Poll: Obama's approval rating declines in 49-states over first half of 2010

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Whatever the latest round of news, positive or negative may be, President Obama’s national approval rating has held seemingly steady for many months now. However consistent his standing with the American public is at large, when viewed at a state by state level there are wildly divergent opinions on the performance of the Commander in Chief.

According to Gallup, and most other pollsters, the President’s approval rating has been locked in the 45-50% range since early last fall when interest the health care debate peaked and Obama’s popularity dipped. Currently Gallup pegs the President with a 49% approval and 44% disapproval, but his ratings differ greatly between certain states and regions.

The overall picture is that of a Presidency trending downward in recent months. Obama’s 49% approval rating for the first half of 2010 is a considerable drop off from the 57% he enjoyed through the first six months of 2009. Still the President enjoys high levels of support from certain pockets of the country. States that Obama won by the widest of margins in the 2008 election continue, not surprisingly, to be the states where the President has the largest number of supporters. Gallup surveyed nearly 91,000 residents in all fifty states including 4,671 in Pennsylvania as part of their mid-year “State of the States” series.

Obama won 92.5% of the popular vote in Washington D.C. and the nation's capital remains strongest in support for the President with 85% of its residence approving of his job performance. With nearly 72% of the popular vote take in 2008 Hawaii was Obama’s second most supportive state. Hawaii remains strong with Obama to this day with 68% of responders approving of his Presidency. In total there are sixteen states that continue to deliver the President with a better than 50% approval rating and another fifteen where that approval ratings exceeds his disapproval. That is however down considerably from the second half of 2009 when Gallup’s previous study indicated all but nine states at over a 50% approval for Obama and only Idaho and Wyoming with a higher disapproval than approval rating for the President.

The downward trend for the administration in recent months does not shift the overall picture however. Of the 28-states (including Washington D.C.) that went for Obama in November, 2008 almost all rank as the President’s 27 most supportive in mid-2010. In each instance the President pulls in a positive net approval rating and stands at least 47%. The one exception is in the battleground state of New Hampshire where Obama has cratered to a 41-52% approval to disapproval margin. The “Granite State” has long been viewed as something of a political outsider in the largely liberal New England so its negative views of the President’s job performance while eye opening are not exactly shocking revelations.

Obama’s approval rating is currently under-40% in seven states, most of whom voted heavily against the then Illinois Senator in 2008. Only Montana, a state that the President lost by less than 12,000 votes in 2008 but has just a 38% approval rating with now represents a significant shift. Pennsylvania in true swing-state fashion lands almost perfectly in the middle of Obama’s popularity rankings at 26th position and with an approval to disapproval rating (48-45%) very similar to his overall national standing. New Jersey meanwhile is the President’s twelfth most supportive state (52-41%) and Delaware scores him his third best ratings (62-29%) in the nation.

With the President’s popularity from one state to the next differing considerably so to not consistent is his falloff from Gallup’s last study concluded at the beginning of the year. The top five states where Obama’s approval rating has fallen by the largest percentile are Missouri (-14.5%), Utah (-13.8%), Vermont (-13.7%), New Hampshire (-13.6%) and Kentucky (-12.8). In the solidly red states of Utah and Kentucky his drop is fairly consistent with the overall disapproval registered within the Republican Party. Missouri however was a battleground state in 2008 that he lost narrowly to Senator John McCain. New Hampshire is a blue state that the President now see's dropping heavily into the negatives while the ultra-blue state of Vermont while experiencing significant deterioration in popularity remains solid for Obama.

With an eight-point dip in his national approval rating positives at a state level are difficult to find. In fact the President is more popular than he was six months ago in just one state. Delaware has actually shown tiny improvement for Obama since the end of 2009 delivering him a 62% approval rating which is about a single point improvement from six months ago. Other states where the President is experiencing a comparatively softer landing are Hawaii (-2.8%), Colorado (-3.3%), Mississippi (-4.8%), New Mexico (-4.9%) and Texas (-4.9%). In Pennsylvania (-9.4%) and New Jersey (-11%) meanwhile Obama’s dip in approval exceeds that of his overall decline at a national level.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Cliff Owen

Analysis: Lackluster approval ratings after first 500-days can be overcome, history shows

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Depending on which poll you reference President Obama’s approval ratings have seemingly been locked into place for several months now.

Typically in the 45-50% range the President has suffered through a prolonged stretch of mediocre popularity ever since the health care issue became a central focus last summer. Many are quick to suggest that the path to reelection for Obama is likely to be steep and treacherous. According at least to one reputable pollster however the effect of a President’s popularity less than a year and a half into their first term serves as little to no barometer in assessing their chances for reelection.

According to Gallup President Obama’s approval rating for the week ending May 30th reached a new low of 46%. It has since rebounded some, currently situated at 50% as of yesterday, June 2nd. While these figures are fairly moribund by most standards when comparing them to the popularity of Commander in Chief’s at the same point in their respective Presidencies a mixed bag of evidence appears.

Gallup compared the historical approval ratings of President Obama and his eleven most recent processors who resided in the White House dating back to Harry Truman. Seven of the eleven were either reelected or won their own term while serving as President due to their assumed role to the position following a death in office. Two other Presidents (Jimmy Cater, George H.W. Bush) were defeated for reelection. Gerald Ford was also defeated running for his own term as sitting President after serving out the final two and half years of Richard Nixon’s second-term ended abruptly by scandal and resignation. The assassination of John F. Kennedy meanwhile cut short his Presidency after only 34-months.

President Obama has reached his 500th day as the nation’s 44th President. Here is a list of where the other aforementioned Commander’s in Chief stood at the same point in their Presidencies;

44) Barack Obama – 46%
43) George W. Bush – 70%
42) Bill Clinton – 46%
41) George H.W. Bush – 67%
40) Ronald Reagan – 45%
39) Jimmy Carter – 44%
38) Gerald Ford – 46%
37) Richard Nixon – 55%
36) Lyndon Johnson – 67%
35) John F. Kennedy – 71%
34) Dwight Eisenhower – 62%
33) Harry Truman – 33%

The overall 500-day average between the eleven most recent Presidents of 59% means that Barack Obama lingers well behind the statistical norm. A deeper look however reveals that such a figure is bereft of much substance at least in terms of what it means for the overall life of a Presidency.

Five other Presidents; Harry Truman, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton also had approval ratings at 46% or worse 500-days into their terms. While Carter and Ford failed to win in the next election Bill Clinton won easily in 1996 and Reagan did so in a landslide in 1984. Harry Truman on the other hand had carried lifeless approval ratings for much of his first term but never the less staged one of the most improbable political upsets in American history in 1948.

On the other hand strong approval ratings early into a Presidency serve as no guarantee for future success. George H.W. Bush lost convincingly to Bill Clinton in 1992 despite carrying impressive approval ratings of 67% into the middle of 1990. His son George W. meanwhile only narrowly won reelection in 2004 despite a 9/11 bolstered approval rating of 70% in June of 2002. Bush would end up leaving office in January of 2009 with some of the worst approval ratings for a President in history.

Lyndon Johnson was already in the midst of his first full term as President having won in a landslide in 1964. Yet his impressive popularity 500-days into office did not translate well down the road. Johnson’s approval would fall into the low-40 percentiles by late-1967 as the controversial Vietnam War engulfed his Presidency and overshadowed his domestic achievements. Johnson won with over 61% of the popular vote in 1964 but found the political landscape too treacherous to navigate and chose not to run for reelection four years later.

Then again not all examples of high popularity early into a Presidency are a fluke. Dwight Eisenhower was consistently well liked over his eight years in office and won reelection in a landslide in 1956. Richard Nixon may have left the White House in disgrace but his approval rating of 55% at day number 500 paved the way for an historic landslide victory over his Democratic rival in 1972. We’ll never know what political fate was held in store for John F. Kennedy’s first term. His approval ratings of 71% as of June, 1962 and 58% upon his death in November, 1963 however made a second-term appear imminent had it not been felled by an assassins bullet.

As it stands as of this morning President Obama has an overall first-term approval rating of nearly 55%. While his level of popularity in recent months has clearly diminished Obama supporters need to look back no further than the previous Democratic President for inspiration. Bill Clinton’s 46% approval rating according to Gallup matches that of Obama’s 500-days into their Presidencies. Furthermore Clinton won reelection by eight and a half percentage-points despite posting an overall first-term approval of just 49.6%.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / CHARLES DHARAPAK

Analysis: Shrinking Obama job approval in some states makes for tougher path to reelection

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It seems a little early to be talking about the 2012 Presidential election but certain political trends that have been witnessed over the past year point to the possibility of a shakeup already in the works. The third entry in Gallup’s “State of the States” series for 2009 takes a look at President Obama’s job approval from across the country.

The released data shows a cumulative rating of 57.6% for Obama during his first calendar year in office. That is considerably higher than the President’s average approval rating over the past several months from Gallup that indicates support of around half the country. At present Gallup pegs Obama’s job approval at 51% with 41% disapproving. This is also notably higher than other February polls released from the likes of Rasmussen Reports, Fox News and Marist that show the President scoring on average a less than desirable 45-46% rating.

None the less the recent study is a helpful way to track where the President is most and least popular at a state by state level. Since the approval for a President does not rise and fall evenly between states with the changing political landscape it’s generally not a good idea to speculate what Obama’s current job approval ratings are at a state level. If we average the President’s approval rating over the past several weeks as being 50%, at least according to Gallup polling, than compare that to his 57.6% average from 2009 we are left with around a 12.5% drop in appeal.

For hypothetical purposes only we can then apply that 12.5% decline to each state and perhaps get a better read on the current levels of approval for President Obama across the electorate. The table below shows Obama’s approval rating in each state for 2009, our adjusted ratings for 2010, his popular vote margin from 2008 and the difference between that election and his current figures.

The above data points to the possibility that most of President Obama’s losses of late have been in solidly “blue” states from 2008. This should comfort supporters knowing that many of the built-in electoral advantages from that election appear to be safely in tact. On the flip side however the vast majority of post-election gains for the President appear to be in states where his approval rating is already low and where he was not competitive in 2008. In between we have several states that, if they follow current trends, could be in play for 2012 where they were viewed as solid or likely wins for Obama shortly after his resounding victory in 2008.

For classification purposes lets place every state where President Obama currently has an approval rating exceeding 58% in the “safe” column. Those where his job approval is less than 58% but greater than 53% are “likely” for the President. States where Obama registers below 47% but greater than 42% would be “unlikely” victories in 2012, states where he is below 42% are solid “red” for whoever his Republican opponent turns out to be. Then we have the gray area where Obama’s current approval rating rests above 47% but below 53% for a category we’ll classify as “battleground” states.

Obama won comfortably in eleven states (CT, MA, NY, RI, IL, CA, VT, DE, HI, MD, DC) including the District of Columbia in 2008. Those states accumulated 153-electoral votes for the President, well more than half the 270 needed for victory. Currently the President’s approval rating has dropped below the 58% threshold in his home state of Illinois, California, Delaware and Maryland. Without those four his “safe” electoral total would plummet to a mere 64-votes, this before new census data to be released later this year will reshape things further.

The picture is similarly disturbing for the President when discussing those states that fall in the category of likely victories in 2012 when compared to his success in 2008. Against Senator John McCain then Senator Barack Obama had twelve state wins by comfortable margins of 53-58%. Although the electoral clout (110) from 2008 isn’t much different than it is now (104), Obama has just five states (MN, NJ, IL, CA, DE) he can categorize as likely to stay blue in 2012. Overall Obama won 23-states containing 263-electoral votes by more than 53% in his election victory of less than a year and a half ago. Based solely off his current approval rating that present total is just twelve-states and 168-votes strong.

Lastly we take a look at the “battleground” or “swing” states that have played a crucial role in deciding the first two elections of the past decade and may do so again in 2012. Obama had only six states (MO, FL, NC, IN, VA, MT) where he pulled in between 47-53% of the popular vote in 2008. Now in 2010 based off his currently job approval there are a whopping 29-states that fit that description. Battleground states made up just eighty-electoral votes in the last election but as of right now they are on pace to contain 227.

The President can perhaps take solace in the fact that he managed to win 23 of those 29 states currently classified as part of the electoral battleground. However nine of those states and 81-electoral votes have moved from likely Obama victories to battleground states over the course of the fifteen months since Election 2008. On the other hand of the six battleground states Obama lost in 2008 only Missouri and possibly Georgia offer him a realistic shot at victory in 2012. The President would need to win every state he is currently polling strongly in and around 45% of the many battleground states where his approval ratings average out to around 50%. While it would be silly to consider those long odds the current electoral landscape does present a significantly greater challenge to President Obama now and perhaps as far off as November, 2012 than it did for 2008.

It is of course very early to be analyzing an electoral map scenario for 2012 especially without knowing who the President’s opponent is likely to be at that point in time. Still much of the information gathered is valuable in assessing current trends that could ultimately affect the political landscape in the coming years.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / SUSAN WALSH

Poll: Obama approval rating in Pennsylvania, fourteenth highest in nation

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President Obama’s approval rating in Pennsylvania through his first five and half months in office stood at 65%. The Keystone state ranked fourteenth in the nation regarding its support for the President and surpassed the overall 63% approval rating nationally Obama enjoyed through the month of June.

These were the findings of a newly released Gallup poll measuring the President’s popularity from state-to-state over the first several months of his term in office. The survey was conducted by interviews of over 81,000 adults, over 5,000 of which reside in Pennsylvania, from January 21st through June 30th.

As Gallup is quick to point out, the results do not include Obama’s downturn in polls since July. Gallup in particular at one point had the President’s approval down to just 52% a couple of weeks ago before a slight rebound of late has him settling back to the mid and upper-50s range. A ten-poll average of figures released since late-July have the President’s overall rating pegged at 55%, some eight points less than the totals collected from this Gallup study completed six weeks ago.


Still the ordering of states ranked by their approval for the President has remained largely unchanged through early-August. As of this end of June survey only two states (Alaska, Wyoming) approved of Obama’s performance by less than 50% and none showed an approval to disapproval disparity of less than ten percentage points in his favor.
The President enjoyed approval ratings of better than 70% in nine states/districts (District of Columbia, Hawaii, Vermont, Maryland, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York, Illinois, Rhode Island) representing nine of the ten most supportive “blue” states in the last election. Only Delaware - no doubt bolstered by home state Vice Presidential nominee Joe Biden on the ticket - was one of the ten most Pro-Obama states in 2008 that now ranks outside the top-ten in approval rating.

By and large President Obama scores highest just where one might expect. The typically left-leaning states of recent elections in the Northeast, Upper-Midwest and Pacific Coast regions go strongest for the Democratic President. Conversely the President struggles most with populations in the Southeast, Lower-Midwest and the old Western Frontier.

Obama’s best showing in a “red” state carried by John McCain in the last election would be North Dakota where he scores an approval rating in line with his then national average of 63%. In the five most competitive states from the 2008 election that Obama won or lost by five percentages points or less his cumulative approval stood at about 60%. As far as his approval in states won in 2008 the President does worst in Colorado with a 55% rating and ranking of 44.

In addition to the President’s 65% approval rating in Pennsylvania, ranking as his fourteenth most supportive state, New Jersey ranks tenth with a 69% rating for Obama through June. Delaware as mentioned above has sagged in comparison to other “blue” states but Obama still pulls in a 60% approval in the First State, good for 31st on the list.

Poll: Obama approval rating slipping in key areas

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Hardly anyone assumed the first several months of Obama’s Presidency would be easy, but lately things are looking downright difficult.

Surrounded by his embattled health care reform proposals, decidedly mixed economic data and a minor racial controversy the President has seen his approval numbers dip to the point where his administration might have to start taking notice. Although negative feelings aren’t being felt across the board to the same degree in which they plagued most of President Bush’s second term, “Obama Mania” has certainly subsided while the voices of opposition number greater and grow louder.

The cumulative average of ten recent polls taken since mid-July place President Obama’s approval rating at 55%. While this is still a positive number the media focus is all about momentum, and in terms of momentum 55% marks a sharp decline. It’s quite possible that the bottom has not been reached yet either. Gallup has Obama at a 52% approval rating with his negatives reaching 41% - both far and away the worst numbers of his young administration.

The news out of Rasmussen Reports is even worse President. Surveying “likely voters” instead of registered voters or general adults as most polls do, Rasmussen has the President’s approval at 48%. Furthermore, the number of those strongly disapproving of the job he is doing outnumber those who strongly approve by 12%, also the worse disparity yet for the Obama administration.

Lately bad news has proven easy to find and a difficult landmine to sidestep for the administration. Across the board polls show that at least a plurality of adults consider President Obama to have mishandled the racially tinged dispute involving the arrest of black Harvard professor Henry Louis Gates Jr. by white officer James Crowley. Obama admitted to have chosen his wording poorly and planned to have both men attend the White House for a casual outdoor discussion. Press Secretary Robert Gibbs was bombarded with questions recently about the issue and the President’s falling approval ratings, dismissing the latter as unimportant.

Surprisingly perhaps modest gains made by the stock market in recent weeks and the imminent confirmation of hand picked Supreme Court Judge Sotomayor to the Supreme Court have apparently done little to boost Obama’s favorability. Some columnists such as Dan Balz of the Washington Post and Katie Connolly of Newsweek question the validity of numbers as relating to an actual decline in support for the President however. Balz took note of a focus group of mildly dissatisfied but still optimistic independents. Connolly in her piece pointed towards a PR struggle and the mere perception of negativity over actual negativity toward the President and his policies.

Perhaps what these polls show most clearly is that Obama hasn’t been specific enough in his plans, especially while his opponents have been so explicit in their criticisms. He’s losing because he’s combating particulars with generalities. When respondents are answering questions about “Obama’s plan,” it’s still not even clear what that plan is. The president certainly hasn’t detailed it. In this debate, specifics will always prevail over abstractions, but fortunately for Obama, that’s not such a hard problem to remedy. – Katie Connolly (Newsweek)

Still it’s hard to ignore the anatomy of what makes up Obama’s declining overall approval ratings. The proof may just be in the pudding after all - some examples below.

* 50% of likely voters expect the quality of health care to decline if reform is passed by the President and Congress - Rasmussen
* An equal number (46-46%) approve and disapprove of the way the President is handling health care policy – Time
* 41% of respondents disapproved of the way President Obama handled the Gates arrest compared to 29% who approved - Pew
* Just 39% approve of the way the President is handling the federal budget. That’s a ten-point drop in three months - AP-GFK
* By a margin of 49-47%, more adults disapprove of the way President Obama is handling the economy than approve – USA Today
* An even number of those (24% ea.) are very confident or not confident at all that Obama can “bring about real change to the way things are done in Washington” - Diageo/Hotline
* Since entering office only 32% of voters think things have gotten better under Obama. 30% say they have gotten worse, and 37% say they’ve stayed the same – Quinnipiac
* In the month of July consumer confidence has been at an average index level of (-50) – ABC News