Poll: Americans high on Washington, Lincoln & love, but down on Presidents' Day & Valentine's Day

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Today is Presidents’ Day. The federal holiday was implemented by the United States Congress in 1880 honoring the similarly dated birthdays of two of America’s greatest President’s and statesmen.

Although the vast majority of Americans remain high on the legacy of George Washington and Abraham Lincoln few rank the holiday that celebrates their birth and life each year as being among the most important. Rasmussen Reports shows that just 14% think President’s Day is one of the nation’s most important holidays. A third (33%) believe it to be one of the least important with nearly half (49%) suggesting it falls somewhere in between. Only nine-percent of Americans plan to celebrate Presidents’ Day in some fashion which probably corresponds to the fact that only a third of adults (33%) claim to be off from work today.

Over 210-years since the death of Washington and 145 removed from the Lincoln assassination Americans continue to hold George and Abe in the highest regard. 93% of American adults have a favorable view of Abraham Lincoln with 63% claiming a “very” favorable opinion. The numbers for Washington are only slightly less impressive with a favorability of 89% and a very favorable at 54%.

When asked the question of which U.S. President is most influential in terms of their impact on the nation’s history Lincoln and Washington again finish one and two respectively. The 16th President draws 30% support from the Rasmussen poll sample and America’s greatest Founding Father ranks second at 21%. 20th Century President’s Ronald Reagan (17%) and Franklin Roosevelt (16%) are next on the list followed by the country’s third Commander in Chief, Thomas Jefferson with ten-percent support.

Male responders rank Washington slightly higher with women more supportive of Lincoln. Perhaps interestingly Lincoln only ranks second among polled Republicans, behind Washington and barely ahead of Reagan, in spite of his reputation as being the greatest member of his party. Democrats rank Lincoln first, Roosevelt second and Washington at a distant third. Unaffiliated adults meanwhile also side with Lincoln, followed by Reagan and then Washington.

Washington remains the country’s greatest Founding Father in the view of a majority (53%) of Americans. Around half of that total (27%) honors Thomas Jefferson, the principal author of the Declaration of Independence, with that distinction. John Adams (7%) and James Madison (3%), the primary author of the U.S. Constitution, are a distant third and fourth in the poll. In a showdown between which President had the more lasting impact on U.S history Lincoln defeats Washington handedly 64-25%.

Moving from our greatest Presidents to the topic of Valentine’s Day Rasmussen finds Americans have a love-hate relationship with the holiday. Established by Pope Gelasius I in AD 496 the holiday was named after Christian martyrs Valentine of Rome and Valentine of Terni. The modern practice of card giving began around the middle 19th century in the U.S and U.K.

According to Rasmussen 36% of adults look forward to Valentine’s Day, 20% dread the holiday and a 43% plurality are indifferent. Ranking with St. Patrick’s Day near the bottom of the list 51% of Americans consider Valentine’s Day one of the nation’s least important holidays, with just five-percent of the opinion that it’s one of the most important. Somewhat oddly men look forward to V-Day more than women and single adults think the holiday is more important than those who are married.

67% prefer to spend the day having dinner with someone “special”. In the event that the meal will be at a restaurant it appears that men will more often than not be picking up the check. The U.S. Greeting Card Association estimates that men spend twice the amount on average that women do for Valentine’s Day. The same organization also suggests that over one-billion Valentine’s cards are sent each year worldwide ranking the holiday second behind only Christmas.

PHOTO CREDITS: ASSOCIATED PRESS / CRAIG HARMON / HADI MIZBAN

Analysis: In wake of sagging poll numbers can Sarah Palin still be GOP's nominee for 2012?

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Buried in the middle of lengthy new poll from ABC News / Washington Post are the latest findings on how the American public feels about one Sarah Palin. Fresh off her highly publicized and somewhat maligned keynote address at the Tea Party convention last week Sarah has herself another dose of bad news.

Just 37% of American adults have a favorable impression of Palin. 55% view her unfavorably. That is the lowest level of support and highest level of opposition yet recorded. Perhaps most damaging of all is a twelve-point drop in the number of Americans who believe the former Vice Presidential candidate is “qualified to serve as President.” Just over a quarter (26%) now thinks a Palin Administration can execute the duties of the White House competently. Better than seven in ten (71%) disagree.

That the new ABC / Post release is a random survey of just over a thousand U.S. adults and not a more targeted sample of registered or likely votes, who more often vote Republican, should offer little consolation to Palin and her supporters. Regardless of who is polling in the fifteen months since the election of 2008 the former Alaskan Governor has not approached the levels of enthusiasm she obtained in the months leading up to her and John McCain’s defeat that November.

Name recognition continues to be the political battering ram for Palin. Next to President Obama she is quite possibly the most identifiable current figure in American politics. In spite of her sluggish appeal from adults across the board and from all political affiliations her support within the GOP has deteriorated little. Gallup ranked her second behind Mitt Romney as the candidate Republicans would most like to see as their party’s nominee for 2012. Earlier today the same question was asked and again Sarah came in second place with the support of 11% of the GOP. Romney leads with 14%, John McCain is third drawing support from 7%, Mike Huckabee has faded to just 3% meanwhile and a large block of Republicans (42%) prefer a different candidate than the eleven listed from that poll.

Down but far from out Palin continues to hold on to a solid majority of support from her own party and 37% of Republicans still hold a “strongly favorably” view her. However only 45% of conservatives according to the ABC / Post survey consider Palin qualified for the Presidency. That’s a sharp drop from the nearly two-thirds (66%) who believed she was just a few months ago.

The Republican focus is perhaps sharply divided as well. Seeking to defeat President Obama, who is largely unpopular with GOP voters even by the normal standards of a critical opposition party, many within Republican ranks believe they’ll need to put their best foot forward in 2012. This could mean supporting a candidate that is more likely to win in the general election but who doesn’t necessarily appeal to all corners of the base rather than risking losing with a candidate who is a party favorite but can’t generate independent or moderate Democratic support. Of course it could also be argued that this sort of populist strategy backfired in the most recent election of 2008 when moderate John McCain lost handedly to Barack Obama.

Speaking again of Sarah’s chances Nate Silver from Fivethirtyeight.com recently assessed the possibilities for Palin to make it through the Republican primary in 2012.

Silver weighs several variables that will likely affect the outcome of the primary season two-years from now and places them in groupings. Fundraising for example could be a particularly effective tool for Sarah Palin in relation to her Republican counterparts. Her overall reach may be more limited than a Romney or Huckabee but her followers are more devoted, particularly in the western United States and in her home state of Alaska.

State by state variables from 2008 exit polls help reveal the nature of the electorate and what types of voters supported the McCain/Palin ticket that year, not just how many of them did. Palin seems to do best among those voters without college degrees and in states where there are a higher number of self described conservatives. The specific batch of conservatives that Palin runs strongest with are white Evangelical voters. Mike Huckabee however is also widely popular within that group and could outflank Palin in states with large Evangelical populations. Lastly Silver defines Palin’s best topic in attracting votes as through energy and terrorism policy. Sarah as explained by Silver requires less policy nuance in gaining traction with two of the more general topics that should be core issues in her still undetermined Presidential campaign.

Sarah’s strength is typically in western states and the Deep South. Fitting the bill Silver rates her twelve best states in order as being; Alaska, Wyoming, Mississippi, North Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, Alabama, Kentucky, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Oregon and Idaho. Conversely her weakest regions are the southwest and northeast and in states such as; Massachusetts, New Jersey, Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, New York, Illinois, Utah, Delaware, Michigan, California and Pennsylvania.

The key early states in the primary, often responsible engineering critical momentum for a campaign, are Iowa, South Carolina, Nevada and New Hampshire. On average the four states rank around the middle of the pack for Sarah Palin in regards to her electoral strengths and weaknesses. Iowa and South Carolina in particular give her a good opportunity for victory whereas New Hampshire and Nevada are somewhat less likely.

Of course who else is running and in what specific order states will be voting could play a key role in determining what is expected to be a hotly contested Republican primary for 2012. Palin could do fairly well in what Silver describes are “second wave” voting states that play to her strengths in regions like the northwest and Deep South. Surviving through the early rounds should also build momentum that could carry her through certain states where she is less popular. However the exact order of those states is yet to be determined. Palin also could lose to Huckabee early on in Iowa, a state the former Arkansas Governor won in 2008, instantly undercutting her upward trajectory. She could also get hammered on the issues from political pros like Mitt Romney or simply lose to Huckabee or a wild-card candidate like Pennsylvania’s Rick Santorum with values voters in a war of attrition.

Ultimately Silver sees three different winnable scenarios for Sarah Palin in 2012.

1) She wins Iowa, South Carolina and a handful of “second wave” states primarily in the northwest. By doing so her momentum, barring any possible missteps, ought to be sufficient to defeat whoever is left standing in a narrowing field of Republican candidates.

2) This is the most complicated of scenarios. Palin needs to finish a strong second in Iowa presumably to Huckabee or a popular midwestern candidate. She then needs to pull out a win in South Carolina and power her way through to several victories in the aforementioned “second wave” states. She then wins some other large and important Republican stronghold in the south and rust belt region such as Texas, Florida or Georgia, Indiana or North Carolina, Ohio or Wisconsin.

3) Sarah takes Iowa as outlined in the first scenario and runs a strong second in South Carolina losing to someone other than Romney or another out of region candidate. Once again her best chance in “second wave” states that would come next would be to win big and regain momentum. Then the luck of the draw comes into play. Palin could be helped if the region that consists or the lower-Midwest, Deep South, Pacific Northwest, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Maryland votes next and she secures important victories in a handful of those states, most notably Texas. If the group that includes to rust belt, New York, Georgia and Florida votes next she’ll need to bet all of her chips on battleground states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio. If neither if those regions are the next to vote Sarah could be in serious trouble.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Ed Reinke

Poll: Mayor Nutter's approval rating at 53%, but Philadelphians are racially divided on the topic

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A new public opinion poll finds Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter surviving through a tough economic year to score a majority of approval from the city’s residents.

The poll commissioned by the Pew Charitable Trusts’ Philadelphia Research Initiative (PRI) surveyed 1,602 Philadelphians and pegs the Mayor’s approval rating at 53% with just 32% disapproving of his job performance. Nutter’s current rating comes halfway through his four-year term as city mayor and is an improvement from the 47-39% approval to disapproval margin he received in April of last year. Additionally twice as many city residents have a favorable (60%) than negative (30%) impression of Nutter.

However PRI also finds a racial divide in the city on the topic of Mayor Nutter. While 65% of Philadelphia’s white residents approve of the job he is doing, only 43% of the black citizenry agrees. Hispanics approve of the mayor by a margin of 55-24%. According to Census Bureau estimates for 2008 black residents (43.2%) outnumber whites (41%) in Philadelphia. The Hispanic/Latino population of any race meanwhile numbers 11.5%. Also according to revised census figures the city has experienced its first population growth since 1950 and could be as high as 1,562,461 residents as of 2009.

College graduates (62%), elders over the age of 65 (65%) and those with higher incomes (62%) are most likely to approve of Mayor Nutter’s job performance. By neighborhood Nutter is strongest where the white population is most dominant, including Northeast Philadelphia where 59% give him high marks. Not surprisingly he struggles more in traditionally black neighborhoods like those found in North Philly (42%).

“Obviously, I’m pleased with the direction, but more
pleased that the public is demonstrating an understanding of what kind of
challenges we’re facing.” – Mayor Nutter / Philadelphia Daily News

The prolonged budget crisis is the top concern for Nutter in dealing with the perceptions of voters. Nearly as many (46%) lack confidence in his ability to handle budget concerns as those who are confident (47%). On his decision to hike the city sales tax by one-percentage point Nutter receives the approval of 47% of Philadelphians but an additional 49% are against the increase. Nutter’s overall budget cuts have, fortunately for him, not been problematic for most city residents with 62% claiming to have witnessed no change in the quality of services.

Nutter defeated Republican Al Taubenberger in November of 2007 securing over 83% of the vote in Philadelphia to succeed John Street as city mayor. 83% was also the popular vote won by Barack Obama in the 2008 Presidential Election, a record for a Democrat in Philadelphia. Currently over 78% of the city is registered Democrat and a Republican has not served as mayor since the end of Bernard Samuel’s record length term expired in 1952.

Just as they were according to the last PRI survey from a year ago Philadelphians are almost evenly split on the topic of taxes and city services. 41% would prefer to see more services at the expensive of higher taxes while 43% favor the tradeoff of lower taxes and fewer city services. Table gambling is also a topic of interest with Philadelphia’s first slots parlor due to open its doors on the Delaware River waterfront in Fishtown and a second location proposal currently in the works. 54% of city residents favor table gambling legislation in their city against just 32% opposed and another 14% remaining uncertain.

Half samples were used when asking Philadelphians about specific features and services within their city. 58% of responders give good or excellent grades to the quality of library services in their area but only 28% said the same about programs for teenagers and the quality of street repair and maintenance – the latter issue a much talked about concern through what has been a particularly rough winter season.

By a 45-32% margin a plurality of polled residents approve of senior citizen programs and facilities. With Police Commissioner Charles Ramsey winning the approval of nearly seven in ten Philadelphians (69%), more consider the city’s overall police protection to be good or excellent (52%) than fair or poor (45%). An additional 59% like the general appearance of their neighborhood but an even number give low and high marks (48%) regarding park, playgrounds and recreational facilities. Better than two-thirds of the city (68%) approves of their trash collection and 58% rate the availability of health care services as good or excellent.

In spite of constant internal struggles within SEPTA 65% of Philadelphians think the city’s public transportation system is running efficiently as a whole. Fire protection, lastly, is the most approved of service in the city with 78% of residents giving it high marks.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / Charles Dharapak

Analysis: Shrinking Obama job approval in some states makes for tougher path to reelection

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It seems a little early to be talking about the 2012 Presidential election but certain political trends that have been witnessed over the past year point to the possibility of a shakeup already in the works. The third entry in Gallup’s “State of the States” series for 2009 takes a look at President Obama’s job approval from across the country.

The released data shows a cumulative rating of 57.6% for Obama during his first calendar year in office. That is considerably higher than the President’s average approval rating over the past several months from Gallup that indicates support of around half the country. At present Gallup pegs Obama’s job approval at 51% with 41% disapproving. This is also notably higher than other February polls released from the likes of Rasmussen Reports, Fox News and Marist that show the President scoring on average a less than desirable 45-46% rating.

None the less the recent study is a helpful way to track where the President is most and least popular at a state by state level. Since the approval for a President does not rise and fall evenly between states with the changing political landscape it’s generally not a good idea to speculate what Obama’s current job approval ratings are at a state level. If we average the President’s approval rating over the past several weeks as being 50%, at least according to Gallup polling, than compare that to his 57.6% average from 2009 we are left with around a 12.5% drop in appeal.

For hypothetical purposes only we can then apply that 12.5% decline to each state and perhaps get a better read on the current levels of approval for President Obama across the electorate. The table below shows Obama’s approval rating in each state for 2009, our adjusted ratings for 2010, his popular vote margin from 2008 and the difference between that election and his current figures.

The above data points to the possibility that most of President Obama’s losses of late have been in solidly “blue” states from 2008. This should comfort supporters knowing that many of the built-in electoral advantages from that election appear to be safely in tact. On the flip side however the vast majority of post-election gains for the President appear to be in states where his approval rating is already low and where he was not competitive in 2008. In between we have several states that, if they follow current trends, could be in play for 2012 where they were viewed as solid or likely wins for Obama shortly after his resounding victory in 2008.

For classification purposes lets place every state where President Obama currently has an approval rating exceeding 58% in the “safe” column. Those where his job approval is less than 58% but greater than 53% are “likely” for the President. States where Obama registers below 47% but greater than 42% would be “unlikely” victories in 2012, states where he is below 42% are solid “red” for whoever his Republican opponent turns out to be. Then we have the gray area where Obama’s current approval rating rests above 47% but below 53% for a category we’ll classify as “battleground” states.

Obama won comfortably in eleven states (CT, MA, NY, RI, IL, CA, VT, DE, HI, MD, DC) including the District of Columbia in 2008. Those states accumulated 153-electoral votes for the President, well more than half the 270 needed for victory. Currently the President’s approval rating has dropped below the 58% threshold in his home state of Illinois, California, Delaware and Maryland. Without those four his “safe” electoral total would plummet to a mere 64-votes, this before new census data to be released later this year will reshape things further.

The picture is similarly disturbing for the President when discussing those states that fall in the category of likely victories in 2012 when compared to his success in 2008. Against Senator John McCain then Senator Barack Obama had twelve state wins by comfortable margins of 53-58%. Although the electoral clout (110) from 2008 isn’t much different than it is now (104), Obama has just five states (MN, NJ, IL, CA, DE) he can categorize as likely to stay blue in 2012. Overall Obama won 23-states containing 263-electoral votes by more than 53% in his election victory of less than a year and a half ago. Based solely off his current approval rating that present total is just twelve-states and 168-votes strong.

Lastly we take a look at the “battleground” or “swing” states that have played a crucial role in deciding the first two elections of the past decade and may do so again in 2012. Obama had only six states (MO, FL, NC, IN, VA, MT) where he pulled in between 47-53% of the popular vote in 2008. Now in 2010 based off his currently job approval there are a whopping 29-states that fit that description. Battleground states made up just eighty-electoral votes in the last election but as of right now they are on pace to contain 227.

The President can perhaps take solace in the fact that he managed to win 23 of those 29 states currently classified as part of the electoral battleground. However nine of those states and 81-electoral votes have moved from likely Obama victories to battleground states over the course of the fifteen months since Election 2008. On the other hand of the six battleground states Obama lost in 2008 only Missouri and possibly Georgia offer him a realistic shot at victory in 2012. The President would need to win every state he is currently polling strongly in and around 45% of the many battleground states where his approval ratings average out to around 50%. While it would be silly to consider those long odds the current electoral landscape does present a significantly greater challenge to President Obama now and perhaps as far off as November, 2012 than it did for 2008.

It is of course very early to be analyzing an electoral map scenario for 2012 especially without knowing who the President’s opponent is likely to be at that point in time. Still much of the information gathered is valuable in assessing current trends that could ultimately affect the political landscape in the coming years.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / SUSAN WALSH

Poll: Most pick the Colts to win but are rooting for the Saints in Super Bowl XLIV

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Gearing up for Super Bowl XLIV this Sunday, ESPN’s “Sports Nation” program decided to poll the country on a number of topics regarding the big game.

While these polls are unscientific by nature the impressive sample sizes and state by state breakdowns make for both insightful and entertaining viewing. Below are four of the more interesting questions and the responses from the many thousands of ESPN website voters.

Which team will win Super Bowl XLIV?

Indianapolis Colts: 58%
New Orleans Saints: 42%

Notes: As of 10:30 Friday morning over 318,000 folks nationwide voted on this the biggest of questions from Super Bowl XLIV. The Colts were the clear majority winner and that percentage dropped by just a single-point since news of the lingering Dwight Freeney injury saturated the airwaves several days ago. The Saints are favored to win by a majority of the voting public in just six states; their Louisiana home, neighboring Mississippi and in the New England states of Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts and Rhode Island perhaps stirred by Patriots fans who view the Colts as a bitter rival.

Not surprisingly Louisiana is most confident in their Saints (94%) and Indiana in their Colts (88%). In Mississippi 70% of voters also believe the Saints will be victorious on Sunday. Up in Viking-country Minnesota (75%) and North Dakota (70%) seem quite certain about Indianapolis, also perhaps spearheaded from the Vikes disappointing overtime loss to New Orleans in this year’s NFC Championship Game. Over 21,000 voters from outside the U.S. chimed in and took the Colts by a similar percentage (59%) to the American public. Pennsylvania (60%), New Jersey (65%) and Delaware (61%) all have above average confidence in the Colts chances to hoist their second Lombardi Trophy in four seasons.

Saints at Colts (-5.5): Which team wins?

Indianapolis Colts: 55%
New Orleans Saints: 45%

Notes: Football is big among the betters and gamblers as well and this Super Bowl will be no exception. When the game spread shows the Colts as favored by 5.5-points over the Saints 55% of the public still believes in Indy's chances to both win and cover. This is similar to the 58% of the ESPN voting public who think the Colts will win the game “straight up”. However several publications in recent days have dropped the line slightly to -4.5 or -5-points in favor of Indianapolis. Taking this poll again with the more recent game spread in tact may actually reflect a virtually identical total between the two.

Of the 26,575 people who voted across America on the 5.5-line the Colts were favored to “cover” in all but thirteen states. The Saints meanwhile were picked in all of New England, Delaware, Maryland, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Alaska, Mississippi and Louisiana. Two states, Pennsylvania and Wyoming, showed a 50-50% split. Once again confidence soared in each of the team’s home states with 93% in Louisiana confident in the Saints chances to cover the spread and 84% in Indiana thinking the Colts will.

Which team are you rooting for to win the Super Bowl?

New Orleans Saints: 57%
Indianapolis Colts: 43%

Notes: In a near perfect reversal from the question of who voters think will win Super Bowl XLIV a clear majority of the public is rooting for the New Orleans Saints to win. Previous scientific polls from Harris actually show the Colts as consistently one of the most popular teams in the NFL and well ahead of the Saints fan base in terms of size. However in the instance of this match up, the sympathy vote for New Orleans just a few years removed from the Hurricane Katrina disaster and keeping in mind the Colts Super Bowl victory of just three years ago, more are pulling for the Saints. The total from outside the United States hoping for a Saints victory (57%) is identical to the American audience that sizes nearly 200,000 on this particular topic question.

The Colts are the preferred team in ten states; Indiana, neighboring Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, Minnesota, Iowa, the Dakotas, Oklahoma and Utah. 96% in Louisiana are rooting for their Saints whereas 81% in Indiana pull for the Colts. In addition to their home state and bordering Mississippi the Saints are particularly popular throughout New England and Wisconsin. The Colts meanwhile do best in the northern Midwestern states where the Vikings are most popular, Tennessee where Peyton Manning went to college and Georgia perhaps because of the spirited rivalry New Orleans has with the home team Atlanta Falcons. Pennsylvania (60%), Delaware (60%) and New Jersey (55%) all are pulling for the Saints.

Will you watch this year’s halftime performance by the Who? Which of the past five halftime performers was your favorite?

Will watch: 45%
Won’t watch: 55%

The Rolling Stones: 25%
Tom Petty: 22%
Bruce Springsteen: 21%
Prince: 21%
Paul McCartney: 21%

Notes: Lastly we take a look at the impact of the musical Super Bowl halftime show and which recent performers were the favorite. The legendary British rock band the Who will be the halftime the act on Sunday but a majority of viewers might not be tuning in. 55% nationwide according to ESPN polling of nearly 43,000 suggest they’ll either turn the channel, using the time to mingle with party guests or take part in some other activity during halftime. The Who and their performance is most popular throughout the Mid Atlantic and New England states averaging close to a 50-50% split and least desirable in southwestern states like Texas, Utah and Arizona where 63% say they will not be watching.

As far as the halftime performers from recent years are concerned there is an extremely close divide in public opinion of who was the either the best or their personal favorite. The Rolling Stones Super Bowl performance from 2006 ranks number one with 25% of voters declaring it their favorite. The Stones also were considered the best by a plurality in twenty-states and tied in two others. They were most popular in Vermont, Maine, Arizona and Nevada polling at over 30% in each and least popular in Minnesota and Wyoming scoring under 20%. The British rock band’s popularity in the Tri-State area was also a tad sub par with just 23% in Pennsylvania, 22% in Delaware and 20% in New Jersey considering them to be the best act.

Tom Petty (22%), Bruce Springsteen (21%) and Prince (21%) all are similarly divided in terms of popularity. Petty is most popular in thirteen states and tied in one more, Bruce is the “Boss” in eleven states and Prince takes home top honors in an additional six. Petty is best in northwestern states like Montana, Wyoming and North Dakota, whereas Springsteen’s support not surprisingly is regionally strong in the northeast. Bruce does particularly well in his home state of New Jersey (39%), D.C. (32%), Pennsylvania (30%), Delaware (30%) and New York (29%). The "Purple One" meanwhile has a mix of support from around the country that includes strong showings in Hawaii (33%), Alaska (31%), his home state of Minnesota (30%) and southern states Georgia (29%) and Mississippi (29%).

Lagging behind is Paul McCartney who performed twice in this decade, most recently during the Eagles 24-21 loss to the New England Patriots in 2005. The former-Beatle was not the favorite performer in a single state although he does best in Utah (19%), Oklahoma (17%) and South Carolina (16%). McCartney struggles meanwhile in North Dakota (4%), Arkansas (6%) and generates only 8% support in Hawaii, Montana, Wyoming and New Mexico.

My Super Bowl Prediction (for the record): Colts 31, Saints 17

Poll: Latest political trends show most states leaning Democratic yet conservative

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Unaffiliated voters are growing in numbers, the Democrats remain strong at local levels yet conservatives outnumber liberals in every U.S. state.

These finding come compliments of recent studies from Rasmussen Reports and Gallup tracking current partisan trends and the ideological landscape of America in early-2010.

A plurality of adults (35.4%) still refer to themselves as Democrats but that is now the lowest total recorded in more than seven years according to Rasmussen. Each month the organization updates its partisan trends recording ideological shifts amongst Democrats, Republicans and unaffiliated adults. In January of 2009 Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 8.3% nationally and a year earlier their advantage was 5.6%. Now that total is down to 3.1% rebounding somewhat from a 1.5% lead in December that was the narrowest Democratic Party advantage since August of 2005.

Although they’ve made up some ground over the past year it’s not all roses for the Republican Party either. 32.3% of the country now view themselves as Republican and while that total is within an average range for the Party it is only equal to the current total of unaffiliated adults. Also standing at 32.3% unaffiliateds are at their highest level since May of 2007, the last time that they were equal to or exceeded the number of Republicans in the country. The growing displeasure for both major parties may also be reflected in the 65% of voters now holding mainstream or populist social and political views. Rasmussen describes mainstream Americans as leery of both big government and big business and more likely to trust the wisdom of their fellow citizens.

“The American people don’t want to be governed from the left, the right or the
center. The American people want to govern themselves.” – Scott Rasmussen / Rasmussen Reports

Turning our attention to two recent studies by Gallup we take a state by state look at current party identification and political ideologies. Gallup conducted their research through a massive sample size of nearly 354,000 adults nationwide including more than 20,000 interviews in Pennsylvania alone. What they uncovered were slight shifts from 2008 to 2009 favoring Republicans but not enough to offset the clear advantage Democrats hold at state and local levels. The survey measured the number of Americans solidly or leaning toward the Democratic Party at 49%, down from 52% in 2008. Republicans meanwhile gained slightly up to 41% in 2009 from 40% last year.

The District of Columbia who has voted for the Democratic candidate in every Presidential election in its history has nearly 78% affiliating as a Democrat – a margin of 66-percentage points over Republicans. At 54% and holding a 22-point margin Wyoming is the most Republican state in the country. Only five states (Wyoming, Utah, Idaho, Alaska, and Alabama) feature a considerable advantage of better than five-percentage points favoring the Republican Party. On the flip side a whopping 34-states, including the District of Columbia, have greater than a five-point advantage in Democratic affiliation.

In the Tri-State area Delaware ranks strongest for the Democratic Party with a 21% advantage over Republicans. New Jersey also scores high for the Democrats holding an eighteen-point lead over the GOP. Pennsylvania meanwhile gets lumped in closer to the middle of the pack but still offers a twelve-percentage point lead for Democrats over Republicans in the state.

The Democratic advantage in party identification is tempered somewhat by a large ideological lead for conservatives over liberals. As previously mentioned there are no states where liberals outnumber conservatives, although the District of Columbia has a 15% liberal to conservative gap, and in only three states (Vermont, Hawaii, and Massachusetts) are the ideological totals nearly identical.

Conservatives outnumbered liberals 40-21% in 2009 according to Gallup research with an additional 36% identifying as politically moderate. Alabama is both the most conservative state (49.4%) and features the widest disparity (34.6%) between major groupings on the political right and left. The fewest liberals (13.9%) for a state reside in Alabama’s neighbor Mississippi. At 28% Vermont contains the most liberals outside of D.C. and also features the smallest conservative to liberal margin of just 0.8%. Over half of the states in America (26) have conservatives outnumbering liberals by over twenty-percentage points.

Typically Democratic states also tend have more politically moderate adults. Rhode Island, Hawaii, West Virginia, Vermont, Connecticut and Delaware all are composed of moderates by more than 40%. The First State however ranks just 30th on the list of most liberal states (19%) behind Pennsylvania’s 23rd ranking (20%) and New Jersey who is number nine (24.7%).

Two polls show modest gains for Obama following State of the Union address

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Fresh off his State of the Union address last week President Barack Obama has made a modest improvement with voters according to two major polls.

Gallup currently shows the President scoring a 50% approval rating from American adults, the first time he has reached the 50% mark in eleven days. Prior to the State of the Union Obama was at a less than desirable 47% average. Although this is not the first poll taken since his speech last week the three-point “bounce” measured falls in-line with Gallup’s assertion that President’s generally see little impact from their big national addresses. The topic was covered with greater depth in an

article last week.

Rasmussen Reports hails the recent State of the Union address as giving the President a “significant bounce” meanwhile. The polling methodology used by Rasmussen differs somewhat from that of Gallup. First off Rasmussen tracks “likely” voters instead of using a more general pool of nationwide adults to sample like Gallup. Secondly while they both show general approval ratings Rasmussen places a greater emphasis on those who “strongly” approve or disapprove and their net approval index rating reflects that data.

President Obama has struggled for months in the area of strong support against strong opposition according to Rasmussen, but his most recent approval measured at a negative four-percent is the best approval index achieved in over seven-months. Obama’s overall approval rating stands at 49%, down a point from yesterday. The number of those strongly approving of his job performance has shot up eight-points to 35% however. 39% of likely voters still disapprove of the President but the number that do so strongly has decreased by three-points since before his speech last Wednesday night.

Since the beginning of the New Year Gallup has measured President Obama’s approval rating between 47-52% every day. Rasmussen meanwhile has not measured the level of strong opinions in the plus column since last June when Obama was at +2% for the month. The President’s numbers bottomed out in December with a net approval index of -15%. For the now completed month of January Rasmussen tracked a modest up tick of one-percentage point (-14%) for Obama, still far below his peak rating of +23% for the month he entered office last January.

The most recent poll from CBS News conducted a week before the State of the Union address gave the President a 50% approval and 40% disapproval rating amongst adults. CBS also polled on the speech itself and found positive feedback from 83% of viewers on Obama’s performance. More polling from other organizations, perhaps to be released in the coming days, is welcomed if we are to give proper weight and perspective to recent surveys from Gallup and Rasmussen. It will also be worth focusing on those specific pollsters to see if the modest bump the President received from Gallup and the more significant one being measured by Rasmussen is simply the result of statistical noise, a blip on the radar, or part of a growing trend.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / NICK WASS