) claim to be undecided on the topic with just 22% thinking it possible for our country to win in Afghanistan if the situation in Pakistan does not improve. 45% of the public believes it possible to still win the war in Afghanistan but a majority of poll responders believe that it either is not possible or remain unsure.

The leeriness of the American public regarding direct military action surfaces to some degree in two separate responses. The first shows that 79% of U.S. voters are concerned about the Taliban taking over Afghanistan with 45% of that block “very” concerned. Still, support for sending troops to combat radical Taliban forces is just 37%, with 34% who are not in favor and 30% who remain uncertain.

How opinion surveys shape public policy & change history

READ FULL STORY HERE

The emphasis placed on public opinion surveys has never been weightier or more obvious than in recent years. Policy is often shaped by the polls, the news media relies upon them and public opinion is often swayed by them.

Andrew Kohut, President of the Pew Research Center recently wrote an article that is well worth taking a look at for anyone interested in the process of opinion polling and how it has shaped the politics of our nation. Kohut’s commentary is brought to us compliments of a broader article from the CQ Press entitled The Politics of News: The News of Politics, 2nd Edition.

Feel free to sift through the full piece posted on the Pew Research Center homepage found here. Below are some cliffs notes and excerpts from the article.

Polls now provide leaders with capital or impoverish them in their efforts to
promote policies. Those who can back up their assertions by pointing to poll
results find the going easier than leaders who cannot. In turn, news
organizations cover policy initiatives differently when programs appear to have
popular support compared with when they do not.

Kohut begins his article detailing the dramatic shift in public opinion and how it has subsequently been recorded in just the past two decades. Starting with the self-assured carefree days of the 1990s when America played its role as world leader and innovator, seemingly with neither threat nor competition. Finishing at the ever-evolving present day and post-9/11 world where our country’s damaged psyche is tempered by our greater concern and stronger focus on the issues. Polling in these times plays an increasingly important role, so much so that the numerical results and conclusions drawn from simple surveys at times overwhelm the actual topic they measure.

The article then reflects back to the 1960s when personal interviewing began to give way to other more sophisticated research technologies. Surveys were generally mailed out to a mass audiences in the early days or done in person. Furthermore there was little competition with Gallup and Harris being two of the only organizations with the finances and facilities to run effective polling.

So conditions were right for the news media to embrace polling. And they did.
The CBS/New York Times poll started regular news surveys in 1975. NBC's
first partner was the Associated Press, and it began polling in 1978.
The ABC/Washington Post poll was launched in 1981.

The impact of this on reporting of the findings of opinion polls is quite clear. In the turbulent late-60s and early-70s effective polling became critical to news organizations following trends in public opinion that were at times rapidly changing. The advent of telephone polling, spearheaded by the likes of reduced long-distance rates from carries like AT&T, to a nation where phone usage was nearly universal by this point changed the landscape. News media publications began to compete with the standard Gallup, Harris and Roper polling organizations. The CBS/New York Times poll began in 1975 and the ABC/Washington Post poll had emerged by 1981.

The Carter administration was the first to endure the effects of full and comprehensive opinion polling from top to bottom. Years later the Reagan administration saw strong public resistance to their plans for intervening in Nicaragua. Secret covert missions were developed in an attempt to keep White House and Pentagon military missions out of the court of public opinion. Kohut asserts that it was this backlash to the effects of polling that in some way influenced public outrage and exposed the more serious Iran-contra dealings.

The polls provided a track record of the impact of the two most significant
steps the [Bush] administration took to secure public approval. First, by
seeking and obtaining a U.N. Security Council vote setting a deadline for Iraqi
withdrawal from Kuwait, the administration transformed public opinion about the
use of force, a transformation well tracked by Gallup's CNN/ USA Today polls.

By the early-90s mass military force against a foreign country was met with resistance by many Americans still rattled by lessons learned from Vietnam. In response to lukewarm polling around the growing Iraq conflict in the Middle East, President Bush skillfully campaigned on the necessity for action always quite informed of the public’s pulse on the issue. Polling advised the President to seek Congressional approval for going to war instead of waiting for economic sanctions to deter Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. The strategy worked. Gulf War I was successful and ended swiftly with American victory just as the President’s own approval ratings skyrocketed largely as result of his handling of the conflict.

The most surprising effect of polling may have come in the late-90s and surrounded President Clinton’s rising public approval even as he was embroiled in scandal. Clinton’s misdeeds involving Monica Lewinsky and resulting in impeachment could have derailed or even ended his Presidency. Instead the public warmed to the President taking a negative view to his harsh treatment from the news media and his accusers. Clinton's approval rating according to a Pew survey jumped ten-points to 71% in the weeks that followed the Lewinsky revelations in 1998.

The reaction of the Bush administration to the feedback from the polls was a lack of reaction. The president continued to promote the plan in meetings across the country. As a result, growing numbers of Americans became aware of the idea, fewer supported it, and more expressed overall disapproval for Bush. He was spending his political capital, but not getting much for it.After his reelection in 2005 President George W. Bush declared a virtual mandate on certain policies, most notably his push for the privitazation of Social Security. While many Americans showed interest in the possibility of a shift in the program as the President campaigned so too did his detractors line up. Public opinion dropped to 46% by March of 2005 down from 58% in December of the previous year.

Bush’s last years in office were mired by the polls as much as the events. The slow response to the Hurricane Katrina disaster in New Orleans in September of 2005 sent his approval ratings spiraling downward. Critical midterm defeats in the fall of 2006 left his Presidency lifeless and Bush carried on for the next two years with anemic ratings measured in the upper-20 and 30-percentiles.

These cases should not be viewed as a celebration of the power of public opinion or the importance of polls. Rather, they illustrate the extent to which public views have played a central role in the course of national affairs since the 1980s. They also provide an opportunity to consider how the emergence of an empowered public has altered the relationship both between the people and the press and the people and its leaders.

Andrew Kohut ends his fascinating article with a list of lessons learned from opinion polling and the limits of surveying even in this day and age. The American people it would seem have great capacity to ignore the media just as the media misjudges the public time and again. Clinton’s rise in popularity despite scandal and the “Bush” brand name crushing even fairly popular proposals during his second term for instance. In 1988 many in the media expected George H.W. Bush’s selection of running mate Dan Quayle would torpedo his chances in the fall. Indeed most Americans held the would-be Vice President in low regard but it didn’t stop the Bush-ticket from winning big that year.

The Republican takeover of Congress in 1995 gave rise to the perception of a conservative movement in American that would doom Clinton and most Democrats for years to came. Polls showed that it was the desire to vote more-anti Democrat than pro-GOP that engineered the midterm landslide of 1994. Clinton won reelection easily two years later however and even bucked the classic “six year itch” by picking up power in Congress in 1998. The Clinton-administration was able to pass welfare reform and NAFTA, despite an opposition Congress, at least in part through its support in the polls. Earlier in his Presidency meanwhile public preference for the Clinton health care plan went from tepid support to strong rejection over a six-month period.

If one thing is true about the American public especially in these ever-changing times is that even a big story has a lifecycle. The attention span of most of the public is limited and reactionary on national matters allowing for dramatic shifts in the electorate over several months. George H.W. Bush found that out the hard way in 1992. Just eighteen-months after he recorded the highest ratings ever for a President he was soundly defeated for reelection. Currently President Obama is also feeling the effects of a fair-weather public that is only as supportive as the next news cycle allows.

It is certainly not unreasonable to think that the public is susceptible to undue persuasion on occasion, but there is a long history of failed attempts to manipulate public opinion. Perhaps the best way to think about public opinion and its relationship to politics and policymaking is that the American public is typically short on facts, but often long on judgment.

Poll: 17% of baseball fans expect Phillies to win World Series

Many will bark jinx at the mere mention of another Phillies trip to the World Series before they have officially taken care of business against the Los Angeles Dodgers. It looks more and more likely however that Philadelphia is on a Fall Classic collision course with the New York Yankees.

In addition to sports fans in the Delaware Valley the folks at Rasmussen Reports are gearing themselves up for the World Series. A just released survey of 1,650 Major League Baseball fans nationwide was conducted on October 17-18. This came after the Phillies and Dodgers had split their first two meetings in Los Angeles and the Yankees captured a 2-0 series lead over the Los Angeles Angels.

41% expect the Yankees to win their 27th World Series this year. The Phillies and Dodgers closely split public opinion with 17% and 16% support respectively and the Angels come in at a distant fourth with just 7%. This is somewhat reflective of polls from late-August that showed 25% of fans thinking the Yankees would win the World Series against 10% who picked the Phillies, 9% who went for the Dodgers and the Angels scoring 6% of voter opinion.

Phillies fans have reason to mock such perceptions of their title chances having already overcome some negative polling in the last two seasons.

Prior to the start of the National League Championship Series unscientific polls of several dozen thousand ESPN members were evenly split on whether they believed the Phillies or Dodgers would reach the World Series. As of this morning 63% of nearly 56,000 votes cast on the ESPN website think the Phillies will win game five tonight and the NL pennant accordingly. Only in California (55%) do a majority of fans from any state side with the Dodgers chances of winning this evening. Not surprisingly Pennsylvania (87%) and Delaware (84%) are most confident for the Phillies.


The results of an Associated Press-Knowledge Networks survey conducted in late-September foresaw a Yankees-Cardinals World Series match up and the Bronx Bombers three times more likely to win a championship over either St. Louis or the Boston Red Sox. The Phillies chances were not mentioned in a follow up article on ESPN.com but the poll did offer baseball some sobering information in their battle for autumn viewership against the NFL. 41% of self-described baseball fans would rather watch a regular season NFL game than an MLB playoff match up.

In Philadelphia however there seems to be a shift in the attention and support of many local sports fans. Long known as one of the nation’s premier football towns Philly has shown hints of recent disillusionment with the Eagles just as they have gone wild for their “Fightin’ Phils”. After all the Phillies are reigning National League and World Series champions. They polished off last season’s Dodgers in five games and are hoping for a repeat performance that could conclude tonight at Citizen’s Bank Park. Their likely opponent the Yankees meanwhile are winners of twenty-six World titles and their stellar 103-59 regular season record was tops in Major League Baseball.

Rasmussen shows a closer gap in the preference baseball fans have towards the four playoff finalists. 27% are rooting for the Yankees to win the World Series, 21% for each the Phillies and Dodgers and another 18% would like to see the Angels take the title.

Harris Interactive conducted some of their own polling around this season’s All Star break. The Yankees were ranked as the most popular MLB team for the seventh straight season. Baseball should expect a boost from dreadful World Series ratings last year as both the Dodgers (fourth) and Phillies (seven) rank high on the list of most popular teams. Despite playing in the large market of Los Angeles the Angels struggle with fans nationwide, ranking just 27th out of thirty teams. Harris estimates that 41% of adults, a common theme in this article, follow Major League Baseball “somewhat” or “closely”.

The assumed Phillies-Yankees series would prove both exciting and intriguing filled with storylines that could carry well into November. While confident nearly half of Phillies fans couldn’t be termed cocky just yet. 51% of them believe their Phillies will win the World Series, but that’s a far cry from the three-quarters of Yankee fans who feel the same about their favorite club.

Poll: Palin plummets, Huckabee leads field of GOP hopefuls for 2012

READ FULL STORY HERE
Two recent polls show a further decline in support for Sarah Palin while Mike Huckabee leads a hypothetical field of Republican candidates for President in 2012.

Sarah’s slide is a rather sudden one after several months of maintaining fairly steady numbers. The presence of the electrifying GOP upstart who joined John McCain’s Presidential ticket last year was greeted warmly by Republicans and many independents alike. Her recent struggles have been reported on by the likes of Gallup and Rasmussen Reports. In late-July Palin’s favorable ratings dropped into the negatives for the first time. Now her numbers amongst adults are mired at a 40% positive against 50% negative split, by far the worst ratings she has received since her introduction to the national stage in late-August of last year.

This is not the first time Palin has seen a dip in her popularity. Her 53% favorability rating after the 2008 Republican Convention marked a high point. It was undercut by the loss of the McCain-Palin ticket in the general election that fall which dropped her numbers to 42% according to Gallup however. Over the next seven months the now former Alaskan Governor saw her favorable and unfavorable figures run about even but this latest poll indicates a considerable spike in negative feelings toward her. While most Republicans (69%) like Sarah Palin a healthy quarter of the party holds a negative view of her. Democrats on the other hand have a strongly negative view of Palin to the tune of a 72-14% unfavorable to favorable margin. Independents meanwhile are also growing disillusion with Palin as her 41-48% favorable to unfavorable ratings atest.

Perhaps due in part to her resignation as Governor of Alaska, criticized in many circles, Palin’s decline has opened the door for other GOP hopefuls. Most notable on this list is former Arkansas Governor and current Fox TV host Mike Huckabee who ran a strong albeit losing campaign for President last year. One woman’s loss is another man’s gain according to polls from Rasmussen that show a six-point decline for Sarah Palin since July that corresponds to a seven-percent improvement for Huckabee.

Overall Huckabee leads a field of four legitimate contenders pulling in support of 29% of likely Republican voters in 2012. Mitt Romeny runs second with support of 24% of the party and Palin as previously mentioned has dropped to third at 18%. Also in the running is former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich at 14% with Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty a distant fifth contender at 4% support. Even worse for Sarah Palin are the 21% of Republicans who say they would least like to see her win the party nomination. The frontrunners Huckabee (9%) and Romney (8%) are both in the single-digits in that category of voter non-preference.

In the event that the battle for the Republican nomination shapes up to be a two-way race both Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are again sitting pretty against Sarah Palin. Romney leads Palin by fifteen-points and Huckabee scores a 55-35% blowout victory on the hypothetical ballot. While fairly irrelevant due to the unlikely scenario that she’d win the Democratic nomination away from President Obama in 2012 Rasmussen also showed Hillary Clinton holding a sizeable 51-39% advantage over Palin in late-July.

In spite of her current struggles Sarah Palin continues to be part of any conversation involving GOP contenders for the 2012 Presidential race. Her autobiography Going Rogue: An American Life is already a best seller still a month before its actual release. Palin’s approval ratings remained high in her home state of Alaska even after the broad disappointment of her resignation this summer. Republicans as a group also remain hopeful for 2012. Rasmussen indicates that 81% of voters think it at least somewhat likely one of their own will defeat President Obama for reelection. 50% think it very likely a Republican administration will move back into the White House come January of 2013.

Poll: Pennsylvania Governor and Senate races heat up

READ FULL STORY HERE

The major races in Pennsylvania may still be a year away but things are already heating up.

Arlen Specter trails Republican challenger Pat Toomey narrowly in his reelection bid for Senate and runs just ahead of fellow Democrat Joe Sestak. Sestak and Toomey meanwhile run neck and neck for the seat in a hypothetical 2010 match up. Tom Corbett is out to a huge early lead in the Republican Gubernatorial primary meanwhile. On the other side “not sure” is the most common response leading a field of Democrats running for Governor.

This information come to us compliments of some just released polling from Rasmussen Reports tracking the preference of voters in Pennsylvania.

Republican Pat Toomey leads Senator Arlen Specter 45-40%. That’s down from a twelve-point advantage in August during the height of Specter’s town hall meetings where he often received highly publicized and harsh treatment from attendees. The Senator’s favorability is up slightly from August as well but still mired in the negatives. Currently 46% of Pennsylvanians have a favorable view of Specter while 52% hold an unfavorable view. Back in April a Rasmussen poll showed Senator trailing Pat Toomey by twenty-one percentage points in his quest to be renominated as a Republican. Many suggest his lagging poll numbers at that point contributed heavily to his party switch. Sure enough Specter runs stronger against Toomey as a Democrat than he does as a Republican.

A tight race for Senate could have been predicted but a legitimate party challenge was something Arlen Specter was hoping to avoid. However, Seventh District Congressman Joe Sestak is picking up steam in his bid to take away the Democratic nomination from the long time Senator Specter. Sestak now trails by just four-points, 46-42%. That is a considerable improvement from Rasmussen polls in August that showed Specter with a thirteen-point lead. Sestak is gaining on Specter while remaining largely unknown to voters. Just 14% hold a very favorable view of the Congressman and 8% hold a very unfavorable view against 30% of voters who don’t know enough about Sestak to offer an opinion.

Perhaps Pennsylvania Democrats are beginning to warm to Sestak’s appeal as a general election candidate. Positioning himself as the only “real Democrat” in the race Sestak is actually now leading Pat Toomey in the hypothetical race for next year’s Senate by a single point, 38-37%. An additional 19% remain unsure but expect that number to shrink as voters learn more about both candidates.

Moving our attention to the race for Governor a scattered field of Democrats compete against one another while the Republicans have a clear favorite. A whopping 37% of Democratic Primary voters are not sure who they plan to support in 2010. Rasmussen’s sample size is quite low polling just 469-likely voters but the results point to a cluttered field of at least five candidates; Dan Onorato (19%), Jack Wagner (14%), Joe Hoeffel (11%), Chris Doherty (6%) and Tom Knox (4%). When combined these five candidates attract only 54% of current voter preference, while one in ten Pennsylvania Democrats also prefer some other candidate.

There is far more clarity on the Republican side of the coin. State Attorney General Tom Corbett continues to hold a vast lead over Congressman Jim Gerlach for the GOP nomination, 54-10%. A sizeable 30% of Republican voters aren’t sure of their preference but Corbett’s lead even in these early stages may prove difficult for Gerlach to overcome. On the personal front 28% of Pennsylvania Republicans hold a very favorable view of Corbett against just 1% who do not. Gerlach meanwhile suffers from lack of name recognition with 37% of primary voters uncertain of what they think about the candidate against 21% who do not hold a strong opinion of Corbett.