Poll: Public opinion remains divided on what to do in Afghanistan

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Little more than a day before President Obama’s much anticipated speech the public remains closely divided on the issue of America’s involvement in Afghanistan.

The latest poll released by USA Today/Gallup this morning indicates a modest shift in support for troop level increases from their previous poll over two weeks ago. Overall 47% of the 1,017 American adults surveyed by Gallup favor some sort of increase in troop levels. Specifically 37% favor an increase of 40,000 as recommended by General Stanley McChrystal, U.S. commander in Afghanistan, and an additional 10% of responders want an increase of under-40,000. Dropping five-points from the last poll 39% now want to see a reduction in troop levels, whereas 9% think current U.S. levels should be maintained.

The divided public places President Obama in a curious position, at least in terms of his own support on the issue of Afghanistan and foreign policy at large. Obama’s overall approval amongst Democrats remains high yet according to polling Dems are strongly against increases in troop levels. Just 29% want to see some sort of increase against 57% who favor a reduction in forces. Republicans meanwhile are solidly against Obama’s foreign policy and give him low approval marks in general of late. Yet 72% of Republicans support troop increases in Afghanistan, including nearly two-thirds (65%) that seek the requested 40,000. The key group of voters remains independents. Mirroring overall totals 46% of independents favor a troop increase. 36% specifically want 40,000 sent overseas against 37% who prefer a troop reduction and 8% wanting to keep the current number in tact.

The U.S. involvement in Afghanistan has not received the same level of criticism as Iraq in spite of the overwhelming number of Americans who rate the situation as poor. Holding relatively steady from previous polls 60% of the public feels the United States did not make a mistake by sending troops to Afghanistan after 9/11/01 against just 36% who do think it was error in judgment. This comes despite the 66% of Americans who also feel the situation abroad is going “badly” against just 32% who say it is going well.

The divided public opinion is reflected in others polls as well. Rasmussen Reports in a recent survey finds that 45% of Americans either want U.S. troops out of Afghanistan now or within a year against 43% who are opposed to any sort of timetable. Other mid-November polls track public opinion on a range of topics. The often contradictory looking responses from one poll or one question to the next illustrate the complexity of the issue in Afghanistan.

69% of adults according to a recent CBS News poll rate the situation in Afghanistan as going badly – just 23% feel it is going well. There is a more evenly divided number on the question of whether troop levels should be increased. 32% want an increase in levels, 39% a decrease and a large number (20%) would prefer our forces to remain at the same level they are currently. In spite of the plurality of those who would like to see a decrease in troop levels according to the CBS poll 36% believe the situation in Afghanistan will improve if the United States does in fact send more troops. Just 22% think such a move will make matters worse and 31% think it will have no impact.

CNN/Opinion Research mirrors the previously discussed Gallup poll with just 32% of its responders considering the situation in Afghanistan to being going well against 66% who believe it to be going poorly. A majority of the public (52%) also opposes the war in Afghanistan. The exact number of troop levels seems to be a sticking point for some. The CNN poll finds that a narrow plurality (50-49%) of responders favor an increase of 34,000 troops, but support falls to just 42% when asked whether they would favor the President sending a smaller number of troops overseas.

Lastly an ABC/Washington Post survey shows that by a 52-44% margin most adults think the war in Afghanistan has not been worth fighting when all factors are considered. There is a virtually even split (45-46%) between those who like to see a smaller or larger number of troops sent to Afghanistan in the event the President orders an increase – although no exact number is specified. 55% of Americans are at least somewhat confident President Obama can develop a strategy for success in Afghanistan although only 45% of those polled approve of his handling of the situation to this point.

By all accounts the President has difficult decisions to make regarding the situation in Afghanistan. Much of that should be revealed to the American public tomorrow night. With a large majority of Americans rating the situation in Afghanistan as poor, but at least a plurality in favor of some sort of troop increase Obama’s likely play is to announce that more American forces will join in the fight. The President does so however at the risk of alienating his own base just as any increase of smaller than 40,000 will not sit well with the majority of Republicans. The wild card here is political independents. Obama’s announcement Tuesday night will be deemed effective if he can convert a sizeable number of those skeptical or tentative to ultimately side with his plans for Afghanistan.

Poll: Half still blame Bush for bad economy

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A new survey from Rasmussen Reports finds that half the country (50%) still blames the Bush administration for the current economic problems gripping the country. President Obama who has now been in office for over ten-months receives the blame of 42% of voters with an additional eight-percent undecided between the two.

Bush left office in January of 2009 with some of the worst approval ratings ever received by a President. Although initially greeted warmly by the vast majority of Americans Bush’s successor Obama has incurred slumping popularity, particularly on the economic front.

Last month Bush led Obama by a more modest 49-45% in this poll question. While being hit with slightly less blame than the last survey released early this month there is still an increase in the numbers of fingers pointed in Obama’s direction since October. That month Rasmussen found that just 37% of American voters blamed the current President for the country’s economic woes against 55% who considered it Bush’s mishandling. Women are more critical of Bush than Obama by thirteen-percentage points whereas men are almost evenly divided between the two. Younger adults age 18-29 are more critical of the Bush administration but unaffiliated voters now blame Obama’s policies slightly more than former President Bush’s.

Focusing on other minor positives for Obama, the President is also slightly buoyed by greater confidence in his economic judgment this month. By a 57-33% margin voters still trust their own economic judgment on the issues more than the President’s but that’s an improvement from the 62-27% split Obama received in late-October.

Greater economic confidence and improving stock market have not been enough to improve the President’s sagging approval ratings of late. Rasmussen gives one of the harshest public assessments of Obama’s job performance, currently at 46%, but the average from nine major polls released since mid-November hovers at just over 50%. Public support for health care, a major piece of the Obama agenda, continues to fall just as questions over the President’s handling of the situation in Afghanistan rise.

Obama will address the nation on his Afghanistan troop strategy on Tuesday perhaps shifting attention away from the economic state of America if only for a day or two.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Tony Gutierrez

Poll: Americans spending less but giving more cheer this Thanksgiving

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Thanksgiving is nearly upon us and with so much social and political bickering from all sides it’s nice to enjoy a day or two off with family, friends and food.

Rasmussen Reports conducted some rather light polling on the topic this morning. In a positive glimpse the survey of 1,000 adults find that 53% are more thankful now than this time last year - just 11% claim to be less thankful and 35% about the same. These figures are fairly even amongst genders, those married compared to single and families with children at home or not. However a surprisingly staggering difference is between the races. 77% of African Americans claim to be more thankful for Thanksgiving 2009 than they were a year ago against just 46% of white’s who share in their increased sense of contentment.

Amongst other categories not involving family and friends the Rasmussen survey finds that 19% of adults are particularly thankful for their jobs, 15% of their country, 6% for their community and 14% for something else. The struggling economy meanwhile is affecting Americans’ shopping habits. Just 9% plan to spend more on this Thanksgiving dinner than they did a year ago with 42% spending less.

Additionally the Rasmussen survey finds that just as many adults will visit a relatives house for T-Day dinner (43%) than will be staying home or hosting (42%). Just 5% plan to have their meal over a friend’s home and 6% at a restaurant. With the exception of the jump in restaurant attendance being claimed by American adults, up from just 3% in 2008, those figures remain relatively consistent from 2008.

On the topic of food 84% plan to have or be served turkey as their main course this year. 5% say it will be ham, 7% something else and 4% are not sure. 46% also think they’ll end up eating too much against 43% who apparently figure they can pace themselves pretty well at the dinner table. Again these figures are largely consistent with other Ramussen surveys from recent years.

In addition to family, friends and turkey, one of the hallmarks of Thanksgiving is of course football. “Turkey Bowl” high school rivalries and playoff games are played out across the region as are professional contests always involving Dallas, Detroit and in more recent years a third evening contest. In Philadelphia last year the Eagles took part in one of these evening games blowing out the Arizona Cardinals 48-20 in what proved to be a poor forecast of the NFC Championship Game involving both teams.

According to an unscientific poll from

www.philly.com responders claimed to enjoy the Thanksgiving NFL games over local high school playoff contests by better than a two-to-one ratio. In South Jersey 53% of website visitors also claimed that the high school playoff games detract from the more standard rivalry contests.

Lastly I came across an interesting little poll conducted by Fox News six years ago. With many Americans at the time speculating the Democratic candidate for the 2004 election could be Senator Hillary Clinton Fox asked 900 registered voters who would they rather have Thanksgiving dinner with; her or sitting President George W. Bush. By a 45-35% margin it was President Bush who came out on top. Just perhaps we could view this as a notable precursor to his success the following fall when the likeability factor played a major role in Bush’s reelection over Democratic rival John Kerry.

Enjoy a safe and happy Thanksgiving!

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / ALEX BRANDON

Poll: Support for health care plan plummets, Democrats push ahead

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The big discussion in Washington begins just as the American public is voicing its strongest opposition to date.

A day after the Senate begins debate on health care legislation a new survey from Rasmussen Reports shows the highest level of opposition yet recorded. In a staggering reversal from last week the poll suggests just 38% of American voters now favor the Democratic health care plan against 56% who are opposed. The previous poll taken on November 13-14 showed support had grown to its highest level since mid-September with 47% of voters in favor against 49% in opposition.

This past weekend Senate Democrats narrowly obtained the sixty vote supermajority needed to commence with talks free from the threat of Republican filibuster tactics. As reported on by Time Magazine’s Karen Tumulty in an article from this morning, the Republicans are stepping up their efforts to derail the Democratic plan.

The minority intends to launch a series of surgical strikes on key parts of the bill, and to raise questions about whether it all adds up to what the Democrats are claiming…What they [Republicans] are counting on now, and what they are hoping to inflame, is public doubt. – Karen Tumulty / Time

The latest Rasmussen poll that also showed support for the plan at 45% earlier this month may come as sobering news to the Democratic Party’s aspirations of passing legislation before the end of the year. Those “strongly” in favor of the plan are outnumbered by those strongly against by better than a two to one ratio (21-43%). Also according to Rasmussen just 16% of voters believe health care costs will go down with the passage of this current plan against 60% who think they will go up. Nearly three-quarters of Democrats (73%) favor the plan but 83% of Republicans are against it, as are seven in ten non-affiliated voters. Democrats consider health care reform the top priority for President Obama while Republicans and unafilliateds side with debt reduction as being his most important job.

Fox News is also on the beat and reporting on survey results that are even harsher than those put forth by Rasmussen. The Fox poll shows support for the plan stuck at 35%, its average from the past four months. As Americans become more educated on the reform proposals of Congress the opposition continues to increase, standing now at 51%. The high level of opposition being tracked in recent polls is not at the expense of the numbers of those seeking significant changes to our health care system. Quinnipiac in a recent survey shows that 61% of the American public is eager for reform even as it opposes the current Democratic plan on the table.

Gallup just released a poll focusing its attention on the full list of health problems being cited by the American public. Access to health care again leads the list with nearly a third of poll responders (32%) considering it to be their top concern. While that figure has remained fairly steady from last year the emergence of the H1N1 “swine flu” pandemic has entered the new list at 16%. Obesity and cancer have registered declines but its concern over the cost of health care, down seven-points to 18%, that marks the most notable drop from November of 2008.

President Obama who had until recently maintained the majority of approval from Americans has cratered below 50% in several polls. It is specifically his lack of popularity on the issue of health care that has inflicted the most damage to his credibility with the public. The previously mentioned new poll from Qunnipiac University pegs the President’s approval on health care at a 41-53% positive to negative margin. Just 19% think that Obama can ram home the health care plan while keeping his promise not to add to the federal deficit - 72% disagree.

In spite of concern and negativity surrounding the issue Senate Democrats are well aware that the greatest challenge is not with the Republicans or even the current mindset of the American public. Top priority for majority leader Harry Reid is to keep his own party in line. The big four Senators who tentatively voted with Reid on Saturday but could sink the plan are centrist’s; Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana and notable independent Joe Lieberman of Connecticut. Not only are three of the four Senators from heavily Republican-leaning states Lieberman is viewed at best as a wavering Democrat, troubled by economic concerns and a government run plan allowing for public option.

These four votes could be the key for Democrats in their plan for a victory on health care reform. Winning over the hearts and minds of the American public however represents another task altogether.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / ALEX BRANDON

Analysis: Obama's approval rating, who has it right?

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Fox News made some waves this morning when it released the results of a survey showing President Obama’s approval rating had dropped to a new low.

According to their polling Obama has cratered well below the 50% threshold, standing now at an even 46-46% approval to disapproval margin. That represents a drop from the 50-41% rating split the President received from the previous Fox poll released three weeks ago. Most polls are subject to some varying form of discrepancy and error. Efficient polling is not an easy task to undertake. Yet with a media and public perception so driven by the effects of numbers it is important to get an understanding of how those numbers are being gathered.

One big thing stands out about the Fox News poll when measuring the validity of these most recent figures is the sudden and dramatic drop of support from independents. While it’s typical for political independents to sway more rapidly in their level of support than the more locked in Democrat and Republican blocks Fox shows a highly volatile group of voters.

In August President Obama’s approval rating among independents stood at a 49-44% approval to disapproval margin. Two polls conducted in September showed his totals ranging from 51-42% to 46-41%. Then Obama cratered in early-October, down to a 42-47% split only to rebound considerably late in the month to 49-34%. Suddenly the President’s numbers have plummeted again, down a startling sixteen-points to his current 34-51% standing in just three weeks. What gives here?

Considering that the approval ratings given from Democrats and Republicans in the poll have remained almost identical from late-October could we expect another jump in independent support for Obama next month? If so it’s very likely the President will go back over the 50% threshold, but is this all a true reflection of what the electorate thinks of the President's job performance?

While having little impact on the results from this poll Fox is also somewhat notorious for gathering a higher percentage of Republican voters and a far lower percentage of self-describe independents than what are generally agreed upon to be their national totals. Although the poll was conducted from 900-registered voters the fairly high +/- 6% margin of error between political groupings brings that total down to 844-responders. 40.5% claimed to affiliate as Democrats, 38.4% Republicans and 21.1% independents. However Rasmussen Reports who studies partisan trends each month and works in affiliation with Fox concludes the current party balance is 37.8% Democrat, 31.9% Republican and 30.3% independent.

Fox’s low score for President Obama is balanced against the opposite extreme by a recent survey from ABC News/Washington Post. Showing remarkable consistency over the past three months the President’s approval rating in this poll stands at 56% with a disapproval of 42%. Sadly unlike Fox the ABC poll does not offer us any data on how each political group responded to their questions. That the ABC poll also uses random sampling and pulls their data from 1,001 “adults” instead of “registered” or “likely voters gives is some insight as to why there is such a large ten-point gap between the two aforementioned polls.

The tendency is for a higher percentage of Republicans to vote and be registered to do so. This means a sampling of all adults would favor President Obama and Democrats in general as those who are not voters or enlisted with any party tend to lean to the left. Furthermore the party balance recorded in this poll sends up something of a red flag; 35% Democrat, 21% Republican, 39% independent. Even after leaners are taken into consideration the totals are still 54% Democrat, 38% Republican and 47% independent. The sixteen-point gap between Democrats and Republicans and the nine-point lead independents hold over the GOP are both in all likelihood greatly exaggerated.

Interestingly if we chose to apply the data collected from the Fox News survey on the preference of each political party to this ABC poll the President’s approval rating would only come in at 46%, an identical total between polls. Still the skew in numbers towards those affiliated with the Democratic Party undoubtedly plays a major role in these positive totals for Obama.

So where does the truth lie? As in most cases probably somewhere in the middle. The average of eight major polls, including Fox and ABC, taken this month calculates President Obama’s approval rating at just over 51%. This total is exactly half-way between the 46% recorded by Fox News and the 56% gathered from ABC News/Washington Post.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Pablo Martinez Monsivais

Analysis: Can Sarah Palin win the Republican nomination? What is she up against

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Speculation continues to circulate as to whether Sarah Palin will officially make a bid for the White House in 2012.

Never straying far from the media vista Palin has once again been plastered on the front pages and no doubt received heavy discussion around water coolers this week. Her recently released autobiography is a bestseller, she has made a number of high profile interviews and even found controversy along way – this time slamming Newsweek as “sexist” and “out of context” for her portrayal on a recent cover of the magazine.

Yet it’s the subject matter from publications such as Newsweek openly declaring, as their headlines suggests, (“How Do You Solve a Problem Like Sarah Palin: She’s bad news for the GOP – and for everybody else, too.”) that brings to light the important questions. Often on the campaign trail last year Republican Presidential nominee John McCain accused then Senator Barack Obama of being more of a national celebrity than political statesman. If however Obama was to be the celebrity du jour than Palin has become a genuine pop-star. She holds court over legions of adoring fans but receives the scorn of just as many. Overcoming both political obstacles and public perception is a treacherous road traveled but Palin needs to sustain her level of popularity while proving her substance to a sizable block of skeptics. Let the numbers speak.

Recent polls have indicated that Sarah Palin has fallen to a distant third in Republican preference for their party’s nominee in 2012. That said a recent Rasmussen survey indicates a considerable number of GOP voters are still on board with Sarah as the 59-21% margin of those who feel she shares their values against those who do not would attest. This comes at a time when just 18% of Republicans believe their GOP representatives in Congress have done a good job representing their base. Being a relative newcomer to the scene and not tarnished as a current member of the House or Senate Palin perhaps has an opportunity to succeed as the non-establishment candidate even after being tapped as John McCain’s running mate just last year.

While much has been made of Palin’s role and whether she is a good thing for the Republican Party just 18% of those in GOP camp consider her a divisive force, and only 26% of voters overall share in that opinion. On the negative side Rasmussen also concludes that just 21% of Americans have a very favorable opinion against 29% who hold a very negative view of Sarah Palin. These figures mirror the results of other national polls showing that in spite of her popularity Sarah’s standing with the public is troublesome for a presumptive Presidential candidate.

A recent CBS News poll finds that just 23% of adults hold a favorable view of the former Alaskan Governor against 38% who do not. Of equal concern these figures are virtually identical to the last CBS poll taken on Palin from early-July. Additionally just 24% of Americans claim they would like to see Sarah Palin run for President in three years and only 26% think she can be effective in office if elected.

Less harsh but still clearly mired in the negatives are the results from an ABC/Washington Post survey. In this poll 43% of adults view Sarah Palin favorably against 52% who hold a negative view. This is actually a slight rebound for Palin from their last poll in mid-July but a huge decline in her favorable numbers from the early-fall of 2008. 46% of poll responders claim they would at least consider voting "Palin for President" in 2012 but only 9% of that block suggests they would “definitely” vote for her against 53% who definitely would not. Furthermore Sarah is seen as being qualified for the position of President by just 38% of adults nationwide according to this ABC poll.

Still there are many reasons why Sarah Palin should be considering capable of making a successful run for the White House, or at least why she should not be counted out.

Nate Silver of www.fivethirtyeight.com gives a list of ten specific reasons (read his full comments here) to believe in Sarah's chances of success. Included are the following; Palin creates a level of enthusiasm among supporters that no other GOP hopeful currently has and this could be particularly helpful for her in the primaries. The likely prospects that the Republican Party will rebound in the 2010 midterms creates a more favorable political base for Palin than what currently exists. The other candidates are flawed according to Silver’s assessment of the current GOP field, and there is of course the chance that one or more of the top candidates might not run for President. Palin’s love/hate relationship with the media is good for ratings and circulation and at least in the primaries that same media will be rooting for her.

Palin has also created a rather defensive position that can work in her favor against other candidates. She is tough to campaign against and any slight or criticism that strays from the political realm will have her supporters rallying around her. Silver also contends that attempts by the Republican establishment to neuter her may backfire again playing into the victimization complex held by Palin and her faithful. The fact that there are virtually no moderates left in the Republican base probably works in Palin’s favor as well, as most voters that hold negatives views of her are either found in the Democratic Party, are political independents or make up the small percentage of liberal Republicans. The aforementioned either will not be eligible to vote in the Republican primaries or not number enough to keep her from competing in the early rounds.

The idea that parties tend to nominate more extreme candidates in elections against incumbents is good for Palin if true. It creates a healthy and visible difference between the candidate and who they would be running against from the incumbent party, in this case President Obama in all likelihood. The concept of striking differences and a battle for the soul of American politics (ex: Republican vs. Democrat, Conservative vs. Liberal, Outsider vs. Establishment, Democracy vs. Socialism, Woman vs. Man, etc) is a tasty proposition for a party with bruised confidence. That said the more radical candidates generally do not fair well in these match ups. Barry Goldwater, George McGovern, Walter Mondale all lost in landslide elections whereas the more status quo options for either party (Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton) were quite successful.

The splintered Republican base ultimately creates an opportunity for a candidate such as Sarah Palin where in other elections and eras she may not be perceived as a contender. That she gets the new media, and the new media gets her is an important consideration as Palin looks to “overcome what I expect will prove to be a relatively shoddy traditional infrastructure” Silver concludes.

PHOTO CREDIT: NEWSWEEK (FILE PHOTO)

Pollsters, the other big winners from Election Day 2008

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With a predictable lag in high profile polling just a couple of weeks past this year’s elections we have a chance to take a look back.

Back all the way to 2008 that is. Not an assessment of the Obama victory, the strong Democratic showing in down ticket races or a look ahead. Instead a peak at the individual polling organizations and their collective scorecard from last year’s Presidential election as we look ahead to 2010.

For those who dismiss the value and accuracy of good polling this also serves as a healthy reminder. The efforts of the majority of polling organizations are laudable considering the often difficult task at hand. In 2008 for intance then Senator Obama with 52.9% of the popular vote defeated John McCain’s total of 45.6% in the general election and by a margin of 7.3%. In the Electoral College President Obama’s margin was 365-173.

Now take a look at this list of major national surveys conducted in the days before the Presidential election last November. Posted below are the results, eighteen in total, from final polling on the question of who will become the nation’s next Commander In Chief. Taking the average from these eighteen worked out to a virtually perfect score. Barack Obama defeated John McCain by 7.3-percentage points in both the polling averages and the actual result from Election Day 2008. The list of individuals is ranked by furthest from the eventual total to most accurate.

2-points;

Battleground (Tarrance Group): Obama 50-48%

Notes: Two “Battleground” polls had different popular vote assessments, the Lake Research Partners ultimately winding up more accurate than the Tarrance Group. Not a single polling organization predicted a McCain victory last Election Day but at just a 2% spread the Battleground Tarrance Group noticeably underestimated President Obama’s eventual performance in 2008.

11-points;

Gallup: Obama 55-44%
Reuters/Zogby: Obama 54-43%

Notes: Interesting to see such well respected organizations as Gallup and Reuters/Zogby actually winding up near the bottom of our list of most accurate pollsters. Perhaps this sheds light on the difficulty of polling on any question large or small, state to state or nationally. Even with their overestimation of Obama’s success Gallup was still within four-percentage points of the actual result. Furthermore the Reuters/Zogby poll was particularly strong in their state by state Elecotral College predictions. Only three states did they have the result wrong; Flipping Florida and North Carolina from “blue” to “red” as well as Indiana which Senator McCain won by just a single percentage point.

5-points;

Battleground (Lake Research Partners): Obama 52-47%
Diageo/Hotline: Obama 50-45%

Notes: Drawing within the margin of error of most national polls final totals from Diageo/Hotline and our second of two Battleground contributors gets closer to the actual result. Diageo had a relatively high 5% of its poll responders claiming to either be undecided or voting for third-party/independent candidates heading into Election Day 2008. The Lake Research Partners made a strong showing figuring Obama’s total within a point of his actual result and overestimating McCain’s by less than a point and a half.

9-points;

Marist: Obama 52-43%
CBS News: Obama 51-42%
ABC/Washington Post: Obama 53-44%

Notes: The top result from the three final surveys above was just 1.2% from the actual result. The ABC/Washington Post poll deserves the most credit of the three figuring Obama’s popular vote total accurately and coming closest to predicting McCain’s. There is an interesting mix of large versus small pools of responders. All three use “likely voter” models but the ABC poll of 2,470 was far larger and likely more rigorous than the smallest conducted (CBS) of 714. The Marist survey also had a relatively small sample of just 804 likely voters yet in spite of being less than a third the size both CBS and Marist's eventual figures were virtually identical to ABC’s.

6-points;

Rasmussen Reports: Obama 52-46%
Pew Research: Obama 52-46%
FiveThirtyEight.com: Obama 52.8 - 46.7%

Notes: Three of the most reliable sources in the world of polling made strong showings in last year’s election all predicting a 52-46% Obama victory. It’s the Electoral College results from Rasmussen and 538 that are most interesting however. Nate Silver’s 538 website popular vote total of 52.8% for Barack Obama was nearly perfect to the 52.9% he captured on Election Day. Silver was a little generous to John McCain (46.7%) making for a margin of 6.1% while commenting that election frontrunners tend to under perform their polling numbers slightly. Silver also predicted a 342-196 Obama victory in the Electoral College, failing to accurately call only the two closest states of Indiana and Missouri for Obama and the narrowly decided Nebraska 2nd District in his favor. Rasmussen meanwhile was similarly accurate to the tune of 312-195 Obama lead heading into Election Day and 31-electoral votes from two states (Ohio, Missouri) polling dead-even. Ultimately Rasmussen failed to call Florida and the narrowly won North Carolina and Indiana for Obama while Ohio and Missouri split for Obama and McCain respectively.

8-points;

American Research Group: Obama 53-45%
NBC/Wall Street Journal: Obama 51-43%

Notes: Two other big winners from Election Night 2008 were ARG and NBC nailing the popular vote margin in favor of then Senator Obama by less than a single percentage point. ARG correctly predicted Obama’s popular vote total at 53% when rounded to the closest whole number and was just over a half a point off on Senator McCain’s final tally. The NBC/Wall Street Journal survey was a tad more conservative in their allocation of votes to either major candidate. The 51-43% Obama lead means that a fairly high 6% of poll responders claimed to be either undecided or were planning on casting their vote for another candidate. Still the nearly accurate margin of eight-points recorded by the NBC poll is laudable.

7-points;

IBD/TIPP: Obama 51.5 – 44.3%
Fox News: Obama 50-43%
Ipsos/McClatchy: 53-46%
CNN/Opinion Research: 53-46%
Democracy Corps: 51-44%

Notes: No fewer did five major pollsters featured in this article essentially nail the outcome of last year’s election. The weakest of the five albeit still rather impressive is Fox News whose 50-43% result left a high number of undecided voters or those uncommitted to either major party candidate. Democracy Corps a Democratic polling organization also scored big with an impressive assessment of the eventual outcome. The Gold medalists from that evening just over a year ago however have to be CNN, Ipsos/McClatchy and Investors Business Daily. Ipsos essentially nailed the correct popular vote margin 53-46% in spite of their modest sample size of just 760 likely voters. CNN was equally effective with an even smaller (714) pool of responders interviewed. CNN also tracked results state by state concluding with confidence that Barack Obama had a 291-157 lead in the Electoral College with 90-votes left undecided heading into Election Day. Lastly the IBD/TIPP poll wins a special award for being within one-tenth of a point to the actual result. Obama’s 7.2% lead in that poll was strikingly similar to his eventual 7.27% margin of victory.