Poll: Support for same-sex marriage now the majority viewpoint?

READ FULL STORY HERE

As the battle to uphold or repeal California’s Proposition 8 law rages on in court same sex couples and gay marriage advocates have some reason to rejoice.

For the first time on record a major poll now shows a narrow majority of American voters in favor of allowing gay and lesbian couples the constitutional right to wed. The recent survey conducted by CNN / Opinion Research of 935-registered voters shows that by a margin of 52-46% most believe gays and lesbians have both the constitutional right to get married and have their marriage recognized by law.

In truth these figures were culled from a smaller sample of 496-voters within the overall pool of those surveyed and a substantial margin of error (+/- 4.5%) needs to be considered. Another smaller sample of 513-voters within the broader survey was also asked the question with slightly different language. The word “should” was omitted in favor of emphasizing the “have” in a question regarding the legal marriage rights of same-sex couples. Yet even here nearly half of responders (49%) favored the constitutionality of gay marriage. Combining the scores the CNN polls finds that a small majority of American voters (50.5%) now support the legal right for same-sex marriage against those (48.5%) who do not.

The CNN survey could be hailed as something of a public opinion landmark for gay-rights advocates in their long struggle for full equality under law. Most polls in recent years have shown growing social acceptance of homosexuals in society and culture but in terms of legally recognizing their right to marry it has always stopped short of reaching majority levels.

Gallup polled adults on the topic in May of this year and found support vs. opposition for same-sex marriage still lingered at just 44-53%. In April a CBS / New York Times poll found that 39% of American adults favored granted gay couple the right to marry but a majority either preferred the status of civil unions (24%), or chose to grant no legal recognition whatsoever (30%). ABC News / Washington Post data from February showed a modest 50-47% divide between the number of those opposed to and supporting gay marriage. Last October meanwhile NBC News / Wall Street Journal found 41% of the public strongly or somewhat in favor of same-sex marriage and 49% against.

It will be interesting to see what sort of influence the Proposition 8 battle has on the current levels of support. Are more people tuning in to the debate and expressing greater support for same-sex marriage rights because of the highly publicized court case? And will these numbers settle back in to their recently typical levels of support in the low to mid-40 percentiles once the debate passes? Additionally is the general status quo being echoed by other recent polls that show support for same-sex marriage as still a minority viewpoint and this most recent CNN poll as little more than statistical noise? Or is this new poll simply the first of many to reveal the facts of a growing trend?

More polling is needed to confirm the growing levels of support collected here by CNN / Opinion Research as legitimate. Meanwhile the country focuses on California’s struggle to either uphold the sanctity of traditional marriage or to clear the way for legal recognition of all couples. Same-sex marriage is currently granted by five states (Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Connecticut) and the District of Columbia. It is also recognized but not legally performed in the states of New York, Maryland and Rhode Island.

PHOTO CREDIT: GETTY IMAGES / JUSTIN SULLIVAN

Poll: Obama's approval rating declines in 49-states over first half of 2010

READ FULL STORY HERE

Whatever the latest round of news, positive or negative may be, President Obama’s national approval rating has held seemingly steady for many months now. However consistent his standing with the American public is at large, when viewed at a state by state level there are wildly divergent opinions on the performance of the Commander in Chief.

According to Gallup, and most other pollsters, the President’s approval rating has been locked in the 45-50% range since early last fall when interest the health care debate peaked and Obama’s popularity dipped. Currently Gallup pegs the President with a 49% approval and 44% disapproval, but his ratings differ greatly between certain states and regions.

The overall picture is that of a Presidency trending downward in recent months. Obama’s 49% approval rating for the first half of 2010 is a considerable drop off from the 57% he enjoyed through the first six months of 2009. Still the President enjoys high levels of support from certain pockets of the country. States that Obama won by the widest of margins in the 2008 election continue, not surprisingly, to be the states where the President has the largest number of supporters. Gallup surveyed nearly 91,000 residents in all fifty states including 4,671 in Pennsylvania as part of their mid-year “State of the States” series.

Obama won 92.5% of the popular vote in Washington D.C. and the nation's capital remains strongest in support for the President with 85% of its residence approving of his job performance. With nearly 72% of the popular vote take in 2008 Hawaii was Obama’s second most supportive state. Hawaii remains strong with Obama to this day with 68% of responders approving of his Presidency. In total there are sixteen states that continue to deliver the President with a better than 50% approval rating and another fifteen where that approval ratings exceeds his disapproval. That is however down considerably from the second half of 2009 when Gallup’s previous study indicated all but nine states at over a 50% approval for Obama and only Idaho and Wyoming with a higher disapproval than approval rating for the President.

The downward trend for the administration in recent months does not shift the overall picture however. Of the 28-states (including Washington D.C.) that went for Obama in November, 2008 almost all rank as the President’s 27 most supportive in mid-2010. In each instance the President pulls in a positive net approval rating and stands at least 47%. The one exception is in the battleground state of New Hampshire where Obama has cratered to a 41-52% approval to disapproval margin. The “Granite State” has long been viewed as something of a political outsider in the largely liberal New England so its negative views of the President’s job performance while eye opening are not exactly shocking revelations.

Obama’s approval rating is currently under-40% in seven states, most of whom voted heavily against the then Illinois Senator in 2008. Only Montana, a state that the President lost by less than 12,000 votes in 2008 but has just a 38% approval rating with now represents a significant shift. Pennsylvania in true swing-state fashion lands almost perfectly in the middle of Obama’s popularity rankings at 26th position and with an approval to disapproval rating (48-45%) very similar to his overall national standing. New Jersey meanwhile is the President’s twelfth most supportive state (52-41%) and Delaware scores him his third best ratings (62-29%) in the nation.

With the President’s popularity from one state to the next differing considerably so to not consistent is his falloff from Gallup’s last study concluded at the beginning of the year. The top five states where Obama’s approval rating has fallen by the largest percentile are Missouri (-14.5%), Utah (-13.8%), Vermont (-13.7%), New Hampshire (-13.6%) and Kentucky (-12.8). In the solidly red states of Utah and Kentucky his drop is fairly consistent with the overall disapproval registered within the Republican Party. Missouri however was a battleground state in 2008 that he lost narrowly to Senator John McCain. New Hampshire is a blue state that the President now see's dropping heavily into the negatives while the ultra-blue state of Vermont while experiencing significant deterioration in popularity remains solid for Obama.

With an eight-point dip in his national approval rating positives at a state level are difficult to find. In fact the President is more popular than he was six months ago in just one state. Delaware has actually shown tiny improvement for Obama since the end of 2009 delivering him a 62% approval rating which is about a single point improvement from six months ago. Other states where the President is experiencing a comparatively softer landing are Hawaii (-2.8%), Colorado (-3.3%), Mississippi (-4.8%), New Mexico (-4.9%) and Texas (-4.9%). In Pennsylvania (-9.4%) and New Jersey (-11%) meanwhile Obama’s dip in approval exceeds that of his overall decline at a national level.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Cliff Owen

Poll: Onorato moves closer in Pennsylvania Governor's Race, still trails by ten-points

READ FULL STORY HERE

Is the race for Governor in Pennsylvania beginning to narrow?

Just a month ago Republican State Attorney General Tom Corbett held a safe 49-33% lead. The latest figures from Rasmussen Reports show his Democratic opponent, Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato, closing to within ten-points. The new data indicates a lead of 49-39% for Corbett, his narrowest advantage to date.

Of course being ten-points up in a race with less than four-months remaining until the election still positions Corbett as the clear front runner. Eight-percent of Pennsylvania likely voters are still unsure of who they support with another 4% backing a different candidate for Governor.

Corbett leads among men, women and independents in the Keystone State and retains a solid 22-10% margin between those who view him very favorably and very unfavorably. Onorato is also seeing some improved numbers as of late with 21% of Pennsylvanians holding strongly positive opinions against 15% with largely negatives ones.

Past polling indicated an approval rating of sitting Democratic Governor Ed Rendell as mired in the low to mid-40 percentiles. It will be interesting to see if the soon to be outgoing Governor experiences a bounce in popularity following the signing of the state’s budget earlier this week however. President Obama meanwhile is similarly lagging at the moment to the tune of a 47% approval rating amongst voters in the Keystone State, similar to his overall national standing according to recent Rasmussen data.

Onorato easily outdistanced three other Democratic rivals in May to secure the party’s nomination for Governor. Corbett meanwhile defeated Republican Sam Rohrer by a crushing margin of 69-31%.

Poll: Toomey continues to hold modest lead over Sestak in Pennsylvania Senate race

READ FULL STORY HERE

The dynamics of Pennsylvania’s Senate race have changed little over the past month. Republican Pat Toomey continues to lead Democrat Joe Sestak by a modest margin.

A just released poll from Rasmussen Reports shows the Toomey advantage currently at 45-39% with 11% undecided and another 6% supporting a different candidate. Those are nearly identical figures from last month that showed Toomey with a 45-38% lead after Specter had enjoyed a brief post-primary bounce in May.

Whichever candidate wins in November they’ll be replacing long time Republican turned Democratic Senator Arlen Specter who was convincingly defeated by Sestak in his party’s primary in May. In spite of the highly publicized campaign Democrats appear to offer Sestak lukewarm support in the wake of his surprising victory. Just 70% of Pennsylvania Democrats are shown to support Sestak against 81% of Republicans who plan to vote for Toomey in the fall. The GOP’s nominee also holds a nine-point advantage amongst those likely voters unaffiliated with either major party.

As voters get to know each candidate better their opinions have soured some. Pat Toomey is currently view very favorably by 17% of Pennsylvanians with 13% holding a very unfavorable opinion. Joe Sestak meanwhile is evenly split at 16-16% amongst those with strong opinions. That represents a modest drop in support for both candidates since last month although it has had little to no effect on the overall picture of the race.

In other areas of interest Rasmussen Reports pegs President Obama’s approval rating in Pennsylvania at 47%. He has registered consistently just below the 50% threshold for several months now, a far cry from his 2008 success in the Keystone State when 55% of voters punched their ticket for Obama. The President’s stance on the immigration debate is not helping his numbers either. With the administration set to file a lawsuit against Arizona over its tough new immigration laws by a 55-31% margin a majority of Pennsylvania voters oppose the legal challenge.

Similarly most Pennsylvanians (54%) favor the repeal of the President’s sweeping health care reform bill passed last fall. 42% oppose any sort of repeal keeping these numbers roughly in line with what Rasmussen has tracked nationally, although somewhat at odds with other pollsters.

Poll: Phillies rule South Jersey but the Yankees are most popular team in the Garden State

READ FULL STORY HERE

When it comes to the world of sports the Garden is classic battleground territory. A recent poll from Quinnipiac of 1,650 New Jersey residents finds a state high on the Yankees and positively wild for the Super Bowl.

Without a team to call their own the millions of baseball fans in New Jersey typically split their allegiance between the two clubs in New York City and the Philadelphia Phillies. 55% of the state claims to be at least somewhat interested in the sport and 47% of that group list the Yankees as their favorite MLB team. That’s over twice as many as those who root hardest for the Mets (21%) and Phillies (20%). Nearly nine in ten (88%) New Jersey baseball fans rank at least one of the three teams from large markets bordering their state to the northeast and southwest as their favorite.

These most recent findings are similar to what Quinnipiac found a year ago when a 2003 Sports Illustrated survey of fans from around the country including New Jersey. That poll found the Yankees attracting 44% of the vote for most popular baseball team in the Garden. The Mets were at 23% and the Phillies at 15%. The Bronx Bombers were in the midst of another run to the World Series that season whereas the Mets were in the midst of a last place finish in the NL East, all the while the Phillies posted a solid 86-76 record.

Despite the overwhelming affection for the Yankees over all other competition passions for baseball in New Jersey are regionally divided. Asked who’d they like to see win the World Series this season the Yankees came out on top of the Phillies by a 55-28% margin. Not surprisingly the Bronx Bombers dominate northern Jersey by 71-12% over the Phillies. In South Jersey however it’s neighboring Philadelphia that gets more love by a margin of 63-25%. Central Jersey meanwhile swings heavily for the Yankees again to the tune of 58-22% over their World Series opponent from 2009.

Baseball is popular in the Garden but more residents (65%) claim to be somewhat or very interested in the National Football League. The Giants and Jets while claiming “New York” in their title will christen a brand new stadium in East Rutherford this upcoming 2010 season. 80% of pro-football fans in New Jersey like the idea of the Meadowlands hosting the Super Bowl in 2014. Nine in ten (90%) meanwhile consider having the NFL’s championship game at the home of the Giants and Jets to be a “good thing” for the state of New Jersey.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Seth Wenig

Poll: Republican candidates lead Democratic rivals in two key races in Pennsylvania

READ FULL STORY HERE

As a number of states prepare to vote in what could be crucial primaries today two news surveys from Rasmussen Reports show Republicans fairing quite well in Pennsylvania.

In the race for Senate Republican Pat Toomey is now shown as leading recently nominated Democrat Joe Sestak 45-38%. This is a turnaround from polling two-weeks ago that showed Sestak carrying a modest four-point lead bolstered by his primary defeat of longtime Senator Arlen Specter. The post-victory bounce has appeared to dissipate rather quickly for the sitting congressman however and Toomey, who led both would-be Democrats for most of the year, is back out in front.

The good news for Sestak comes in the 19% of undecided Democratic voters. Only 7% of Republicans can’t choose between Toomey, Sestak or a third-party candidate at this juncture. Overall 12% of Pennsylvanians are uncertain of any candidate perhaps affording Sestak the opportunity to both tie up some loose ends within his own party and court those crucial undecideds.

Health care remains a divisive issue in Pennsylvania as it does nationally. 56% of Keystone State voters support the repeal of health care reform legislation against 38% who oppose such a measure. Eight out of ten (80%) of those electing to keep the status quo not surprisingly favor Sestak and a virtually identical percentage (81%) of those pushing for its retraction side with Toomey. Overall Sestak splits the opinion of voters with strong feelings about him. 16% of Pennsylvania voters hold a very favorable view of the congressman against 16% who view him very unfavorably. Pat Toomey scores a bit better to the tune of a 21-13% very favorable to very unfavorable margin.

In the race for Governor Republican State Attorney General Tom Corbett leads Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato by sixteen-points. The 49-33% lead for Corbett also includes 13% of Pennsylvania voters who aren’t sure of a candidate preference and 5% who prefer someone else besides the two front runners. The dynamics of this race remain relatively unchanged from last month when Rasmussen polling showed Corbett with a thirteen-point lead and drawing 49% support overall.

Corbett’s reputation as a popular politician in the Keystone State is also confirmed by the number of those holding strong opinions of him. 27% of voters view him very favorably against just 11% who see him very unfavorably. Onorato meanwhile is divided by a far more modest margin of 14-10%.

Both men look to succeed sitting two-term Governor and former Philadelphia Mayor Ed Rendell who has been struggling with subpar approval ratings for over a year. Currently Rendell is approved of by 44% of Pennsylvanians. President Obama meanwhile scores a 48% approval rating in the state, a percentage more or less in line with his current standing nationally.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Keith Srakocic

Analysis: Lackluster approval ratings after first 500-days can be overcome, history shows

READ FULL STORY HERE

Depending on which poll you reference President Obama’s approval ratings have seemingly been locked into place for several months now.

Typically in the 45-50% range the President has suffered through a prolonged stretch of mediocre popularity ever since the health care issue became a central focus last summer. Many are quick to suggest that the path to reelection for Obama is likely to be steep and treacherous. According at least to one reputable pollster however the effect of a President’s popularity less than a year and a half into their first term serves as little to no barometer in assessing their chances for reelection.

According to Gallup President Obama’s approval rating for the week ending May 30th reached a new low of 46%. It has since rebounded some, currently situated at 50% as of yesterday, June 2nd. While these figures are fairly moribund by most standards when comparing them to the popularity of Commander in Chief’s at the same point in their respective Presidencies a mixed bag of evidence appears.

Gallup compared the historical approval ratings of President Obama and his eleven most recent processors who resided in the White House dating back to Harry Truman. Seven of the eleven were either reelected or won their own term while serving as President due to their assumed role to the position following a death in office. Two other Presidents (Jimmy Cater, George H.W. Bush) were defeated for reelection. Gerald Ford was also defeated running for his own term as sitting President after serving out the final two and half years of Richard Nixon’s second-term ended abruptly by scandal and resignation. The assassination of John F. Kennedy meanwhile cut short his Presidency after only 34-months.

President Obama has reached his 500th day as the nation’s 44th President. Here is a list of where the other aforementioned Commander’s in Chief stood at the same point in their Presidencies;

44) Barack Obama – 46%
43) George W. Bush – 70%
42) Bill Clinton – 46%
41) George H.W. Bush – 67%
40) Ronald Reagan – 45%
39) Jimmy Carter – 44%
38) Gerald Ford – 46%
37) Richard Nixon – 55%
36) Lyndon Johnson – 67%
35) John F. Kennedy – 71%
34) Dwight Eisenhower – 62%
33) Harry Truman – 33%

The overall 500-day average between the eleven most recent Presidents of 59% means that Barack Obama lingers well behind the statistical norm. A deeper look however reveals that such a figure is bereft of much substance at least in terms of what it means for the overall life of a Presidency.

Five other Presidents; Harry Truman, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton also had approval ratings at 46% or worse 500-days into their terms. While Carter and Ford failed to win in the next election Bill Clinton won easily in 1996 and Reagan did so in a landslide in 1984. Harry Truman on the other hand had carried lifeless approval ratings for much of his first term but never the less staged one of the most improbable political upsets in American history in 1948.

On the other hand strong approval ratings early into a Presidency serve as no guarantee for future success. George H.W. Bush lost convincingly to Bill Clinton in 1992 despite carrying impressive approval ratings of 67% into the middle of 1990. His son George W. meanwhile only narrowly won reelection in 2004 despite a 9/11 bolstered approval rating of 70% in June of 2002. Bush would end up leaving office in January of 2009 with some of the worst approval ratings for a President in history.

Lyndon Johnson was already in the midst of his first full term as President having won in a landslide in 1964. Yet his impressive popularity 500-days into office did not translate well down the road. Johnson’s approval would fall into the low-40 percentiles by late-1967 as the controversial Vietnam War engulfed his Presidency and overshadowed his domestic achievements. Johnson won with over 61% of the popular vote in 1964 but found the political landscape too treacherous to navigate and chose not to run for reelection four years later.

Then again not all examples of high popularity early into a Presidency are a fluke. Dwight Eisenhower was consistently well liked over his eight years in office and won reelection in a landslide in 1956. Richard Nixon may have left the White House in disgrace but his approval rating of 55% at day number 500 paved the way for an historic landslide victory over his Democratic rival in 1972. We’ll never know what political fate was held in store for John F. Kennedy’s first term. His approval ratings of 71% as of June, 1962 and 58% upon his death in November, 1963 however made a second-term appear imminent had it not been felled by an assassins bullet.

As it stands as of this morning President Obama has an overall first-term approval rating of nearly 55%. While his level of popularity in recent months has clearly diminished Obama supporters need to look back no further than the previous Democratic President for inspiration. Bill Clinton’s 46% approval rating according to Gallup matches that of Obama’s 500-days into their Presidencies. Furthermore Clinton won reelection by eight and a half percentage-points despite posting an overall first-term approval of just 49.6%.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / CHARLES DHARAPAK

Poll: Blackhawks to defeat Flyers in Cup Finals, fans closely divided in support for either team

READ FULL STORY HERE

The Flyers magical run to the Stanley Cup Finals has already converted many skeptics throughout the Delaware Valley. Not nearly as many nationwide believe they will defeat the Blackhawks however.

ESPN.com unscientifically polled sports fans on a variety of questions pertaining to the Philly-Chicago Cup Finals match up. Of the over 104,000 fans across “sports nation” who have chimed in as of this morning 68% believe the Blackhawks will win their first championship since 1961. The Flyers 35-year title drought meanwhile will be ended in the opinion of 32% of ESPN voters.

Looking at state by state results the Flyers are the pick in just three states all making up the greater Philadelphia tri-state area. Delawareans are the most confident with 73% taking Philly in the Finals. Seven of ten Pennsylvanians (70%) are too counting on a Flyers victory. In the Garden State meanwhile 53% think the Orange and Black will hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup. On the flip side many states are leaning heavily against the Flyers chances in this upcoming series. Philadelphia gets under 20% of the vote in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota and Wisconsin. Not surprisingly it was the Blackhawks home state of Illinois that ranked as the most fiercely confident of any to the tune of 93% believing in their home team’s chances of victory.

A far smaller sample size of around 13,000 responded to the question of which team did they want to win the Cup. The Flyers-Blackhawks match up in this instance was far more evenly divided. Currently Chicago had the favor of a slight majority of sports fans outdistancing Philadelphia by a slim 52-48% margin. While cultivating one of the NHL’s larger national fan bases through the years the Flyers are also one of the most vilified teams in hockey. This dates back to their “Broad Street Bullies” teams of the 1970s that resulted in two Stanley Cup championships and a boat load of critics. A recent HBO documentary also titled “Broad Street Bullies” examined in greater depth the perception of team who was both a hero and villain.

The Flyers are the more popular team in several states including Hawaii, Arkansas, Alabama, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Washington D.C. and in West Virginia where there is a 50-50 tie between the two combatants. In New Jersey meanwhile some 79% are pulling for a Flyers victory. That figure balloons to 88% when talking about Pennsylvanians and a whopping 95% of those residing in the First State of Delaware. Conversely 95% of those in Illinois are rooting for their Blackhawks and Chicago is also heavily supported in North Dakota (89%) and neighboring Indiana (88%). In total the Hawks are the people’s choice in 38-states.


Better coach? The Flyers Peter Laviolette who already has one Cup victory on his resume and was largely responsible for engineering Philadelphia’s amazing comeback in their Conference Semi-Finals series against Boston gets the slight nod. Chicago coach Joel Quenneville who led his Blackhawks to the second best regular season point total (112) in the league is beaten out by a modest 54-46% margin. Those residing outside the borders of the United States are evenly split 50-50 on the subject. Overall Laviolette is the pick in 28-states and Washington D.C.

Better goalie? It’s a neck and neck race between Flyers goaltender Michael Leighton and Blackhawks netminder Antii Niemi. Both have excelled in these playoffs and neither was considered amongst the elite at their position prior to an impressive postseason run. Leighton in particular didn’t even compete in the playoffs until the second round against the Bruins due to an injury to goalie Brian Boucher who himself was a backup to Ray Emery, injured during the regular season. Leighton is the choice in 25-states plus Washington D.C. while Niemi gets more respect in 22-states. Voters in Maine, New Mexico and Utah are currently locked in a 50-50 tie.

Lastly another evenly divided result was voted upon by over 50,000 sports fans on ESPN.com. Chicago and Philadelphia are widely considered to be two of the very best sports cities in America and this question asks the general public who is more of a “hockey town”. The Hawks have tradition as a member of the “Original Six” and claim for the highest NHL attendance over the past two seasons. Still the Flyers have enjoyed consistently higher attendance, revenue and local TV ratings over at least the last two decades. In recent years Philadelphia was also ranked in publications such as Sports Illustrated and the Sporting News as either the best, or amongst the top-three American hockey markets.

Including D.C. Philadelphia was recognized as the better hockey town in 28-states with three others; Alaska, Idaho and Washington, split 50-50. Of course it’s not surprising to see 85% of those living in Illinois believing their home city of Chicago being the better of the two whereas three-quarters (75%) of Pennsylvanians claiming Philadelphia is the more passionate hockey town – a state that also has a rival team residing in Pittsburgh.

The Stanley Cup Finals begins on Saturday at 8pm on NBC with a majority of national analysts picking the Blackhawks to win the series. Noted ESPN analyst and former NHL head coach Barry Melrose predicted these two teams would meet each other in the Finals during the preseason and he now picks Chicago to defeat the Flyers in six.

Poll: Sestak leads Toomey 46-42% in first major survey since Tuesday primaries

READ FULL STORY HERE

Fresh off his surprise victory over longtime Senator Arlen Specter in Tuesday’s Democratic primary Joe Sestak appears to be carrying some serious momentum into the general election campaign.

Rasmussen Reports has released the first poll of post-primary collected date and its good news for the 7th District Congressman turned Senate nominee. Sestak leads opponent Pat Toomey, the easy victor on the Republican side, by a margin of 46-42%. This is the first time Sestak has led Toomey since declaring his candidacy for the position last August. Twelve-percent of Pennsylvania voters remain uncertain of either major party candidate or prefer someone else completely.

While Sestak has enjoyed plenty of momentum over the past few weeks it will be interesting to see if the results of this poll represent a short-lived bounce or are part of a broader trend. Two weeks ago the Democrat ran neck and neck with Toomey and his overall numbers from May are a marked improvement from Rasmussen polling from February through April. During that span Sestak’s average deficit was by a 45-37% margin. His current four-point advantage comes days after an impressive showing in Pennsylvania’s May 18th Democratic primary. The second term congressman effectively ended the political career of state institution Arlen Specter by a 54-46% margin.

Pat Toomey was the runaway winner on the Republican side with 82% of the vote capturing the nomination without being seriously contested. Toomey continues to run ahead of Sestak with unaffiliated voters by a margin of 41-32%. Sestak meanwhile has received a substantial boost from his own party as the latest polling indicates he is now supported by 80% of Pennsylvania Democrats, up sixteen-points from before Tuesday’s primary. 20% of voters in the Keystone State now view Sestak “very” favorably against 13% who hold a very unfavorable opinion and 14% who are undecided. Toomey has a solid 21-10% split between those viewing him very favorably and unfavorably while 19% of voters don’t offer an opinion either way.

Many within the Democratic ranks are banking on a Sestak win in the fall to help stem the tide of a possible Republican insurgency. Political analyst Larry J. Sabato of the University of Virginia predicts substantial Democratic losses in the November election but not damaged badly enough to lose control of either the House or Senate. Currently his projections show the Republicans with a net gain of seven-seats in the Senate and 27-seats in the House of Representatives. He also rates the Senate race in Pennsylvania as a toss-up. Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com meanwhile believes Toomey and the Republicans have a 71% chance of victory in the Keystone State, but that assessment came before these recent poll findings from Rasmussen.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Michael Perez

Poll: Specter and Sestak race 'too close to call' as we head to Election Day

READ FULL STORY HERE

It’s down to the wire in the Keystone State and polls show a virtual dead heat.

Tomorrow, May 18th, Democrats across Pennsylvania will cast their vote for which candidate will represent their party against Republican Pat Toomey in November. Long time Senator and recently minted Democrat Arlen Specter was seen as the front runner in the race against second term Congressman Joe Sestak. In recent weeks however as a flurry of campaign ads and issues raised from both sides have filled the airwaves the battle for Specter’s long held Senate seat has heated up.

Suggesting the race is still at a deadlock might actually be encouraging words to Arlen Specter supporters. After all some reputable new polling in recent days shows the Sestak insurgency has moved in front.


Last week a survey from Rasmussen Reports showed, that for the first time, Sestak had moved ahead of Specter by a margin of 47-42% in their primary showdown. A new survey conducted by Franklin & Marshall in affiliation with the Philadelphia Daily News meanwhile places Sestak as the narrow front runner. With a lead of 38-36% in that poll over a quarter of voters have yet to voice their preference for either candidate. Released this morning a new poll from Quinnipiac meanwhile shows a virtually even race. The poll has Sestak inching in front by a margin of 42-41%. Still a relatively high number of Democratic voters (16%) remain undecided of either candidate whereas a quarter of those supporting either suggest they could change their decision prior to heading into the voting booth on Tuesday.

"The Sestak-Specter race is a dead heat and could go either way. Sen. Arlen
Specter has the party organization behind him, which should help with turnout.
But Congressman Joe Sestak could benefit from the relatively large group of
undecided voters. Generally, incumbents don't do all that well with undecideds,
who are more likely to vote for the challenger or not vote." -- Peter A. Brown,
assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute

With a large number of Pennsylvanians from all parties believing Arlen Specter has worn out his welcome as a representative in the U.S. Senate and the general anti-incumbent tone of this election cycle it’s easy to see where the veteran senator’s difficulties lie. But Democrats in the Keystone State also seem to be keeping watchful out for which candidate matches up better with Pat Toomey, the presumptive Republican nominee, in the fall.

Released last Monday a Rasmussen poll finds Joe Sestak as considerably more likely to keep the senate seat from falling into Republican hands. In their still hypothetical match up Sestak trails Toomey by just two-points, 42-40%. Arlen Specter meanwhile is currently outdistanced by the Republican candidate to the tune of a twelve-point, 50-38% margin. The Franklin & Marshall survey found a more level playing field with Toomey ahead of Sestak 29-28% and leading Specter by a statistically insignificant 35-33% margin.

That said this election appears to be referendum on the current political environment nationally and on Senator Specter’s declining popularity at home. Just 32% of Pennsylvanians rated Specter’s job performance as “good” or “excellent” against 33% who labeled it only “fair” and an additional 29% who rate it “poor”. With such large blocks of voters undecided only a day out from going to the polls the Specter campaign still appears to have life. It is however hard to ignore the momentum that has been pointing in the direction of his challenger for several weeks now. Don’t count Arlen out but expect a Sestak victory and tight race between he and Toomey that will stretch across the next five and half months.

Poll: Sestak now leads Specter 47-42% in Pennsylvania Senate race

READ FULL STORY HERE

With just over a week remaining before droves of Pennsylvanians will vote in their highly publicized Democratic primary a just released survey from Rasmussen Reports indicates some major new developments.

According to the poll 7th District Congressman Joe Sestak has now caught and passed longtime Senator Arlen Specter in their race for the Democratic nomination. As of this morning “likely” voters as tracked by Rasmussen indicate a lead for the second-term congressman at 47-42%. With the election set to take place on Tuesday, May 18th, 8% of Pennsylvanian Democrats remain undecided and another 3% support a different candidate from their party.

Other national polls have indicated the race for Specter’s Senate seat has tightened in recent weeks but this is the first major poll to show an outright lead for Sestak. In March Specter’s lead was a seemingly comfortable 48-37%. In April however an aggressive ad campaign by Sestak-camp began to whittle away the lead and by mid-month the Senator’s advantage was down to a virtual 44-42% tossup. A month later Sestak’s sudden advantage has perhaps been bolstered by what many viewers considered a strong televised debate performance as well as the anti-incumbent sentiment permeating through the political landscape of 2010.

It will be interesting to see if other pollsters reflect these new findings as the Rasmussen survey results are based off of a relatively small sample of just 408-likely Democratic voters. A much larger poll of 930-likely voters conducted by Quinnipiac University just last week showed Specter retaining an shrinking but respectable 47-39% lead over his Democratic rival.

With the airwaves of the Philadelphia region and beyond now filled by attack ads coming from both sides the public sentiment seems to be favoring Sestak’s approach. Whereas 35% of voters consider Arlen Specter’s campaign to be taking on a negative tone just 11% accuse of Sestak of the same. 39% meanwhile see Sestak as running a mostly positive advertising and speaking campaign with just 22% of the opinion that Senator Specter is engaging in that as well.

The small disparity between each candidate’s favorable and unfavorable ratings eludes to the likelihood that Pennsylvania Democrats are basing their support on campaign tone or wedge issues. Arlen Specter is viewed favorably by 67% of Democratic voters in the Keystone State with 31% viewing him unfavorably. Joe Sestak meanwhile has a 63-22% favorable to unfavorable split with 14% of Democrats still not knowing enough about the congressman to cast any sort of opinion.

Whichever candidate wins the testy May 18th primary they’ll likely have their hands full against Republican challenger Pat Toomey. Rasmussen polling of less than a month ago showed Toomey with a 50-40% advantage over Senator Specter and a 47-36% lead over Congressman Sestak. If the volatile race for Senate on the Democratic side of serves as any sort of general election preview however a Toomey match up against either nominee could be a vicious and narrow race to the finish line.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / RICK SCHULTZ

Poll: Phillies now more popular than Eagles? Philly fans reveal their hometown preferences

READ FULL STORY HERE

Are the Phillies really more popular than the Eagles? Has their success in recent years turned Philadelphia from a football to baseball town? What is the greatest Philly sports tradition or venue and does our current pro-Phillies bias really hold up against the hard data?

An expansive survey released today by the Philadelphia Daily News looks to answer those questions and many more. Today’s release was the first of a four part series titled the “Philadelphia Fan Project”. Collecting data of 2,300 subscribers on the philly.com website and with assistance from the Sport and Industry Research Center at Temple University the Daily News has presented an informed and thoroughly interesting piece. Below are some of the highlights and critique of a fan study that is sure to settle certain arguments while creating hot topics of discussion around the water coolers and drinking establishments of greater-Philadelphia.

Q: What is your favorite Philadelphia pro sports team?

1) Phillies – 54%
2) Eagles – 30%
3) Flyers – 12%
4) Sixers – 4%

As anyone who is involved in political polling for a living will surely tell you surveys such as these are relevant only within the specific time period they are taken. Surely this set of data collected by the Daily News in mid-March skews favorably towards the Phillies. Coming off of their second consecutive World Series appearance there was significant buzz for the local baseball franchise as they were gearing up for the 2010 season at Spring Training in Clearwater. Counter that with growing criticism of the Eagles who exited the NFL postseason with an embarrassing playoff defeat in January.

March also is not football season and good or bad it would be interesting to see what the results of this poll would have been if the data had been collected between the months of August (NFL preseason) and January (NFL postseason). Still the Phillies considerable advantage over the Eagles is notable and, while no prior studies can be used to compare, it has to mark a considerable turnaround in the appeal for both teams from just a few years ago.

Unsurprisingly the Flyers and Sixers trailed well behind. Not that Philly fans needed a survey to tell them that the Phillies and Eagles were the top dogs in town but that both the hockey and basketball seasons were in full swing by March, unlike football or baseball, ought to come with a growing sense of alarm for the occupiers of the Wachovia Center. The Flyers recent playoff surge belies a relatively disappointing regular season that nearly cost them a postseason appearance. The Sixers meanwhile are trending aimlessly backwards. The faceless franchise is in the bottom-third of NBA attendance, local TV-ratings while finishing high on its list of loses during the 2009-10 season. Amazing to think how different the landscape was for the local hoops team just six or seven years ago.

Q: Which team will win the next championship?

1) Phillies – 89%
2) Eagles – 5%
3) Flyers – 5%
4) Sixers – 0%

Energized by the recent success of their baseball team Philadelphia sports fans not only rate the Phillies as their current favorite but also by a landslide believe they have the best shot of any of the four teams to bring another championship parade to the City of Brotherly Love. In 2008 the Fightin’ Phils broke the city’s quarter-century title drought and nearly nine in ten responders to this poll believe they’ll also win the next title. The Phillies success, narrowly missing a World Series title repeat last fall, has seemingly embolden local sports fans with a sense of confidence. For whoever does wind up winning the next championship the average responder believes it will happen within the next two years.

The Eagles are coming off of an 11-5 season in 2009 and reached the Conference Title Game as recently as January of that year. Yet only one in twenty give the Birds, behind new starting quarterback Kevin Kolb, the best shot of winning a championship out of the four major pro teams occupying the sporting landscape in Philadelphia. Equaling their total are the Flyers who are a consistent playoff team but have failed to hoist the Stanley Cup since 1975. Again the Sixers trail the pack in fourth place. Virtually no one assumes an NBA Championship is in the cards anytime soon, much less before another World Series parade, Lombardi or Stanley Cup trophy comes to town.

Q: Philadelphia is a __________ town?

1) Football – 70%
2) Baseball – 27%
3) Hockey – 2%
4) Basketball – 1%

As a team the Phillies may be number one in the hearts of Philadelphians but the sport of baseball remains a distant second to their passion for football. Philly has recaptured some of its long lost recognition as a top of the line baseball city in recent years. In 2009 alone the Phillies had the highest attendance percentage in all of baseball and were third behind the Red Sox and Cardinals in local-TV ratings. Yet football is king in Philadelphia just as it is in most of the country.

Harris polls surveying fans nationwide have shown the NFL as a two to one favorite over the MLB for favorite sports league. Those numbers are even more lopsided in favor of football when the college ranks are included. In Philly football is the choice of seven in ten responders when asked what they consider to be the “biggest” sport in town. The Eagles success in spite of not having won a championship in five decades reflects this passion for pigskins. The Birds have the highest attendance percentage in the NFL since 1990, a season ticket waiting list that stretches over decades and local television fan base that is routinely among the top-tier of the league.

Both Sports Illustrated and the Sporting News have ranked Philadelphia as either the best or one of the top-three hockey cities in America in recent years. None the less the locals defer heavily to football and baseball as the two prominent sports in the City of Brotherly Love. Just 2% of the overall crowd sees Philadelphia as a hockey town. Only 1% consider it to be a basketball-first city despite many great 76ers moments, players and teams and the fabulous local college basketball tradition of the Big-5. The disparity between football and baseball remains large but it’s probably as close as it has been in recent memory. Fueled by the Phillies success baseball has convinced 27% of local sports fans that it is the top sport in Philadelphia.

Q: What is your favorite Philadelphia sports venue?

1) Citizens Bank Park – 74%
2) Lincoln Financial Field – 8%
3) Wachovia Center – 8%
4) Palestra – 8%

Postseason baseball in Philadelphia has become a familiar occurrence in recent years and the fans have responded by routinely packing the seats at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies soaring popularity as reflected in this study has made the “Bank” the place to be in recent years. Yet the success of the team that plays there does not completely explain the massive disparity between it and the other venues as Philadelphia’s favorite place to watch a sporting event.

Nearly three-quarters of responders chose the Phillies home park as their favorite place to watch a game. The accessibility of baseball as a cheaper and more family oriented option always gives baseball an edge in this department. Even during lousy attendance seasons for the Phillies at the often reviled Veterans Stadiums 1.5 to 2-million fans routinely passed through the turn styles each season. Even those totals dwarfed figures for the Eagles, Flyers and Sixers who have fewer games, sell pricier tickets and in the case of hockey and basketball play in a far smaller venue.

Dismissing Citizens Bank Park as merely the product of a championship caliber team’s success or its accessibility as the home of a fan friendlier sport would be missing the point however. In truth the “Bank” is widely considered one of the best stadiums in all of Major League Baseball. Opened in 2004 the beautiful baseball-only park instantly gave droves of fans a better excuse to attend a baseball game than ever before. Whereas the foreboding Vet was hardly a choice venue even in years when the Phillies played well, Citizens Bank with its beautiful design, fan-friendly arrangements and caveats in tow encourages Philadelphia fans to enjoy a night at the park even if the baseball team is performing below par.

Another state of the art facility is Lincoln Financial Field, home of the Eagles since 2003. Rarely do football stadiums exude the same type of charm or distinction as their baseball-only counterparts however which immediately places the “Linc” behind the eight ball. Furthermore the fan experience while riveting when the local football team is playing well touches far fewer fans. Most of the attendees during each game of each season are among the few dozen thousand season ticket holders and with only eight regular season games scheduled there are ten-times less the opportunities to catch the Eagles than the Phillies. If that weren’t enough the ticket prices surely are. Lower-level tickets at the “Linc” average $95. That’s a far pricier option for a family of four than grabbing decent seats at a Phillies game.

Q: What is the best Philadelphia sports tradition? (Responders allowed to choose up to three)

1) Kate Smith singing “God Bless America” – 43%
2) E-A-G-L-E-S chant – 42%
3) The Big-5 – 39%
4) Army-Navy Game – 29%
5) Penn Relays – 21%
6) Dave Zinkoff intros – 17%
7) Booing – 16%
8) Fireworks night at the Phillies – 16%
9) Tailgating – 14%
10) “Let’s Go Flyers” chant – 12%

Perhaps nothing is more identifiable with the Philly sports scene than a fan “booing” or an E-A-G-L-E-S chant breaking out yet it’s a patriotic anthem that stirred emotions at Flyers games which comes out on top.

Allowing responders to choose up to three famous Philly traditions, fifteen received votes, but none more than 43% who choose Kate Smith’s famous rendition of “God Bless America” at Flyers games. The hockey team went an amazing 81-21-4 when Smith belted out the patriotic standard rather than a Star Spangled rendition at the Spectrum. Smith has been immortalized by a statue outside the famed Philly arena and will also have her likeness placed on a stamp on May 19th – the 36th anniversary of the Flyers first Cup clinching victory in 1974.

The Eagles were a close second on this list with 42% choosing the never mistaken “E-A-G-L-E-S” chant heard for decades. Also prominently positioned was the great Philly college basketball tradition of the Big-5 particularly its history of games at the iconic Palestra. The Army-Navy Game (29%) is a yearly Philadelphia tradition and also cracking the 20% barrier are the nationally recognized Penn Relays. Former 76ers P.A. announcer Dave Zinkoff is remembered fondly by at least 17% of responders most notably for his famous starting lineup introductions including one “Julius Errrrrrvvvvvving”.

If this were a national survey the Philly fan “boo” would have to be the front runner for the top-spot. Local fans disagree however with only 16% identifying the classic phrase as either self defining or worthy of a great local sports tradition. Tailgating, primarily before Eagles games, is highly regarded by 14% of the audience and “Let’s Go Flyers” chants (12%) while popular are around three and a half times less immortalized in the hearts of Philly fans as roars of “E-A-G-L-E-S, Eagles”. Missing the top-ten but also receiving votes were streamers and rollouts at the Palestra (10%), Businessperson Specials at Phillies games (9%), boxing fights at the Blue Horizon (4%), the recently participated Broad Street Run (3%), and the Pennsylvania Derby in horse racing (1%).

A: Most popular teams and topics online (Philly.com webpage views for March, 2010)

1) Eagles – 36.8%
2) Phillies – 29.0%
3) Flyers – 17.4%
4) High School Sports – 8.9%
5) Sixers – 7.9%

The Phillies may be the most popular team in town according to polls but the real action shows the Eagles are still getting more attention. The figures above were taken from the Inquirer and Daily News accompanying website www.philly.com. The percentages represent the breakdown of “sub-front” page views by team or topic. There were more than 2.5-million of these page views during the month of March and despite it coming in the midst of the NFL offseason the Eagles remained the topic generating the most attention online.

How that translates into overall popularity is the subject of debate. News for an organization can be good, bad or just plain interesting. Although their season was over by two months during this online measurement cycle the Donovan McNabb trade situation had remained a hot topic on the minds of local sports fans well before he was officially dealt to Washington. Still the Eagles impressive showing beating the Phillies by nearly eight-percentage points despite being up against Spring Training fever is revealing. It also perhaps serves as a counterpoint to the perception that the Phillies are now the city’s most popular team based off of ever changing fan polling.

The Flyers stretch run began in earnest during the month of March meanwhile. It was as previously eluded to a rather ordinary and uneventful regular season for the Flyers yet a significant percentage of Philly sports fans still kept up with the latest news on their team. Sadly for the Sixers when it comes to this measurement of fan enthusiasm they couldn’t even crack the top-four. That position goes to the philly.com section titled “Rally” that focuses on local high school sports. With their lifeless 2009-10 season winding down the Sixers ultimately scored 7.9% of the total page views in March. That’s more than four and a half times less the attention the Eagles received despite it being arguably the least eventful of NFL months.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Matt Slocumb

Poll: Men and women are equally ‘Pro-Choice’, education is bigger factor than gender

READ FULL STORY HERE

Abortion may be considered a top “women’s” issue but when it comes to support or opposition for the legality of the procedure education, not gender, is more the deciding factor.

Since 1975, two years after the landmark Supreme Court ruling in the Roe v. Wade case, Gallup has been tracking nationwide opinions on the issue. What they have found is education as more a consistent barometer than gender in predicting views of Americans. Over a period of 35-years the level of support and opposition toward the abortion topic has fluctuated modestly. Majorites of the public have consistently placed themselves in the grouping of “legal only under certain circumstances” as to which best describes their opinion. Other options through the years have included “legal under any circumstances” and “illegal in all circumstances.”

Support for the legality of abortion under any circumstance has always been highest among college graduates. Those percentages ranged from the mid to upper-30 percentiles in the late-70s to late-80s and again from the mid-90s through the mid-2000s. It peaked in the early 90s when 44% of college graduates from either gender claimed to support a women’s right to choose in all instances. Recently that number has fallen however, as between 2005-09 just 31% of the most highly educated claimed to be on board with abortion being legal in any circumstance.

Trailing college graduates are those individuals with some college experience. There are nearly identical percentages from the mid-70s through the mid-2000s with the exception of that same 1990-94 period when 37% believed in the right for an abortion under any circumstance. More consistent over this time period were those with the lowest level of education. Individuals with a high school degree or less have supported the right to choose around 20% of the time through the past three and a half decades. Never did that figure exceed 25% or fall below 17%.

Looking at side by side comparisons between men and women through the years reveals just how similar abortion views are between genders. Since the beginning of the debate in 1975 around 52% of women and 57% of men have agreed that abortion ought to be legal only under certain circumstances. Another 27% of women and 24% of men on average believe the practice should be legal and available under any circumstances. Women (18.7%), perhaps surprisingly, actually believe abortion ought to be illegal at a higher rate than men (16.2%). The bottom line however is the two genders mirror each other’s opinions on the issue through the decades and at present.

The most supportive subgroup toward abortion are female college graduates. Currently 35% of that group supports a women’s right to choose in all instances, compared with 28% who’ve had some college experience and just 18% holding a high school degree or less. Men are a bit more narrowly divided yet college grads still trump those with less education on the topic of support for the legality of the issue. This includes 28% of college graduates, 25% with some college and 18% having no more than a high school education.

Opposition to abortion appears to have strengthened amongst most subgroups in recent years. Whether it be those with higher or lower levels of education or women versus men the percentages of those holding pro-choice views appears to be noticeably smaller than they were at their peak in the early-90s. Still the totals remain fairly consistent with averages from the past three

Poll: 56% of Pennsylvanians hold negative view of Ben Roethlisberger, most agree with suspension

READ FULL STORY HERE

It’s not a good month to be a big time NFL quarterback in the state of Pennsylvania.

Donovan McNabb, a polarizing athletic figure in Philadelphia, was dealt to division rival Washington after eleven-seasons at the helm of the Eagles. Even bigger news of late comes out of Pittsburgh however where league commissioner Roger Goodell has chosen to suspend Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger. “Big Ben” will not be eligible to return for at least four weeks and could possibly be out up to six games from the start of the 2010 regular season. The 28-year old Roethlisberger has been hailed for his on the field successes just as a string of off the field exploits has garnered him decidedly negative press.

The most recent episode comes from the allegation a young college student who claims the quarterback sexually assaulted her in a Georgia bar last month. Although Roethlisberger has not ultimately been convicted of any wrongdoing commissioner Goodell scolded one of the game’s most prolific passers for his conduct and levied the suspension. In lieu of these events two new surveys depict harsh views being cast on Roethlisberger by the public and a majority of football fans agreeing with his punishment.

Just 24% of Pennsylvanians view Roethlisberger favorably against 56% who hold a mostly negative view. The poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports shows an even wider disparity in the number of those with strong feelings towards the Steelers quarterback. Whereas 22% have a “very” unfavorable impression of Roethlisberger only one in twenty (5%) now view “very” favorably.

In terms of favorables there isn’t a wide gender gap. 27% of men continue to view “Big Ben” favorably as do 23% of women and a majority of both sexes express unfavorable opinions. Perhaps surprisingly the Rasmussen poll did find a large gap between men and women on the topic of his suspension however. In polling conducted before his suspension 55% of men thought Roethlisberger should be sidelined for an undetermined amount of time but only 31% of women agreed. Overall 47% of Pennsylvanians felt the quarterback’s conduct warranted a suspension against 28% who disagreed with that sentiment and another quarter (25%) of those who remained uncertain.

Nearly 250,000 sports fans also made their opinion heard on ESPN.com. While the polling itself is unscientific the harsh tones toward Roethlisberger are clear depicted. 51% of the country agreed with Roger Goodell’s decision to suspend the Steelers QB for 4-6 weeks. With another 28% also believing the penalty to be too soft nearly eight in ten American sports fans (79%) are of the opinion that “Big Ben” is deserving of some sort of suspension. Only 21% who chimed in on ESPN.com are of the opinion that Roethlisberger’s suspension is too long or the penalty too harsh.

Not surprisingly Pennsylvanians were most critical of the Roethlisberger suspension although only one in four (25%) think his punishment was too harsh. 34% of Washington residents do not think commissioner Goodell went far enough in his suspension. Anti-Roethlisberger sentiment in the state of Washington could stem in part from the Seattle Seahawks controversial loss to the Steelers in Super Bowl XL over four years ago. Utah meanwhile was the most supportive of the decision made by Goodell with 56% of their resident sports fans agreeing with the suspension.

The Steelers organization has been rumored to be shopping their star QB around the NFL. Santonio Holmes, another Steeler' with a checkered past, was recently traded for a 5th round pick in this season's draft. Holmes was named Super Bowl MVP in 2009 in part for his spectacular game winning touchdown reception late in the fourth quarter, compliments of the arm of one Ben Roethlisberger. Should "Big Ben" be traded away in the coming weeks or months both Pennsylvania NFL teams would have parted ways with potential Hall of Fame quarterbacks in the same offseason.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Gene J. Puskar

Poll: Corbett retains lead in race for PA Governor, Gov. Christie gets positive early marks in NJ

READ FULL STORY HERE

Tom Corbett is still the front runner in the race to become Pennsylvania’s next Governor. In neighboring New Jersey meanwhile fellow Republican Chris Christie gets a passing grade for his job performance through three months.

Today’s new poll release compliments of Rasmussen Reports shows State Attorney General Corbett holding a large lead over three other Democratic hopefuls. While Corbett’s numbers haven’t improved since last month’s polling the new figures indicate a lead of twenty-percentage points over Congressman Joe Hoeffel and a 21% advantage over State Auditor Jack Wagner. That said Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato appears to be gaining ground. Although he still trails Corbett 45-36% that figure is a marked improvement from March polling that saw him trailing 46-29% and a considerable bump from February when Rasmussen showed Onorato behind by a two-to-one margin, 52-26%.

Tom Corbett is viewed “very” favorably by 19% of Pennsylvanians with another 14% holding a “very” unfavorable opinion. Dan Onorato receives split support, 16-15%, from those with strong feelings. Joe Hoeffel and Jack Wagner meanwhile and mired in the negatives. Hoeffel’s very favorable to very unfavorable margin is 7-11% with Jack Wagner fairing even worse to the tune of a 5-11% split.

Moving the political spotlight from the Keystone State to the Garden State Rasmussen finds Governor Chris Christie off to a decent start with New Jersey voters. His approval to disapproval margin is a respectable 53-45%, a total that includes 32% who strongly approve and 30% who strongly disapprove of the job the Governor has done just three months in. There is a considerable party divide with 80% of Republicans and 64% of independents giving Christie positive marks but 70% of Democrats issuing an early failing grade.

Other New Jersey polling shows that well more than half of voters (57%) believe incumbents at all levels in the state should be defeated in the midterm elections this November. Locally speaking those figures are more evenly split with 31% of the opinion that their representative should be reelected against 32% who believe they should be defeated.

Chris Christie defeated the widely unpopular sitting Governor Jon Corzine last November in one of the more reliably Democratic states in the country. At the time he took office voters held a 57-35% favorable to unfavorable view of the new Governor meaning that despite his solid approval numbers at present they do represent something of a modest decline in popularity since January.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / MEL EVANS

Poll: Specter and Sestak race now a dead heat, both Senate hopefuls trail Republican Toomey

READ FULL STORY HERE

Just over a month until Pennsylvania’s Democratic Primary and Rasmussen Reports has dropped something of a bombshell on Arlen Specter’s campaign to retain his Senate seat.

Two new polls indicate that Senator Specter has fallen to his lowest level of support yet among Democrats and he continues to lag well behind with the general electorate. In his battle for the party nomination he now leads 7th District Congressman by a mere two-percent while trailing Republican Pat Toomey by ten-points.

Since one in ten Pennsylvania Democrats remain unsure of their preference for either Specter or Sestak the incumbent Senator’s 44-42% lead is now being depicted as a dead heat. Although he has been losing ground since the beginning of the year these new developments have to come as something of a surprise for Specter. Last month he enjoyed a 48-37% lead over Sestak and registered as high as 53% support as of January.

Arlen Specter still captures the strong support of quarter of Pennsylvania Democrats (25%) but 15% view him “very” unfavorably. The lesser known Sestak does better with those holding strong feelings. He registered a 17% very favorable against just a 4% very unfavorable rating according to Rasmussen. The health care issue is a divisive one amongst Democrats in the Keystone State just as it is for virtually all voters nationally. 60% of Democrats in Pennsylvania believe the health care bill passed last month to be a good thing for the country with 29% thinking it will have a negative impact. With 54% support Specter does better with those holding positive views of the reform bill. Sestak meanwhile does considerably better (59%) with those Democrats who oppose the bill meanwhile.

Regardless of who comes out on top of this heated primary battle they will face an uphill climb against Republican Pat Toomey. Running with a strong wind at his back during this favorable election cycle for the GOP, Toomey has jumped out to a 50-40% lead over Specter and an equally solid 47-36% advantage on Sestak. In the Toomey versus Specter matchup only 6% of voters are uncertain of whether they’d support either candidate while 4% suggest they’ll vote for someone else. Those figures grow to 12% and 5% respectively when looking at the potential matchup of Toomey against Sestak.

Most Pennsylvanians (53%) are against the recently passed health care bill through congress and six in ten voters (60%) would like to see it repealed. Senator Specter is being tied to the bill having voted for it and expressing vocal public support for its passage during a highly publicized series of town hall meetings last August. 84% of those favoring repeal not surprisingly support Pat Toomey’s campaign whereas 82% of the 37% minority of those Pennsylvanians against repeal side with Specter.

Senator Specter’s support bottomed out at around 36% during the town hall meeting debates last year. Although he has campaigned heavily in the months since his numbers have not increased past the 42% mark. Congressman Sestak meanwhile has been wedged between 35% and 38% support in Rasmussen surveys dating back to last October. Toomey leads either candidate by a wide margin among men, independents and narrowly among women. The Republican is viewed very favorably by 18% of the electorate in Pennsylvania with 10% holding a very unfavorable view. More than twice as many voters (33%) have a strongly unfavorable than favorable opinion (16%) of Arlen Specter. Joe Sestak is now in the negatives as well earning a very favorable opinion from 10% of Pennsylvanians against 12% who view him very unfavorably.

The narrow range of support for either Democratic potential corresponding to a consistent lead for Toomey gives the impression of a race that is stabilizing. This could make things difficult for a marked incumbent like Arlen Specter or a political upstart like Joe Sestak to change the minds of a large enough number of voters for victory in the fall.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / MATT ROURKE

Poll: Public is critical of Supreme Court, wants a younger and more moderate bench

READ FULL STORY HERE

An already tumultuous political environment is being stirred up again, this time by the Supreme Court. Soon to be 90-year old Justice John Paul Stevens will be retiring at the end of June opening the door for President Obama’s second nomination in just his second year in office.

Two polls from Rasmussen Reports and Fox News indicate that Americans are both dissatisfied with the current makeup of the court and think it to be too liberal. Like David Souter before him the Stevens retirement won’t do much to shake up the ideological balance of the court. Both were liberal judges stepping down at a time with a Democratic President in office. Still it appears that most of the public would prefer a justice with more conservative or mainstream leanings.

According to the Fox poll 52% want a more conservative appointment against just 29% who’d like the next justice to be more liberal than the general makeup of the court. That reflects the general tone of the electorate as measured by Rasmussen where 39% of voters find the Supreme Court to be too liberal for their liking. One-quarter (25%) think it too conservative and another 27% believe the current ideological balance to be about right. The public is split on what route President Obama will take in deciding his nominee. 45% believe he’ll choose a judge that is too liberal for their liking but 41% think the new justice will be within acceptable parameters.

Not surprisingly there is a party divide on the topic with better than three-quarters of Republicans (76%) thinking the President’s choice will be too liberal and the same percentage of Democrats believing he’ll pick a judge that reflects mainstream values. Non-affiliated voters however lean more conservative on the topic with just 27% believing Obama will be appoint a moderate judge against 56% who suggest his nominee with lean too far to the left. The public perception of President Obama certainly affects this notion. While twice as many voters believe Supreme Court justices should be guided by what is written in the Constitution rather than rest upon their own laurels of fairness, justice and equality, by a 44-32% margin more voters think Obama holds the opposite view.

Voters express some measure of dissatisfaction with the overall job performance of the current Supreme Court. Again according to Rasmussen just 35% think the judicial branch is doing either a “good” or “excellent” job against 62% who would rate their performance as either “fair” or “poor”. Those holding strong opinions lean even heavier toward the negative. Just one in twenty (5%) think the court if doing an excellent job and 22% rate the current body as poor. Americans also believe mandatory age or term limits should be imposed to curb the influence, or perhaps improve the effectiveness, of the Supreme Court. The Fox survey finds that nearly two-thirds of voters (65%) want a mandatory retirement age for justices with only 30% approving of the current standard for lifetime appointments.

In the event that such a mandatory age was to be set however what would it be? Nearly half of poll responders (48%) liked the idea of a forced retirement falling between the 65-74 year old age brackets. An additional 16% believe 75-79 is the correct cap on a justice’s age. 10% believe a justice should be able to serve past the age of 80 against 12% who think they should be forced out of their position before they turn 65. Of course there are certain problems with age restrictions that have not been addressed by this sort of polling. Most notably an age cap would encourage Presidents to nominate younger judges who would be able to spend more years on the bench. If the current age was capped at 70, for instance, what would stop President Obama from backing a candidate under the age of 40 and neglect anyone over 50? Still the broader polling done by Rasmussen and Fox on the topic points to an electorate displeased by both the current ideological composition and function of the Supreme Court.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Charles Dharapak

Analysis: Republicans currently on track to pick up between three and nine Senate seats

READ FULL STORY HERE

Seven months out from the midterm elections and the dynamics remain the same. The Republican Party is primed to make significant gains in both the House and Senate but with their pace stalling to some degree it is unlikely they’ll carry enough autumn momentum for a takeover of either.

Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball analysis released their April update this morning, focusing attention on the Senate. Although there have been subtle shifts in particular races since last month the overall picture indicating a likely GOP pickup of 7-seats in the Senate and 27 in the House remains the same from March to April.

The Republicans are protecting 18-seats in the Senate this election season. Ten of those eighteen are labeled by the Crystal Ball as “safe” for the GOP. Four additional states (Florida, Iowa, Louisiana and North Carolina) are being depicted as “likely” holds for the party. In Florida the big story is the primary challenge between former House Speaker Marco Rubio and sitting Governor Charlie Crist. Rubio is polling ahead of Crist and either Republican is likely to defeat Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meet in the fall. In Iowa Charles Grassley is the likely winner over Democratic Roxanne Conlin and Republicans David Vitter and Richard Burr appear to have the decided advantage in their races out of Louisiana and North Carolina respectively.

The GOP is clearly vulnerable in four other states; Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire and Ohio. All of which are labeled as “toss-up” races by Sabato. Chastened Senator Jim Bunning is retiring after 2010 and there is quite an ideological battle for the Republican nomination as his successor. Secretary of State Ted Greyson is the establishment candidate but Ron Paul’s son Rand has strong backing from moderates in the state favoring his more libertarian political slant as well. On the Democratic side Leiutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo is in a tussle with Attorney General Jack Conway. While either candidate, particularly against Paul, has opportunity for a victory in November it’s clearly uphill sledding for the Democratic Party in Kentucky during this political season.

Missouri has tilted toward the GOP in recent years as demonstrated by President Obama’s narrow loss here in 2008 despite a national popular vote margin of better than seven-percentage points. House Republican Roy Blunt is favored to win the race against Secretary of State Robin Carnahan. In New Hampshire former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte is banking on the Republican wave to help usher her in as the victor in the Granite State. She’ll have her hands full with popular Congressman Paul Hodes however who looks to pull off the modest upset for the Democrats. Lastly the bellwether state of Ohio features an interesting primary battle between Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner on the Democratic side. The winner will go on to face the favored former GOP Congressman Rob Portman.

Not surprisingly the Democrats head into the 2010 election season with a far more difficult task in protecting their majorities. This is reflected by numerous competitive Senate races amongst the 18-seats they are looking to hold onto after this November. Only in half of those races however can the Democrats truly bank on victory. This includes “safe” territory such as Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin as well as “likely” wins in the New York special election and Connecticut. Elsewhere danger lurks around every corner.

Senator Barbara Boxer is in the fight of her life in California. While the Crystal Ball predicts the left-leaning electorate could result in a narrow victory for her in the fall Republican’s Tom Campbell and Carly Fiorina are both capable of giving the embattled Senator a fight in a state that seems sick and tired of pretty much everything relating to politics. Colorado is a pure toss-up between two possible Democrats facing off against presumptive GOP candidate and Lietenant Governor Jane Norton. A far messier battle is underway in Barack Obama’s home state of Illinois. Democrat Alexi Giannoulias has corruption charges swirling around campaign but Republican Mark Kirk doesn’t seem content to run as conservative or moderate in this decidedly “blue” state.

Two other states with fascinating battles on their hands are Indiana and Pennsylvania. Brad Ellsworth has the difficult choir off trying to succeed popular Senator Evan Bayh who was successful for years in typically “red” Indiana. However Republican Dan Coats is running a lackluster campaign and while he still has the edge Indiana should be a battle down to the wire. In the Keystone State meanwhile the high profile fight for the Democratic nomination seems to be leaning in Senator Arlen Specter’s direction. Interestingly it is Congressman Joe Sestak who seems to so better against Republican nominee Pat Toomey in general election polling. Specter is banking on his experience and Toomey’s conservative politics in a left of center state to guide him to victory. Never the less Toomey and the GOP appear to have the edge in Pennsylvania.

Much to the Democrats dismay four other states show the likihood of Republican pickups in November. North Dakota is a no brainer for the GOP with retiring Democratic Senator Byron Dorgon giving way to Republican Governor John Hoeven. Three other states (Arkansas, Delaware and Nevada) meanwhile represent fertile territory for the GOP.

Even if Blanche Lincoln is able to defeat liberal challenger Bill Halter in next month’s primary the chances of retaining her post in Arkansas look fairly slim. Lincoln has been railed against nationally and in her home state by Republicans like Congressman John Boozman, her likely opponent. In Delaware the absence of Joe Biden to the office of Vice President and the refusal of his son Beau to run for the open Senate seat means it is more than likely that popular Congressman and former Governor Mike Castle is heavily favored to defeat Democrat Chris Coons. Lastly one of the more talked about Senate races is in Nevada where embattled Majority Leader Harry Reid is effectively behind any and all Republican challengers vying for his seat. Public anger towards Reid over health care and a strong grassroots movement by conservatives in his home state have made reelection unlikely. However with millions of dollars at his disposal and no powerful names in the Republican field to oppose him it’s a little early to count out Harry just yet.

As the Crystal Ball details the lay of the land it seems there are still a variety of possibilities remaining that could wind up with the seven-Republican Senate victories as predicted or a better or worse showing by the GOP. The ceiling for the GOP seems to be a pickup of nine-seats. This would include held seats by Republicans in all races where they lead decisively or the advantage swings their direction plus pick ups in all five incumbent Democratic toss ups and those races where the GOP has on outright lead. The worst reasonable expectation for Republicans would likely result in the Democrats holding on to a majority of those toss up races in their column plus two or three “steals” in races that current lean in the GOP’s direction. This could mean a pickup of just three Senate seats for the Republican Party. Averaging the two would ensure a safe estimate of six Republican pickups. Factoring at least one more for the GOP simply through the anti-incumbent, anti-Democratic wave that is blowing through this political season would place seven new Republicans in the Senate for 2011.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / JOSE SANCHEZ