Poll: Only 7% of baseball fans pick Phillies to win World Series, public critical of McNabb trade

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Just 7% of baseball fans think the Phillies will win their second World Series title in three years this season. Joe Torre is the early favorite to be the new baseball commissioner, Duke is narrowly favored to win their fourth ever NCAA championship and fans react to the Donovan McNabb trade.

With the Major League season underway as of last night Rasmussen Reports surveyed baseball fans on their championship picks and who they would like to see succeed Bud Selig as the league’s commissioner. An additional poll asked adults to predict who will win tonight’s NCAA Championship Game in men’s basketball, as well as share their preferences for either Duke or Butler. Turning the attention to unscientific fan polling on ESPN Sunday’s Donovan McNabb trade from Philadelphia to Washington is being viewed, by and large, as a mistake for the Eagles and an upgrade for the Redskins.

The New York Yankees who defeated the Phillies last season to capture their 27th World Series title are the pick of 29% of MLB fans to win it all again in 2010. Following the “Bronx Bombers” in second place are the Boston Red Sox (17%) who defeated New York 9-7 to open the season last night. Despite not winning a single playoff game in 2009 the popular St. Louis Cardinals are the pick of 11% of baseball fans. The Phillies meanwhile capture just 7% of the public’s confidence in spite of their great success from recent seasons.

Baseball insiders seem to like the Phillies chances of winning it all more than the general pool of big league fans. Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci picked the Phillies to win the World Series in the magazine’s feature article and baseball preview from last week. ESPN the Magazine meanwhile is picking Philadelphia to advance to the “Fall Classic” for the third straight season but lose to the Red Sox in the Series. Of the 36-analysts who made their season predictions on ESPN.com no team was given a better chance to win their division (33-picks), reach the playoffs (34), capture their league’s pennant (20), or win the World Series (11) than the Phillies.

What is particularly interesting about the fairly low percentage of baseball fans thinking Philadelphia will win another title is the lack of confidence coming from Phillies fans themselves. Whereas Yankees (83%) and Red Sox (82%) loyalists are overwhelmingly confident about their team’s chances barely more than half (52%) of Phillies fans think their favorite team will be the last standing this fall. Prior to last season the Boston Red Sox at 22% were the team most predicted to win the World Series. Boston reached the playoffs but they were ousted in the first round by the Los Angeles Angels.

Fewer baseball fans are rooting for the Yankees (21%) to succeed in their quest for back-to-back championships than those who think they will win. 15% are pulling for the Red Sox meanwhile, 12% the Cardinals, 6% for both the Phillies and Minnesota Twins and an additional 5% are rooting for the Atlanta Braves.

In another polling done by Rasmussen on the topic of baseball 30% of fans would like to see former player and current manager Joe Torre succeed the aging Bud Selig as MLB commissioner. Former home run king and baseball legend Hank Aaron is the next most popular choice at 23%. Former President George W. Bush (14%) also receives consideration. Bush was the former owner of the Texas Rangers. Senator George Mitchell who released a report in 2007 detailing his 21-month investigation of steroids in baseball is the pick of 8% of the public for the job. Lastly Hall of Fame journalist and longtime ESPN baseball analyst Peter Gammons receives 6% of the support from fans.

Switching gears to college basketball Friday polling from Rasmussen showed that the Duke Blue Devils were favored to win the NCAA Championship Game even before they defeated West Virginia to reach the Finals. Duke earned the confidence of 31% of the public while their opponent Butler attracted 13%. Recently ousted West Virginia came in second with 28% meanwhile and Michigan State, the other defeated Final Four team, was third with 15%. The Duke-Butler matchup does represent the most attractive final game scenario involving any of the four teams. 33% would like to see Butler, a relatively low number five seed in the tournament, come away as winners. Duke earns the support of 24% of the public while 18% were previously cheering for either West Virginia or Michigan State to win the championship.

Lastly we head to ESPN.com and check out some fan polling on the subject of the recent Donovan McNabb trade from the Eagles to their division rival Washington Redskins.

Over 53,000 votes were cast as of earlier today on the question of who is the best team in the NFC East. Even with the McNabb acquisition by Washington a large plurality (46%) believes the Dallas Cowboys, last season’s division champions, are still the team to beat. The Redskins who finished in last place in 2009 have spring boarded into second position at 24%. The New York Giants are in third place meanwhile attracting 17% of the vote with the Eagles lingering in last at 13% despite tying the Cowboys with eleven-wins last season. The Redskins were the most popular choice in the states of Maryland, Virginia and Wyoming as well as Washington D.C. The Cowboys meanwhile were the top choice in every other state including Pennsylvania where, not surprisingly, the Eagles did their personal best attracting 33% of the early predictions.

In other polling a whopping 80% of the sports public on ESPN thinks the Eagles will come to regret their decision to trade McNabb to a division rival. There was no question that asked whether the Eagles would regret trading McNabb in general as it appeared before the weekend that the out of conference Oakland Raiders were the front runners to obtain the veteran quarterback. Personally McNabb is viewed as a borderline Hall of Fame QB by most. 39% believe him to be good enough for induction to Canton already but 43% thinks he needs to make at least one more Super Bowl appearance to solidify his position as an all-time great. Just 19% don’t consider him Hall worthy either way.

Kevin Kolb will take over the reigns as the Eagles starting QB heading into the 2010 season. Kolb has already had periodic success playing in place of an injured McNabb in the past but much of the sports world remains skeptical as to whether the Eagles can continue to have success under his guidance. Envisioning the rest of his career in Philadelphia 39% of the public actually believes Kolb will never be able to lead the Eagles back to the postseason. 37% think he more or less will match McNabb’s recent production as having “minor postseason successes”. Just one in four (25%) think the Eagles will eventually reach the conference championship or Super Bowl again so long as the new QB Kolb is at the helm.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / SHARON ELLMAN

Poll: Job creation is best in the south and out west, underemployment remains high nationally

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Following today’s Labor Department report of 162,000 new jobs created in the month of March Gallup has released some survey data indicating what areas of the country are most at work.

While the positive new figures were hailed by the White House today as a sign that economic conditions are turning for the better Gallup is quick to point out that there is something of an illusory effect when its comes to job creation data. Underemployment not unemployment may be the best barometer for tracking the current state of the national job force. For the month of March the underemployment rate as measured by Gallup ticked up half a percentage-point to 20.3%. This means that more than one of every five American adults is currently either out of work or is relegated to a part-time position while seeking full-time work. The underemployment figure as reported through a sample size of 20,000 responders each month has remained fairly steady since late last year and dwarfs the more nationally acknowledged 9.7% unemployment statistic.

The Gallup survey also asked 16,778 U.S. employees to describe the hiring and firing activities of their current employer. Reponses were categories by those who saw an expansion of the work forces in their company, a reduction in the number of jobs, or an essentially unchanged number of those hiring and letting go over the past month. National data suggests that companies are again hiring at a slightly greater rate than letting go. 26% according to the survey are in a hiring phase against 24% of companies who are cutting jobs. This an improvement year over year from last January when those totals were essentially reversed, but a steep decline from January of 2008 when 40% of companies were said to be hiring against just 14% reducing their workforces.

Jobs of course are not evenly distributed throughout all regions of the United States. Manufacturing exports and a slight rebound in the housing market are thought to be the main factors in a sudden improvement in the job market out west. For the first time since November of 2008 more companies are said to be hiring (26%) than firing (24%) in the region. It is also a notable improvement from January when job creation was decidedly negative to the tune of a 21-29% hiring to firing rate in the American west.

Despite impressive gains made by many western states the south remains the best region for employment in the country. Increased oil prices have steadily improved the region’s fortunes over the past few months up to its current 28% hiring rate against 23% letting go. Lack of consistency meanwhile defines the job picture in the Midwest of recent months. An improved manufacturing sector has helped keep the overall market stabalize in the region yet the Midwest still barely breaks even at a 24-23% hiring to firing rate.

Even with renewed confidence on Wall Street the east continues to lag behind the rest of the country in job creation. Slower population increases in certain northern states could play an important factor in the lack of positive data coming out of the region. Since late last year the number of adults reporting their companies are letting employees go has been surging upward. The current data suggest an even number are now hiring (25%) as firing (25%) which is a noticeable decline from September 2009 figures that had the east at 27-23% creation to reduction in jobs.

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The March job creation data, which was the highest in three years, can only be viewed positively by a nation in the midst of prolonged economic downturn and thirsting for work. Yet as is the case with most economic indicators over the past year and half modest gains are often met with tepid enthusiasm. The White House has publically stated that it does not envision the overall unemployment rate to drop under 9% before the end of the year and the underemployment figures should too remain high for the rest of 2010. All regions of the country are feeling the effects of the poor job market but the recent upswing in the west and stabilizing figures from the south offer hope that a broader economic turnaround is underway.

Poll: Early numbers suggest Obama could be in tight race for reelection in 2012

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President Obama’s popularity with the electorate continues to teeter between slightly positive or marginally negative approval ratings. Cumulatively his landmark health care reform bill has attracted a more positive public response since it was passed a week and a half ago, yet it is still viewed negatively by pluralities – sometimes majorities – of Americans.

Turning our attention away from the ongoing health care debate for a moment however some interesting March polling sizes up the President’s chances of reelection. While any polling on a topic that doesn’t come about for another year and half has to be labeled as preliminary, at best, a few surveys have tackled the subject head on.

Obama’s challenging first fourteen months in office is reflected in a recent CNN / Opinion Research poll. 935-registered voters nationwide were asked who they would vote for if the upcoming 2012 election were being held today. President Obama attracted 47% of the vote with a generic Republican candidate in the slight lead at 48%. Four-percent of Americans claimed to be supporting a candidate from neither major party and in something of surprise almost no one (1%) placed themselves in the undecided column.

A larger poll of 1,907 registered voters conducted by Quinnipiac just prior to the passage of health care legislation found a similar result. 40% favored Obama and 41% a Republican challenger. Allowing for greater nuance the Quinnipiac poll found that 9% of voters would base their decision on the specific Republican candidate and another 9% remain uncertain. One decidedly negative area for the President was the survey response as to whether Obama deserves to be reelected. Just 40% say he deserves to remain in office past 2012 against 48% who disagree. Another 11% are unsure.

Of course should Obama receive the expected Democratic nomination for President in 2012 he won’t be running against a party but rather a specific candidate. Although none as yet have announced their intentions to run for President there is any number of assumed would-be Republicans setting their sights on the White House. For that research we turn to three polls taken between March 10-20th; Public Policy Polling, Harris Interactive and the Clarus Research Group.

The Clarus Research Group survey of 1,050 registered voters shows the President leading all five prospective GOP candidates and four of the five by comfortable, for now, margins. The exception is against former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney where Obama’s lead is a modest 45-41%. Romney is widely viewed as the current frontrunner in a stable of several legitimate Republican possibilities for 2012. His success in other polling, both against Obama and other GOP candidates, points to this fact. Elsewhere in the Clarus survey however the current President does fairly well. Obama leads former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee 47-39%, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush 49-37% and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich 48-36%. Former Alaskan Governor and 2008 Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin trails Obama by a wide 52-34% margin.

As is usually the case President Obama does best when polling samples are expanded to include all adults. This is the case with the Harris Interactive survey of over 2,300 adults nationwide. Obama leads Mitt Romney by a 46-39% margin in this instance although his lead against Sarah Palin, while still large, is a slightly less commanding 52-35%.

Returning our focus to registered voter sampling the latest from Public Policy Polling has the most negative figures for the President to date. PPP shows Obama tied at 44% with Romney, with a slight lead of 46-44% on Huckabee and a far more modest 49-41% advantage over Palin. Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, who may be viewed as something of a dark horse candidate at this stage, is also included and shown to be trailing the President by a margin of 45-34%. Last month PPP also showed lesser known South Dakota junior Senator John Thune well behind the President to the tune of 46-28%.

Whether or not polling such as this ought to be taken seriously seven months before a crucial midterm and some 31-months prior to the next Presidential election is debatable. With the passage of sweeping health care legislation and immediate public reaction dominating the headlines currently it may also not be the best time to test the waters of a near boiling electorate. Still there are reasons for both comfort and concern for President Obama as the inevitable battle to replace him in 2012 gets underway.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / ALEX BRANDON

Analysis: Thirteen states that have come to define the trends of recent Presidential elections

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It is more than thirty months away and an important midterm election stands in between. Yet it’s a safe bet that members of the Democratic and Republican parties are already sizing up the likely electorate for 2012.

Recent elections have shown us that barring landslide conditions the electoral map is more and more defined by a handful of competitive states in each election known to most of us as battleground or “swing” states. But while certain large battleground territories such as Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and Michigan seem to grab most of the headlines it’s a handful of other states that could be viewed as equally important.

Democratic Presidents have been fairly successful since the 1990s. In five elections dating back to 1992 Democrats have received popular vote victories in all but George W. Bush’s narrow reelection win in 2004 over John Kerry. Of course Bush was also the outright victor in 2000 when the Republican Governor controversially defeated then sitting Democratic Vice President Al Gore in the Electoral College despite coming up short in the national popular vote tally.

Cumulatively the Democrats have won the last five elections by 19.37 percentage-points. That breaks down on average to a modest 3.87% margin of victory per-election. Whether it’s fair to assess the current political landscape by analyzing the electorate of years past is debatable. To be fair the success of Democratic President’s Barack Obama and Bill Clinton in certain otherwise GOP strongholds indicates that both the popularity of a specific candidate and the circumstances around an election arguably has as much to do with the end result as that of overall electoral trends. Yet it’s obvious that the Clinton victories of the 90s and the Republican opposition that strengthened around certain parts of the country helped shape the current polarization were are now accustomed to seeing on the electoral map.

Prior to 1992 “blue” states and “red” states, that we have since coined as those leaning heavily in the favor of the Democratic and Republican parties respectively, had no specific association with a region. In 1988 for example Democrat Michael Dukakis came out on the losing end of the national popular vote by 7.71% while taking home just 111-electoral votes against incumbent Vice President George H.W. Bush. Dukakis succeeded in winning eight states that have since gone “blue” in each successive election up through 2008. He also won West Virginia, for good measure, a state that had a strong Democratic tradition through the early-90s but since 2000 has voted heavily in favor of the Republican candidate for President. On the flip side Dukakis also lost four states (California, Connecticut, Maine and Vermont) that have become Democratic strongholds since 1992.

The Clinton-years seem responsible for shifting our current outlook of the electoral map from a state by state analysis to a more regional focus. Including the District of Columbia there are 19-states that have gone for Democratic Presidential candidates in at least five consecutive elections dating back to 1992. In most instances those newly minted “blue” states have done so by comfortable margins. In terms of current electoral distribution those 19-states also add up to 248-votes, or just 22 shy of what is needed to secure the Presidency. No wonder then the campaign focus of modern Democratic candidates has been to secure their own territory while picking up a couple of key battleground or “swing-states” along the way.

Al Gore and John Kerry were unsuccessful in doing so in 2000 or 2004 as George W. Bush and the Republicans blockaded them with heavily supportive districts of their own while protecting territories where the polls were only closely in their favor. The GOP has 13-states that have all gone “red” in their favor since ’92 but that territory only provides them 96-electoral votes. There are 6-states however that have voted Republican for President in four of five elections, bringing that electoral total up to 163-votes. Capturing these 19-states helps the GOP to a clearer path toward electoral victory.

What is left then are 13-states that accumulate the decisive 127-electoral votes that have decided each recent Presidential election. Can we predict the likelihood of future election outcomes by tracking the tendencies of each remaining “swing" state? Just perhaps. Below is a list of each battleground state and its average swing towards one party or the other in the last five Presidential elections. Remember the national average over that period is 3.87 percentage-points in favor of the Democratic Party.

State: Arkansas

Electoral Votes (2000 census): 6

Democratic wins: 1992, ‘96

Republican wins: 2000, ’04, 08

Democratic Margin: - 0.39%

Republican Margin: + 0.39%

National Average: + 4.26% (GOP)

Electoral Designation: Leans Republican

Notes: Arkansas voted heavily against then Senator Obama in the last Presidential election and heading into 2012 it should probably be viewed as a safe “red” state for Republicans. Overall the state has just barely favored GOP candidates over the past five Presidential election but has exceeded the national trend favoring Democrats over the time period by better than four percentage-points.

State: Colorado

Electoral Votes (2000 census): 9

Democratic wins: 1992, ‘08

Republican wins: 1996, ’00, ‘04

Democratic Margin: - 0.24%

Republican Margin: + 0.24%

National Average: + 4.11% (GOP)

Electoral Designation: Leans Republican

Notes: Colorado hasn’t been decided by double-digits in favor of either party since Ronald Reagan’s landslide victory of 1984. In 2008 Barack Obama won the state’s nine-electoral votes by nearly nine percentage-points. Republicans remain very competitive here however. Overall they have a slight edge since 1992 as the GOP has won there three of five times. Against the national average they also have a Republican leaning tendency.

State: Florida

Electoral Votes (2000 census): 27

Democratic wins: 1996, ‘08

Republican wins: 1992, ’00, ‘04

Democratic Margin: + 1.60%

Republican Margin: - 1.60%

National Average: + 2.27% (GOP)

Electoral Designation: Barely Republican

Notes: One of the classic “swing” states is also the most sought after due to its electoral rich 27-votes. Florida was won by Barack Obama in 2008 and by Bill Clinton in 1996 with the Bush’s combining to take the other three. Three of the last five elections have been decided by fewer than three percentage-points in the “Sunshine” State including George W. Bush’s controversial victory there in 2000 that handed him the Presidency.

State: Iowa

Electoral Votes (2000 census): 7

Democratic wins: 1992, ’96, ’00, ‘08

Republican wins: 2004

Democratic Margin: + 5.10%

Republican Margin: - 5.10%

National Average: + 1.23% (DEM)

Electoral Designation: Barely Democrat

Notes: Iowa has actually gone “blue” for Democrats in four of the past five elections as well as for Michael Dukakis in 1988. It retains its designation as a battleground state because its margin of victory in some of these elections has been razor thin, although Obama did carry it by nearly ten-points in 2008. Iowa leans only slightly to the Democratic left after it’s compared to the party’s national average of late.

State: Kentucky

Electoral Votes (2000 census): 8

Democratic wins: 1992, ‘96

Republican wins: 2000, ’04, 08

Democratic Margin: - 9.41%

Republican Margin: + 9.41%

National Average: + 13.28% (GOP)

Electoral Designation: Solid Republican

Notes: Kentucky makes our list of battleground states by way of Bill Clinton’s narrow victories there in 1992 and ’96. Since that time the state has gone for Republican candidates by wide margins and heads into 2012 as a dependable state for the GOP. In the instance of a southern Democratic running for office, as Bill Clinton was in the early-90s or based off of Jimmy Carter’s success in 1976 and ’80, Kentucky could still be competitive.

State: Louisiana

Electoral Votes (2000 census): 9

Democratic wins: 1992, ‘96

Republican wins: 2000, ’04, 08

Democratic Margin: - 4.83%

Republican Margin: + 4.83%

National Average: + 8.70% (GOP)

Electoral Designation: Likely Republican

Notes: Similar to Kentucky the state of Louisiana has been drifting aimlessly away from the Democrats since 1996 after two successive victories by Bill Clinton. President Obama got beat up there in 2008 as did John Kerry four years earlier. Statistically Louisiana is still somewhat in play for the Democrats but it would probably take a popular moderate southerner to turn it from “red” to “blue” anytime in the near future.

State: Missouri

Electoral Votes (2000 census): 11

Democratic wins: 1992, ‘96

Republican wins: 2000, ’04, 08

Democratic Margin: + 1.16%

Republican Margin: - 1.16%

National Average: + 2.71% (GOP)

Electoral Designation: Leans Republican

Notes: Missouri lost its bellwether status after voting for losing Republican candidate John McCain by less than 4,000 votes in 2008. This was in spite of the fact that Barack Obama won the national popular vote by well over seven percentage-points. Such a loss has to give Democrats some pause heading in 2012. However their overall performance in the “Show Me” state over the past five elections still makes this highly competitive territory.

State: Nevada

Electoral Votes (2000 census): 6

Democratic wins: 1992, ’96, ‘08

Republican wins: 2000, ‘04

Democratic Margin: +2.00%

Republican Margin: - 2.00%

National Average: + 1.87% (GOP)

Electoral Designation: Barely Republican

Notes: In 2008 President Obama ended several years of close elections by dominating John McCain in Nevada. His 12.5% victory in the state has it trending toward the Democrats come 2012. Bill Clinton won closely here in the 90s and George W. Bush did so as well in the 2000s. Its close margin that slightly favors the Democrats in recent election is a wash when based against their national averages over that period giving the GOP the narrow edge.

State: New Hampshire

Electoral Votes (2000 census): 4

Democratic wins:

Republican wins: 2000

Democratic Margin: + 4.18%

Republican Margin: - 4.18%

National Average: + 0.31 (DEM)

Electoral Designation: Toss-Up

Notes: New Hampshire is included on our list of key “swing” states despite the fact that it has gone “blue” for Democratic candidates in four of five elections since 1992. No candidate since that time has won the state by more than ten percentage-points and New Hampshire continues to be the only true battleground state in New England. Obama won here easily in 2008 but all arrows point to another close race in 2012.

State: New Mexico

Electoral Votes (2000 census): 5

Democratic wins: 1992, ’96, ’00, ‘08

Republican wins: 2004

Democratic Margin: + 6.06

Republican Margin: - 6.06%

National Average: + 2.19% (DEM)

Electoral Designation: Barely Democratic

Notes: Barack Obama’s landslide victory over John McCain in New Mexico in 2008 of more than fifteen percentage-points belies a competitive modern history here. Bill Clinton won the state twice in 90s by modest margins but New Mexico was decided by just 366-votes in 2000 and fewer than 6,000 votes in 2004. Democrats have done well here overall in recent years but New Mexico is still very much up for grabs.

State: Ohio

Electoral Votes (2000 census): 20

Democratic wins: 1992, ’96, ‘08

Republican wins: 2000, ‘04

Democratic Margin: + 1.43%

Republican Margin: - 1.43%

National Average: + 2.44% (GOP)

Electoral Designation: Barely Republican

Notes: Since 1964 no candidate has won the office of President without carrying the state of Ohio. The “Buckeye” State has been decided by no more than 6.36 percentage-points since 1992 and was a key victory in George W. Bush’s election wins in 2000 and 2004. Still Democrats have done well in Ohio winning it in three of the past dive Presidential elections. They are slightly ahead of the Republicans in margin of victory over that period and slightly behind them when balanced against their national averages.

State: Tennessee

Electoral Votes (2000 census): 11

Democratic wins: 1992, ‘96

Republican wins: 2000, ’04, 08

Democratic Margin: - 5.23%

Republican Margin: + 5.23%

National Average: + 9.10% (GOP)

Electoral Designation: Likely Republican

Notes: Tennessee is one of a handful of southern states that continues to drift away from Democratic candidates in recent years. Barack Obama faired worse here in 2008 than John Kerry did in 2004 despite winning the national vote by a comfortable margin. Tennessee was Al Gore’s home state but that didn’t keep him from suffering a somewhat embarrassing defeat in 2000. As Vice President he faired somewhat better there in 1992 and ’96 along side of Bill Clinton.

State: West Virginia

Electoral Votes (2000 census): 5

Democratic wins: 1992, ‘96

Republican wins: 2000, ’04, 08

Democratic Margin: - 0.90%

Republican Margin: + 0.90%

National Average: + 4.77% (GOP)

Electoral Designation: Leans Republican

Notes: Between 1932 and 1996 West Virginia went for a Democratic candidate for President in all but three elections. On the backend of the era it went strongly for southerner Bill Clinton. Starting in 2000 though the state began trending heavily to the right and is now considered a likely Republican pickup for 2012. Barack Obama lost her by over thirteen-points in 2008 although recent history points to West Virginia still being obtainable for the Democrats moving forward.