Poll: Americans divided but Doctors united on health care reform?

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Americans might be far from united in their views regarding health care reform but at least the medical community seems to be forming a consensus.

The recent results of a New England Journal of Medicine poll of 2,130 doctors as first reported by Reuters finds that 63% are in favor of both public and private health care options. Just 27% said they wanted private options only with one in ten doctors favoring public options exclusively.

A majority of doctors (55%) also would like to see the Medicare age dropped a decade to cover those over the age of 55 according to the poll. Smaller surveys found that 73% of doctors said they ought to care for the uninsured and underinsured. 67% suggested they were willing to accept limits on payments for expensive drugs and procedures as a way to save money and make basic care available to more people.

The top-line results closely mirror those found from an April study of over 5,100 physicians conducted by the American Medical Association. In that poll physicians were broken down into four separate groups; primary care providers, medical specialists or sub-specialists, surgeons or surgical specialists, and all others. The figures were fairly consistent across the board. Medical specialists were most in favor of both private and public options to the tune of 62.4%. Surgeons were the least in favor grouping of physicians but still favored the dual program by 55.6%. Overall 58.3% of physicians favored both private and public option against just 23% who were opposed.

Perhaps as a result of his recent live speech to Congress recent polls have shown a slight up tick in the number of Americans favoring President Obama’s plans to reform health care as well as approving of his handling of the issue overall. Recently released a CNN/Opinion Research poll shows the President back over the 50-percentile threshold in the number of those approving of his handling of health care policy. This is up seven-points from their prior poll conducted before his live speech. Rasmussen also showed a post-speech bounce in the number of Americans supporting Obama’s proposals although recent evidence suggests that things may have settled back down to his pre-speech numbers mired in the mid-40 percentiles.

The President’s plan to overhaul the $2.5 trillion industry to help cover many of the 46-million Americans without health coverage continues to rage on as a hot social topic. Many are against the specifics of the plan whereas others deride it for the increased government control it employs and massive debt it would likely leave. Even with the American Medical Association’s opposition to public option a significant number of its 250,000 represented physicians and doctors at large are never the less well in favor of a public and private option.

Poll: Gov. Corzine still trails in New Jersey, but by how much?

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Depending on what poll you are looking at the highly conspicuous New Jersey race for Governor may either be tightening, widening or staying about the same. As we head into mid-September a couple of recent polls shed some light on the current state of affairs in this Garden State showdown.

Two surveys from Quinnipiac and Rasmussen describe a race from differing perspectives using similar numbers. The Quinnipiac poll for starters now has Republican challenger Chris Christie ahead of New Jersey Governor John Corzine 47-37% with independent Christopher Daggett pulling in nine-percent of likely voters. This points to the possibility of a failed attack ad campaign from the Governor and a widening race overall. Last month Christie’s lead over Corzine was pitted at a more modest six-point gap, 46-40%.

Rasmussen meanwhile has the spread at eight-percentage points with the challenger leading 46-38%, 6% for Daggett and one in ten New Jersey voters remaining undecided. As the race heads toward the home stretch it seems that voters are growing less certain of either candidate. Christie’s eight-point lead in the Rasmussen poll remains steady from a month ago, but both candidates have shown a drop of four-percentages points from a 50-42% race in August. Furthermore Rasmussen points to a gap that may in fact be closing in favor of Governor Corzine. When “leaners” are added to the mix Chris Christie’s lead is down to just four-points.

At 42% the Republican challenger has seen a six-point drop in the number of those with a favorable view of him. Governor Corzine meanwhile has jumped nearly ten-percentage points over the past month to a 45% favorable rating. Corzine’s unfavorables however remain considerably higher.

Moving our attention back to the Quinnipiac survey we see that while Governor Corzine does have improving numbers amongst Democratic voters the 74-15% split he has with his own party is far worse than the 86-8% support Christie receives from Republicans. While there is still the possibly for Corzine to cultivate grater support within his party it seems clear the independent vote is where he is losing this race. Christie’s lead amongst such voters is 46-30% over the Governor with 16% going to Daggett in a possible role of spoiler.

The launching of attack ads from Corzine-camp has proven to be relatively ineffective, just as Christie’s criticisms of the Governor have failed to gain much traction. A plurality of voters (49-43%) finds it unfair that Corzine attacks Christie for his loan to a former associate in the U.S. Attorney’s office. By a margin of 47-45% most feel unmerited criticism of Governor Corzine’s relationship with a former labor leader. There is an even 47-47% split meanwhile of those considering Christie’s attacks on the Governor’s failure to guard against New Jersey’s economic collapse to be warranted.

"Just about everyone has seen Gov. Jon Corzine's TV ads knocking Christopher Christie's ties to the Bush team, but most question whether it's a legitimate issue. “Unfair” they say…The Democratic attacks about Christie's loan to his former co-worker score a little higher. Christie gets a split on his ads criticizing Corzine for failing to protect New Jersey against the economic downturn." -- Maurice Carroll / Quinnipiac University Polling Institute Director

What is interesting when reviewing the figures released by both of these surveys is how they differ on topic of each candidate’s approval rating. The Rasmussen poll shows Governor Corzine with a 40% approval rating amongst New Jersey voters but Quinnipiac has his number considerably lower at 34%. The numbers for Christie meanwhile are nearly identical between the two polls but Rasmussen shows a decline in support for the Republican whereas Quinnipiac

No Republican has won a statewide race in New Jersey since 1997. The political climate in the Garden State favors a possible GOP takeover in 2010, but if in fact the numbers for Corzine closely mirror those found in the Rassmussen survey the possibility of a tight race heading into the homestretch could be likely. That said, with the incumbent Governor in all likelihood trailing and short on time to catch up the next batch of October polling could reveal the eventual winner in New Jersey.

Poll: Obama's speech earns positive reviews, mostly from Democrats

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President Barack Obama’s speech calling for an end to partisan squabbling over the issue of health care reform generates positive reviews in a just released poll from CNN. These were the results from a survey of 427 adults who watched the speech last evening and shared their thoughts on Obama’s performance.

The top line results indicate that 56% of the viewers had a “very” positive reaction to the President’s speech and 77% gave at least a somewhat positive response. Only 21% indicated a reaction that was either somewhat or very negative. These findings have to be welcomed by President Obama and reform minded Democrats currently slipping in the health care debate according to most recent polls. Three recent surveys from CNN, AP-GFK and Rasmussen show the number of Americans disapproving of the way the President is handling the health care issue to be between 52-53%.

One noticeable quirk regarding the CNN poll of the President’s speech from last evening is the number of responses from each political party. According to the survey only 18% of viewers identified themselves as Republicans. 45% identified as Democrats with a large 37% claiming to be political independents. The huge disparity between Democrats and Republicans polled no doubt played a large role in the overwhelmingly positive numbers for Obama. Still after watching last night’s speech there is a clear increase in the confidence viewers have in the President and his policies regarding health care.

Thirteen percent more viewers are now in favor of the President’s plan to reform health care after watching his speech. There was also a ten-point jump from pre to post-speech in the number of those agreeing that Obama’s policies will move the country in the right direction.

Unfortunately the CNN survey does not show the exact numbers broken down by political party. With Republicans making up only 18% of viewers in this poll numbers tell us that only about 77 of them were sampled amongst the 427 total. Such a small sample from the GOP is hardly a representative figure. More importantly we don’t know exactly what those 77 Republicans felt about the speech although we can surmise that the 21% of negative responses come largely from the GOP camp.

Democrats making up 45% of the viewers questioned surely played an overwhelming role in the high numbers Obama generated from his speech. It would have been particularly interesting to see how independents, making up 37% of those polled, rated the affair. If for instance every Democrat gave Obama either a somewhat or very positive grade on the speech and every Republican gave him negative marks, we could speculate that over 90% of independents were won over by Obama last night. This of course seems unlikely so the true impact of the President’s speech remains a mystery at this moment.

Regardless of the poor sampling from this poll it seems obvious that a clear majority of Americans were impressed by President Obama’s words last evening. Whether his words fully reassured supporters or shifted the opinion of any doubters will likely not be revealed for many more days however. Stayed tuned.

Labor Day Poll: Labor unions are losing public support

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Summer's unofficial end has come to pass with the conslusion of the holiday weekend. Very much on the mind of Americans this Labor Day is the role that labor unions play in our economy, particularly during these struggling times. The public perception of unions according to two new polls has turned increasing sour over the past year.

With the national unemployment at nearly 9.7% and at its highest level since the early-80s labor unions are no doubt shouldering much of the criticism in the eyes of many Americans, particularly the millions of those out of work. Gallup and Rasmussen both released the results of some polling concluded just in time for the holiday.

In a sharp decline from recent years fewer than half of Americans (48%) now approve of the role labor unions play in our society. While 66% of Americans still consider unions beneficial to their own members, the 48% figure collected by Gallup marks a staggering drop of eleven percentage-points from a year ago and down from 65% in 2004. The struggling economy no doubt takes a toll on public perception. The last time Gallup indicated an approval rating for labor unions anywhere near 50% was in 1979 and ’81 when the total dropped to 55% in the midst of another economic downturn.

Gallup has been tracking public opinion on labor unions since around the time of the National Labor Relations Act passed in 1936. The following year the poll found that 72% of citizens approved of the role of labor unions. That number ballooned to an all-time high from 1954-57 when three quarters of the American public had a positive view of union labor. Starting in the late-60s the number of those approving began to shrink, this in conjunction with a slowing economy and stronger Republican influence on politics from the end of the 60s through the early-90s. With the economy soaring in the late-90s however approval spiked again to 66%.

A substantial number of Americans blame labor unions for the struggling auto industry according to Gallup. Those not in favor of the industry bailouts had their negative views exacerbated, and a growing number of Americans see labor unions hurting the companies they are employed with. In terms of their impact on the overall U.S. economy a record high 51% think labor unions are hurting the situation against 39% who think they are mostly helping.

Numbers such as these are reflected in latest Rasmussen survey on the topic. With just 13% considering Labor Day to be one of America’s most important holidays the total of those who feel labor unions make our country weaker is at 45%. Only 26% suggest that unions have made our country stronger with nearly half of poll responders (48%) of the opinion that these unions have outlasted their usefulness. The perceptions Americans have of their fellow workers are also increasingly negative. 36% say Americans do not work as hard as people in other countries against just 30% who think we work harder.

A plurality of Americans (49%) still favor the existence of labor unions but the gap is noticeable between genders and political party affiliation. Rasmussen contends that 58% of men against just 33% of women have negative views toward union labor, considering it to have made our country weaker. Not surprisingly given their longtime affiliation with labor unions Democrats have a largely positive view (64%) with six in ten Republicans viewing unions unfavorably.

While not as staggering a drop as indicated by the accompanying Gallup poll Rasmussen figures show a six-percent decline in union favorability from a year ago.

Poll: Pennsylvanians surveyed on range of issues

Just as they did two months ago the Franklin & Marshall survey provides a helpful guide to the latest social and political trends that help shape the opinions of Pennsylvanian voters. The latest results that can be viewed here in full track the progress of several important and interesting topics while tracking shifts in public opinion since June. Below is a list of some of the poll highlights and key findings from this most recent release.

1) Pennsylvanians hold increasingly negative views on direction of state

The current economy and state budget impasse has no doubt taken a toll on the perceptions of Pennsylvanians since June. Only 33% of residents now think the Keystone is headed in the right direction. This marks a staggering eleven-point drop from June and is the worst total since March of 2004. Correspondingly there has been an 11% jump in the number of Pennsylvanians who think their state is off on the wrong the track. At 59% this is the highest number ever recorded by the Franklin & MarshallI survey dating back to the spring of 1995.

2) Majority of Pennsylvanians the same financially as a year ago, but many more worse off than better off

Showing an increase from June but closely mirroring the results from a March poll 52% if Pennsylvanian adults say their family’s financial situation is about the same from this time a year ago. 39% however say they are worse off against just 9% who claim to be better off. The 9% figure in particular is the lowest total ever recorded by this survey. Yet many Pennsylvanians still hold a positive views of their family fortunes looking ahead a year from now. 31% expect to be better off against just 19% who think they’ll be worse off. Nearly half (47%) expect their financial situation to remain about the same.

3) Amid budget crisis, Governor Rendell’s approval rating drops to new low

For the first time since being elected Ed Rendell has seen his favorable ratings slip to the point where more Pennsylvanians now disapprove than approve of the Governor. That might be putting it nicely. Rendell’s favorables have dropped ten-points to 32% in two months and his unfavorable rating at 53% means there is now a huge gap of twenty-one percentage points separating the positive from negative. In June the Pennsylvania Governor still have a 42-40% positive split in favorability according to the Franklin & Marshall survey.

4) Many blame State Legislature for budget woes, lack trust and confidence in body overall

While Governor Rendell has been hit hard by Pennsylvania’s budget crisis he is hardly alone in shouldering the blame from voters. When asked who is more to blame for a budget not having been passed on time 31% blame the Governor but 54% accuse the State Legislature of dragging their collective feet. Pennsylvanians do have more trust in the Legislature than the Governor (48-36%) in handling the budget, but their favorable ratings are even lower than that of Rendell overall. When asked what kind of job the Legislature is doing 58% suggested only a fair performance, more (20%) suggested they were doing a poor job than good (18%). Zero percent meanwhile said they were doing an “excellent” job.

5) President Obama still viewed favorably in Pennsylvania but his negatives are climbing

Barack Obama won Pennsylvania by ten and a half percentage points in the last election and while his in-state approval in the mid-50s remains steady over the past six months the number of those with an unfavorable view of the President is also climbing. With an increase of ten percentage points since June and sixteen from a March survey 37% of Pennsylvanians now view Obama unfavorably. The number of those undecided is down to 7% and the President's net approval stands at eighteen-points in the Keystone State.

6) Specter still having problems in Pennsylvania but he’s ahead of Toomey, Sestak

Arlen Specter pushes ahead with his bid to retain a Senate seat this fall. From party switches to hostile town-hall meetings its been a quite a year so far for the veteran politician. Specter is still fighting an uphill battle in the war of perception with Pennsylvania voters. His favorable to unfavorable ratings are at 35-42%, virtually unchanged from two months ago. Specter is still the odds on favorite to best Joe Sestak in this year’s primary leading him by 26% although 46% remain undecided. The Senator is also doing fairly well in hypothetical match ups against Republican nominee Pat Toomey. Currently Specter’s lead is 37-29% with 25% undecided, an improvement from June.

7) Pennsylvanians still have lukewarm attitudes towards health care reform

51% of Pennsylvanians are opposed to the health care proposals being discussed by congress against just 34% in favor. This is a wider gap that what we have seen coming from national figures and points to an increasingly difficult sell for Obama and Democrats in what is a key battleground state. 57% of adults also suggest that the concerns expressed by those in opposition of healthcare reform at town hall meetings represent their feelings at least in part. A majority of Pennsylvanians (57%) also do not think President Obama can reform our country’s health care system and a plurality (48%) do not think reform will improve the country’s economic situation in the long run.

8) Most Pennsylvanian’s show displeasure with the quality of their government

Just over a quarter (27%) of Pennsylvanians are satisfied with the quality of their state government, and virtually no one (1%) thinks their politicians are doing an excellent job overall. 18% of Keystone State adults think their leaders are doing a poor job with a majority (54%) giving them only fair marks in Pennsylvania. Not surprisingly most want to see members of the state House or representatives not reelected in the next election. While the 52-29% gap is a large one a similarly large disparity persists when asking individuals if they would like to see their own state representative reelected. 46% seem happy with their local politicians against 29% who do not.

9) More Democrats than Republicans in Pennsylvania but conservatives widen lead over self-described liberals

Pennsylvania registration figures show considerably more Democrats than Republicans but in terms of ideology and self-identification the gap is shrinking. The latest Franklin & Marshall poll shows a 47-41-8% breakdown of Democrats versus Republicans and independents. August was a good month for conservatives meanwhile. The 43% figure represents the highest total of conservatives in Pennsylvania since at least 1999 when the topic was first polled. Liberals on the other hand shrunk to 16% tied for their second worst showing of the decade. In the last five years liberals have averaged 18.3% to 35.3% for conservatives and 41.2% for moderates.

10) Pennsylvanians views on abortion and religion remain relatively consistent

The percentage of Pennsylvanians who believe abortion should be legal under certain or all circumstances remains consistent from recent surveys. Three-quarters (75%) share this view with a slight bump in the number of those wanting it legal under any circumstance (21% from 18%) and a minor decrease in those who want it legal in certain instances (54% from 58%). The latest survey also shows a small bump from 25% to 32% in the number of those taken the Bible’s scriptures literally but an eight-point decrease in the number who treat it more as an allegory. The number of those who consider the book a collection of fables, legends and moral precepts remains steady from June at 17%.

Poll: Yankees are World Series favorites, Patriots or Steelers to win Super Bowl

For certain sports fans September is the most wonderful time of the year.

This weekend the college football season begins, followed quickly by the start of the 2009 NFL campaign. For baseball fans September also marks the stretch run where pennant races heat up and great divisional match ups are plentiful. Rasmussen Reports recently conducted some annual surveys on pro-football and baseball as we move closer to the fall.

Heading into the last month of the regular season the New York Yankees have eclipsed the Boston Red Sox as the team most baseball fans interview in this poll of 1,797 responders think will win the World Series. This represents a large shift from mid-July when the Bo Sox were the choice of 20% of MLB fans against just 11% for the Bronx Bombers. Now the two arch rivals are shown to have swapped positions. 25% of responders pick the Yankees to win the Fall Classic and confidence in Boston’s chances has dropped to 10%.

The Red Sox are in a distant second place three-way tie with the Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals. The Phillies good play of late and addition of starter Cliff Lee has no doubt bolstered their chances in the court of public opinion as their percentage has increased two-points to 10% since mid-July. That’s also three percentage points better than the results gathered in a July Harris poll. Like Philadelphia the Cardinals enjoy a comfortable lead in their division and have been the National League’s hottest team over the past month. The Red Sox meanwhile linger 6.5 games behind a Yankees team who has posted baseball’s best record at 84-48. The Los Angeles Dodgers who have struggled since the All Star break have dropped to 9% in the poll.

In terms of confidence in their favorite team the Yankees also have baseball’s most optimistic fan base. 71% of Yankee fans think their team will win the World Series. Perhaps oddly 68% of Detroit Tigers fans, second most of any team, think their team will win it all in October. Only 4% of baseball fans league wide have confidence in the Tigers who never the less lead the mediocre American League Central division by 3.5 games. Majorities of Red Sox (58%) and Phillies fans (51%) have confidence in their team’s chances to take the crown. In spite of being in the heat of the NL Wild Card race just 7% of San Francisco fans meanwhile think their young Giants team can win the Series.

Shifting attention from the diamond to the gridiron NFL fans are split between reigning champion Pittsburgh and previously undefeated New England for who will win this season’s Super Bowl. Winners of two of the past four Lombardi Trophies the Steelers bring in 14% of football fans, whereas the Patriots no doubt benefiting from the return of star quarterback Tom Brady match that figure.

The tough NFC East features three teams garnering measurable confidence from observers. The 2007 Super Bowl champion New York Giants rank third in the survey overall with just over 8% of NFL followers thinking they can win their second title in three years. Perhaps do to their overall popularity the Dallas Cowboys also draw support from 8% of the football community. The Cowboys missed the playoffs last season and are without star receiver Terrell Owens for 2009. The Philadelphia Eagles meanwhile draw just 4% of those polled in spite of some big preseason expectations and the signing of QB Michael Vick.

2006 Super Bowl champion Indianapolis Colts rank fifth overall at 7%. Also now ahead of the Eagles are the Minnesota Vikings (5%) the team the Birds knocked off in the first round of last year’s playoffs and who have recently added future Hall of Fame QB Brett Favre. Last season the Arizona Cardinals nearly won the Super Bowl, but a 9-7 record didn’t instill much confidence that they can climb to the summit in 2009 as just 3% of football fans like their chances to win it all. In fact 82% of Cardinals fans think their team will take the title, the most optimistic lot in all of football meaning very few outside of the Arizona fan base give this team much of a chance.

In terms of fan base confidence, the Patriots and Steelers rank second and third with percentages of 79 and 77% respectively. The Giants and Cowboys also have very optimistic fan bases as 60% of each think their team will take the title. Lastly when asked the question of who NFL fans would like to see win the Super Bowl, the Pittsburgh Steelers were tops at 12%, followed by the Patriots and Cowboys at 10%, the Giants at 8% and 6% of football fans pulling for an Eagles or Colts victory.

Survey: Current partisan trends are balanced by political extremes

Does having more self described moderates make for a more centrist America? It’s tough to tell really, but from analyzing some recent partisan trends the answer is probably “no”.

Rasmussen Reports updated their partisan trends for the recently completed month of August. In spite of a rough political month for President Obama the number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats rebounded slightly with the percentage of Republicans suffering a small drop in turn. Currently 37.3% of the country are Democrats or leaning towards the Democratic Party and 32.6% of voters are self-described Republicans.

What is more interesting is the increase in unaffiliated voters. Now at 30.2% unaffiliateds are at their highest total in over two years, although as Rasmussen points out it is not unusual to see an increase in those not affiliating with either major party in off-election years such as 2009. Still unaffiliated Americans are currently a larger block of voters than in recent years overall. Since 2004 the unaffiliated average of 28.5% is noticeably lower than the 30.2% currently being measured. This would include three even-numbered election years and a little less than three total odd or off-election years.

The large block of unaffiliated voters is reflected in the increasingly negative views many Americans hold of the two major parties. A recent Pew Research poll of over 2,000 adults nationwide finds the favorable ratings for each party falling below 50%. The Democratic Party is currently at 49% with an unfavorable rating of 41%. Worse yet for the Dems, the number of Americans holding a “very” unfavorable view of the party outnumbers those who hold a very favorable by a margin of 16-12%.

The news is even worse for the GOP. Just 7% of Pew survey responders claimed to hold a very favorable opinion of the Republican Party against 18% who were very unfavorable. In total the overall GOP approval ratings hover at just 40% with 50% viewing the party negatively.

In spite of apparent dissatisfaction with the two major parties and with a large number of unaffiliated voters most Americans remain sharply divided ideologically speaking. Although white-Caucasians make up nearly two-thirds of the U.S. population very few occupy the middle ground or moderate range of their respective parties. According to a just released Gallup survey only 6% of racially white Americans are self-described conservative Democrats, with only 11% of white’s claiming to be liberal Republicans.

Conversely both parties are still composed largely of voters from their respective political extremes. White liberal Democrats are 25% of their party’s population with conservative Caucasian Republicans making up 23% of the GOP. In terms of demographics the wealthier and more educated a Democrat is the more they tend to be ideologically liberal. The correlation of the number of liberals in the Republican Party is a bit more statistically hazy. Like Democrats more Republicans claim to have a liberal political slant as you go higher in income levels, but in terms of education considerably more college graduates are liberal (12.3%) than those who hold post-graduate degrees (9.9%). This differs from trends in the Democratic Party.

In conclusion there appears to be much stability in terms of party affiliation and political ideology in spite of the historically low approval numbers both the Democratic and Republican Party’s are currently receiving. As mentioned previously conservatives outnumber liberals by a steady margin both in Pennsylvania and nationally and Democrats meanwhile are consistently more numerous than Republicans. It’s easy to argue that this helps to create a healthy sense of balance. However the balance that persists in American politics is weighed mostly by ideological weights on the far end of either side of the political see-saw not by stable forces joining in the middle.

Americans remain both relatively equal in numbers and divided in mindset.